RED WAVE? Poll Shows Republicans Could Pick Up 9 Senate Seats

[StLucieBengal]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/30223/red-wave-poll-shows-republicans-could-pick-9-ben-shapiro

Once Peace in Korea is finished this election could turn on democrats. GOP plus 9 seats gives them 60 I believe.

I will say down here Nelson is in serious trouble. He will need Tampa and broward/dade to come out big and he still might need some dead and illegals to vote.

Quote: RED WAVE? Poll Shows Republicans Could Pick Up 9 Senate Seats
Ben ShapiroMay 3, 2018

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images
According to new Morning Consult polls, Democrats are in serious trouble in Senate races across the country. Republicans have serious leads in West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin trails by 14 points; North Dakota, where incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp trails by 8; Indiana, where incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly trails by 5; Missouri, where incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill trails by 5; Montana, where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester trails by 5; Florida, where incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson is locked in a near-deadlock with Rick Scott; and Pennsylvania and Ohio, where incumbent Democrats Bill Casey and Sherrod Brown are leading by less than two points each, plus Virginia, where Tim Kaine leads by just 3 on the generic ballot. In the best-case scenario for Republicans, then, they could win up to nine additional Senate seats.

The polls are similarly shoddy in the House of Representatives for Democrats. The RealClearPolitics poll average for the generic ballot has Democrats up 6.7%, but the polls are all over the place: The Economist/YouGov has Democrats with a 3-point lead, Quinnipiac has Democrats with an 8-point lead, as does Monmouth.

The best available data, then, suggest that the Democrats are heavy favorites to take the House, but face a seriously uphill battle to take the Senate from Republicans. This is a rarity in modern politics; the last time a president’s party picked up seats in the Senate but lost seats in the House was Ronald Reagan in 1982 (the Republicans lost 26 House seats but picked up a Senate seat). In 1970, Richard Nixon’s Republicans dropped 12 House seats but picked up two Senate seats; in 1962, Kennedy’s Democrats lost four House seats but gained three Senate seats. Today, Republicans are expected to lose dozens of House seats but could simultaneously pick up a half-dozen Senate seats.

Given our wildly divisive politics, this isn’t particularly shocking. But it is a sign that our national divisions are serious and regional — that politics can’t easily be nationalized. And that means that Trump still has a path in 2020 to victory, if he can eke out wins in the same states he did in 2016.

[*bfine32*]

I think if Nov 2016 showed us one thing it's how stupid folks can look that put a lot of stock in polls.

I do think the GOP will maintain a majority, but I do not see a huge shift/

[Belsnickel]

(05-03-2018, 08:23 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think if Nov 2016 showed us one thing it's how stupid folks can look that put a lot of stock in polls.

I do think the GOP will maintain a majority, but I do not see a huge shift/

To be fair, Morning Consult has some pretty good polling methodology. That being said, what we take away from the data is always somewhat subjective and viewed through the lens of whoever is interpreting it.

As to this report specifically, I read through it earlier today. The impression I get is an overall anti-incumbent vibe. A lot of the results are well within a margin of error for these polls and so it's really too close to call for them. Also, we all know how for a long time these polls have shown people being unhappy with Congress and then people turn around and elect the same people into office. So I don't expect to see much change. The largest impact will be in the races with no incumbents running. That is my guess as to where the difference makers will be coming from.

[StLucieBengal]

(05-03-2018, 08:23 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think if Nov 2016 showed us one thing it's how stupid folks can look that put a lot of stock in polls.

I do think the GOP will maintain a majority, but I do not see a huge shift/

(05-03-2018, 08:48 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: To be fair, Morning Consult has some pretty good polling methodology. That being said, what we take away from the data is always somewhat subjective and viewed through the lens of whoever is interpreting it.

As to this report specifically, I read through it earlier today. The impression I get is an overall anti-incumbent vibe. A lot of the results are well within a margin of error for these polls and so it's really too close to call for them. Also, we all know how for a long time these polls have shown people being unhappy with Congress and then people turn around and elect the same people into office. So I don't expect to see much change. The largest impact will be in the races with no incumbents running. That is my guess as to where the difference makers will be coming from.

I expect the gop will do better than expected. Who knows on how much better. Matt brings up a good point on incumbents. Although down here Nelson was doing well until Rick Scott entered the race. Will be interesting to see how both parties campaign.

[fredtoast]

A lot of the people in the polls that show displeasure with incumbents and congress in general are also the ones who are so disgusted they don't vote.

That is why polls often show incumbents in trouble, but the end up winning anyway.

[*Nately120*]

(05-03-2018, 08:23 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think if Nov 2016 showed us one thing it's how stupid folks can look that put a lot of stock in polls.

In my defense, I didn't think Hillary was going to win until Trump started making a point to talk about how the election was rigged against him.  Usually people don't start playing the "the outcome is fixed" card until they're certain the outcome isn't going to be in their favor.

So, I agree with your sentiment but it's hard to fault regular ol' people for believing the polls when our own president was running scared from the damn things.

[SunsetBengal]

(05-04-2018, 11:03 AM)fredtoast Wrote: A lot of the people in the polls that show displeasure with incumbents and congress in general are also the ones who are so disgusted they don't vote.

That is why polls often show incumbents in trouble, but the end up winning anyway.

Do you really think that is the reason?  Or, could it be that the National Committees spend more money in attempting to keep the incumbent in office?

[*michaelsean*]

(05-04-2018, 07:34 PM)Nately120 Wrote: In my defense, I didn't think Hillary was going to win until Trump started making a point to talk about how the election was rigged against him.  Usually people don't start playing the "the outcome is fixed" card until they're certain the outcome isn't going to be in their favor.

So, I agree with your sentiment but it's hard to fault regular ol' people for believing the polls when our own president was running scared from the damn things.

Well you did a lot better than most of us who assumed Hillary had it locked up.

[fredtoast]

(05-04-2018, 07:45 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Do you really think that is the reason?  Or, could it be that the National Committees spend more money in attempting to keep the incumbent in office?

Most districts are already controlled by one party.  The only real competition is in the party primaries.  And in those situations the National Party does not really care that much.

Whenever there is a contested race in a general election the nationalparty for BOTH sides dump tons of money into it.

[ballsofsteel]

When I first read the title of this post, I thought the op was referring to Drumph's romance with Putin and Russia.

[GMDino]

(05-05-2018, 08:58 AM)ballsofsteel Wrote: When I first read the title of this post, I thought the op was referring to Drumph's romance with Putin and Russia.

Maybe that's what they refer to water sports as in "certain" russian countries. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-05-2018, 08:58 AM)ballsofsteel Wrote: When I first read the title of this post, I thought the op was referring to Drumph's romance with Putin and Russia.

(05-05-2018, 11:46 AM)GMDino Wrote: Maybe that's what they refer to water sports as in "certain" russian countries. 

[GMDino]

(05-09-2018, 12:01 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

Given the topic I don't want to know what is in that cup.... " "

[StLucieBengal]

CNN latest poll showing dem lead. Down to 3 with enthusiasm dropping, while gop enthusiasm is rising.

NK peace might put the gop in a nice place come November.

https://youtu.be/M9Twq25DkH0