To coup or not to coup

[xxlt]

Simple question. Vote in the poll. Explain your vote if you like. Critique the article if you like.

It has been posited by one historian that it is "inevitable" that Trump will attempt a coup to "overthrow democracy."

That opinion was the inspiration for the poll question. http://www.salon.com/2017/05/01/historian-timothy-snyder-its-pretty-much-inevitable-that-trump-will-try-to-stage-a-coup-and-overthrow-democracy/

In a national poll, what do you think the results would be?

[CKwi88]

Goodness,

This is the yin to Lucie's yang.

When worded this way, I think it's 100% no. Any sort of subversion of our democratic system will come in a more subtle manner than an outright coup, at least in the way I understand the word.

I doubt a single Trump supporter would say "I'd support Trump in a coup." However, they may support some of his more authoritarian moves (see requesting personal info of voters) without knowing/caring how it undermines our democracy. It would be much more akin to the "boiling frog" parable than anything else.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

[xxlt]

(07-15-2017, 12:00 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Goodness,

This is the yin to Lucie's yang.

When worded this way, I think it's 100% no. Any sort of subversion of our democratic system will come in a more subtle manner than an outright coup, at least in the way I understand the word.

I doubt a single Trump supporter would say "I'd support Trump in a coup." However, they may support some of his more authoritarian moves (see requesting personal info of voters) without knowing/caring how it undermines our democracy. It would be much more akin to the "boiling frog" parable than anything else.

I think this is an interesting perspective. But, I suspect in spite of the wording some locally (MB) and nationally will/would say yes. CK pointed out that some may be supporting moves that are walking down the path and/or knocking on the coup door without realizing and I think that is a very accurate statement.

CK (others), to use your metaphor, do you think the frog is still at the frog farm, on the way to market, in the display case, in the shopping cart, in the icebox, on the counter, or in the pot (low, medium, high heat)?

[xxlt]

I'll take this opportunity to point out for those reading the thread but not the linked article that the professor saying a Trump coup attempt is inevitable teaches at the school where all the Bushes matriculated and subsequently graduated: Yale.

[Dill]

(07-15-2017, 12:00 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Goodness,

This is the yin to Lucie's yang.

When worded this way, I think it's 100% no. Any sort of subversion of our democratic system will come in a more subtle manner than an outright coup, at least in the way I understand the word.

I doubt a single Trump supporter would say "I'd support Trump in a coup." However, they may support some of his more authoritarian moves (see requesting personal info of voters) without knowing/caring how it undermines our democracy. It would be much more akin to the "boiling frog" parable than anything else.

I'm not sure it would be a 100% no among Trump supporters. Many would not go along, of course, but many also just see government as already broken. A coup might seem to some as taking the gov. back from Hollywood globalists.

By the way, the interview with Snyder is far from crackpottery.  He reads political history very well in my view, and warns against supposing that Americans are somehow immune to failure of democratic governance.

If I understand him, he is not projecting a South American style coup, with the US Army surrounding the capitol building, but rather the positing of a state of emergency, followed by an attempt to gain enhanced executive control. (Remember how Lincoln imposed martial law during the Civil War?)  If that worked, Trump would continue to consolidate power incrementally.

But Snyder doesn't say it would work, only that his increasing frustration/inability to govern normally would tend him in this direction. But unlike Germany in the 1930s, the US has more checks and balances. That frog won't boil.

So Snyder's argument is not simply the obverse of the right wing fear that Obama would send in the UN helicopters to take our guns away rather than relinquish power on Jan 20.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

I always get a kick out of stuff like this.

Remember all the people who said that Obama would find some way to get a third term or find a way to become a permanent president? 

Stuff cracks me up.

[Dill]

(07-18-2017, 08:54 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: I always get a kick out of stuff like this.

Remember all the people who said that Obama would find some way to get a third term or find a way to become a permanent president? 

Stuff cracks me up.

I do remember that; but Snyder is rather more nuanced than that.  He thinks Trump would create a "state of exception" to increase executive power.  But he doesn't think it would work.

Snyder: Let me make just two points. The first is that I think it’s pretty much inevitable that they will try. The reason I think that is that the conventional ways of being popular are not working out for them. The conventional way to be popular or to be legitimate in this country is to have some policies, to grow your popularity ratings and to win some elections. I don’t think 2018 is looking very good for the Republicans along those conventional lines — not just because the president is historically unpopular. It’s also because neither the White House nor Congress have any policies which the majority of the public like.

This means they could be seduced by the notion of getting into a new rhythm of politics, one that does not depend upon popular policies and electoral cycles.

Whether it works or not depends upon whether when something terrible happens to this country, we are aware that the main significance of it is whether or not we are going to be more or less free citizens in the future.

My gut feeling is that Trump and his administration will try and that it won’t work. Not so much because we are so great but because we have a little bit of time to prepare. I also think that there are enough people and enough agencies of the government who have also thought about this and would not necessarily go along.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-18-2017, 08:45 PM)Dill Wrote: I'm not sure it would be a 100% no among Trump supporters. Many would not go along, of course, but many also just see government as already broken. A coup might seem to some as taking the gov. back from Hollywood globalists.

