The Elephant In The Room

[BmorePat87]

(04-28-2020, 03:22 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Funny, I asked how any based on testing and you jump to estimates> Why? Because the number actually tested fro swine flu was far less than has been tested for this flu? This will go down as the biggest economic colossal ______ in US history thanks to to the Chinese and WHO.

This isn't a flu... you can't complain about having your post deemed "misinformed" if you're going to refer to a coronavirus as a "flu". Influenza and coronaviruses spread, manifest, and are treated very differently. 

Is there a point you were trying to make that required us to only use confirmed cases and not the more accurate estimated total? Either way, the data would show that this is a far bigger health crisis than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-28-2020, 05:44 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: This isn't a flu... you can't complain about having your post deemed "misinformed" if you're going to refer to a coronavirus as a "flu". Influenza and coronaviruses spread, manifest, and are treated very differently. 

Is there a point you were trying to make that required us to only use confirmed cases and not the more accurate estimated total? Either way, the data would show that this is a far bigger health crisis than the 2009 H1N1 pandemic was. 

Most of what you wrote is accurate.  However, the flu and Covid-19 are spread primarily via respiratory droplets; coughing and sneezing around others (usually within 6 feet.)  There is still some question about aerosolization with Covid-19.  How they manifest are similar, usually upper respiratory symptoms, but Covid-19 has a greater range from no symptoms to severe and in need of the ICU.  Treatment is supportive and aimed at treating your symptoms. With the flu we might prescribe something like Tamiflu, but it isn't as effective as the manufacturer leads people to believe and if you aren't in a high risk category you probably don't even need it.  There is no "game changer" despite what the president and his proxies spread. The mortality rate of Covid-19 seems to be about 10 times greater than the seasonal flu. No one has immunity and there isn't a vaccine.  I don't think a single country has herd immunity, because usually 80-95% of the population would need to have recovered to protect the remaining 5-20% from getting sick.  So I'd really like to see list of countries which have allegedly achieved herd immunity.  Some might try to cast doubt on the numbers because we haven't tested every person who was sick, but we don't test every person for the flu every year, either.  Same is true for other infections like strep throat or gonorrhea.  The incidence numbers aren't exact, but they are as accurate as the epidemiologist can determine.  However, the numbers with a new viral infection need to be interpreted with care and more testing leads to more data which leads to better informed decision making when deciding upon a coarse of action and when. And just because someone isn't elderly or chronically ill doesn't mean they can't die from Covid-19.  They are less likely to die, but there is still a chance they might.  If you have worked in medicine long enough, then you have been around long enough to see those small percentages of things which are unlikely to happen actually happen.  We have to balance people losing their life with other concerns such as people losing their job, home, or business.  There is no easy or correct answer for everyone.

[BFritz21]

I don't know how much of this has been said:

I think, depending on how much more accurate testing becomes, they could do something like quarantine players and workers throughout the week and then make sure everyone is virus-free for the games and play in empty stadiums.

I also saw where they're thinking about playing all the games in warmer weather locations since the sun and heat are thought to kill the virus.

I don't know, though, because, even with that idea, would you quarantine them all summer and for training camp, too?

I'm surprised that this much of life has been shut-down, but I doubt that a billion dollar industry is just going to fold without fighting.

I'm sure that the league would also pitch to the decision makers how much the public needs the NFL for mental health just as an escape from reality.

[BmorePat87]

(04-28-2020, 07:39 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Most of what you wrote is accurate.  However, the flu and Covid-19 are spread primarily via respiratory droplets; coughing and sneezing around others (usually within 6 feet.)  There is still some question about aerosolization with Covid-19.  How they manifest are similar, usually upper respiratory symptoms, but Covid-19 has a greater range from no symptoms to severe and in need of the ICU.  Treatment is supportive and aimed at treating your symptoms. With the flu we might prescribe something like Tamiflu, but it isn't as effective as the manufacturer leads people to believe and if you aren't in a high risk category you probably don't even need it.  There is no "game changer" despite what the president and his proxies spread. The mortality rate of Covid-19 seems to be about 10 times greater than the seasonal flu. No one has immunity and there isn't a vaccine.  I don't think a single country has herd immunity, because usually 80-95% of the population would need to have recovered to protect the remaining 5-20% from getting sick.  So I'd really like to see list of countries which have allegedly achieved herd immunity.  Some might try to cast doubt on the numbers because we haven't tested every person who was sick, but we don't test every person for the flu every year, either.  Same is true for other infections like strep throat or gonorrhea.  The incidence numbers aren't exact, but they are as accurate as the epidemiologist can determine.  However, the numbers with a new viral infection need to be interpreted with care and more testing leads to more data which leads to better informed decision making when deciding upon a coarse of action and when. And just because someone isn't elderly or chronically ill doesn't mean they can't die from Covid-19.  They are less likely to die, but there is still a chance they might.  If you have worked in medicine long enough, then you have been around long enough to see those small percentages of things which are unlikely to happen actually happen.  We have to balance people losing their life with other concerns such as people losing their job, home, or business.  There is no easy or correct answer for everyone.

