Trump Announces Presidential Bid for 2024

[Arturo Bandini]

His program is still 'Own the libs and tax break for billionaires ? '

[Dill]

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: I'm not sure I completely agree with the bolded.  I definitely agree with the statement when it comes to the GOP base.  Actual legislators and donors may be a different story.  The narratives on conservative talk outlets certainly play a role, but the voices on those platforms are just the most available ones for consumption.  They aren't necessarily the ones that matter.

I'd say they play a decisive role. Hannity et al. were central in turning each of Trump's illegal actions as president into a "hoax"--the mirror image of what libs were accusing. E.g. by summer of 2020 it was the Dems and Fauci who weren't "following the science."  And now the 1/6 hearings, which cannot be directly refuted, can be disregarded as "partisan." 

At this conjuncture, they play a central mediating role between the base and the party leadership--the base being the most important variable of Trump power. 

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Trump was the battering ram for many of the recent policy wins for the right, but they were largely executed by more sober and calculating players-of-the-game like McConnell and judge Thomas.  Mitch is IMO the main architect of the modern conservative movement, and he's arguably the most effective legislator in modern US history.  Trump was the face and voice of the party, but does anyone think this shift would have occurred without Mitch's persistence and gamesmanship?  

My point is, McConnell and the adults in the party like a good lib-owning as much as anyone, but they like power better.  They don't care for rhetorical power quite as much as actual legislative power.  If Trump gets in the way of the acquisition of that power, he will be dealt with IMO.  If he is viewed as potentially diminishing that power, he will be dealt with.  

I don't know if Mitch is really better than Tip O'neill or Nancy, but he is the most effective politician in the GOP at the moment. Low character, high skill. 

I'm not sure which shift you are referring to. Certainly McConnell engineered the SCOTUS imbalance we have. Trump has no skill at all in governing, knowing neither law nor Constitution. Still, the major "shift" in the GOP I see is almost wholly up to Trump, who displaced all the competent pols in the 2016 primary and turned the GOP away from traditional conservatism, turning the GOP into a regime party along the way.

So I disagree with the last bolded. Trump was "in the way" the moment he stepped on the debate stage. McConnell and McCarthy tried to get rid of him after 1/6, but got back on board quickly when they realized Trump still had the base. 

What will matter for the GOP over the next year is whether Trump can keep the base together. That, not Mitch, will determine who gets "dealt with."  The intense dislike all those Senators and Congressmen have for Trump (I'm sure the majority of they GOP in congress) will have to remain squelched if the base stays with Trump, because that is the only way they can keep their own power.

(11-19-2022, 11:17 AM)samhain Wrote: Anyone vs the liberals works in primaries, but national it's not quite as effective.  The party will have to win votes that aren't motivated by conspiracies or partisan grandstanding.  That's how Biden beats Trump.  That's how a red wave never materializes.  Even in a bad economy with a largely negative outlook among voters, they still didn't give power back to the authoritarian firebrands.  A lot of people are tired of hearing that shit, much as they are tired of the "woke" politics on the left.  

Dems have trouble reigning in the more extreme views in their party in national elections, and it's quite a balancing act.  It benefitted the right for a long time.  Now the right will have an internal conflict that mirrors the one on the left.  That, again is how Biden becomes the nominee and president.  He's old, vanilla, and not nearly as easy to peg as an extremist.  The right will need to find a way to keep it's extremists from gaining momentum and co-opting the party as Trump did.  If they don't, they will continue to underperform in national elections.

To the last bolded, I quite agree. But it's not up the leadership, really. If Trump does fizzle out in the coming months, it will be in part because the non-Maga GOP has increased to the point that the GOP vote is unstable and difficult to read. A lot of people are tired of the authoritarianism, as you say, but it's still unclear how many.  

MAGA voters are more dependent upon prompts from trusted authorities than are other voters, and those authorities are not really their Congressional leaders.  If their understanding of the current political conjuncture were correct, there'd have been a red wave. But there wasn't. 
At moments like that they are dangerously close to recognizing that Biden evil and incompetence are largely hype and Trump's competence and mastery of the national stage is an illusion outside the bubble, where the majority of voters still are. Right now they are calling in to Hannity and Kilmeade turning over interpretations and new frames for understanding Trump/GOP vulnerability at the moment. 


PS Dem extreme views are like "all renewable energy by 2030." Repub extreme views are like "Hang Biden, Pence and Pelosi, same day as the trial."  Different kinds of extreme altogether.

