Syrian Hmong

[CJD]

(10-07-2019, 09:29 PM)Dill Wrote: Should we be "in for a pound" in Syria then?  

Wondering what the Kurds will do with 60,000 ISIS members and families when the Turks come calling.

(I'd at least make them PROMISE not to be bad again before letting them go.)

I mean yea.

If we leave Syria now and just hope the Kurds secure those camps despite the Turkish threats, then ISIS will bound up again as soon as the Kurds retreat/ are killed/ abandon the camps.

[GMDino]

What y'all are missing is that this decision is "just business".

Why ask military people when you are so "good" at making businesses decisions?

.....good health, at my request, Pastor Brunson, who had many years of a long prison term remaining. Also remember, and importantly, that Turkey is an important member in good standing of NATO. He is coming to the U.S. as my guest on November 13th. #ENDENDLESSWARS

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 8, 2019

 

[Dill]

(10-08-2019, 10:08 AM)GMDino Wrote: What y'all are missing is that this decision is "just business".

Why ask military people when you are so "good" at making businesses decisions?

.....good health, at my request, Pastor Brunson, who had many years of a long prison term remaining. Also remember, and importantly, that Turkey is an important member in good standing of NATO. He is coming to the U.S. as my guest on November 13th. #ENDENDLESSWARS

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 8, 2019

 

Well there is an excellent point. 

Just how crucial are the Kurds to manufacture of US military hardware? A cursory google search gives a preliminary answer of "not at all."

Add to this the fact that we are GIVING them arms all the time, and you can see they are more a drain on our treasury than a business partner.
Whereas Turkey buys our stuff and allows us to own hotels in their cities, these Kurds are, to put it less diplomatically, beggars who want our stuff.

I suppose military types might ask "How good have the Turks been at fighting ISIS, compared to the Kurds"? 

Well they may have been good or bad. Who knows? Now that ISIS has somehow been defeated and Raqqa destroyed we need to respect the interests of the people we are doing business with.

[fredtoast]

(10-07-2019, 06:50 PM)Dill Wrote:
Do you think the abandonment of the Kurds was/is unavoidable?


Also, a general question for anyone--how is this abandonment, if it goes forward, likely to affect foreign policy in the future? E.g., how might it affect future attempts to develop proxies and alliances in world hot spots?

Related red cap exercise: how might Putin, China or Iran view the US withdrawal from Syria?  Strengthening or weakening the US?

Do these questions matter at all to people who just want the US to disentangle itself entirely from the Middle East and/or the Far EAst?

I don't have answers for all of this.

My first rule of justifying any US intervention in foreign affairs is to be part of a coalition.  And creating a coalition that includes parties who are enemies with each other is never going to end well.

[Dill]

(10-08-2019, 07:41 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I mean yea.

If we leave Syria now and just hope the Kurds secure those camps despite the Turkish threats, then ISIS will bound up again as soon as the Kurds retreat/ are killed/ abandon the camps.

C'mon C-dawg.

I'm sure the Kurds have the resources to manage those camps just fine while the Turkish military is clearing the Peshmerga from the territory they took from ISIS, proxy fighting for us.

You can't think they would just say "eff it" and open the gates, loosing a flood of TEN THOUSAND ISIS FIGHTERS back into the Syrian quagmire?

Even if they did, Trump says we can just send our military back into harm's way again.  So not really a problem.  I'm sure our allies will all be ready to help us again too. We could probably get the Kurds to trust us again too, if we know the art of the deal.

Also, ISIS refugees have probably learned their lesson by now, and lessened their hostility towards us.

[CJD]

(10-08-2019, 11:51 AM)Dill Wrote: C'mon C-dawg.

I'm sure the Kurds have the resources to manage those camps just fine while the Turkish military is clearing the Peshmerga from the territory they took from ISIS, proxy fighting for us.

You can't think they would just say "eff it" and open the gates, loosing a flood of TEN THOUSAND ISIS FIGHTERS back into the Syrian quagmire?

