Reasons why Trump will win or lose.

[fredtoast]

Everyone needs to give one reason why they think Trump might lose the election and one reason why he may win it.

Even though this is labeled as a Trump thread it is abviously a Biden thread also.


1. Trump will lose because...He has done nothing to broaden his base, but he has alienated some Republicans that used to support him. Trump has turned against so many highly respected military men (Jim Mattis, John Kelly) and the way he handled the USS Theodore Roosevelt incident and the current Russian bounty issue have also weakened his support in that part of his base. Also rural coal workers who strongly supported Trump are starting to realize that his support for fossil fuels does not include coal.

2. Trump will win because...Fear is a powerful motivator and Trump will be able to scare enough people with the threats of lawless riots destroying the country.

[Benton]

Trump will lose because... Christians can't keep turning a blind eye to the things he says and does just because he's running as a republican.

Trump will win because... Biden is the weakest candidate since Hillary Clinton.

[hollodero]

- Trump will lose because his self-centered approach and his narcissism are getting too much even for sympathetic conservatives, and because he loses older people due to his corona failures.

- Trump will win because even if he botches corona or is narcissistic to a fault conservatives still won't bring themselves to switch sides and the overall turnout will be really low.

[Goalpost]

Trump will win because people will still vote with their pocket books. Despite the virus, half the country in 401k haven't seen their savings collapse. The Fed and Mnuchin helped him. Biden's economic plan is to raise taxes and end shareholder capitalism, whatever that means.

Trump will lose because his ego gets the best of him and he cant seem to expand his base. And the media hates him.

[fredtoast]

(07-10-2020, 10:43 AM)Goalpost Wrote:   And the media hates him.

C'mon man, Sean Hannity can only be shown from the waist up when he is talking to or about Trump, and he has the highest rated show on the most popular news network in America.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

Trump will win because the US is still full of racists, bigots, misogynists and just shitty human beings, that are encouraged to air out these beliefs and make action of them, who all follow him as he allows them to get away with these atrocities against human morality and decency (of course, not every Trump/right supporter is like this, but he gives the ones I mentioned above, a voice; even W didn't cater to these classless individuals).

Trump will lose because maybe, for the first time since 2015, FINALLY Americans will slap themselves across the face and say, "were we that ridiculously stupid to allow our ass-backwards election system, to elect the biggest political joke since Roman times, as our leader and (arguably) the most powerful man in the world?"

How many of the latter will wake up however, is to be seen; also, not to put my 2 cents in, but really, the Electoral College should be used ONLY if there are more than 2 candidates, on the national level; otherwise, popular vote should be the one that counts. Period.

ASS. FRIGGIN'. BACKWARDS.

[*bfine32*]

Trump will lose because of personality

Trump will win because of policy

[BengalHawk62]

Trump will win because he can walk down 5th Ave, shoot someone and It will not matter to his fan base. It literally does not matter what he says or does, his followers will continue to praise him.


I cannot think of any reason why he will lose.

[*Nately120*]

Trump will lose because the list of groups and people against him has grown far beyond just butthurt liberals.

Trump will win because he got the nod to run as a member of the political party that has an easy-mode path to "winning" an election.

[fredtoast]

(07-10-2020, 12:50 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Trump will win because of policy

What policy?

He could not run the economy as well as Obama.

He ruined our relationship with South Korea and now Kim is test firing missiles while laughing at Trump.

Iran now has no limits on its uranium enrichment.

Trump handled the covid crisis like a clueless clown.

He is doubling down on his support for the Confederacy while an overwhelming majority of the country disagrees with him.

He has stripped protection from people covered by the ACA and has not yet even suggested any new form of health care reform or any new policy to replace the ACA.

He never built the wall he promised.


So exactly what "policy" could win him the election?

 

[CKwi88]

Trump will win because Biden is an uninspiring candidate in an election that most figure Trump will lose anyways.

Trump will lose because people realize the "outsider" experiment of the past 4 years has been a complete disaster.

[SunsetBengal]

Trump will win, because despite so many predictions that he would be forced to resign within months of taking office, endless dogged investigations pursued by the Democrats, he is still standing tall.

Trump will lose, because Democrats will steal an election through fraudulent mail in voting count and altered ballots.

[fredtoast]

(07-10-2020, 05:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Trump will win, because despite so many predictions that he would be forced to resign within months of taking office, endless dogged investigations pursued by the Democrats, he is still standing tall.

Uh, I don't think so.

Right now Trump approval rating is around 40.1%.  Over the last 80 years no President has won reelection with an approval rating that low at this point in their administration.

Obama...... 47.2
GW Bush... 46.8
Clinton ...... 53.8
GHW Bush. 36.7
Reagan...... 53.7
Carter........ 31.7 

What is even worse for Trump is that almost ALL of his approval rating is from his base.  The current difference between his approval rating among Republicans (91%) and Democrats (2%) is the largest in history.  He only has a 33% approval rating among independent voters.  Republicans also make up the smallest percentage of registered voters at 30%.  Independents are 38% and Democrats 31%.

