The data shows Trump isn't bringing waves of new voters into the GOP

[BmorePat87]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897

Politico crunched the numbers given to them by the GOP and other analysis groups regarding the primaries and the data overwhelmingly shows that the huge increase in GOP primary voters is from GOP general election voters who previously just never voted in primaries.

Is this good news for the GOP in general? Absolutely. More competitive primaries are a good thing going forward.

Does it help Trump's claim that he is expanding the party? No, he's simply getting to voters who have always voted GOP in the general.

The number of brand new voters in many states and the number of party switchers are very similar to 2008 and 2012 numbers.

[Belsnickel]

That's actually very interesting. It shows that he is really speaking to the GOP base in a way that is motivating people that were not quite apathetic to the process, but not completely active, to actually get more involved by voting in the primary. I'm not sure what this will mean for the party.

[GMDino]

(05-17-2016, 11:07 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897

Politico crunched the numbers given to them by the GOP and other analysis groups regarding the primaries and the data overwhelmingly shows that the huge increase in GOP primary voters is from GOP general election voters who previously just never voted in primaries.

Is this good news for the GOP in general? Absolutely. More competitive primaries are a good thing going forward.

Does it help Trump's claim that he is expanding the party? No, he's simply getting to voters who have always voted GOP in the general.

The number of brand new voters in many states and the number of party switchers are very similar to 2008 and 2012 numbers.

My daughter turned 18 this year and could not wait to register to vote!

Then she skipped the primary because she was busy.

[mallorian69]

I am more interested to see the numbers from the DNC. Everyone knows that 2008 and 2012 saw the largest turn out of black voters in history. What are they doing this time around since there are no black candidates?

[6andcounting]

(05-17-2016, 12:04 PM)mallorian69 Wrote: I am more interested to see the numbers from the DNC. Everyone knows that 2008 and 2012 saw the largest turn out of black voters in history. What are they doing this time around since there are no black candidates?

Hillary speaks with a black southern accent sometimes and relates to black people using hot sauce.

[*michaelsean*]

Well he may be bringing in some Republicans who haven't voted recently, but I'm going to bet he's losing more that have voted recently.

[BmorePat87]

(05-17-2016, 11:19 AM)Belsnickel Wrote:  I'm not sure what this will mean for the party.

What it will mean is that candidates who can mimic his populism and extreme patriotism will start emerging as legitimate candidates in congressional elections. They will do well in Red states and red districts, but they'll be no more competitive in battleground states/districts and in national presidential elections than moderate republicans. 

The whole "candidates lose because they're not conservative enough" argument is gone. 

[Benton]

(05-17-2016, 11:07 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897

Politico crunched the numbers given to them by the GOP and other analysis groups regarding the primaries and the data overwhelmingly shows that the huge increase in GOP primary voters is from GOP general election voters who previously just never voted in primaries.

Is this good news for the GOP in general? Absolutely. More competitive primaries are a good thing going forward.

Does it help Trump's claim that he is expanding the party? No, he's simply getting to voters who have always voted GOP in the general.

The number of brand new voters in many states and the number of party switchers are very similar to 2008 and 2012 numbers.

But there's also the point that a lot of voters on each side haven't voted in a while because they don't think their party reflects them.

So while Trump may not be attracting new voters, he is attracting Republicans... who, largely, are people that haven't voted much because the GOP is mostly a Christian Conservative group. Same was as Sanders isn't attracting Democrats, he's attracting liberals.

[BmorePat87]

(05-17-2016, 05:07 PM)Benton Wrote: But there's also the point that a lot of voters on each side haven't voted in a while because they don't think their party reflects them.

So while Trump may not be attracting new voters, he is attracting Republicans... who, largely, are people that haven't voted much because the GOP is mostly a Christian Conservative group. Same was as Sanders isn't attracting Democrats, he's attracting liberals.

These are people who haven't voted in the primary, but as much as 95% have voted Republican once in the last 4 elections and 80% 3 times in the last 4 elections. They're reliable GOP general election voters, not new Republicans.

[Benton]

(05-17-2016, 05:17 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: These are people who haven't voted in the primary, but as much as 95% have voted Republican once in the last 4 elections and 80% 3 times in the last 4 elections. They're reliable GOP general election voters, not new Republicans.

That is a little more interesting.

[Goalpost]

Trump leads among independent voters. At one time that was worth something. Remains to be seen I guess. This year I'm not so certain it does though.

[mallorian69]

(05-17-2016, 05:54 PM)Goalpost Wrote: Trump leads among independent voters.  At one time that was worth something.  Remains to be seen I guess.  This year I'm not so certain it does though.

Why wouldn't it? Roughly 1/3 of the country self identifies as republican, 1/3 as democrat, and 1/3 as independent. No candidate can win without getting the majority of the independent vote.