Even if they did, Trump says we can just send our military back into harm's way again.  So not really a problem.  I'm sure our allies will all be ready to help us again too. We could probably get the Kurds to trust us again too, if we know the art of the deal.

Also, ISIS refugees have probably learned their lesson by now, and lessened their hostility towards us.

Well, when you put it that way, how could I argue otherwise

[Dill]

(10-08-2019, 11:50 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't have answers for all of this.

My first rule of justifying any US intervention in foreign affairs is to be part of a coalition.  And creating a coalition that includes parties who are enemies with each other is never going to end well.

The ISIS "intervention" was carried out by a coalition for sure.

The US also constructed a coalition to go after Saddam in 1990-91, and it included mutual enemies--just that Saddam, like ISIS now, was considered a greater enemy.  That CAN work. So those boxes are checked.

As far as abandonment of the Kurds though, from my point of view it was certainly avoidable. 

Right now it is hard to assess much, because we don't know what the Turkish invasion will look like. Will they assume responsibility for detention camps as the Kurds make an orderly withdrawal? Will they displace Kurds who have been living for generations in areas to be cleared? They are currently NATO members and have applied to the EU--and a bloody sweep of former US allies living on foreign soil would pretty much end accession to the latter. Will the US continue supplying the Kurds military needs? So the degree to which we have abandoned Kurds is not all that clear.

It is clear, though, that Turkey was not ready to undertake this move without a US OK. And NO ONE in the foreign policy establishment, from the far right to the center (no real leftists there), agreed with the sudden green light to a Turkish military sweep of regions cleared of ISIS by Peshmerga blood.  (American special forces who fought alongside the Kurds must be especially enraged.)  And this is complicated because, more so than the previous Syrian withdrawal order, this one sets Turkey in motion if not quickly rescinded.

The US clearly could have maintained the coalition status quo in the region--a coalition which included Turkey and fought in the national interest of Turkey.  At least there is no clear reason at present why Turkey would seriously contest that status quo, should the US NOT want that.

It looks like Trump, with his own interests foremost in mind, unimpeded by knowledge of the history and current architecture of US foreign policy in the region, decided to "help out a buddy," because, you know, HE CAN. There might have been consideration of his own properties in Turkey, and additional calculation that his base would approve of "getting out of the ME," or at least one part of it.  This would make sense to someone who had no idea where ISIS came from and who the Kurds were. "ISIS is finished.  So why stay? Why keep giving aid to foreigners? Why are we protecting Turkey and Syrian refugees? America first for a change."

Random decisions like this are not the product of military or diplomatic necessity. And suddenly, no leader in the region can "read" US policy and intentions, plan with them in mind.

[Dill]

Russia is moving to fill in the vacuum now.

Hours after Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Turkey's economy should Ankara do anything that he considers "off limits," Moscow struck a different tone. On Oct. 7, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, following the drawdown of US troops and the launch of the Turkish operation, reiterated Russia’s recognition of “Turkey’s right to ensure its security,” but conditioned it with several important don’ts.

“We haven’t been informed on the American pullout," Peskov said. "But you know, there were different statements about withdrawals from other parts of the world that have never materialized. We are observing the situation carefully.” He also denied that Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had discussed Ankara’s plans to carry out a military operation in northeastern Syria. Yet he did say that the “Russian and Turkish militaries and intelligence agencies maintain close contact.”...

In this tug of war for Turkey, Russia has positioned itself as a more pragmatic, predictable and “delivering” partner than the United States. Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey.

In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. First, you need to demonstrate empathy on issues that are sensitive and important to Turkish security. Second, clearly outline your own red lines and a corridor of opportunities for future cooperation on these issues. Third, take advantage of mistakes made by the other party whose position is important to Ankara — the United States — and use the contrast to your advantage. The statement by Kremlin’s spokesman reveals the ABCs of Russia's approach to Turkey.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/10/russia-turkey-operation-syria-us-kurds.html#ixzz61prdZujt

In this tug of war for Turkey, Russia has positioned itself as a more pragmatic, predictable and “delivering” partner than the United States. Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey.

