Stock Market Tanking

[ballsofsteel]

Haven't heard anything from Trump on the Stock Market going down. He was pounding his chest when it was going up all because of him, so he said. (as we know it was heading up thanks to Obama anyhow). Wonder who or what the administration will blame it on?

[fredtoast]

The market has been swinging wildly for a while. So far it has bounced back to make up the losses but something is seriously wrong.

Even the so called "experts" have never been able to accurately predict what the market will do. It is a bigger crap shoot than most want to admit.

[*michaelsean*]

There are ways to invest that will produce positive results over a long term, but the people out there shouting the sky is falling or you're going to make a ton are guessing. I thought this recent downturn was because people were saying there could be a recession next year.

[GMDino]

(12-19-2018, 01:07 PM)michaelsean Wrote: There are ways to invest that will produce positive results over a long term, but the people out there shouting the sky is falling or you're going to make a ton are guessing.  I thought this recent downturn was because people were saying there could be a recession next year.

There are a multitude of legitimate reasons for the ups and downs and volatility of the market.  And the are plenty of non-legitimate reasons that get bandied about.

Big reason why I don't want social security funds placed in the hands of the traders.  But I digress...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/19/trump-celebrated-dow-year-one-promising-better-it-got-much-worse/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e7d4e4f457e2

Second worst second year of a presidency since GW in 2002.

Lot's of reasons, and I do not praise or blame the POTUS for most of them.  But his recklessness is making traders nervous rather than being a steadying influence and that is not helping.

[Au165]

(12-19-2018, 12:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The market has been swinging wildly for a while. So far it has bounced back to make up the losses but something is seriously wrong.

Even the so called "experts" have never been able to accurately predict what the market will do. It is a bigger crap shoot than most want to admit.

No, but you can for the most part hedge your bets and predict it will go up over a long enough period. 

[6andcounting]

Trump says the feds shouldn't raise rates because it's bad for the market.


Fed raises rates.


Market drops.


"this is Trumps fault"

[treee]

(12-20-2018, 07:36 AM)6andcounting Wrote: Trump says the feds shouldn't raise rates because it's bad for the market.


Fed raises rates.


Market drops.


"this is Trumps fault"

 Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought Economic Growth was cyclical. The stronger the growth cycle, the stronger the inevitable downturn will be. This is why you raise rates when it's hot to slow down the growth, and lower rates when it cools down to keep it from falling too far. Overall it leads to more stable growth over the long term.

[GMDino]

(12-20-2018, 07:36 AM)6andcounting Wrote: Trump says the feds shouldn't raise rates because it's bad for the market.


Fed raises rates.


Market drops.


"this is Trumps fault"

It's not Trump's fault...at least not entirely.  As I said his recklessness and some of his "ideas" (trade wars are easy to win?) don't help.

But he does show a basic lack of understanding of WHY things happen.

I'm not happy with another increase either.  But DJT getting one (obvious?) thing right doesn't mean he's to blame or not to blame because of that one thing.

And his detractors (of which there are many) will gladly point out that he took full credit for the rising stock market that had been trending that way for 7+ years but will blame everyone else for the falling market because there is no way he has any part of it.

That is a natural occurrence (taking credit/taking no blame) but DJT has raised it to an artform...and his supporters eat it up.

[6andcounting]

(12-20-2018, 07:44 AM)treee Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought Economic Growth was cyclical. The stronger the growth cycle, the stronger the inevitable downturn will be. This is why you raise rates when it's hot to slow down the growth, and lower rates when it cools down to keep it from falling too far. Overall it leads to more stable growth over the long term.

It's cyclical, but still trends upward over time. The bigger the growth cycle doesn't necessarily mean the downturn will be that much bigger. The downturn and it's severity has to do with inflation. Inflation goes up when the economy goes up and the Feds try to slow inflation by raising interest rates. (and when the economy is doing poorly, interests rates are dropped low to help the economy, but it raises inflation.) The argument against raising rates is that inflation is not a problem and continuing the growth is worth while. When inflation gets out of control is when the market is going to take the biggest hit. 


For example, Obama's quantitative easing was ridiculed for it's 3% inflation, but the market sored like 40% that year as part of the recovery. In turn when the recovery basically stopped and things became stagnant, Obama bragged how low he got inflation. The real control of the economy is within the Fed and politicians talking points just follow suite. 

[treee]

(12-20-2018, 06:57 PM)6andcounting Wrote: It's cyclical, but still trends upward over time. The bigger the growth cycle doesn't necessarily mean the downturn will be that much bigger. The downturn and it's severity has to do with inflation. Inflation goes up when the economy goes up and the Feds try to slow inflation by raising interest rates. (and when the economy is doing poorly, interests rates are dropped low to help the economy, but it raises inflation.) The argument against raising rates is that inflation is not a problem and continuing the growth is worth while. When inflation gets out of control is when the market is going to take the biggest hit. 


For example, Obama's quantitative easing was ridiculed for it's 3% inflation, but the market sored like 40% that year as part of the recovery. In turn when the recovery basically stopped and things became stagnant, Obama bragged how low he got inflation. The real control of the economy is within the Fed and politicians talking points just follow suite. 