Biden is now stretching out big leads not only in the overall population but also in all of the swing States.  And Biden's lead is growing.


Now I am not saying that it is a done deal.  In fact I am worried about what might happen between now and election day.  But one thing is clear.  .  .  .  Trump is NOT standing tall right now.  He has horribly bungled the covid situation and it has him falling hard.

[*Nately120*]

(07-10-2020, 05:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Trump will win, because despite so many predictions that he would be forced to resign within months of taking office, endless dogged investigations pursued by the Democrats, he is still standing tall.

Trump will lose, because Democrats will steal an election through fraudulent mail in voting count and altered ballots.

I'm not saying Trump won't or can't win, but the narrative that Trump is being pursued by butt-hurt liberals is old hat.  The republicans of the Lincoln Project have been going after him hard, George W Bush, Colin Powell, and Mitt Romney have all made a point to denounce Trump and the two SC justices Trump appointed both voted to "go after" Trump on the whole taxes thing.

The line of people/groups going after Trump has gone far beyond the liberals who wanted him out the second he was elected.  I don't expect Trump supporters to blush because liberals don't like the guy, but the guy is getting some bi-partisan pursuers on his arse.

[*jason*]

Trump will lose because young Americans are galvanized at the moment. Despite his internet bravado, he's botched just about everything. It's been pointed out that he's alienated several groups that once supported him with his incompetence, and his campaign is being run by his incompetent son in law. I think many people who sat out 2016 because they thought (correctly) that he was a joke will not make that same mistake.

He will win because... Lord have mercy the best you could trot out is Joe Biden?

[*Nately120*]

(07-10-2020, 07:52 PM)jason Wrote: Trump will lose because young Americans are galvanized at the moment. Despite his internet bravado, he's botched just about everything. It's been pointed out that he's alienated several groups that once supported him with his incompetence, and his campaign is being run by his incompetent son in law. I think many people who sat out 2016 because they thought (correctly) that he was a joke will not make that same mistake.

He will win because... Lord have mercy the best you could trot out is Joe Biden?

I think Trump's unwavering insistence that he's done everything right and that he's the greatest has backfired.  Supporters for keeping Bush in 2004 and people who fawn over Reagan often point out that both guys had a sort of appealing humility and ability to be trusted to clean up any sort of spills that may have happened on their watch.

Sure, any humility any US President (that isn't Jimmy Carter) shows is political crap and hot air, but Trump's refusal to admit that he's infallible when things are looking pretty damn flawed shouldn't exactly give people any hope that he's going to be able to even fix anything because anything that's broken is either:

A - Not really broken, everything is awesome but a bunch of liars are trying to convince you things aren't awesome
B - Broken because some combination of the democrats and/or someone Trump hired and then denounced and fired blew it

Even people who weren't wild about how Bush and Bush handled their respective wars/disasters at least had some sort of "Well, sure he messed up but I think he's got a better chance to clean up the mess than (opponent)."  Trump won't even admit he's ever made a blunder, so his appeal is going to rely upon people who buy into the notion that he doesn't have to admit any errors and doesn't have to change a thing.  He might win, but he's really relying upon an unwavering and cult-like following to get it done.

I'd say Obama, Bush, Clinton, and Reagan all had a very political combination of relatability to go with their bravado that resonated with people. Trump's perceived power is based on the notion that he's incapable of failure and he is just flat-out exceptional and above the common man in almost every aspect. He's the best president, he's a genius, he's the healthiest, his rallies have the most people, and so on. He's banking on being "the best" and that's a precarious perch to put yourself on.


And yea, Biden sucks but after watching Trump vs Hillary I maintain we will never see such a no-win situation of an election ever again.  Book it....oh god, I hope I'm right on this one.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-10-2020, 07:41 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm not saying Trump won't or can't win, but the narrative that Trump is being pursued by butt-hurt liberals is old hat.  The republicans of the Lincoln Project have been going after him hard, George W Bush, Colin Powell, and Mitt Romney have all made a point to denounce Trump and the two SC justices Trump appointed both voted to "go after" Trump on the whole taxes thing.

The line of people/groups going after Trump has gone far beyond the liberals who wanted him out the second he was elected.  I don't expect Trump supporters to blush because liberals don't like the guy, but the guy is getting some bi-partisan pursuers on his arse.

(07-10-2020, 08:03 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I think Trump's unwavering insistence that he's done everything right and that he's the greatest has backfired.  Supporters for keeping Bush in 2004 and people who fawn over Reagan often point out that both guys had a sort of appealing humility and ability to be trusted to clean up any sort of spills that may have happened on their watch.