In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. First, you need to demonstrate empathy on issues that are sensitive and important to Turkish security. Second, clearly outline your own red lines and a corridor of opportunities for future cooperation on these issues. Third, take advantage of mistakes made by the other party whose position is important to Ankara — the United States — and use the contrast to your advantage. The statement by Kremlin’s spokesman reveals the ABCs of Russia's approach to Turkey.

... By not preventing Turkey from launching its military offensive, Russia exploits Washington’s wedges with both Ankara and the Kurds. Russia expects, and not without good reason, to subsequently lead a two-track mediation between the Syrian government and the Kurds, and Damascus and Ankara.

Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/10/russia-turkey-operation-syria-us-kurds.html#ixzz61prDTr6H

[Dill]

Trump has handed over Isis fight in Syria, Turkey says, as offensive looms: Ankara says military will cross border ‘shortly’, and claims US president gave green light, contradicting US denials
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/09/turkey-trump-isis-fight-in-syria-offensive-looms

The Turkish government claimed that Donald Trump has handed it the leadership of the military campaign against Isis, and warned its forces would be crossing into Syria “shortly”.

Kurdish military leaders inside Syria said they were braced for the invasion and claimed there had been an Isis attack on its former stronghold of Raqqa. But reports from the city suggested the attack had been small scale.

However, it deepened Kurdish fears they would soon find themselves fighting on several fronts, against Turkey, Isis and possibly Iranian or Russian-backed units aligned with Damascus, all without US support.

A spokesman for the Turkish president, Recep Tayyap Erdoğan, justified the impending invasion by saying that Trump, in a telephone conversation with Erdoğan on Sunday, had handed Turkey the mantle of the counter-Isis battle that the US has been waging alongside Kurdish forces since late 2014.

Fahrettin Altun, Erdoğan’s communications director and one of his closest aides, suggested Trump had given the Turkish leader the green light for an invasion, contradicting denials from White House officials.

“During a phone call with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday, President Trump agreed to transfer the leadership of the counter-Islamic State campaign to Turkey,” Altun wrote in a commentary in the Washington Post published on Tuesday evening. “The Turkish military, together with the Free Syrian Army, will cross the Turkish-Syrian border shortly....

Early on Monday, US special forces near the Syrian-Turkish border were ordered to withdraw from their posts, to the surprise of Americans and Kurdish commanders. The Pentagon said on Tuesday the redeployment was necessary to avoid US troops being caught in the crossfire.

“Unfortunately, Turkey has chosen to act unilaterally,” Jonathan Hoffman, chief Pentagon spokesman, said. “As a result we have moved the US forces in northern Syria out of the path of potential Turkish incursion to ensure their safety. We have made no changes to our force presence in Syria at this time.”

There are also British and French special forces in the region and in the event of a major Turkish-Kurdish conflict the Guardian understands they would be tasked with the bolstering the security of camps where captured Isis fighters are being guarded by the Kurds.


....“Russia and Turkey have already discussed Turkey’s upcoming operation,” Jennifer Cafarella, research director at the Institute for the Study of War, said. “Russia supports it at least tacitly and may actually have entered into a general agreement with Turkey on the shape of what is to come in the north-east.”

Joseph Votel, who headed US central command until March and was instrumental in establishing the partnership with the Kurds, said the abrupt policy decision to seemingly abandon Washington’s Kurdish partners could not have come at a worse time.

In an article he co-written on the Defense One military news site, Votel said: “This policy abandonment threatens to undo five years’ worth of fighting against Isis and will severely damage American credibility and reliability in any future fights where we need strong allies.”

[jj22]

The massacre has begun. Airstrikes are underway.

