What If Bengals O Line is Great in 2024

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(Yesterday, 05:07 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Burrow does love the Shotgun, but we saw how good him and the Offense was against the 49ers and Burrow saw how well Browning
did in his absence running the Offense under Center more. It is less predictable and helps the O-line with the QB under Center.


Spot on as usual Sunset.


Nice post KillerGoose. Having the worst rushing attack sure didn't help and when your OL is always playing on their heels in the Shotgun
not much good can come from it. Most of us have heard the coaches talking about Burrow being under Center more which is great news 
as they aren't just ignoring it, same with Burrow. He saw how well Browning ran the Offense and how our running game improved as the
year went on.

I fully understand the reasoning and benefits of going under center. However, listing the benefits/reasoning to do it is different than sharing evidence that that change is as imminent as you all seem to believe. 

Every year that Burrow has been our QB and Taylor calling plays, it has been extremely gun-heavy. Please, point me in the direction of the coaches talking about Burrow being under center more. I've googled, and absolutely nothing comes up. 

“I think we’re gonna dictate that [tempo] a little more this year. I’m excited about the pressure we’re going to put on defenses with our style of offense this year, I think it’ll be exciting to watch. I think with the personnel that we have this year, we will be able to do a lot more with personnel groupings, putting different people in different spots in and doing a lot of different things as far as eye candy and making teams adjust their personnel based on ours,”


Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher isn’t fully buying into the chatter that the offense will look wildly different next season. Pitcher says the level of changes might be overstated.

Our core offense is our core offense. We're going to do what we do," Burrow said.

You seem to have hope that the offense goes in that direction, but again, based on our history with Burrow + Taylor and lack of evidence in that change from coaches/Burrow interviews, I'm not sure I'm buying that.

[higgy100]

(Yesterday, 04:35 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You act like Burrow is a statue, but he has ran a decent amount when healthy.
The most designed runs + scrambles that Burrow had in 2022 was the same number that Mahomes had last year, 75.
Both were season highs for each of them.

Now if you are talking about scrambling around but still passing the ball, I dunno if there's a site that tracks that to be able to compare.
However, from what I can recall off the top of my head for games, Burrow is not one of the least scrambling QBs.

I'd put Burrow as more of a scrambler than the likes of Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford just to name a few.

Look, you're a smart guy and good poster but please don't compare these 2 QB's when it comes to scrambling and evading sacks. Burrow his first 2 years did himself no favors as he sat in the pocket way too long waiting for plays to develop and when he did move it was laterally and just getting rid of the ball. There were lengthy discussions on this board about that. Both of those things made him a huge target for both hits and sacks.

Fast forward to just two seasons ago (and even last year to a degree even with the leg issue) and Borrow did a much much better job not only stepping up in the pocket but also taking those free yards for very nice gains and running for 1st downs. But if you're being honest with yourself, Burrow is NOT Mahomes and should never even be in the discussion as a guy that can stop and start on a dime like PM does, juke defenders like PM does, scramble the way PM does and having the ability to contort his body to avoid sacks let alone the sidearm passes off for completions. 

[KillerGoose]

(11 hours ago)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: Every year that Burrow has been our QB and Taylor calling plays, it has been extremely gun-heavy. Please, point me in the direction of the coaches talking about Burrow being under center more. I've googled, and absolutely nothing comes up. 

No, it hasn't. The last two years it has been. In 2020 and 2021, the Bengals were just barely above league average in their usage of shotgun. This trend continued into the first four weeks of 2022 when they made a change in week five. I suspect it was due to how awful the running game was, and the run game production improved after the change so they stuck with it. Analyzing 2023 is tough, but the Bengals were much more modest in their usage of shotgun with Browning in the game. Who knows what they wanted to do headed into the season. 

However, the point is that Joe and Zac offenses have not been "extremely gun heavy" every year that they have been here. Just the last two years, due to fairly explainable reasons. 

[Joelist]

(10 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: No, it hasn't. The last two years it has been. In 2020 and 2021, the Bengals were just barely above league average in their usage of shotgun. This trend continued into the first four weeks of 2022 when they made a change in week five. I suspect it was due to how awful the running game was, and the run game production improved after the change so they stuck with it. Analyzing 2023 is tough, but the Bengals were much more modest in their usage of shotgun with Browning in the game. Who knows what they wanted to do headed into the season. 

However, the point is that Joe and Zac offenses have not been "extremely gun heavy" every year that they have been here. Just the last two years, due to fairly explainable reasons. 

