Reasons why Trump will win or lose.

[*Nately120*]

(07-10-2020, 10:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, one of the platforms that he ran on was to "drain the swamp", some of these investigations that have been going on are leading to details that some of the longtime members of the Republican Party have also been subject to wrongdoings.  Of course they want him out, he's not "one of them", so to speak.  

Trump has his personal shortcomings, I'll give everyone that.  But, if you put the personal bias aside, I think that his intentions are to get the US headed back toward being the most prosperous Nation in the World.  When I was a kid, my Dad was a UAW man, in a town with plenty of Black and Latino men all working at the same plant.  They all lived in modest, new homes, just like us White kids.  That is the Great America that Donald Trump is speaking of, when he says Make America Great Again.

To bolded:  Obama was relatively unfettered in his administration.  He may have seen some public backlash for what he supported, but the media didn't amplify it, in fact they appeared to make his every move look like a Kasperov move in Chess.

Well, to each his own but I'll put it simply that I've been mistrustful of the government for a while now, disappointed with how much people claim to love freedom while politicians whip up support based upon which freedoms they're going to limit, and Donald Trump is hardly the man to convince me that politicians aren't a bunch of power-grabbers who need to keep the masses underfoot while they sell us some pie-in-the-sky working class hero BS.

Trump's promises and policy don't speak to me, and his personality seems to be the complete opposite of the type who is striving to give everyone a shot.  I just don't see it, and I think electing someone like Trump is the opposite of perpetuating the American dream.  It's just a bunch of plutocratic, if not downright "divine right to rule" crap and anathema to what this country claims to be.

If you want I can go on tirades about any president of my lifetime, but Trump is easily the least "country first" by my estimations.  But what the hell do I honestly know?  It's just my 2 cents on a message board for a football team that hasn't had a winning season since Obummer was in office.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(07-10-2020, 06:16 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Uh, I don't think so.

Right now Trump approval rating is around 40.1%.  Over the last 80 years no President has won reelection with an approval rating that low at this point in their administration.

Obama...... 47.2
GW Bush... 46.8
Clinton ...... 53.8
GHW Bush. 36.7
Reagan...... 53.7
Carter........ 31.7 

What is even worse for Trump is that almost ALL of his approval rating is from his base.  The current difference between his approval rating among Republicans (91%) and Democrats (2%) is the largest in history.  He only has a 33% approval rating among independent voters.  Republicans also make up the smallest percentage of registered voters at 30%.  Independents are 38% and Democrats 31%.

Biden is now stretching out big leads not only in the overall population but also in all of the swing States.  And Biden's lead is growing.


Now I am not saying that it is a done deal.  In fact I am worried about what might happen between now and election day.  But one thing is clear.  .  .  .  Trump is NOT standing tall right now.  He has horribly bungled the covid situation and it has him falling hard.

I call a vote to strike/ban Fred for the use of the word bungled on a Bengals forum.

The real question is why can't we have a viable candidate at all to vote for.

[Benton]

(07-10-2020, 11:30 PM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I call a vote to strike/ban Fred for the use of the word bungled on a Bengals forum.

The real question is why can't we have a viable candidate at all to vote for.

Like a lot of words, people have the right to say them.... They just shouldnt.

As to the real question: the majority of people think if you don't vote for one of two parties, you're "wasting your vote."there are third parties in most elections, people opt not to vote for them.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(07-10-2020, 10:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, one of the platforms that he ran on was to "drain the swamp", some of these investigations that have been going on are leading to details that some of the longtime members of the Republican Party have also been subject to wrongdoings.  Of course they want him out, he's not "one of them", so to speak.  

Trump has his personal shortcomings, I'll give everyone that.  But, if you put the personal bias aside, I think that his intentions are to get the US headed back toward being the most prosperous Nation in the World.  When I was a kid, my Dad was a UAW man, in a town with plenty of Black and Latino men all working at the same plant.  They all lived in modest, new homes, just like us White kids.  That is the Great America that Donald Trump is speaking of, when he says Make America Great Again.

To bolded:  Obama was relatively unfettered in his administration.  He may have seen some public backlash for what he supported, but the media didn't amplify it, in fact they appeared to make his every move look like a Kasperov move in Chess.