Prayers for the Kurds as they are getting wiped out.

[Dill]

(10-09-2019, 10:29 AM)jj22 Wrote: The massacre has begun. Airstrikes are underway.
Prayers for the Kurds as they are getting wiped out.

Looks like the Kurds are getting hammered from two groups: Turkey and a resurgent ISIL.

Beyond the foreign policy establishment and the military, do US voters care about this at all?

Turkey begins attack on Kurds in northeast Syria, Erdoğan announces
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/09/syrian-kurds-call-civilians-front-lines-turkey-warns-attack/

Mustafa Bali, an SDF spokesman, confirmed that the attack had begun. "Turkish warplanes have started to carry out airstrikes on civilian areas. There is a huge panic among people of the region," he said.

Kurdish and Arab civilians began fleeing from the border towns in the face of the offensive, according to Kurdish media.

Local authorities earlier declared a state of emergency and called on civilian volunteers to head to the front lines. 

US officials meanwhile reportedly said they had no plans to take control of prisons holding Islamic State (Isil) suspects if their Kurdish guards withdrew, further raising fears that jihadists could escape amid the offensive.  . . .[/i]

While the SDF proved adept at combating Isil, they lack heavy weaponry and anti-aircraft equipment and are likely to struggle in a confrontation with Turkey’s modern military. 

[The Kurds] position has been further weakened after they agreed to demolish their fortifications in the area at the request of the US, which as recently as last weekend was still trying to broker a compromise to forestall a Turkish offensive.   . . .

Meanwhile, Isil fighters attacked an SDF position in Raqqa, the former capital of their so-called caliphate, in an apparent effort to capitalise on the confusion caused by the looming Turkish attack.

Three suicide bombers struck an SDF position in the centre of the city late Tuesday in what the SDF called “the initial repercussions of the Turkish attack”. There were no immediate reports of casualties from the attack.  . . .

US officials told the Washington Post they had no plans to intervene and seize control of the string of Kurdish prisons where thousands of Isil fighters, including British jihadists, are being held. 

The SDF have warned they may have no choice but to abandon the prisons and send all available forces north to confront Turkish troops on the border.

[jj22]

For Trump and his supporters/defenders, their only true Ally is Russia who is pulling all strings as it relates to Ukraine and Syria.

How can his defenders support Trump turning America over to Russia like this? All for politics.

The blood of our Ally is on Trumps hands.

[Dill]

(10-09-2019, 12:26 PM)jj22 Wrote: For Trump and his supporters/defenders, their only true Ally is Russia who is pulling all strings as it relates to Ukraine and Syria.

How can his defenders support Trump turning America over to Russia like this? All for politics.

The blood of our Ally is on Trumps hands.

I don't think Trump supporters follow foreign policy much. 

The ME is just a mess they don't understand, so they want to get out. 

Except for Israel, which the US is supposed to protect until God's plan works itself out.

[*bfine32*]

(10-09-2019, 12:26 PM)jj22 Wrote: For Trump and his supporters/defenders, their only true Ally is Russia who is pulling all strings as it relates to Ukraine and Syria.

How can his defenders support Trump turning America over to Russia like this? All for politics.

The blood of our Ally is on Trumps hands.

As a proclaimed "Trump supporter" in this forum. I recall being in the minority when I disagreed with our decision to pull Troops out of Syria. You might want to fully understand was going on in this situation before assigning blame to a group.

[jj22]

(10-09-2019, 02:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As a proclaimed "Trump supporter" in this forum. I recall being in the minority when I disagreed with our decision to pull Troops out of Syria. You might want to fully understand was going on in this situation before assigning blame to a group.

I'm actual with you on foreign policy (one of the few things we agree on in this forumn), so no shots at you.