Exactly. Also in 23 when Burrow's calf healed and before the wrist they had already gone to a more balanced mix of Gun and Under Center. They were also starting to change up play selection occasionally to break tendencies. And it was working. Then Burrow hurt his wrist and with Browning they did have to change the playbook somewhat to fit what he was comfortable with. 

For this season I would expect they will come out looking more in terms of formations and playcalling like they did against SF. 

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(10 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: No, it hasn't. The last two years it has been. In 2020 and 2021, the Bengals were just barely above league average in their usage of shotgun. This trend continued into the first four weeks of 2022 when they made a change in week five. I suspect it was due to how awful the running game was, and the run game production improved after the change so they stuck with it. Analyzing 2023 is tough, but the Bengals were much more modest in their usage of shotgun with Browning in the game. Who knows what they wanted to do headed into the season. 

However, the point is that Joe and Zac offenses have not been "extremely gun heavy" every year that they have been here. Just the last two years, due to fairly explainable reasons. 

"Since the start of 2020, the Bengals lead the league in 11 personnel rate. Their shotgun rate is eighth-highest" - This was written after the 1st month of the 2021 season. So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from. 



So again, they were a heavy shotgun team in 2020, (very likely 2021), 2022, and 2023. We know Burrow prefers shotgun. The coaches & Burrow have been quoted that the playbook is the playbook and there aren't significant changes. 


Nobody has any evidence of this change except playing this way with a different QB


Yet, folks have this weird confidence in the offense changing. 

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(10 hours ago)Joelist Wrote: Exactly. Also in 23 when Burrow's calf healed and before the wrist they had already gone to a more balanced mix of Gun and Under Center. They were also starting to change up play selection occasionally to break tendencies. And it was working. Then Burrow hurt his wrist and with Browning they did have to change the playbook somewhat to fit what he was comfortable with. 

For this season I would expect they will come out looking more in terms of formations and playcalling like they did against SF. 

So, I went back and watched every snap of the 49ers game. 

Out of 63 offensive plays, including two kneel downs, 1 QB sneak, and 2 run ball-out plays, there were 15 snaps under center. So, 77% of our snaps were still in shotgun. If we remove the fluff (knees, qb sneaks, and running out the clock), we were in shotgun on 83% of our snaps. Still way above league average, and would have been the 3rd highest rate of shotgun usage in 2022 (I can't find cumulative 2023 data)

So...even in the example you used to highlight moving away from a very heavy shotgun offense...we were still a very heavy shotgun offense lol

[KillerGoose]

(8 hours ago)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: "Since the start of 2020, the Bengals lead the league in 11 personnel rate. Their shotgun rate is eighth-highest" - This was written after the 1st month of the 2021 season. So I'm not sure where you're getting your information from. 



So again, they were a heavy shotgun team in 2020, (very likely 2021), 2022, and 2023. We know Burrow prefers shotgun. The coaches & Burrow have been quoted that the playbook is the playbook and there aren't significant changes. 


Nobody has any evidence of this change except playing this way with a different QB


Yet, folks have this weird confidence in the offense changing. 

I am getting my data from a play-by-play database that goes back to 1999. Relative ranking doesn't tell the entire story if the deltas aren't very big. For 2020 & 2021, the league average shotgun usage was a little over 66%. Cincinnati was in shotgun 69% of the time. Compare that to Philadelphia or Baltimore, who are in shotgun on ~90% of their snaps. Cincinnati used shotgun just a bit above league average. I would hardly call them a shotgun heavy team. Maybe your threshold for doing so is different than mine, but 3% more than average doesn't equal a heavy team IMO. 

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(7 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: I am getting my data from a play-by-play database that goes back to 1999. Relative ranking doesn't tell the entire story if the deltas aren't very big. For 2020 & 2021, the league average shotgun usage was a little over 66%. Cincinnati was in shotgun 69% of the time. Compare that to Philadelphia or Baltimore, who are in shotgun on ~90% of their snaps. Cincinnati used shotgun just a bit above league average. I would hardly call them a shotgun heavy team. Maybe your threshold for doing so is different than mine, but 3% more than average doesn't equal a heavy team IMO. 

Care to share this database you're referencing? According to sharp analytics, in 2020 the average was 65%. We were at 76% or 8th highest in the league (and that's without the guy who likes shotgun playing 1/2 the season). 

So, yes. I'd consider 11% higher than the average to be a heavy shotgun team. Especially when you consider the teams that are in shotgun 90+% of the time are the teams with running QBs (AZ, BAL, PHI) which skews the averages.