Sorry to be the language prick again, but, "Kasparov."

Can't do the greatest modern-day chess player like that

[fredtoast]

(07-10-2020, 10:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote:   Of course they want him out, he's not "one of them", so to speak.  

I have never understood this argument.

Trump takes money from the same places as all the other Republicans.

Trump supports almost all of the same position on the major issues that all the other Republicans do.

The reason they want him out is because he is incompetent.  He does not even know how the government works or what he can do as President.  He makes decisions based on his ego instead of what is best for the country.  Many times he is a complete embarrassment.

[fredtoast]

(07-10-2020, 10:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: To bolded:  Obama was relatively unfettered in his administration.

This just is not true.  The Benghazi attacks alone were investigated by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, several House panels led by the House Intelligence Committee, and a specially created House Benghazi committee.

There were also congressional investigations involving federal loans to Solyndra, alleged political bias in the IRS, and the "Fast and Furious" gun trafficking program.

Trump has been investigated so much more because he has a long history as a liar and a con man.  Trump University was shut down because it was a fraud.  The Trump Charitable Foundation was shut down because it was a fraud.  Trump was a leader of the "Birther HOAX" against Obama and claimed he had proof Obama was born in Kenya.  Trump has also been found civilly liable for misconduct in many legal acvtions.  And finally he had his campaign committee meeet with Russian spies and LIED HIS ASS OFF about it.

Obama has been investigated less for the same reason you have been investigated less.  He is not a crook or a conman.

[samhain]

Trump will lose because of COVID. There's basically no plan to deal with the spread and really never has been. The result is a rise in cases and an elderly population with their lives at risk. You know who votes reliably? The elderly. You know who votes reliably for Trump? Elderly white guys. You know who Trump just told to go ahead and die to re-open? The elderly, that's who, and they are. This is going to cause problems for him and his campaign.

What's more is, I don't get the sense that anyone other than the outright deniers think that this thing is getting better anytime soon. When the people who are at risk look around, they will notice who's losing their minds over mask-wearing and shut downs. They will see their MAGA hats and understand that the people wearing them do not value any lives beyond their own.

I think Trump can survive the protests, and in a world without COVID, they would probably just galvanize his base. I just listened to 3 Trumpers at work yesterday laugh their asses off about one of them having to drive to Florida today and hoping that he'd have the chance to run over some BLM protesters in Atlanta. His base would have get hard-ons if he sicced the military on protesters, regardless of whether or not they were violent.

Trump will win because Biden and general nihilism in the American population, with a touch of the Dems capability of doing the dumbest thing imaginable to appease a small group of people while at the same time alienating exponentially more.

[treee]

(07-11-2020, 03:56 PM)samhain Wrote: Trump will lose because of COVID.  There's basically no plan to deal with the spread and really never has been.  The result is a rise in cases and an elderly population with their lives at risk.  You know who votes reliably?  The elderly.  You know who votes reliably for Trump?  Elderly white guys.  You know who Trump just told to go ahead and die to re-open?  The elderly, that's who, and they are.  This is going to cause problems for him and his campaign.  

What's more is, I don't get the sense that anyone other than the outright deniers think that this thing is getting better anytime soon.  When the people who are at risk look around, they will notice who's losing their minds over mask-wearing and shut downs.  They will see their MAGA hats and understand that the people wearing them do not value any lives beyond their own.  

I think Trump can survive the protests, and in a world without COVID, they would probably just galvanize his base.  I just listened to 3 Trumpers at work yesterday laugh their asses off about one of them having to drive to Florida today and hoping that he'd have the chance to run over some BLM protesters in Atlanta.  His base would have get hard-ons if he sicced the military on protesters, regardless of whether or not they were violent.  

Trump will win because Biden and general nihilism in the American population, with a touch of the Dems capability of doing the dumbest thing imaginable to appease a small group of people while at the same time alienating exponentially more.

I agree. Trump has done almost nothing to expand his base and his anti-intellectualism came to bite him in the arse when Covid-19 became a reality. 

