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Roe Vs Wade Overturned
(04-02-2024, 12:29 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Anyone voting for Trump, which you acknowledged will be more people than vote for Biden, is going to also vote for Scott.  I don't see abortion peeling away any of those voters.  I say that while completely agreeing with you that the issue is an albatross for the GOP.

I don't know. We're not talking about a boatload of votes here. It won't take too many people who only vote the top of the ballot or split the vote to defeat Scott.  

And more Republican women will vote for reproductive rights than they say they will in the polls.  It is the unknown which is why Republicans cannot take Florida for granted this year
 

 Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
 




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(04-02-2024, 12:35 PM)pally Wrote: I don't know. We're not talking about a boatload of votes here. It won't take too many people who only vote the top of the ballot or split the vote to defeat Scott.  

And more Republican women will vote for reproductive rights than they say they will in the polls.  It is the unknown which is why Republicans cannot take Florida for granted this year

I'll concede all those points.  If it was a non-POTUS election year I think you'd be on very solid ground.  The presidential election is going to be what drives voters to the polls, especially this year, and I cannot see significant numbers of Trump voters peeling off Scott based on this issue.  I do see them peeling off for the ballot measure on this exact issue though.

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(04-02-2024, 12:50 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'll concede all those points.  If it was a non-POTUS election year I think you'd be on very solid ground.  The presidential election is going to be what drives voters to the polls, especially this year, and I cannot see significant numbers of Trump voters peeling off Scott based on this issue.  I do see them peeling off for the ballot measure on this exact issue though.

The wildcard in Florida is the over 1 million college students in the state.  I know when Issue 1 was on the ballot in Ohio the students voting in favor of it were the difference in several normally ruby red counties.  If they come out in force they can turn the election.
 

 Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
 




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(04-02-2024, 04:16 PM)pally Wrote: The wildcard in Florida is the over 1 million college students in the state.  I know when Issue 1 was on the ballot in Ohio the students voting in favor of it were the difference in several normally ruby red counties.  If they come out in force they can turn the election.

I don't think all of them can vote if they are from another State or still have ID from another state. 

Anyways, i hope it passes, would be nice to force the R's to give some ground on it.

Right now the all or nothing isn't really a good approach. If they did the meet in the middle (1st trimester) then I'd bet they flip alot of votes.
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