Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[Belsnickel]

(02-24-2022, 02:09 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Biden has been wrong on every major foreign policy decision in last 4 decades - Washington Times

Quoting a highly biased media source on a highly subjective claim isn't a very valid argument.

[*Nately120*]

(02-24-2022, 02:53 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Quoting a highly biased media source on a highly subjective claim isn't a very valid argument.

Yeah, but did you see how big the font he used when he posted it?  Pretty compelling stuff.

[Belsnickel]

(02-24-2022, 01:48 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Ideally, yes.  However, I don't think the EU has the huevos for that type of move.  Hell, I don't we do right now either, but we are speaking speculatively.


China and Russia are essentially allies at this point.  However, if China throws in with Russia on this unprovoked war their days of trading with the West are done and their economy, which I strongly suspect is much weaker than presented, collapses.  They would certainly assist Russia "under the table", but it wouldn't be close to enough.  For them to make really meaningful contributions to Russia they'd have to do so openly, which brings about the same problem.


That's a guarantee, but they'd do so surreptitiously.  They can't risk becoming a global pariah (which they already should be) at the present time.

I neglected to mention, you cease all Russian assets held in other countries (that would go along with it) and ban all Russian exports.  Yes, China will help them, but that will still hurt and the asset seizure would be permanent.

I think that if NATO/the US puts boots on the ground, we will see China act more openly. The question for me is whether they will come in to help Russia directly, or whether they will use the opportunity to invade Taiwan which would split the attention coming from NATO.

[*Nately120*]

(02-24-2022, 01:00 PM)GMDino Wrote: Perhaps Texas would like to be part of Russia now too.

Steve Bannon and Erik Prince say we should be supporting Russia because Putin is anti-woke and has no tolerance for LGBTQ. pic.twitter.com/qzHl2TkwxJ

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 24, 2022

 

I realize these guys don't believe what they are saying and they just say stuff to profit off of unrest, but didn't we spend the past 20 years fighting a bunch of very un-woke brown people in the Middle East?

[*Nately120*]

It's still pretty wacky seeing establishment GOP members tacitly "side with the left" due to the political upheaval this country has had in the past few years. 

[HarleyDog]

(02-24-2022, 02:54 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I think that if NATO/the US puts boots on the ground, we will see China act more openly. The question for me is whether they will come in to help Russia directly, or whether they will use the opportunity to invade Taiwan which would split the attention coming from NATO.

The smart thing would be for them to invade Taiwan. It would be difficult for Nato/US to focus on two large conflicts/wars at once. Assisting the Russians would only slow their agenda. However, it could turn the other way and they could support the Russian invasion against US troops and turn this into WWIII. Then their invasion of Taiwan would probably be a joint effort. Either way, this is not a good situation we are facing.

[Belsnickel]

Chernobyl is now in Russian hands.

[Sled21]

(02-24-2022, 02:53 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Yeah, but did you see how big the font he used when he posted it?  Pretty compelling stuff.

Actually, I just cut and pasted that, I did not pick the font. But how far back do you want to go when looking at major foreign policy decisions? Biden was wrong on them all. He defies the odds he's wrong so much. And now here we are. He cut off our energy independence, ended the Trump sanctions against Russia, we are buying 500,000 barrels of oil a day from Russian, who just jacked up the price on us. Brilliant. Wrong on the Bin Laden raid, wrong on the surge, wrong on the Iraq War, wrong on everything. 

[HarleyDog]

(02-24-2022, 03:05 PM)Nately120 Wrote:

It's still pretty wacky seeing establishment GOP members tacitly "side with the left" due to the political upheaval this country has had in the past few years. 

Except Russia isn't going to crumble under sanctions and Putin is too proud. He's already hinted he will use nukes against the west if anyone gets in his way of this invasion. Nobody would win this scenario and even he knows that outcome, but I don't believe he fears the option.

[*Nately120*]

(02-24-2022, 03:13 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Actually, I just cut and pasted that, I did not pick the font. But how far back do you want to go when looking at major foreign policy decisions? Biden was wrong on them all. He defies the odds he's wrong so much. And now here we are. He cut off our energy independence, ended the Trump sanctions against Russia, we are buying 500,000 barrels of oil a day from Russian, who just jacked up the price on us. Brilliant. Wrong on the Bin Laden raid, wrong on the surge, wrong on the Iraq War, wrong on everything. 

Cries of energy independence from people who support a political party that routinely seeks to dismantle and undermine domestic initiatives and innovations based solely upon them being "too green" ring hollow to me, honestly. 

[KillerGoose]

(02-24-2022, 03:07 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: The smart thing would be for them to invade Taiwan. It would be difficult for Nato/US to focus on two large conflicts/wars at once. Assisting the Russians would only slow their agenda. However, it could turn the other way and they could support the Russian invasion against US troops and turn this into WWIII. Then their invasion of Taiwan would probably be a joint effort. Either way, this is not a good situation we are facing.

Taiwan would be very complicated and messy, though. It's a separated island with a capable military and plenty of countries willing to defend it. I agree, like you said, if China invades Taiwan then we have WWIII on our hands. It's hard to figure out how many assets would be committed to Europe in the event that the U.S. reversed course and put boots on the ground, but they would likely hold reserves that could be moved to Taiwan in the event that China became involved. The Japanese would also commit to defending Taiwan. 