Thanks for the reply. I should have used better wording because I was trying to refer to the time it takes for symptoms to manifest and the virus to spread as well as the higher R0, which has been stated as one of the reasons why the response is far different than how we respond to the flu.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-28-2020, 09:02 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Thanks for the reply. I should have used better wording because I was trying to refer to the time it takes for symptoms to manifest and the virus to spread as well as the higher R0, which has been stated as one of the reasons why the response is far different than how we respond to the flu.

They share a lot of similarities which I think leads some to downplay the most important differences and lump them together as one. Some like Trump have encouraged that while others such as Fauci have tried to give the public the best information we have as we have it while cautioning things change as we learn more.

This pandemic is a teaching moment for us to learn from for the next pandemic. Every novel virus has the potential to become a pandemic. At the beginning, we won’t know how deadly it is. So we need to snuff them out as quickly as possible. The next time it could be less or more severe. But, in the critical early stages we won’t know. This is literal a stitch in time saves nine situation. If we had taken it more seriously from the beginning then maybe it wouldn’t have progressed to this point.

[GMDino]

(04-28-2020, 03:22 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Funny, I asked how any based on testing and you jump to estimates> Why? Because the number actually tested fro swine flu was far less than has been tested for this flu? This will go down as the biggest economic colossal ______ in US history thanks to to the Chinese and WHO.

"I was wrong and everyone called me out so I'm going to be LOUDER and then change subject and be wrong about that too!  Only LOUDER!"

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-28-2020, 08:30 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I don't know how much of this has been said:

I think, depending on how much more accurate testing becomes, they could do something like quarantine players and workers throughout the week and then make sure everyone is virus-free for the games and play in empty stadiums.

I also saw where they're thinking about playing all the games in warmer weather locations since the sun and heat are thought to kill the virus.

I don't know, though, because, even with that idea, would you quarantine them all summer and for training camp, too?

I'm surprised that this much of life has been shut-down, but I doubt that a billion dollar industry is just going to fold without fighting.

I'm sure that the league would also pitch to the decision makers how much the public needs the NFL for mental health just as an escape from reality.

According to whom?

[hollodero]

(04-28-2020, 08:30 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I also saw where they're thinking about playing all the games in warmer weather locations since the sun and heat are thought to kill the virus.

Not to be negative about your post at all, just this part I'd question. There doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest the heat kills the virus. If that were so, some hotter countries like Singapore would not be affected right now.

[fredtoast]

Here is all they have to do. Make every player, coach, and Ref that wants to be on the field for an NFL game get injected with the virus right now. That way they can all get sick and get over it by the start of the season, and hopefully they would have all developed anti-bodies to keep them from getting it again (although I think there is still some question about getting it twice)

[BFritz21]

(04-29-2020, 11:32 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: According to whom?

Trump's medical experts:

Quote:But here’s a spot of good news: Research suggests heat and humidity could be potent against the novel coronavirus. 

Not inside the body – as President Trump has mused – but on surfaces exposed to higher temperatures and sunlight in particular.
Half the virus may be killed in as little as two minutes if it’s on a surface exposed to sunlight and high humidity at room temperature.
That's according to lab studies conducted the Department of Homeland Security and detailed at a White House coronavirus briefing last week. Under drier, shady conditions, the virus’s half-life is far greater — around 18 hours.

If sunlight kills it, then we'll all actually be better when we're outside in the sun, rather than sitting inside in closed, damp conditions where the virus can spread.

(04-29-2020, 01:56 PM)hollodero Wrote: Not to be negative about your post at all, just this part I'd question. There doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest the heat kills the virus. If that were so, some hotter countries like Singapore would not be affected right now.

Yes, there is evidence that the heat kills the virus.

I did have the same questions, though, about why then hotter countries still have it, but that's because (I'm guessing) it can still be in the body and spread through coughing and sneezing, and also that everyone was carrying on as normal for so long and just spreading it through touching indoors and everything.

(04-29-2020, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is all they have to do.  Make every player, coach, and Ref that wants to be on the field for an NFL game get injected with the virus right now.  That way they can all get sick and get over it by the start of the season, and hopefully they would have all developed anti-bodies to keep them from getting it again (although I think there is still some question about getting it twice)

I think it's just that people who had it once were never fully over it, so it's unclear if they can get it twice.

I thought about that, also, but then what if players die from it?  I have heard that it will eventually be uniform in all of us, so they might as well get it now, and, if treatment continues to improve, then it would make even more sense.  I just saw where some European countries are opening back up, although I haven't looked into the articles, so we could use that as a basis for our next move.

