The Georgia runoffs

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

A lot has been made of Georgia "turning blue" for this election and the subsequent runoff election for both Senate seats, understandably so. I am of a different opinion than most in that I think the runoffs wholly benefit the GOP. The enthusiasm to remove Trump was almost certainly the main reason you saw a blue GA and I don't think the Dem turnout, or the independent turnout, will be nearly the same for the runoff elections. The runoffs are far more important for the GOP than the Dems and, with the removal of Trump, I think you're going to see a lot of moderates vote GOP in order to preserve a balance of power, especially given the Dems largely passive take on the riots and looting in this country. At the very least those types of people will likely just choose to stay home.

[*michaelsean*]

Yeah the left seems to get uber hyped for presidential elections but not so much for other elections. So excited they can’t wait to vote and vote the minute they can.

And why would it be thought that Democrats would do better in Jan than they did in Nov?

[GMDino]

(11-09-2020, 11:17 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Yeah the left seems to get uber hyped for presidential elections but not so much for other elections. So excited they can’t wait to vote and vote the minute they can.

And why would it be thought that Democrats would do better in Jan than they did in Nov?

I agree.  It affected the last runoff in GA too.

Will it be different with the increased effort to get voters out that has been going on?  Time will tell.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-09-2020, 11:59 PM)GMDino Wrote: I agree.  It affected the last runoff in GA too.

Will it be different with the increased effort to get voters out that has been going on?  Time will tell.

I could see that if the Dems won. The one lost by I think 2%. Don’t know where their extra votes are coming from. Hard to imagine they can come up with not only what they did in Nov, but add 2%.

The second ones the Republicans together crushed the Dem, but as I understand the woman who has the seat has some issues so maybe that could be a little harder to judge.

[CKwi88]

(11-09-2020, 11:59 PM)GMDino Wrote: I agree.  It affected the last runoff in GA too.

Will it be different with the increased effort to get voters out that has been going on?  Time will tell.

It's really tough to draw conclusions from this election given the pandemic. Dems were certainly more responsible with their campaign from the health perspective, and you have to wonder if that changes given what's at play with the Georgia run-offs.

We'll see if Abrams can help pull another rabbit out of the hat, but I wouldn't hold my breath. It's not a presidential election. There will be fewer votes, and the moderates that broke for Biden will probably go back to voting R. 

[Belsnickel]

It all comes down to which side will whip up the most enthusiasm for the race. We know that over the next 60 days or so there will be massive amounts of money dumped by the parties into Georgia. I could see it going either way, honestly, especially with the Republican candidates trying to split their own party by attacking the Republican Secretary of State.

[Goalpost]

Sounds like Manchin of West Virginia might make the vote in Georgia less important. He's not expected to conform to party line voting on some of the more progressive issues,

[*PhilHos*]

(11-10-2020, 12:30 AM)CKwi88 Wrote:  It's not a presidential election. There will be fewer votes, and the moderates that broke for Biden will probably go back to voting R. 

My thoughts exactly.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-10-2020, 10:22 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Sounds like Manchin of West Virginia might make the vote in Georgia less important.  He's not expected to conform to party line voting on some of the more progressive issues,

I saw that as well.  Either he's having an attack of principles or he knows he's dust in the next election if he goes along with the radical agenda proposed by some.  I'd still be much more comfortable with a GOP majority.

[GMDino]

(11-10-2020, 10:22 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Sounds like Manchin of West Virginia might make the vote in Georgia less important.  He's not expected to conform to party line voting on some of the more progressive issues,

He almost always is that way.  It's WV.  If you don't swear allegiance to the dying coal business they assume your just a hippy, pinko commie who hates America.

On another note there was little to no chance of a big push for massive progressive changes anyway.  These things usually happen in small increments.   I'll settle for someone just caring about looking forward and not backward because they fear windmills cause cancer.

[CJD]

I could see both ends of it.

So, one the one hand, getting rid of Trump definitely drove turn out for the general election, which obviously drew in people who wouldn't normally vote and they tended to vote Democratic because obviously they are voting because they want Trump out.