[*bfine32*]

My man Lindsey Graham speaking up:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/lindsey-graham-says-trumps-shameless-abandonment-of-kurds-will-revive-isis-terrorists-171235597.html

Quote:Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has been one of President Trump’s strongest allies in the Senate, on Wednesday said Kurdish fighters in Syria had been “shamelessly abandoned by the Trump Administration” in its sudden decision to pull U.S. troops from northern Syria, leaving America’s longtime allies in the fight against the Islamic State group exposed to an attack by Turkey.

“I hope he’s right — I don’t think so. I know that every military person has told him don’t do this,” Graham said in an appearance on “Fox & Friends.” “If he follows through with this, it’d be the biggest mistake of his presidency.”

[Dill]

(10-09-2019, 02:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As a proclaimed "Trump supporter" in this forum. I recall being in the minority when I disagreed with our decision to pull Troops out of Syria. You might want to fully understand was going on in this situation before assigning blame to a group.

So far as I know, you are only a Trump "defender." You are not "for" Trump; just "against" those who question his honesty, competence and sanity, supposedly because they hate him, not because of his record of dishonest, incompetent, and borderline psychotic behavior.

But you are saying you, JJ and I were a minority in opposing the first pullout? (B-zona did not support that either, did he?) Perhaps, but I don't recall you elaborating on what that, and the resignation of his most important foreign policy advisors, suggested about Trump's competence. Here is chance to tell us what you really think.

Probably better than anyone in this forum, you know how closely American military members may bond with indigenous soldiers they fight alongside. For three decades Kurdish fighters have viewed the US as their closest ally; and they have stood by the US in the fight against Saddam and ISIS, putting their bodies on the line.

Now the US soldiers who fought along side the Kurds in the recent campaign against ISIS have been pulled back and told to stand down. The Kurds, with no air power or heavy artillery, are absorbing attacks from both Turkey and ISIS, and, out of military necessity, may have to abandon camps holding some 10,000 ISIS fighters. The Pentagon is very unhappy with this situation, and our allies are blindsided.

Do you think (as I do) that this green light to Turkey was a very bad military/foreign policy decision which is part of a larger pattern, including the busted the Iran Deal? Or is it the one-off error of a president whose foreign policy is otherwise just fine, an error which will soon fade from the front pages? Some other option?

[ballsofsteel]

Maybe Turkey issued a Quid pro quo to Trump to pull our troops out of Syria or His Trump Towers in Istanbul might get blown up by bad people.

[Bengalzona]

I feel sympathy for the Kurds. They fought for us and we turned our backs.

Then again, it isn't the first time we have done this:

There were the Iraqis who helped us and served in our Army. We promised they could come to the U.S. Most are still in Iraq.

There were the tribesmen in Afghanistan who we used to kick the Soviets out. Then we walked away and let the Taliban have the country.

There were the Hmong in Vietnam who sided with us against North Vietnam and the Viet Cong. Some were allowed to come to America. Most retreated illegally to the jungles of Southeast Laos dodging the Laotian Army and trying to survive amid the hundreds of thousands or air-dropped land mines and unexploded ordinance we left there.

At some point, this all becomes like Lucy pulling the football up in front of Charlie Brown.... except people are dying. Sooner or later, people will get the message: "Don't trust the Americans"

[Dill]

(10-09-2019, 06:25 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: I feel sympathy for the Kurds. They fought for us and we turned our backs.

Then again, it isn't the first time we have done this:

There were the Iraqis who helped us and served in our Army. We promised they could come to the U.S. Most are still in Iraq.

There were the tribesmen in Afghanistan who we used to kick the Soviets out. Then we walked away and let the Taliban have the country.

There were the Hmong in Vietnam who sided with us against North Vietnam and the Viet Cong. Some were allowed to come to America. Most retreated illegally to the jungles of Southeast Laos dodging the Laotian Army and trying to survive amid the hundreds of thousands or air-dropped land mines and unexploded ordinance we left there.

At some point, this all becomes like Lucy pulling the football up in front of Charlie Brown.... except people are dying. Sooner or later, people will get the message: "Don't trust the Americans"