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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/vladimir-putin-russia-syria-216609
Russia's intervention has failed to gain much on the battlefield, raising hopes that diplomacy will make more progress.
Quote:As Secretary of State John Kerry heads to Moscow next week to meet with Vladimir Putin, U.S. and Israeli officials say Putin's intervention in Syria is showing slower results than the Russian president had hoped, possibly making Putin more willing to cooperate with U.S. efforts to settle Syria's civil war.
Kerry has sidestepped the issue, declining to answer a reporter who asked during a Paris news conference this week whether he thinks Putin regrets his military intervention there. But speaking privately, administration officials offer a more candid take on the Kremlin’s mood. “The Russians thought they would make a lot more progress on the ground fast,” said one official. “They haven't made really any... It’s measured by low-digit kilometers at the most.”
Putin had hoped his late September intervention would kick off a decisive three-month offensive producing major territorial gains for the Syrian regime, according to Israeli defense minister Moshe Ya'alon.
“The whole idea of the Russian presence in Syria is to launch an offensive,” Ya’alon told the Brookings Institution’s annual Saban Forum on Friday.
“It seems to be a failure.”
Both the U.S. and Israel oppose Putin’s Syria’s intervention and have an incentive to spin it negatively. But some independent experts see trouble signs for the Russian president, including a surprisingly stiff response from Syrian rebel fighters.
“The Syrian regime has had tactical gains, but Russian air strikes have not been a game-changer in terms of allowing the Syrian army to move in” and hold territory, said Chris Kozak, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank that closely tracks the Syrian battlefield.
Kozak added that Russia had achieved its "immediate priority" of blunting rebel momentum and preserving the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. “The balance has clearly shifted and the rebels are on the defensive,” he said.
Even so, Obama officials increasingly offer a “told-you-so” line towards Putin’s intervention, which caught the White House off guard when it began in late September. At the time, Obama warned that Putin risked getting caught in a quagmire abroad while courting terrorism at home. Since then, a Russian airliner departing from Egypt was downed by a bomb, killing all 224 aboard. In late November, Turkey infuriated Moscow by shooting down a Russian Su-24 bomber that it said had crossed into its airspace. Rebels on the ground killed a Russian pilot and a Russian marine and destroyed a Russian helicopter participating in a rescue mission.
Now Putin confronts a stalemated battlefield and, according to some sources, tensions with his allies on the ground in a Syrian war theater that U.S. officials liken to a concert mosh pit.
Russian planes and cruise missiles began striking Syrian rebel forces in late September to buck up Assad, a longtime Moscow ally. Days later, Assad’s rag-tag army began a ground offensive to reclaim territory from rebels suffering Russian attacks. (Russia has mostly targeted rebel fighters not affiliated with the Islamic State, also known as ISIL, because the former pose a greater near-term threat to regime-held territory.) The Syrians were assisted by some 2,000 Iranian-led fighters, including religious militias and a small number of troops and commanders from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
But that ground offensive has mostly sputtered, thanks to what sources called poor coordination with Syrian and Iranian forces, leaving the battlefield map little changed.
Western sources said there are indications that Iran—which has taken significant casualties including the deaths of several senior IRGC commanders—has withdrawn more than half of its forces in a sign of frustration—and perhaps mounting tension with Moscow over strategy.
Officials said Putin’s own frustration with the battlefield effectiveness of Assad's forces and their allies on the ground helps explain his willingness to join peace talks that have convened twice in Vienna this fall. Obama and Kerry hope that an agreement among the many countries that are party to the conflict—including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey—will begin a process that removes Assad from power, something they call a prerequisite to ending the wider Syrian conflict and allowing for the defeat of ISIL.
“The lack of significant military progress by pro-regime forces only emphasizes the failure of Assad's leadership, which explains why Putin has been so willing to publicly back the idea of Assad's departure as part of a political settlement,” said one U.S. intelligence official.
Kerry hopes to discuss those topics with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov when he goes to to Moscow, the latest in a stepped-up pace of meetings between the two countries: Putin and Obama held two informal meetings in November and a formal session at the United Nations in late September. That suggests that an administration debate about whether to isolate or engage the Russian leader diplomatically has tilted decisively toward the latter option.
Kerry will also cajole Russia to join another round of the Syria peace talks the Obama administration wants to convene in New York City on December 18. On Tuesday, Russia's U.N. envoy said more preparatory work needed to be done before they will agree to such a meeting.
Despite the talk of setbacks for Putin in his Syria campaign, some Russia experts were doubtful that the Russian president is breaking much of a sweat. "He's got plenty more leash before he runs into the brick wall that a lot of Western observers believe is waiting for him," said Matthew Rojanksy, director of the Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank.