Another question is why don't we just inject healthy people with antibodies from recovered patients?

Granted that I'm no expert and maybe antibodies are just proof that people have recovered?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-29-2020, 04:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Trump's medical experts:

Yeah, that's what I thought. The study was presented by William N. Bryan, the acting undersecretary for science and technology at the Homeland Security Department.  They haven't published that study and it isn't peer reviewed which prevents anyone from reading it or trying to reproduce the results.  It was released in the same press conference Trump asked about injecting disinfectants into the body and shining very powerful light as possible cures. You might be interesting in knowing Bryan is under investigation for using his government position to steer funds to private business dealings in the Ukraine.  Basically, he has been accused of doing the same things Trump accused Hunter Biden of doing so naturally Trump made him a political appointee.  You would believe with his title he has some sort of science background, right? No, he has a degree in logistics and intelligence.  After he left the Army he was an energy lobbyist.

There are other studies that don't reach the same conclusion.  So there is no clear consensus on this topic.  It is still an area of controversy and still needs further studies to reach a conclusion. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-29-2020, 04:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Another question is why don't we just inject healthy people with antibodies from recovered patients?

I'm gonna answer this one for you.  We do inject immunoglobulins (antibodies) into people in some situations.

For example, if you are exposed to Hepatitis B and haven't received the vaccination you would get a shot of HBIG (hep B antibodies) and start the vaccination series for hepatitis.

Antibodies aren't antigens so they can't stimulate your body to produce your own antibodies.

They are working on developing something like this with the convalescent plasma treatments.  I'm not sure, but I don't think have had enough time or resources to produce a Covid-19 immunoglobulin shot, yet.  But, if they could we still need a vaccination to be able to produce our own antibodies.

Does that make sense?

[GMDino]

(04-29-2020, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is all they have to do.  Make every player, coach, and Ref that wants to be on the field for an NFL game get injected with the virus right now.  That way they can all get sick and get over it by the start of the season, and hopefully they would have all developed anti-bodies to keep them from getting it again (although I think there is still some question about getting it twice)

Yep.  No one knows and we might not know for some time.

Russian roulette.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-27-2020, 12:53 PM)Mer Wrote: Be careful stating real facts. Some folks enjoy being alarmists.  

BTW this is nothing compared to H1N1 and we didn't shut down. 

Of the almost 3 million US service members who were deployed to Vietnam from 1964-1975, roughly 58,000 were killed.

Of the approximately 1 million Americans sick with Covid-19 in less than three months, roughly 60,000 (and counting) have died.

Just to put that swine flu into perspective for you. Be careful with the facts. Since this have proven to be more deadly than the Vietnam War, is it okay if we treat it like a real thing?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

Another fact for those comparing Covid-19 to “just” the flu. If Covid-19 was just the seasonal this would be the worst seasonal flu as far as deaths in over 50 years. And the 4th worst since Spanish Flu in the past 123 years.

[jj22]

I fear the season will be canceled just as the Bengals seem to have tried. But I don't want to think about it now.

If college football is canceled, then that will change a lot concerning the 2021 draft I'd think. That's also an interesting twist.

I think we'll all get it sooner or later because we can't stay in for the year it will take to have a vaccine, it's the people over 60 I'm really concerned about.

[*jason*]

(05-01-2020, 02:06 PM)jj22 Wrote: I fear the season will be canceled just as the Bengals seem to have tried. But I don't want to think about it now.

If college football is canceled, then that will change a lot concerning the 2021 draft I'd think. That's also an interesting twist.

I think we'll all get it sooner or later because we can't stay in for the year it will take to have a vaccine, it's the people over 60 I'm really concerned about.

A 5 year old girl was just buried in Michigan the other day... All of that elderly, and people with underlying conditions talk was bullshit. This thing can kill any of us.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Could be a positive in the long run. Maybe with this we all can just let the practice of giant hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars taxpayer funded stadiums go by the wayside, shifting to 100% TV/live streamed viewership.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(05-02-2020, 09:58 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Could be a positive in the long run. Maybe with this we all can just let the practice of giant hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars taxpayer funded stadiums go by the wayside, shifting to 100% TV/live streamed viewership.

Billionaires should pay for their own stadiums without tax payer’s money.

[Belsnickel]

(05-02-2020, 12:47 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Billionaires should pay for their own stadiums without tax payer’s money.

I agree, but I also understand the logic behind it. Primarily, a sports stadium like that brings in a large amount of economic activity that generates tax revenue and boosts businesses in the surrounding area (hotels, restaurants, bars, etc). Because of this, state and local governments are often willing to incentivize and/or subsidize the construction of these stadiums with public funds based on the idea that the benefits will outweigh the costs.