In 2023 I can't find cumulative data, but according to ESPN, during our 4-1 stretch when Burrow was healthy, we were in Shotgun 85% of the time
In 2022 we used shotgun 77% of the time (5th in the league)
In 2021 I can't find cumulative data.
In 2020 we used shotgun 76% of the time (8th in the league)


So again, we have been consistently a shotgun heavy team. People are acting like that's going to change, and my simple question is, what makes anybody confident about that based on what we've seen from the QB/Coach combo? All the evidence would tell you that the approach is going to stay the same.

[KillerGoose]

(6 hours ago)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: Care to share this database you're referencing? According to sharp analytics, in 2020 the average was 65%. We were at 76% or 8th highest in the league (and that's without the guy who likes shotgun playing 1/2 the season). 

So, yes. I'd consider 11% higher than the average to be a heavy shotgun team. Especially when you consider the teams that are in shotgun 90+% of the time are the teams with running QBs (AZ, BAL, PHI)

Sure. Here is the link. You have to be able to write a bit of code and need to have RStudio installed. It is a package for the programming language R but it is incredibly powerful. I do want to correct myself, though. You are correct that 2020 was 76%. I was taking an aggregate of 2020 and 2021 which averages out to 69% and had specifically checked 2021, but not 2020. They were a heavier shotgun team in 2020 but not in 2021, where they dipped to 64%. Here's a screenshot of 2021.

[*Synric*]

(6 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: Sure. Here is the link. You have to be able to write a bit of code and need to have RStudio installed. It is a package for the programming language R but it is incredibly powerful. I do want to correct myself, though. You are correct that 2020 was 76%. I was taking an aggregate of 2020 and 2021 which averages out to 69% and had specifically checked 2021, but not 2020. They were a heavier shotgun team in 2020 but not in 2021, where they dipped to 64%. Here's a screenshot of 2021.

Bengals were running outside zone for a large part of 2021.  

[KillerGoose]

(6 hours ago)Synric Wrote: Bengals were running outside zone for a large part of 2021.  

IIRC they came into 2022 running OZ but it wasn't working and that's when they made the switch to shotgun duos/trap in week five, which did work. 

[*Synric*]

(6 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: IIRC they came into 2022 running OZ but it wasn't working and that's when they made the switch to shotgun duos/trap in week five, which did work. 

They started to run some traps and inside zone late in 2021 to match their developing shotgun passing offense but I guess they decided to switch back in 2022 which did not work lol.


The undercenter stuff is meh to me I'm interested to see if they bring out some 13 personnel groupings this year. Baltimore and KC had those really nice 13 personnel groupings and although the Cardinals were not very good their 13 personnel stuff gave the Bengals defense fits week 6.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11 hours ago)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: I fully understand the reasoning and benefits of going under center. However, listing the benefits/reasoning to do it is different than sharing evidence that that change is as imminent as you all seem to believe. 

Every year that Burrow has been our QB and Taylor calling plays, it has been extremely gun-heavy. Please, point me in the direction of the coaches talking about Burrow being under center more. I've googled, and absolutely nothing comes up. 

“I think we’re gonna dictate that [tempo] a little more this year. I’m excited about the pressure we’re going to put on defenses with our style of offense this year, I think it’ll be exciting to watch. I think with the personnel that we have this year, we will be able to do a lot more with personnel groupings, putting different people in different spots in and doing a lot of different things as far as eye candy and making teams adjust their personnel based on ours,”


Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher isn’t fully buying into the chatter that the offense will look wildly different next season. Pitcher says the level of changes might be overstated.

Our core offense is our core offense. We're going to do what we do," Burrow said.

You seem to have hope that the offense goes in that direction, but again, based on our history with Burrow + Taylor and lack of evidence in that change from coaches/Burrow interviews, I'm not sure I'm buying that.

We had a thread on here and I am pretty sure it was Pitcher our OC specifically saying that we need to have Burrow under Center more
and that playing 100% in the Shotgun early last year was BECAUSE of his calf injury. He couldn't play under Center, hand the ball off in 
the running game or turn his back to the Defense.

Cool if you don't buy it, but I have hope that we run plays with Burrow under Center much more since he should be healthy and it helps
the OL and the Offense as a whole in being unpredictable.

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(5 hours ago)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: We had a thread on here and I am pretty sure it was Pitcher our OC specifically saying that we need to have Burrow under Center more
and that playing 100% in the Shotgun early last year was BECAUSE of his calf injury. He couldn't play under Center, hand the ball off in 
the running game or turn his back to the Defense.

Cool if you don't buy it, but I have hope that we run plays with Burrow under Center much more since he should be healthy and it helps
the OL and the Offense as a whole in being unpredictable.