U.S. officials, who have repeatedly been surprised by Putin's actions in Syria and Ukraine, don't rule out the possibility that the Russian president may escalate his fight. Speaking to Russian military officials on November 20, Putin hinted at "next phases" in his campaign there, saying they had achieved early objectives but adding, "that is not enough to cleanse Syria of rebels and terrorists and to protect Russians from possible terrorist attacks."
Rojansky said that if Putin is in a sour mood, it is not over the Syrian battlefield but the Turkish shootdown of his plane, as well as last week's announcement that NATO is inviting Montenegro to join the alliance. Putin has called NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe a threat to Russia. And on Tuesday, Russia's former president and current prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, said Turkey's action amounted to an act of war.
"There will be reactions to both those things," Rojanksy said. "I can't tell you what they will be. But they will be serious."
Cue the fanboys... 
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Well if we stopped trying to arm and fund the free Syrian army then it wouldn't be a quagmire.
Assad should stay in power. We are on the wrong side of this.
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(12-14-2015, 03:55 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Well if we stopped trying to arm and fund the free Syrian army then it wouldn't be a quagmire.
Assad should stay in power. We are on the wrong side of this.
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/30/reports-russian-airstrikes-not-targeting-isis/
Russia isn't even attacking ISIS. They're attacking Assad's enemies. Assad wasn't attacking ISIS, either. Largely he ignored it and was fighting his opposition, which allowed ISIS to recruit people thanks to Assad's tactics.
So, what you're suggesting is we need to keep Assad, who helped foster ISIS.
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(12-14-2015, 03:55 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Well if we stopped trying to arm and fund the free Syrian army then it wouldn't be a quagmire.
Assad should stay in power. We are on the wrong side of this.
Guys, let's all be libertarians and support the authoritarian government!
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(12-14-2015, 11:38 AM)Benton Wrote: http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/30/reports-russian-airstrikes-not-targeting-isis/
Russia isn't even attacking ISIS. They're attacking Assad's enemies. Assad wasn't attacking ISIS, either. Largely he ignored it and was fighting his opposition, which allowed ISIS to recruit people thanks to Assad's tactics.
So, what you're suggesting is we need to keep Assad, who helped foster ISIS.
All the groups there need Isis to help their current aspirations. Russia needs Isis to justify the fight vs the FSA to help Assad. Iran needs Isis to look like the good guys for once. USA needs Isis to justify arming the FSA to remove Assad so they can cater to the Saudi's.
Isis is the enemy that everyone needs and that no one wants to wipe out just yet until they do other things that help themselves.
And yes keep Assad . We don't need another government falling into the hands of the Muslim brotherhood.
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(12-14-2015, 11:57 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Guys, let's all be libertarians and support the authoritarian government!
Never said Assad was a great guy. But destabilizing the region even further is a mistake. We will have another Egypt or Libya. Thankfully the military overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and now keeps that country secular.
Are you against a secular government in these countries? Or would you prefer a religious based government?
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(12-14-2015, 12:48 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: All the groups there need Isis to help their current aspirations. Russia needs Isis to justify the fight vs the FSA to help Assad. Iran needs Isis to look like the good guys for once. USA needs Isis to justify arming the FSA to remove Assad so they can cater to the Saudi's.
Isis is the enemy that everyone needs and that no one wants to wipe out just yet until they do other things that help themselves.
And yes keep Assad . We don't need another government falling into the hands of the Muslim brotherhood.
http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/syria-and-saudi-end-tariff-war
Quote:Still Saudi Arabia remained the largest single Arab investor in Syria, a position embodied by the huge US$100 million (Dh367m) Saudi-owned Four Seasons hotel that towers over Damascus. According to unofficial figures, the $750m of annual Saudi investment in Syria for 2007 grew to $1 billion in 2009.
...
However, some major Saudi investors either scaled back their involvement or decided not to follow through on expansion plans. A manager with a leading Saudi construction firm said, on condition of anonymity, that as a result of the feud dozens of companies froze investments or mothballed projects already underway in Syria. That meant the additional foreign capital so desperately needed by Damascus - billions of dollars over the coming decade if the economy is to remain afloat - did not materialise.
Ostensibly, this has now changed. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia met Bashar Assad, the president of Syria, last month, re-establishing diplomatic relations. In the latest step, Mahdi Dakhlallah was sworn in as the new Syrian ambassador to the kingdom on October 25. And the tax war over ceramics and olive oil has ended, the tariffs abolished - a small, yet concrete symbol of improved ties between Syria and Saudi.
It's an older link, but it's still the same. The Saudis don't care much about Assad one way or the other. What they care about is ending the fighting. Their investments in Syria don't pay off if they're gassing people. But I do agree as far as Russia goes, ISIS doesn't matter to them, they only need Syria's geography. And keeping Assad in power allows them to do that.