[*jason*]

(07-11-2020, 04:05 PM)treee Wrote: I agree. Trump has done almost nothing to expand his base and his anti-intellectualism came to bite him in the arse when Covid-19 became a reality. 

Anit- intellectualism? Why I heard just yesterday that the doctors were stunnned at the greatness of his cognitive abilities.

[*Nately120*]

(07-11-2020, 02:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have never understood this argument.

Trump takes money from the same places as all the other Republicans.

Trump supports almost all of the same position on the major issues that all the other Republicans do.

The reason they want him out is because he is incompetent.  He does not even know how the government works or what he can do as President.  He makes decisions based on his ego instead of what is best for the country.  Many times he is a complete embarrassment.

The thing that baffles me about praising Trump for being "an outsider" is the notion that celebrities be they athletes or music/movie folks should "keep their politics to themselves."  We seem to have this sort of inconsistency where we like the idea of a non-politician being a politician but we also want non-politicians to shut up and stop talking politics.

[*bfine32*]

Conservative POV:
Trump will win if he gets to 270 in the EC

Liberal POV:
Trump will lose if he doesn't win the popular election.

[GMDino]

(07-12-2020, 07:53 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The thing that baffles me about praising Trump for being "an outsider" is the notion that celebrities be they athletes or music/movie folks should "keep their politics to themselves."  We seem to have this sort of inconsistency where we like the idea of a non-politician being a politician but we also want non-politicians to shut up and stop talking politics.

Only those who disagree with conservatives.  They need to "stay in their lane".

All seriousness aside the idea that republican are still going after the "elites" when they elected a born rich kid from New York who also wanted to be a television star is staggeringly dumb.

[fredtoast]

(07-12-2020, 08:31 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Conservative POV:
Trump will win if he gets to 270 in the EC

Liberal POV:
Trump will lose if he doesn't win the popular election.

Let me take this chance to say that I am not going to complain if someone does not answer the question exactly like I asked for in the OP.

All opinions are welcome here that relate to the general subject matter of the OP.

[*bfine32*]

(07-12-2020, 10:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Let me take this chance to say that I am not going to complain if someone does not answer the question exactly like I asked for in the OP.

All opinions are welcome here that relate to the general subject matter of the OP.

My bad:

1. Trump will lose because...He has done nothing to broaden his base, but he has alienated some Republicans that used to support him. Trump has turned against so many highly respected military men (Jim Mattis, John Kelly) and the way he handled the USS Theodore Roosevelt incident and the current Russian bounty issue have also weakened his support in that part of his base. Also rural coal workers who strongly supported Trump are starting to realize that his support for fossil fuels does not include coal.


2. Trump will win because...Fear is a powerful motivator and Trump will be able to scare enough people with the threats of lawless riots destroying the country.

[fredtoast]

(07-12-2020, 11:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: My bad:

1. Trump will lose because...He has done nothing to broaden his base, but he has alienated some Republicans that used to support him. Trump has turned against so many highly respected military men (Jim Mattis, John Kelly) and the way he handled the USS Theodore Roosevelt incident and the current Russian bounty issue have also weakened his support in that part of his base. Also rural coal workers who strongly supported Trump are starting to realize that his support for fossil fuels does not include coal.


2. Trump will win because...Fear is a powerful motivator and Trump will be able to scare enough people with the threats of lawless riots destroying the country.

X2

[samhain]

(07-12-2020, 11:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: My bad:

1. Trump will lose because...He has done nothing to broaden his base, but he has alienated some Republicans that used to support him. Trump has turned against so many highly respected military men (Jim Mattis, John Kelly) and the way he handled the USS Theodore Roosevelt incident and the current Russian bounty issue have also weakened his support in that part of his base. Also rural coal workers who strongly supported Trump are starting to realize that his support for fossil fuels does not include coal.


2. Trump will win because...Fear is a powerful motivator and Trump will be able to scare enough people with the threats of lawless riots destroying the country.

I agree for the most part.  I'm jut not totally sure about the riots and the fear they may or may not bring.  I think the violence and freeway-blocking has abated to a degree and will dissipate before fall unless something over the top happens from a police brutality perspective.  Anger wears people out, even when it's genuine.  It's exhausting to be perpetually mad.  The Dems own the urban areas.  The right owns the rural.  The election will be won in the suburbs, and the riots haven't reached them yet for the most part.  if people start burning down McMansions, then, sure.

