The Fed plans to keep pumping cash

[GMDino]

Can someone smarter than me explain if the economy is really doing well or if the Fed is pumping in money to make it do well and if this is better or worse than when Obama was in office?

https://www.axios.com/federal-reserve-temprorary-liquidity-89c59d7e-7c47-4663-ae55-33b5b55b39f3.html

Quote:The New York Fed added $83.1 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets Thursday, and the U.S. central bank looks primed to keep pumping cash for at least the next few months.

Why it matters: The stock market's 30% gain in 2019 was in no small part backed by the Fed's decision to cut U.S. interest rates three times and inject more than $1 trillion of temporary financing into the repo market. It also added more than $400 billion to its balance sheet in the fourth quarter.


What we're hearing: Fed vice chair Richard Clarida told an audience assembled at the Council on Foreign Relations Thursday that the Fed was prepared to continue adding to its balance sheet and providing liquidity to the repo market "at least through April."

• Clarida told me after the event he was not concerned markets could be taking advantage of the so-called "Powell put" — the belief that the Fed and chair Jerome Powell are using the cash to stimulate the economy or that they will cut rates to juice the stock market if prices fall significantly.
• "We realize that sometimes we’ll be criticized for it, but it’s not a factor driving our decisions," he said. "We have a very clear mandate, and are focused on what we need to do."
  

What they're saying: Clarida's speech was "music to the ears of traders and investors who have profitably ridden a liquidity-driven rally that has allowed them to quickly overcome a set of shocks, including the latest one, the sudden escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict," Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, wrote in an opinion piece for Bloomberg.

What's next: While Clarida pointed to April because of Tax Day, analysts who watch the market closely expect the Fed to keep delivering cash for even longer.

• Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities, a primary dealer that does business directly with the Fed, told Axios she expects the central bank to add $100 billion–$200 billion more in reserves and continue its Treasury bill buying through July to about $500 billion.
• In a note to clients, she added that she expects the Fed's balance sheet to move above $4.4 trillion this year, near its all-time high.
  

Go deeper: The market will need the Fed again in 2020

[url=https://www.axios.com/federal-reserve-markets-economic-stimulant-powell-6f7f723c-95d5-4199-997b-6456dc86c421.html][/url]

[Mike M (the other one)]

Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing.
It's a double edged sword for sure.

To me, keep pumping the money when it's doing well is keeping it on track (unless they suspect a backlash).
On the other hand, we need to cut corners where ever we can as well, but not to the extent that it pushes us in the wrong direction.

Super tricky situation.

[fredtoast]

Trumps economy is a sham

Compare GDP growth and deficit spending over the 3 years of the Trump administration with the last three years of the Obama administration

..Budget deficit......GDP growth...Jobs added
(Obama)
2014.....$485B...…....2.5%...……..3.00 million
2015.....$438B...…….2.9%...……..2.71 million
2016.....$585B...…….1.6%...……..2.34 million
(Trump)
2017.....$665B...…….2.4%...……..2.18 million
2018.....$779B...…….2.9%...……..2.63 million
2019.....$1092B...…..2.1%...……..2.11 million

Trump has pumped up the economy with unfunded tax cuts and cuts in the prime rate by the FED.

Deficit spending is okay when the economy is slow and needs a boost, but when the economy is booming like it has been that is the time to reduc deficits.  Instead the 2019 deficit is almost DOUBLE the deficit in Obama's last year in office.

[GMDino]

(01-10-2020, 02:08 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing.
It's a double edged sword for sure.

To me, keep pumping the money when it's doing well is keeping it on track (unless they suspect a backlash).
On the other hand, we need to cut corners where ever we can as well, but not to the extent that it pushes us in the wrong direction.

Super tricky situation.

Yeah I'm just not familiar enough to know if this is makes the economy seem better than it really is or if this is normal operating procedure or what.

[NATI BENGALS]

I predict a Tea Party sighting in about 12 months

[BmorePat87]

Not really my level of expertise, but essentially the Fed responded to a hike in short term lending rates by increasing the money supply, a move that typically leads to a decrease in interest rates. It’s cheaper to borrow when there’s more to lend.

We have target levels for interest rates that we want to stay at to ensure that inflation is manageable during economic expansions. The Fed’s role right now is to ensure that the economy remains healthy and interest rates don’t fluctuate too much. This move seeks to help stabilize things.

The Fed is saying that they expect this to be necessarily up to April when banks will be cashing a lot of tax checks. From there, the Fed will likely focus on buying back bonds as a means of increasing the money supply.

One concern with the temporary cash influxes is the cash tends to turn into investments, decreasing liquidity and making it hard to pay back without dipping too much into reserves.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-11-2020, 01:24 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Not really my level of expertise, but essentially the Fed responded to a hike in short term lending rates by increasing the money supply, a move that typically leads to a decrease in interest rates. It’s cheaper to borrow when there’s more to lend.

We have target levels for interest rates that we want to stay at to ensure that inflation is manageable during economic expansions. The Fed’s role right now is to ensure that the economy remains healthy and interest rates don’t fluctuate too much. This move seeks to help stabilize things.

The Fed is saying that they expect this to be necessarily up to April when banks will be cashing a lot of tax checks. From there, the Fed will likely focus on buying back bonds as a means of increasing the money supply.

One concern with the temporary cash influxes is the cash tends to turn into investments, decreasing liquidity and making it hard to pay back without dipping too much into reserves.

[Goalpost]

(01-10-2020, 02:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Trump has pumped up the economy with unfunded tax cuts and cuts in the prime rate by the FED.

I don't know where you are getting your info from concerning the prime rate and Trump. When Trump entered office the prime rate was 3.75. The Fed did 7 rate hikes up to 5.50 until recently doing 3 rate drops to where it stands at 4.75.  Trump has endured a great majority of his term with rate increases.

[BmorePat87]

(01-13-2020, 03:37 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

lol 10 years of teaching a unit on the Fed and monetary policy. I've never taught econ, so not really my expertise beyond the basics on monetary policy.

[6andcounting]

The Fed has been pumping money in, but inflation is still right around 2%. No need to slow the growth. The fear is that an inverted yield curve (short-term interests rates are higher than long-term rates) often (but no always) predates a recession by 12-24 months. We had our first inverted yield curve since the great recession in March of 2019.

[JustWinBaby]

(01-10-2020, 12:49 PM)GMDino Wrote: Can someone smarter than me explain if the economy is really doing well...
[url=https://www.axios.com/federal-reserve-markets-economic-stimulant-powell-6f7f723c-95d5-4199-997b-6456dc86c421.html][/url]

It's not healthy, no.

The low interest rate environment is good, temporarily, but long-term it's nothing.   Long-term you're punishing savers at the expense of investors - people on fixed incomes get screwed while people buying a house save a few bucks.  Net-net it's probably a negligible impact.

Long story short, Dems and Repubs look at Japan and think high Debt/GDP hasn't ruined the country, ignoring that their economy has not been good for nearly 3 decades.