By the way, the interview with Snyder is far from crackpottery.  He reads political history very well in my view, and warns against supposing that Americans are somehow immune to failure of democratic governance.

If I understand him, he is not projecting a South American style coup, with the US Army surrounding the capitol building, but rather the positing of a state of emergency, followed by an attempt to gain enhanced executive control. (Remember how Lincoln imposed martial law during the Civil War?)  If that worked, Trump would continue to consolidate power incrementally.

But Snyder doesn't say it would work, only that his increasing frustration/inability to govern normally would tend him in this direction. But unlike Germany in the 1930s, the US has more checks and balances. That frog won't boil.

So Snyder's argument is not simply the obverse of the right wing fear that Obama would send in the UN helicopters to take our guns away rather than relinquish power on Jan 20.

You have spent this entire year talking about how stupid/idiotic/dumb/unqualified/overwhelmed Trump is as President.. and now suddenly you're buying into the theory that Trump is capable of not only thinking up, but executing a bloodless coup of the American government?

[Dill]

(07-18-2017, 09:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You have spent this entire year talking about how stupid/idiotic/dumb/unqualified/overwhelmed Trump is as President.. and now suddenly you're buying into the theory that Trump is capable of not only thinking up, but executing a bloodless coup of the American government?

Not exactly, Leonard.

My last post makes clear that Snyder is not speaking of a "coup" and that a declaration of emergency for some increased power would not work in the US.

My previous post makes clear that what would motivate such actions on the part of Trump and some supporters would be incompetence, the inability to manage government through the usual levers and channels. Snyder says something like that in the excerpt I just quoted for Neb.

So no, I am neither buying into nor promoting a theory that Trump is capable of executing a  bloodless coup of the US gov.

PS I don't think I have called Trump "stupid" or "idiotic." "Incompetent" and "overwhelmed," certainly.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Remember after 9/11 all those people said that Bush orchestrated it and planned the whole thing then in the same breath said that Bush was an idiot, stupid, ignorant, incompetent and so on?

Then all those people saying Obama was going to become king of America.

Now it's Trump going to take over.

Oh but this time, it's from a Yale professor, lol.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-18-2017, 10:13 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: Remember after 9/11 all those people said that Bush orchestrated it and planned the whole thing then in the same breath said that Bush was an idiot, stupid, ignorant, incompetent and so on?

Then all those people saying Obama was going to become king of America.

Now it's Trump going to take over.

Oh but this time, it's from a Yale professor, lol.

Shit, we're doomed then. Doomed, I tell you!

[Dill]

(07-18-2017, 10:13 PM)Nebuchadnezzar Wrote: Remember after 9/11 all those people said that Bush orchestrated it and planned the whole thing then in the same breath said that Bush was an idiot, stupid, ignorant, incompetent and so on?

Then all those people saying Obama was going to become king of America.

Now it's Trump going to take over.

Oh but this time, it's from a Yale professor, lol.

Did you read the article?

[xxlt]

(07-19-2017, 12:16 AM)Dill Wrote: Did you read the article?

I've begun including that as a question in most of the threads I start. It is astonishing how many people have an opinion about an argument they have never examined, a place they have never visited, a dish they have never tasted...

[*michaelsean*]

(07-19-2017, 12:16 AM)Dill Wrote: Did you read the article?

I did.    "Get my book.  It tells you what to do."

[Au165]

(07-19-2017, 09:06 AM)xxlt Wrote: I've begun including that as a question in most of the threads I start. It is astonishing how many people have an opinion about an argument they have never examined, a place they have never visited, a dish they have never tasted...

Well the other side of that coin is there are some things in life you don't need to experience to have an opinion on them. Not really relevant to this thread and reading an article, but not sure I like going down the road of must have touched, scene, smelled to have an opinion on it.

[*michaelsean*]

I know people said this stuff about Obama and we laughed, but it's different now because...well...Obama wouldn't do it, but Trump would because of all the stuff we say he will do in the future.

[xxlt]

(07-19-2017, 09:10 AM)Au165 Wrote: Well the other side of that coin is there are some things in life you don't need to experience to have an opinion on them. Not really relevant to this thread and reading an article, but not sure I like going down the road of must have touched, scene, smelled to have an opinion on it.

Fair point. I agree, I don't need to taste a Spam, cat shit, and sardine sandwich to know I won't like it.

However, I also am humble enough to admit that I'm not going to dismiss the arguments of a Harvard or Yale professor without examining them just because I disagree (or agree) with them. There is the old line from Sagan about the problem with America being that it promotes the belief that one person's ignorance is just as good as another person's intelligence. I try not to exemplify that.

So, if a subject matter expert (SME) who clearly is more learned than I am says something, I try to listen and consider their expertise and argument before making a judgment on whether it makes sense or not. And, by the way, I never said I thought the SME from Yale who claims it is inevitable Trump will try a coup was correct. But, I did read his remarks on the matter and found them thought provoking.

Someone once said it is easier to judge than to think, which is why so many judge, or something like that. Again, I found the article thought provoking. I also found the question of if a coup transpired whether Americans would support it to be an interesting one, hence the poll question.