navigating the economy

[Goalpost]

So GDP came out today and we went negative for this quarter. The projection was we would be slightly positive. If we have one more quarter of negative GDP, a second one following this one, then a recession is officially named of it. During a recession, interest rates generally fall to help the economy/stimulate it. However....

We have inflation right now. The highest in about 40 years. And the way to tackle inflation is to raise interest rates.

We are kind of stuck in no man's land. Do we want to stimulate the economy or do we need to tackle inflation. The forecast from bonds has been rate hikes are apparent and they have moved higher this year to support that. Bank rates on home loans have risen for example as a result.

I would say tackling inflation is more important and it's likely we will be in a recession by next quarter.

[Mike M (the other one)]

If that happens, Biden will likely not even have a chance to get re-elected.

[Sled21]

(04-29-2022, 12:20 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: If that happens, Biden will likely not even have a chance to get re-elected.

Biden has NO chance of getting re-elected. The Dems aren't even going to nominate him again.

[basballguy]

(05-03-2022, 12:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Biden has NO chance of getting re-elected. The Dems aren't even going to nominate him again.

I'm with you here.  I would be shocked to see him come out with the nomination for 2024.  It's crazy how rapidly his mental state deteriorated over the last couple years.  Listening to him talk is rough.  

[KillerGoose]

(05-03-2022, 12:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Biden has NO chance of getting re-elected. The Dems aren't even going to nominate him again.

Things definitely don't look great right now, but these comments are foolish. I live in Oklahoma, and the amount of people I heard say that Biden had "zero chance" at winning was substantial, despite data saying that Biden was a heavy favorite. Biden certainly has a chance at getting re-elected, but it is nowhere near as good as it was in 2020. In a hypothetical election as of today, data suggests that Biden & Trump are neck-and-neck. A normal margin of error is around five points. For reference, when Biden defeated Trump, he was a nine point favorite, which is why many felt he would win. When Trump beat Hillary, she was only a four point favorite, within the margin of error. Trump swung that and beat her. Since Trump has fared better than his polling suggests, I would have Trump as a favorite right now, but that doesn't mean that Biden has no chance.

Anecdote that I found funny. My wife and in-laws are die hard Republicans and leading up to the election, they were laughing at the possibility of Biden winning. They were mentioning all of the normal talking points - Sleepy Joe, Trump's rally sizes etc. I had mentioned that things actually didn't look great for Donald according to polling data and told them there was a very real, very likely chance he wasn't going to win. Of course, that didn't prompt any productive conversation. When Biden won, this family was absolutely floored. They had taken the bait without looking into it themselves. 

I guess my point is I think there is value in trying to stay in a realm of reality. Trump is likely a favorite as of today, but Biden still has a chance. This also isn't taking into account potential emotional shifts as election season arrives. People may not be a fan of Biden right now, but once/if Trump comes back into the spotlight, you may find folks being reminded of their distaste for him and sticking to Joe. IMO, that is the single largest reason Trump lost - if he was your average mannered president, he would have won, I think. He lost because people dislike him as a person so much. It's hard to quantify that until you're in the moment I.E. election season.

Shifting away from the exhausting Biden/Trump conversation, I would love to see some new faces as the elected candidates. I would prefer younger candidates. On the GOP side, I think that would look like DeSantis but I am not sure who the Dems could put. Buttigieg fits the young criteria but I didn't pay much attention to him this past cycle and I am not as familiar with his stances or experience. 

[Sled21]

My point is, by the time 2024 rolls around, he will be full on crapping his pants and eating pudding in a nursing home somewhere. His decline is accelerating and even the Dems know he has no business running the country (which is why Obama is doing it)

[basballguy]

(05-03-2022, 01:00 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Things definitely don't look great right now, but these comments are foolish. I live in Oklahoma, and the amount of people I heard say that Biden had "zero chance" at winning was substantial, despite data saying that Biden was a heavy favorite. Biden certainly has a chance at getting re-elected, but it is nowhere near as good as it was in 2020. In a hypothetical election as of today, data suggests that Biden & Trump are neck-and-neck. A normal margin of error is around five points. For reference, when Biden defeated Trump, he was a nine point favorite, which is why many felt he would win. When Trump beat Hillary, she was only a four point favorite, within the margin of error. Trump swung that and beat her. Since Trump has fared better than his polling suggests, I would have Trump as a favorite right now, but that doesn't mean that Biden has no chance.

Anecdote that I found funny. My wife and in-laws are die hard Republicans and leading up to the election, they were laughing at the possibility of Biden winning. They were mentioning all of the normal talking points - Sleepy Joe, Trump's rally sizes etc. I had mentioned that things actually didn't look great for Donald according to polling data and told them there was a very real, very likely chance he wasn't going to win. Of course, that didn't prompt any productive conversation. When Biden won, this family was absolutely floored. They had taken the bait without looking into it themselves. 