Having a thread on here means absolutely nothing about having information that a change is happening lol. And again, I've googled this and there isn't anything that Taylor, Pritcher, or Burrow have said about going under center more. In fact, Pritcher was asked directly and he was his response: 

GH: Will you change how much more you go under center?


I'm giving you the same broken record answer that I've given you the whole time. It's impossible to predict. Totally context dependent.


Obviously they aren't going to go into details on new changes and what not, but again, with the lack of information we've heard about changes and our track record of being a heavy shotgun team...I'm not buying this change that you all seem convinced is happening. You keep referencing coaches talking about it and I keep asking you for examples..but they don't exist.

[Lucius Cincinnatus]

(6 hours ago)KillerGoose Wrote: Sure. Here is the link. You have to be able to write a bit of code and need to have RStudio installed. It is a package for the programming language R but it is incredibly powerful. I do want to correct myself, though. You are correct that 2020 was 76%. I was taking an aggregate of 2020 and 2021 which averages out to 69% and had specifically checked 2021, but not 2020. They were a heavier shotgun team in 2020 but not in 2021, where they dipped to 64%. Here's a screenshot of 2021.

Thanks for sharing. So Burrow has played 4 years. In 3/4 years, he was in a shotgun heavy offense, 2 of those seasons being the most recent. With no public comments or reports about incorporating under center, folks are essentially using 1-2 games, games in which Burrow was still well above the average in shotgun snaps (83%), and games a backup played, to come to a conclusion that the O-line will be better because we will be in shotgun less. 

Technically, we probably will be in shotgun a bit less than last year given the injury, but nothing shows me that it will be different from our general approach under Taylor.

[*ochocincos*]

(10 hours ago)higgy100 Wrote: Look, you're a smart guy and good poster but please don't compare these 2 QB's when it comes to scrambling and evading sacks. Burrow his first 2 years did himself no favors as he sat in the pocket way too long waiting for plays to develop and when he did move it was laterally and just getting rid of the ball. There were lengthy discussions on this board about that. Both of those things made him a huge target for both hits and sacks.

Fast forward to just two seasons ago (and even last year to a degree even with the leg issue) and Borrow did a much much better job not only stepping up in the pocket but also taking those free yards for very nice gains and running for 1st downs. But if you're being honest with yourself, Burrow is NOT Mahomes and should never even be in the discussion as a guy that can stop and start on a dime like PM does, juke defenders like PM does, scramble the way PM does and having the ability to contort his body to avoid sacks let alone the sidearm passes off for completions. 

You're making a big leap taking what I said as Burrow being someone who can stop and go on a dime.
Please point out where I said that.

All I said was the Chiefs allowed very low sack numbers despite their QB having very high passing attempts.
Are some of the sacks for the Bengals because the QB held onto the ball too long? Sure.
Does Mahomes's ability to scramble help avoid some sacks that the Chiefs didn't get dinged for? Also probably.
But anyone who has watched the Bengals games can tell the OL has not been good at pass blocking as a whole.
That's the point I am making.

Burrow still ran for a decent amount even if he's not as shifty of a runner/scrambler as Mahomes or Lamar Jackson.
If he wasn't able to run at all, he'd be near the bottom of the rushing attempts among QBs.

[KillerGoose]

(3 hours ago)Lucius Cincinnatus Wrote: Thanks for sharing. So Burrow has played 4 years. In 3/4 years, he was in a shotgun heavy offense, 2 of those seasons being the most recent. With no public comments or reports about incorporating under center, folks are essentially using 1-2 games, games in which Burrow was still well above the average in shotgun snaps (83%), and games a backup played, to come to a conclusion that the O-line will be better because we will be in shotgun less. 

Technically, we probably will be in shotgun a bit less than last year given the injury, but nothing shows me that it will be different from our general approach under Taylor.

I posted a link earlier in the thread from a credible reporter at Bengals mini-camp discussing how the Bengals intend to go more under center. It isn't a direct quote from a coach, though, so I assume you're not going to put much weight into it. I think it is possible they change it up because they entered the 2022 season with a heavier UC split but moved away from it when they stopped running OZ. It seems to me they wanted a continuation and evolution of the 2021 offense, but the run game was so bad they had to make a more drastic in-season shift. In 2023, it's hard to say what they wanted to do due to Burrow's injury. 

In short, what will determine their usage of each depth will be what kind of rush offense they want to implement. Both depths are completely fine and I am not advocating for either one of them specifically, but being under center does provide some more flexibility for your run game and some extra options that I would like the Bengals to utilize.