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(12-14-2015, 01:03 PM)Benton Wrote: http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/syria-and-saudi-end-tariff-war
It's an older link, but it's still the same. The Saudis don't care much about Assad one way or the other. What they care about is ending the fighting. Their investments in Syria don't pay off if they're gassing people. But I do agree as far as Russia goes, ISIS doesn't matter to them, they only need Syria's geography. And keeping Assad in power allows them to do that.
I should have clarified . Saudi Arabia wants that pipeline. And the only way they beat the Russians to it is of Assad is gone and the Muslim brotherhood/FSA takes over.
That pipeline is critical for both. Would give The Russians control of both major pipelines into Europe which would be massive for their economy. Obviously we and others don't want them to have that boost so we help the the so. Called rebels.
Just depends on what pill you want to swallow. Russia getting both pipelines to Europe or SA getting one and Russia having one. Personally I think it's easier to deal with the Russians than the anyone in the Middle East. They do not fight on religious reasons whereas the ME people do.
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(12-14-2015, 12:50 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Never said Assad was a great guy. But destabilizing the region even further is a mistake. We will have another Egypt or Libya. Thankfully the military overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and now keeps that country secular.
Are you against a secular government in these countries? Or would you prefer a religious based government?
I believe you said "we're on the wrong side". We should be sided with the authoritarian leader.
The religious part is irrelevant. A democratic theocracy still trumps a secular authoritarian regime.
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(12-14-2015, 04:11 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I believe you said "we're on the wrong side". We should be sided with the authoritarian leader.
The religious part is irrelevant. A democratic theocracy still trumps a secular authoritarian regime.
Ok which side should we take. Secular authoritarian gov or non secular authoritarian gov?
Obviously there is no easy choice. But a secular government keeps the senseless killing to a minimum . Egypt was a mess under a non secular gov.
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Now if only anything else ended up like Obama said it would.
“History teaches that grave threats to liberty often come in times of urgency, when constitutional rights seem too extravagant to endure.”-Thurgood Marshall
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(12-14-2015, 04:20 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Ok which side should we take. Secular authoritarian gov or non secular authoritarian gov?
Obviously there is no easy choice. But a secular government keeps the senseless killing to a minimum . Egypt was a mess under a non secular gov.
The opposition extends beyond the Muslim Brotherhood, something I know you don't want to acknowledge. While I do not support getting into the fight, I disagree that we're on the wrong side if we supply aide to the side seeking a more democratic solution to the Syrian government.
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(12-14-2015, 05:04 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: The opposition extends beyond the Muslim Brotherhood, something I know you don't want to acknowledge. While I do not support getting into the fight, I disagree that we're on the wrong side if we supply aide to the side seeking a more democratic solution to the Syrian government.
I wish they could handle a democratic and secular solution. But that region just can't seem to handle that... It would be nice to not have to support a dictator but it's all these people seem to understand. When left to their own devices we get a mess. Maybe someday they can handle a secular democratically elected gov.
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(12-14-2015, 06:58 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: I wish they could handle a democratic and secular solution. But that region just can't seem to handle that... It would be nice to not have to support a dictator but it's all these people seem to understand. When left to their own devices we get a mess. Maybe someday they can handle a secular democratically elected gov.
Syria was pretty secular for a Middle Eastern nation. They just needed more democracy. You're really compromising your proclaimed values by stating that we need to back authoritarian governments because you believe this region cannot handle democracy.
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(12-14-2015, 10:10 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Syria was pretty secular for a Middle Eastern nation. They just needed more democracy. You're really compromising your proclaimed values by stating that we need to back authoritarian governments because you believe this region cannot handle democracy.
I know I am.... Wish it didn't have to be this way... Last time we let them have a go.... We got all the killing in Egypt. For now.... Assad is needed because the region is already on fire. No need to throw more gasoline on it ...
Just don't think they are ready to live that way peacefully.
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(12-15-2015, 10:11 AM)GMDino Wrote: http://yournewswire.com/is-president-putin-a-time-traveller/
Seriously, the cult of personality around this guy is approaching North Korea status.
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(12-15-2015, 01:58 AM)StLucieBengal Wrote: I know I am.... Wish it didn't have to be this way... Last time we let them have a go.... We got all the killing in Egypt. For now.... Assad is needed because the region is already on fire. No need to throw more gasoline on it ...
Just don't think they are ready to live that way peacefully.
Uh, wasn't Assad in power when all this killing in Syria started?
It makes no sense to claim if we keep him in power the killing will end. His being in power is what started the killing there.
Or are you suggesting that the US actually help Assad kill the rebels who oppose him. . . . . in order to end the killing?
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