Sure, any humility any US President (that isn't Jimmy Carter) shows is political crap and hot air, but Trump's refusal to admit that he's infallible when things are looking pretty damn flawed shouldn't exactly give people any hope that he's going to be able to even fix anything because anything that's broken is either:

A - Not really broken, everything is awesome but a bunch of liars are trying to convince you things aren't awesome
B - Broken because some combination of the democrats and/or someone Trump hired and then denounced and fired blew it

Even people who weren't wild about how Bush and Bush handled their respective wars/disasters at least had some sort of "Well, sure he messed up but I think he's got a better chance to clean up the mess than (opponent)."  Trump won't even admit he's ever made a blunder, so his appeal is going to rely upon people who buy into the notion that he doesn't have to admit any errors and doesn't have to change a thing.  He might win, but he's really relying upon an unwavering and cult-like following to get it done.

I'd say Obama, Bush, Clinton, and Reagan all had a very political combination of relatability to go with their bravado that resonated with people.  Trump's perceived power is based on the notion that he's incapable of failure and he is just flat-out exceptional and above the common man in almost every aspect.  He's the best president, he's a genius, he's the healthiest, his rallies have the most people, and so on.  He's banking on being "the best" and that's a precarious perch to put yourself on.


And yea, Biden sucks but after watching Trump vs Hillary I maintain we will never see such a no-win situation of an election ever again.  Book it....oh god, I hope I'm right on this one.

Well, those are your opinons.  You seem pretty solid in your resolve, and I respect you and your opinions.  Your opinions also point toward a couple of leaders that were considered "valid" and "trustworthy", yet the same biased media also did their best to deconstruct and destroy them.  So, there is that.  In my opinion, the truth is that we have yet to actually see what sort of unfettered leader that Trump can be.  He's been bogged down, in what I consider to be frivolous investigations and such, compounded with extreme opposition and defiance from the House of Reps.  

I'm not saying that some of the opposition isn't warranted, I just think that some of it is specifically because they are scared of appearing to show that Trump actually has some good ideas, and don't want his popularity to spread further.

[*Nately120*]

(07-10-2020, 08:49 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, those are your opinons.  You seem pretty solid in your resolve, and I respect you and your opinions.  Your opinions also point toward a couple of leaders that were considered "valid" and "trustworthy", yet the same biased media also did their best to deconstruct and destroy them.  So, there is that.  In my opinion, the truth is that we have yet to actually see what sort of unfettered leader that Trump can be.  He's been bogged down, in what I consider to be frivolous investigations and such, compounded with extreme opposition and defiance from the House of Reps.  

I'm not saying that some of the opposition isn't warranted, I just think that some of it is specifically because they are scared of appearing to show that Trump actually has some good ideas, and don't want his popularity to spread further.

This isn't really about my views on Trump so much as me being curious as to what Trump supporters think about him now that the list of people trying to bring him down includes his own political party, SC justices they were happy to see appointed, and the only living republican former president.

As a member of a 3rd party I'm in-tune with both sides being against my candidates but it's gotta be a little unnerving be a Trump supporter and see that going after him is hardly a left-wing activity these days...that's all.  And I think the idea of having an unfettered president is either a pipe-dream or actually a bit of a nightmare scenario because the president is supposed to (in my mind) be fettered by the constitution, the people, and the rest of the political folks, in that order.

[Millhouse]

Trump will lose if the Coronavirus keeps spiraling out of control as there is no leadership coming from the White House in dealing with this pandemic (he hasn't even met with Fauci in about 2 months now per Fauci)

Trump will win if the virus's curve is somehow flattened, and if Biden goes too far to the left with his VP pick and in his speeches.

[SunsetBengal]

(07-10-2020, 09:12 PM)Nately120 Wrote: This isn't really about my views on Trump so much as me being curious as to what Trump supporters think about him now that the list of people trying to bring him down includes his own political party, SC justices they were happy to see appointed, and the only living republican former president.

As a member of a 3rd party I'm in-tune with both sides being against my candidates but it's gotta be a little unnerving be a Trump supporter and see that going after him is hardly a left-wing activity these days...that's all.  And I think the idea of having an unfettered president is either a pipe-dream or actually a bit of a nightmare scenario because the president is supposed to (in my mind) be fettered by the constitution, the people, and the rest of the political folks, in that order.

Well, one of the platforms that he ran on was to "drain the swamp", some of these investigations that have been going on are leading to details that some of the longtime members of the Republican Party have also been subject to wrongdoings.  Of course they want him out, he's not "one of them", so to speak.  

Trump has his personal shortcomings, I'll give everyone that.  But, if you put the personal bias aside, I think that his intentions are to get the US headed back toward being the most prosperous Nation in the World.  When I was a kid, my Dad was a UAW man, in a town with plenty of Black and Latino men all working at the same plant.  They all lived in modest, new homes, just like us White kids.  That is the Great America that Donald Trump is speaking of, when he says Make America Great Again.

To bolded:  Obama was relatively unfettered in his administration.  He may have seen some public backlash for what he supported, but the media didn't amplify it, in fact they appeared to make his every move look like a Kasperov move in Chess.