I guess my point is I think there is value in trying to stay in a realm of reality. Trump is likely a favorite as of today, but Biden still has a chance. This also isn't taking into account potential emotional shifts as election season arrives. People may not be a fan of Biden right now, but once/if Trump comes back into the spotlight, you may find folks being reminded of their distaste for him and sticking to Joe. IMO, that is the single largest reason Trump lost - if he was your average mannered president, he would have won, I think. He lost because people dislike him as a person so much. It's hard to quantify that until you're in the moment I.E. election season.

Shifting away from the exhausting Biden/Trump conversation, I would love to see some new faces as the elected candidates. I would prefer younger candidates. On the GOP side, I think that would look like DeSantis but I am not sure who the Dems could put. Buttigieg fits the young criteria but I didn't pay much attention to him this past cycle and I am not as familiar with his stances or experience. 

I think you missed the point.  Nobody is saying the Dems won't win in 2024 (it's still a possibility)....we're just saying Biden won't be the nominee so there's no way he'll be re-elected.  :)  

[KillerGoose]

(05-03-2022, 01:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: I think you missed the point.  Nobody is saying the Dems won't win in 2024 (it's still a possibility)....we're just saying Biden won't be the nominee so there's no way he'll be re-elected.  :)  

Oh, I understood the point. I just disagree with it. There is still a chance that he gets nominated for the Democratic primary and still a chance that he wins. I wouldn't call him a favorite or anything, but as it stands right now, it is possible. 

[basballguy]

(05-03-2022, 01:59 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Oh, I understood the point. I just disagree with it. There is still a chance that he gets nominated for the Democratic primary and still a chance that he wins. I wouldn't call him a favorite or anything, but as it stands right now, it is possible. 

Ok my mistake.  So i have a different opinion here and I think there is zero chance Biden himself gets re-elected if he is the nominee...not without a different (and stronger) VP.  

We traded mean tweets for incoherence (Biden) and incompetence (Harris).  Now if Trump runs against them....then ya it's probably a coin flip (right now)...however I'm hoping for a stronger GOP candidate.  

Without looking, I can't think of a single demographic that has benefited from this leadership for the first 18 months Biden has been in office.  Who's excited about the current state?  Doesn't seem like many people.  

If things stay status quo I would really like to know what the case is for voting Democrat/Biden in an election in 2 years.  I personally don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.  

• Homes are becoming even less affordable now than ever before
• Inflation is getting is out of control
• 401ks are getting wrecked / the market is an absolute shitshow right now
• The Reds are 3-19 and arguably the worst Reds team we've ever seen (clearly Biden's fault)
  

Corporate profits are on the rise but this could possibly be simply due to Covid recovery.  Some companies are missing targets hard on the latest earnings reports (See Netflix, Expedia, Amazon).

There's a strong possibility we will be in an economically defined "recession" by the next election.

[BigPapaKain]

(05-03-2022, 01:46 PM)Sled21 Wrote: My point is, by the time 2024 rolls around, he will be full on crapping his pants and eating pudding in a nursing home somewhere. His decline is accelerating and even the Dems know he has no business running the country (which is why Obama is doing it)

Is...is nobody gonna touch this one?

I mean I get why you wouldn't - but holy shit this is comedy gold.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-03-2022, 12:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Biden has NO chance of getting re-elected. The Dems aren't even going to nominate him again.

That would be in the Dems best interest. 
It's pretty much been shown that the incumbents fail when the economy dips and win it when it's up.

basically, peeps don't usually give 2 cents about the political BS as long as they are busy working and making money, basically don't rock the boat type of thing

[*Nately120*]

(05-03-2022, 12:12 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Biden has NO chance of getting re-elected. The Dems aren't even going to nominate him again.

Biden is in the optimal spot to pull a Harry Truman and just bail out of another term despite being the sitting president and eligible.  Maybe he'd be more like Hulk Hogan handing the belt over to the Ultimate Warrior at Wrestlemania 6 and being like "This is the guy you cheer for now, ok?  I'm outta here."

It's hard to say how Biden would fare in 2024....probably not very well, but if he's running against Trump who campaigns on a platform of all five of the most recent national elections being illegitimate if not outright rigged, Biden may have a chance. Maybe?  I don't know.

I'd like to see this country hit the reset button as far as D and R candidates goes, but that seems like the opposite of what they've been doing in the past few cycles. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-03-2022, 04:36 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'd like to see this country hit the reset button as far as D and R candidates goes, but that seems like the opposite of what they've been doing in the past few cycles. 

