Swing State Polling April 23, 2024

[Luvnit2]

As we edge closer to election day in November, Trump leads Biden in 6 of the 7-swing stated. Biden leads in Michigan only.

The poll criteria they use is based on history and does not take into account any movement either way with any demographic. If Biden got 88% of the black vote in a state in 2020, that is applied to the formula in these polls. If Trump receives 16% of the black vote for example, Biden may be in deep trouble.

Biden is also only down 1 point in Pa. and is doing better Nationally than he was 30 days ago.

You can also click on individual poll results once on the link. I did copy and paste, but much easier to see by clicking on the link.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

RACE
POLL
RESULTS
SPREAD
Wednesday, April 24[b][/b]
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 48, Biden 44
Trump
+4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 49, Biden 42
Trump
+7
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 49, Biden 43
Trump
+6
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 45, Biden 47
Biden
+2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Biden 46, Trump 47
Trump
+1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump
+10
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump
+8
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 44, Biden 41, Kennedy 8, Stein 1, West 1
Trump
+3
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 46, Biden 40, Kennedy 7, West 2, Stein 0
Trump
+6
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 47, Biden 39, Kennedy 5, West 1, Stein 1
Trump
+8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 40, Biden 43, Kennedy 7, Stein 1, West 1
Biden
+3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 43, Biden 42, Kennedy 8, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 48, Biden 38, Kennedy 5, West 1, Stein 0
Trump
+10
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Bloomberg/MrnConsult
Trump 48, Biden 34, Kennedy 7, West 2, Stein 3
Trump
+14
General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Quinnipiac
Trump 46, Biden 46
Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Quinnipiac
Trump 37, Biden 37, Kennedy 16, West 3, Stein 3
Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Economist/YouGov
Trump 43, Biden 43, Kennedy 3, West 0, Stein 0
Tie
President Biden Job Approval
Quinnipiac
Approve 35, Disapprove 61
Disapprove
+26
President Biden Job Approval
Monmouth
Approve 41, Disapprove 56
Disapprove
+15
President Biden Job Approval
Rasmussen Reports
Approve 39, Disapprove 60
Disapprove
+21
President Biden Job Approval
Economist/YouGov
Approve 41, Disapprove 58
Disapprove
+17
2024 Generic Congressional Vote
Economist/YouGov
Democrats 44, Republicans 42
Democrats
+2
Congressional Job Approval
Economist/YouGov
Approve 13, Disapprove 70
Disapprove
+57
Congressional Job Approval
Monmouth
Approve 12, Disapprove 81
Disapprove
+69
Direction of Country
Monmouth
Right Direction 18, Wrong Track 69
Wrong Track
+51
Direction of Country
Economist/YouGov
Right Direction 23, Wrong Track 70
Wrong Track
+47

[Luvnit2]

So many liberals in this forum, yet no opinion on POTUS polling conducted on April 24.

How are trials and attempts to lock up Trump going for Biden?

[*Nately120*]

(04-25-2024, 12:44 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: So many liberals in this forum, yet no opinion on POTUS polling conducted on April 24.

Right now the betting markets have "democratic" as the favorite to win AZ, MI, NV, PA and WI.  Things can change and Trump outperforms his GOP underlings, but according to the polls in 2022 Kari Lake is the governor of AZ and Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz are senators.  Are polls overestimating swing-state republicans again?  Does it matter since it's a national election?  Is RFK going to take from the Biden or the Trump column? Who knows?

Liberals can look at these polls and say "nuh uh" but conservatives also looked at polls that showed Nikki Haley polled better than Trump and said "nuh uh" themselves, so again...as Simon and Garfunkel sang:  A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Lie-la-lie

Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-la-lie
Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie, lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

Lie-la-lie

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-25-2024, 12:56 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Right now the betting markets have "democratic" as the favorite to win AZ, MI, NV, PA and WI.  Things can change and Trump outperforms his GOP underlings, but according to the polls in 2022 Kari Lake is the governor of AZ and Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz are senators.  Are polls overestimating swing-state republicans again?  Does it matter since it's a national election?  Is RFK going to take from the Biden or the Trump column? Who knows?

Liberals can look at these polls and say "nuh uh" but conservatives also looked at polls that showed Nikki Haley polled better than Trump and said "nuh uh" themselves, so again...as Simon and Garfunkel sang:  A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Lie-la-lie

Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-la-lie
Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie, lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

Lie-la-lie

Tune in next week at same bat time same bat channel.

[*pally*]

(04-25-2024, 12:56 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Right now the betting markets have "democratic" as the favorite to win AZ, MI, NV, PA and WI.  Things can change and Trump outperforms his GOP underlings, but according to the polls in 2022 Kari Lake is the governor of AZ and Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz are senators.  Are polls overestimating swing-state republicans again?  Does it matter since it's a national election?  Is RFK going to take from the Biden or the Trump column? Who knows?