I guess my perspective is after having gone through a recession that severe, I think 'stagnant' is a bit overly pessimistic and 'stabilized' a more appropriate perspective. I'll take steady economic growth over volatility any day.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-19-2018, 01:11 PM)GMDino Wrote: There are a multitude of legitimate reasons for the ups and downs and volatility of the market.  And the are plenty of non-legitimate reasons that get bandied about.

Big reason why I don't want social security funds placed in the hands of the traders.  But I digress...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/19/trump-celebrated-dow-year-one-promising-better-it-got-much-worse/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e7d4e4f457e2

Second worst second year of a presidency since GW in 2002.

Lot's of reasons, and I do not praise or blame the POTUS for most of them.  But his recklessness is making traders nervous rather than being a steadying influence and that is not helping.

Presidents since GW:
-Obama
-Trump

2nd worst out of 2 = 1st place?

Gold Medal.

Either you've gotten your account hijacked by Lucie, or you severely missed the mark of what you were trying to say with that poorly worded factoid.

[GMDino]

(12-20-2018, 08:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Presidents since GW:
-Obama
-Trump

2nd worst out of 2 = 1st place?

Gold Medal.

Either you've gotten your account hijacked by Lucie, or you severely missed the mark of what you were trying to say with that poorly worded factoid.

Of ALL time it is the second worst second year.

From the article I linked:

Quote:As of writing, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are down for the year. For as good as Trump’s first year was — and, in terms of market expansion, it was good — his second year hasn’t been that great. In fact, it’s poised to be one of the worst second years for any president in the history of the Dow in terms of points.

The only one that has been worse? 2002, George W. Bush’s second year in office.

...

Quote:There are some important caveats there. One is that the markets have been very volatile of late, so things could change rapidly. Another is that the Dow is much higher now than it was even two decades ago, meaning that changes have been much larger.

If we look at the change in 2018 to date as a percentage of where it started, 2018 is the eighth-worst second year for any president since William McKinley. The worst was at the outset of the Great Depression in 1930 (when the markets were open more frequently); the best, 1954.

[Belsnickel]

(12-20-2018, 07:36 AM)6andcounting Wrote: Trump says the feds shouldn't raise rates because it's bad for the market.


Fed raises rates.


Market drops.


"this is Trumps fault"

I mean, Trump certainly hasn't helped things with some of his other things. Trade wars aren't exactly a good thing for the markets.

And yeah, raising rates makes the market drop some, but the economy actually needs the rates to be raised. Same for tax rates, but since that is more of a political football it won't be happening.

[NATI BENGALS]

I've had a hard time trusting the "market" since the last recession. Lot of hard working Americans lost their ass and their life savings.

Now im over here investing in a 401k hoping i will have a nest egg and some conman who couldnt run a charity without being a shady crook is running the show and wants to roll back laws designed to protect people like me...

Sure has my confidence

[Goalpost]

With the market lower, people working, in 401ks, are actually buying more stock right now. When it does reverse trend and go back up, you will have more stock in your account doing this. The people getting hurt right now are retired people no longer purchasing stock.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-21-2018, 06:47 AM)Goalpost Wrote: With the market lower, people working, in 401ks, are actually buying more stock right now. When it does reverse trend and go back up, you will have more stock in your account doing this. The people getting hurt right now are retired people no longer purchasing stock.

Retired people who aren’t wealthy shouldn’t be anywhere near the stock market.

[hollodero]

(12-20-2018, 07:36 AM)6andcounting Wrote: Trump says the feds shouldn't raise rates because it's bad for the market.


Fed raises rates.


Market drops.


"this is Trumps fault"

The market is up - it's Trump and only Trump, he deserves all the credit
The market is down - it has nothing to do with Trump, he deserves no blame

[GMDino]

(12-21-2018, 07:54 AM)hollodero Wrote: The market is up - it's Trump and only Trump, he deserves all the credit
The market is down - it has nothing to do with Trump, he deserves no blame

This.

His supporters recognize outside factors when things don't go their way and when they do they give full credit to the neon god they created.

[6andcounting]

(12-21-2018, 07:54 AM)hollodero Wrote: The market is up - it's Trump and only Trump, he deserves all the credit
The market is down - it has nothing to do with Trump, he deserves no blame

(12-21-2018, 08:17 AM)GMDino Wrote: This.

His supporters recognize outside factors when things don't go their way and when they do they give full credit to the neon god they created.

(12-20-2018, 06:57 PM)6andcounting Wrote: For example, Obama's quantitative easing was ridiculed for it's 3% inflation, but the market sored like 40% that year as part of the recovery. In turn when the recovery basically stopped and things became stagnant, Obama bragged how low he got inflation. The real control of the economy is within the Fed and politicians talking points just follow suite. 

[GMDino]

(12-21-2018, 08:27 AM)6andcounting Wrote:

No doubt...but two things:

1) No one said it was EXCLUSIVE to DJT and his supporters.  I said he is the best at it.

2) Maybe I wasn't talking about you?