Yea, and good luck with that. 
Too many dug in where they are that need to get the boot on both sides.

[*michaelsean*]

(05-03-2022, 12:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: I'm with you here.  I would be shocked to see him come out with the nomination for 2024.  It's crazy how rapidly his mental state deteriorated over the last couple years.  Listening to him talk is rough.  

I’m guessing they were thinking Kamala 2024 but I can’t see that happening. I’d be happy with Biden and Trump watching the election from home.

[KillerGoose]

(05-03-2022, 02:20 PM)basballguy Wrote: Ok my mistake.  So i have a different opinion here and I think there is zero chance Biden himself gets re-elected if he is the nominee...not without a different (and stronger) VP.  

We traded mean tweets for incoherence (Biden) and incompetence (Harris).  Now if Trump runs against them....then ya it's probably a coin flip (right now)...however I'm hoping for a stronger GOP candidate.  

Without looking, I can't think of a single demographic that has benefited from this leadership for the first 18 months Biden has been in office.  Who's excited about the current state?  Doesn't seem like many people.  

If things stay status quo I would really like to know what the case is for voting Democrat/Biden in an election in 2 years.  I personally don't see any light at the end of the tunnel.  

• Homes are becoming even less affordable now than ever before
• Inflation is getting is out of control
• 401ks are getting wrecked / the market is an absolute shitshow right now
• The Reds are 3-19 and arguably the worst Reds team we've ever seen (clearly Biden's fault)
  

Corporate profits are on the rise but this could possibly be simply due to Covid recovery.  Some companies are missing targets hard on the latest earnings reports (See Netflix, Expedia, Amazon).

There's a strong possibility we will be in an economically defined "recession" by the next election.

I definitely hear you on the criticisms. I am not personally enthused with Biden, but I also think many of these problems aren't his fault. People generally blame the President for the issues that occur and I get that, but Biden isn't single handedly wrecking the nation or economy (not saying that this is what you are claiming). Regardless, as bad as some conservatives dislike him, he does have a very real chance of being elected again as it stands right now. I would love to see some stronger candidates from both sides. Unfortunately, I think we will be faced with choosing between two 80 year old men. 

[basballguy]

(05-03-2022, 10:56 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I definitely hear you on the criticisms. I am not personally enthused with Biden, but I also think many of these problems aren't his fault. People generally blame the President for the issues that occur and I get that, but Biden isn't single handedly wrecking the nation or economy (not saying that this is what you are claiming). Regardless, as bad as some conservatives dislike him, he does have a very real chance of being elected again as it stands right now. I would love to see some stronger candidates from both sides. Unfortunately, I think we will be faced with choosing between two 80 year old men. 

So I do think it's fair to say that the state of the economy isn't Biden's fault.  Presidents get too much blame when it's bad and too much praise when it's good....

I am inclined to put more of the blame on Congress than the president as they were the ones that thought it would be a great idea to just hand out cash to anyone and everyone during Covid.  

I'm also inclined to blame state leaderships that advocated for extended shutdowns.  We probably could've handled a quick shutdown but some cities/states had them go on for months.  

But the reality is, (which i'm sure you know) if the economy is in the shitter then the incumbent fairs rather poorly in elections.  

Separately, it is my very unprofessional and uneducated opinion that we haven't hit the bottom yet.  I would not be surprised if we continue to see a decline in the markets and increases to inflation.  

[KillerGoose]

(05-05-2022, 11:56 PM)basballguy Wrote: So I do think it's fair to say that the state of the economy isn't Biden's fault.  Presidents get too much blame when it's bad and too much praise when it's good....

I am inclined to put more of the blame on Congress than the president as they were the ones that thought it would be a great idea to just hand out cash to anyone and everyone during Covid.  

I'm also inclined to blame state leaderships that advocated for extended shutdowns.  We probably could've handled a quick shutdown but some cities/states had them go on for months.  

But the reality is, (which i'm sure you know) if the economy is in the shitter then the incumbent fairs rather poorly in elections.  

Separately, it is my very unprofessional and uneducated opinion that we haven't hit the bottom yet.  I would not be surprised if we continue to see a decline in the markets and increases to inflation.  

I think this is the most reasonable response I have seen in quite a while in regard to this topic. I have no issue with anything you said and mostly agree. I definitely think that Biden is in an unfavorable position and I don’t see it getting better. I’m just hoping we see some new candidates in 2024, though I am a bit skeptical.

[Goalpost]

(05-03-2022, 02:20 PM)basballguy Wrote:  Some companies are missing targets hard on the latest earnings reports (See Netflix, Expedia, Amazon).

Add Target and Walmart to the list.