Liberals can look at these polls and say "nuh uh" but conservatives also looked at polls that showed Nikki Haley polled better than Trump and said "nuh uh" themselves, so again...as Simon and Garfunkel sang:  A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Lie-la-lie

Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-la-lie
Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie, lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

Lie-la-lie

4 out of 5 of those states WI, AZ, MI, and PA,  have nearly broke GOP state committees and in Nevada, the Democratic committee has a large cash advantage, abortion referendums might be on the ballots in NV and AZ which will drive turnout. Pennsylvania's recent closed primary had Nikki Haley receiving nearly 17% of the vote,  Previously polls have indicated that many Haley voters will vote for Biden in the General Election.  

The polls don't match what we are seeing from other actions.

[Luvnit2]

(04-25-2024, 12:56 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Right now the betting markets have "democratic" as the favorite to win AZ, MI, NV, PA and WI.  Things can change and Trump outperforms his GOP underlings, but according to the polls in 2022 Kari Lake is the governor of AZ and Hershel Walker and Dr. Oz are senators.  Are polls overestimating swing-state republicans again?  Does it matter since it's a national election?  Is RFK going to take from the Biden or the Trump column? Who knows?

Liberals can look at these polls and say "nuh uh" but conservatives also looked at polls that showed Nikki Haley polled better than Trump and said "nuh uh" themselves, so again...as Simon and Garfunkel sang:  A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

Lie-la-lie

Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie
Lie-la-lie
Lie-la-lie-lie-lie-lie-lie, lie-lie-lie-lie-lie

Lie-la-lie

Maybe you some do some research prior to making an uninformed post. Refer to 2020 POTUS election polling in late April of 2020.

As for betting, where can I go and place my bets. 

Polling suggests otherwise, so I should get a great return on any win since Biden is favored. Also, betting sites make their money off the juice, so lines are designed to get more people to vote. More people who vote, more money they make. 

[*pally*]

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

[*Nately120*]

(04-25-2024, 01:10 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Maybe you some do some research prior to making an uninformed post. Refer to 2020 POTUS election polling in late April of 2020.

As for betting, where can I go and place my bets. 

Polling suggests otherwise, so I should get a great return on any win since Biden is favored. Also, betting sites make their money off the juice, so lines are designed to get more people to vote. More people who vote, more money they make. 

Ok have it your way, Trump is gonna win.  Geez.  What are you going to do first when Trump wins?

[hollodero]

(04-25-2024, 12:44 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: So many liberals in this forum, yet no opinion on POTUS polling conducted on April 24.

What is there to say really? Polls are close, that's not news and you yourself have posted around 10.000 polling results as of now indicating as much. And it seems not long ago there was bipartisan agreement that polls are quite inaccurate and don't mean all that much.

[*Nately120*]

(04-25-2024, 02:47 PM)hollodero Wrote: What is there to say really? Polls are close, that's not news and you yourself have posted around 10.000 polling results as of now indicating as much. And it seems not long ago there was bipartisan agreement that polls are quite inaccurate and don't mean all that much.

I may even be so bold as to say any poll that shows Trump up to Biden being up by a wee bit benefits Biden, mostly because democrats clearly vote better when they're scurred the other side will win.

If there is one thing I've noticed during the Trump era of politics, in 2016, 2020, and 2022 (I'm not actually sure what the polls and narrative going into the 2018 midterm were), the side that is convinced they have it "in the bag" underperforms.  Dems and Hillary were sure they had 2016 won, the 2016 polling errors had Trump fans convinced he'd win in 2020 because polls saying Biden were up were met with "remember 2016?" and 2022 was supposed to be a red tsunami that turned into dems gaining in the senate and republicans getting a wafer thin majority in the house.

For what it's worth, any time there is a post on reddit about Biden gaining or being up the comment section is full of "DON'T GET COMPLACENT, VOTE!!!" comments.  I knew a lot of people going into 2020 who were voting Biden and were sick with worry that he was going to lose, quite the difference from how blasé they were about Trump's chances in 2016.  I'm not saying polls saying Trump are up are a good sign for Biden, but I am saying that complacency has clearly been the downfall of the non-Trump vote so if I want Trump to win I wouldn't want to jostle people too much about how he's going to win. 

[Luvnit2]

The corrupt Biden DOJ and Biden's poor polices have the Trump supporters fired up.

For example, look way back at some of my posts, I was ready to move to Haley or another GOP candidate.

But now I just donated $500 to a G.O.P. P.A.C. yesterday. I also donated $300 yesterday to a P.A.C. for Trump.

Those who think true Trump supporters ever left for Haley are fooling themselves. Heck, even the big money doners are back on the Trump train as is the governor from New Hampshire that campaigned for Haley.

As for Haley, she has confirmed over and over again she is a Republican. She will never support Biden or an Independent candidate.

[Arturo Bandini]

Don't listen to the polls, vote.