I think Trump's best path to victory is a direct attack on Biden's mental state on a consistent basis.  That's it.  He's failed badly thus far in painting Biden like he did Hillary.  Biden isn't the villain that she was.  He's a boring establishment centrist.  That was a disadvantage early on, but not so much anymore.  Status quo is fun to rail against when we're fat and happy, but in times like this, people want nothing more than a return to it.  Biden embodies this as well as anyone.  Trump has to find a way to discredit him and hammer at it.  

[*jason*]

(07-13-2020, 12:12 AM)samhain Wrote: I agree for the most part.  I'm jut not totally sure about the riots and the fear they may or may not bring.  I think the violence and freeway-blocking has abated to a degree and will dissipate before fall unless something over the top happens from a police brutality perspective.  Anger wears people out, even when it's genuine.  It's exhausting to be perpetually mad.  The Dems own the urban areas.  The right owns the rural.  The election will be won in the suburbs, and the riots haven't reached them yet for the most part.  if people start burning down McMansions, then, sure.

I think Trump's best path to victory is a direct attack on Biden's mental state on a consistent basis.  That's it.  He's failed badly thus far in painting Biden like he did Hillary.  Biden isn't the villain that she was.  He's a boring establishment centrist.  That was a disadvantage early on, but not so much anymore.  Status quo is fun to rail against when we're fat and happy, but in times like this, people want nothing more than a return to it.  Biden embodies this as well as anyone.  Trump has to find a way to discredit him and hammer at it.  

I live in a city where 1 in 3 people live in poverty with one of the largest food deserts in the area. There is no rioting or lawlessness to be seen. Sure we had some right after the George Floyd murder, but like you said... It's exhausting, and we have short attention spans in this country. If that's what Trump is going to run on, he's going to lose.

[samhain]

(07-13-2020, 01:02 AM)jason Wrote: I live in a city where 1 in 3 people live in poverty with one of the largest food deserts in the area. There is no rioting or lawlessness to be seen. Sure we had some right after the George Floyd murder, but like you said... It's exhausting, and we have short attention spans in this country. If that's what Trump is going to run on, he's going to lose.

I do think there are people that might be willing to vote for him to keep the protesters in check, but those people were probably already voting for him anyway.  It'll be a tough sell for him to say that he'll reign in any unrest when he's been the guy in office during the current unrest.  He can't credibly paint a Biden presidency as a lawless one when the lawlessness he claims he will end is going on during his term in office.

[samhain]

Stangely enough, I think that conservative economic policies on the state level will bring down conservative social policy in the end. States like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have all done a lot to attract investment with lower taxes and lax labor laws. They want manufacturing and even moreso tech to invest in their states. Young professionals have moved to these states in significant numbers, and young professionals are more liberal in terms of social policy.

If you had perhaps a neocon or a centrist Republican candidate to run, then maybe they have a chance to keep votes with promises of lower taxes and an absence of white nationalist rhetoric. Trump is not that candidate, and he stands to hurt the party long term with his brand of politics.

Courting investment form the outside and attracting young talent has boosted red state economies, but in the end it will be the death of their classic Deep-South religious and racially tinged campaigning. If Texas becomes a blue or even swing state, the Republicans will have their work cut out for them if they ever want to win another general, and that's what we are seeing now.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-10-2020, 05:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Trump will win, because despite so many predictions that he would be forced to resign within months of taking office, endless dogged investigations pursued by the Democrats, he is still standing tall.

Trump will lose, because Democrats will steal an election through fraudulent mail in voting count and altered ballots.

Sorry, but I tire of the “partisan attack” narrative pushed by Republicans.

As an Independent (or as I like to call myself, an American) I feel that these last three years has been nothing but a partisan defense of a liar and a conman.

Donald Trump will win if Russia truly has infiltrated our voting system or by voter suppression. He needs a miracle in a very short period of time.

Donald Trump will lose because he has not attracted any new voters and has shed voters by the thousands.