On the other, I think it's being underestimated that Trump had that same effect on his own voters. It's easy to forget that, while Biden did break the record for most votes ever recorded in American history, Donald Trump came in second. And this voting block hasn't consisted of your typical older Republican voters who are reliably voting every 2 years. You don't break records with those people. These were new voters. Potentially younger voters who are either voting for the first time or voting in larger numbers than they ever have.

With Trump now out, I could see both groups losing motivation.

The one thing I will say about the Democrats is that they have Stacey Abrams who really drove the African American vote to new heights in Georgia and she is spending time and resources getting more and more people registered to vote for these run offs. And now that they know that if they win these two elections they can actually have a majority in the Senate, I could see that motivating a lot of them, whereas the Trump only voters may not be as motivated to win back the Senate given their king is now gone.

Ultimately, I think the GOP will likely come out on top for a few reasons: incumbency and the fact that it's the South. It's hard to turn a state from Red for both Senators and the President to blue for all three in 4 years. That's a huge ask. I have a feeling that we're looking at a 48 to 52 Senate in favor of the GOP come January.

But I would not be surprised if the Democrats get energized by Biden's win and see this as an opportunity to give the Democrats the means to enact their agenda. I imagine the idea of dethroning McConnell is making their mouths water as well.

[fredtoast]

I think the Republicans will win the runoffs.

Only thing I see saving the Dems is if Trump continues to refuse to accept that he lost and other Republicans continue to support him.  If the Republican party seems to continue backing his behavior it will motivate the Dems in Georgia to turn out to vote to keep the crazies out of power.

BTW I never expected Trump to accept a loss.  The question I have always had is how much of the GOP will admit he is wrong.


**EDIT** I don't think there is anything wrong with a candidate asking for a recount or challenging results.  But I am assuming by the time these run-off elections are held the courts will have ruled against Trump.

[BigPapaKain]

I don't know. On the one hand, purging the voter rolls is a sure fire way to galvanize people against you and your party.

On the other hand, Georgia.

As others have said, it'll come down to whether or not the Democrats can stay focused enough to vote in an election besides the presidential one.

[NATI BENGALS]

Well loeffler got less votes than her opponent. Ossoff was really close. Current attempt by the administration to steal an election like the crooked election for governor they had recently could push more people to the dems.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-10-2020, 05:25 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Well loeffler got less votes than her opponent. Ossoff was really close. Current attempt by the administration to steal an election like the crooked election for governor they had recently could push more people to the dems.

She got less votes because there were two Republicans on the ballot.

Ossoff was like two percentage behind.  Where are those votes coming from?

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-10-2020, 05:25 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Well loeffler got less votes than her opponent. Ossoff was really close. Current attempt by the administration to steal an election like the crooked election for governor they had recently could push more people to the dems.

Wait, so the 2018 elections in GA were "crooked" but this current election it was the epitome of fairness?  Seriously?

[GMDino]

(11-10-2020, 05:35 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Wait, so the 2018 elections in GA were "crooked" but this current election it was the epitome of fairness?  Seriously?

Different acts sir.  You'd be aware but the liberal media in CA probably blocked it. 

All seriousness aside there were accusations of some interference by the guy running for office.  You should read up on it. 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-10-2020, 05:39 PM)GMDino Wrote: Different acts sir.  You'd be aware but the liberal media in CA probably blocked it. 

All seriousness aside there were accusations of some interference by the guy running for office.  You should read up on it. 

I'm aware.  The same party is in charge this time around as well.  Doesn't it just slightly smell of exactly what the GOP is being accused of?  It sounds an awful lot like it's not rigged when we win.

[NATI BENGALS]

(11-10-2020, 05:42 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'm aware.  The same party is in charge this time around as well.  Doesn't it just slightly smell of exactly what the GOP is being accused of?  It sounds an awful lot like it's not rigged when we win.

I forget. Who was the person in charge of the election during their last vote for governor?

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-10-2020, 06:03 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I forget. Who was the person in charge of the election during their last vote for governor?

That's precisely my point.