If anything, I can imagine the U.S. becoming involved with the Air Force well before any infantry are involved in Ukraine, even if NATO goes in. Bombing runs and air superiority, missile strikes. I genuinely don't think we get here, though, unless something drastically changes. From what I can gather, Ukraine is largely on its own for the near future. 

[*Nately120*]

(02-24-2022, 03:13 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Except Russia isn't going to crumble under sanctions and Putin is too proud. He's already hinted he will use nukes against the west if anyone gets in his way of this invasion. Nobody would win this scenario and even he knows that outcome, but I don't believe he fears the option.

The sanctions will be effective against Russia's economy...whether or not an untouchable plutocrat like Putin will be affected any time before his so-called electorate can no longer survive is the question.

[HarleyDog]

(02-24-2022, 03:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Taiwan would be very complicated and messy, though. It's a separated island with a capable military and plenty of countries willing to defend it. I agree, like you said, if China invades Taiwan then we have WWIII on our hands. It's hard to figure out how many assets would be committed to Europe in the event that the U.S. reversed course and put boots on the ground, but they would likely hold reserves that could be moved to Taiwan in the event that China became involved. The Japanese would also commit to defending Taiwan. 

If anything, I can imagine the U.S. becoming involved with the Air Force well before any infantry are involved in Ukraine, even if NATO goes in. Bombing runs and air superiority, missile strikes. I genuinely don't think we get here, though, unless something drastically changes. From what I can gather, Ukraine is largely on its own for the near future. 

I think the timeline of us getting involved depends on the effects to our economy in the short term. We will put boots on the ground. We have already increased our troop numbers in neighboring countries of Ukraine. This whole thing has a bad feel about it. Like a long highway without any exits. 

[Sled21]

(02-24-2022, 03:15 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Cries of energy independence from people who support a political party that routinely seeks to dismantle and undermine domestic initiatives and innovations based solely upon them being "too green" ring hollow to me, honestly. 

When a viable green alternative is invented, we'll be all for it. Nuclear, build them. Wind, not reliable and no way to dispose of the blades. Solar, not reliable and the panels wear out before they are paid for. Battery storage capabilites, not there yet. Hydrogen, all for it, build fuel cell vehicles. But we are not getting away from fossil fuels unless we go nuclear. Period.

[Dill]

(02-24-2022, 12:46 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: If there are missile remains in the city, it is a wayward strike. The Russians are not bombing or shelling population centers. The initial attacks are on command and control centers, the military communication grid, the Ukrainian air defense network, etc., all of which are located in the countryside outside of major cities. They especially need that air defense network down to establish air superiority. This is why they are reporting that the Russians have lost six jets so far.

The Russians don't need to direct attacks against civilian population centers. News of the missile strikes and Russians crossing the borders are more than sufficient to spread terror without causing civilian casualties. The unfortunate fact is that most Ukrainians did not think that Putin would do it.

Well said, though I question two points.   I don't think the missle strikes were "wayward." First of all there were multiple hits on Kyiv. Likely they are, as you say, taking out com/control centers. 

I'm not sure most Ukrainians thought Putin wouldn't invade. I think their president was minimizing the possibility. But they have already lost over 10,000 killed on both sides since 2014. That's almost double US losses in ME wars, and their pop is only 40 million.

This will be an interesting conflict for arms dealers, a contrast to the kind of insurgencies we have seen in the ME where one side is vastly underarmed with no chance to taking down jets. 

In this regard, I am most curious about the kinds of causalities the Ukrainians inflict without our AA and AT missiles.

[*Nately120*]

(02-24-2022, 03:23 PM)Sled21 Wrote: When a viable green alternative is invented, we'll be all for it. 

I think it takes more of an active hand than this, but it wouldn't surprise me if we wait until someone else makes green energy efficient enough for us to cherry pick it.  That seems to be more our style these days, to hang back and wait for someone else to do it.

[WeezyBengal]

(02-24-2022, 03:17 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The sanctions will be effective against Russia's economy...whether or not an untouchable plutocrat like Putin will be affected any time before his so-called electorate can no longer survive is the question.

They won't be. I'm sure he knew sanctions would come and he still acted regardless. He doesn't care. 

[GMDino]

(02-24-2022, 03:23 PM)Sled21 Wrote: When a viable green alternative is invented, we'll be all for it. Nuclear, build them. Wind, not reliable and no way to dispose of the blades. Solar, not reliable and the panels wear out before they are paid for. Battery storage capabilites, not there yet. Hydrogen, all for it, build fuel cell vehicles. But we are not getting away from fossil fuels unless we go nuclear. Period.

You really posted the bold but think nuclear is ok?

Yeah, no problems with the waste there.  

[WeezyBengal]

(02-24-2022, 01:50 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You think Putin will start a nuclear war that will end in the utter destruction of his country and all its people?  You're clearly not familiar with the concept of the small dog barking the loudest.  In any event, what's to stop him from making the same threat when he invades anywhere else?  You want to curl into a ball because of the above statement?  Well, that's exactly what he's counting on.

He just started a pointless war that could end in the utter destruction of his country and it's people. You really think he cares about his people? 

Give me a break. 

[WeezyBengal]

(02-24-2022, 03:41 PM)GMDino Wrote: You really posted the bold but think nuclear is ok?

Yeah, no problems with the waste there.  

Nuclear is a clean energy. There is VERY little waste that comes along with it.