[Dill]

(11-19-2022, 12:48 PM)hollodero Wrote: I stopped informing myself about FOX programming, but it makes sense they take a somewhat hesitant wait and see approach here. I wouldn't know what to predict. I deem it possible that something similar to the destruction of my own country's right-wing populists is happening. That more and more people finally get tired of all of it. And especially get tired of defending Trump on things almost everyone at least deep down knows are pretty much indefensible. Things after things that would be declared the scandal of the century if any democrat president had said them, if Biden had claimed he grabbed women and because he's famous they let him do it, if Hillary fell in love with a monster and 10.000 things like that. It gets exhausting to doublethink around that on a weekly basis.

Just a note here: One of my relatives REALLY BELIEVES Hillary killed Vince Foster. And if she did that, why is it so hard to believe she had Seth Rich killed too? 

It's only from the (reality-based) lib perspective that one sees Trump getting away with unprecedented acts of evil and incompetence. Unfortunately, from that perspective it may be hard to imagine/recognize the depth of veneration still accorded Trump by millions.

From the Fox bubble, lib pols have been getting away with FAR WORSE for years. "EVER HEAR OF BENGHAZI?!? URANIUM ONE?!? WEAPONIZING THE IRS?!?" Most of your lib-facts about Trump come from the NYT and WaPo, right? Nuff said then.  

That's why MAGAs were and still are tired of Dem "hypocrisy."  It's not over till GOD says it is.

[guyofthetiger]

Trump can run if he wants. I don't think he'll get the nomination though. People will want a new president.

[Dill]

(11-20-2022, 04:23 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Trump can run if he wants. I don't think he'll get the nomination though. People will want a new president.

Two years is a long time. I think we might find that DeSantis doesn't run or, if he does, turns out to be less
popular than Trump outside Florida.

I'll be happy if he can suppress 15-20% of the vote of anyone OTHER than him.
 

[hollodero]

(11-20-2022, 02:28 AM)Dill Wrote: Just a note here: One of my relatives REALLY BELIEVES Hillary killed Vince Foster. And if she did that, why is it so hard to believe she had Seth Rich killed too? 

Sure, but that's different. Attack is easy. But attack might also be a conscious or subconscious reaction to the permanent defense mode Trump put his followers in. This week he drew hurricane paths with a sharpie and goes public with it, next he claimed China respects Trump and his very big ah-brain, next he called his former handpicked employees dogs or dumb as a rock, no chronology in these examples, but it just goes on and on. The list of issues that every neutral observer (not just "libs", I for one am not one) must consider deeply embarrassing in the mildest of reactions, the list of things when if Biden said it today he would be declared pretty much braindead, is endless. I guess many people got and get how this is indefensible, just would never admit it, and even understandably so in your climate. And a mechanism to make it defensible is accusing the other side of even more horrific deeds to rationalize. And the worse Trump is, the worse libs have to be. A reaction even self-declared independends often take to stay in balance.

Not that I could ever rationalize believing in conspiracies like the one you mentioned. These are extremes, and these people are obviously cought in their ever-loyal fandom and are lost for any rational discourse. Wild stuff, never peddled in my country to any comparable extent. I'm sure these extremes have nothing to do with a strictly dualistic political system though.

[GMDino]

(11-20-2022, 11:19 AM)hollodero Wrote: Sure, but that's different. Attack is easy. But attack might also be a conscious or subconscious reaction to the permanent defense mode Trump put his followers in. This week he drew hurricane paths with a sharpie and goes public with it, next he claimed China respects Trump and his very big ah-brain, next he called his former handpicked employees dogs or dumb as a rock, no chronology in these examples, but it just goes on and on. The list of issues that every neutral observer (not just "libs", I for one am not one) must consider deeply embarrassing in the mildest of reactions, the list of things when if Biden said it today he would be declared pretty much braindead, is endless. I guess many people got and get how this is indefensible, just would never admit it, and even understandably so in your climate. And a mechanism to make it defensible is accusing the other side of even more horrific deeds to rationalize. And the worse Trump is, the worse libs have to be. A reaction even self-declared independends often take to stay in balance.

Not that I could ever rationalize believing in conspiracies like the one you mentioned. These are extremes, and these people are obviously cought in their ever-loyal fandom and are lost for any rational discourse. Wild stuff, never peddled in my country to any comparable extent. I'm sure these extremes have nothing to do with a strictly dualistic political system though.

In general I think people are overlooking the cult mentality of the Trump supporters.  

They are not conspiracies...they are truths to those supporters.  They literally believe he can do no wrong, DID nothing wrong, that he was cheated, and that only HE can "fix" our problems.

And I'm talking 20-25% of his base support.

I know these people.  Every thing ELSE is a conspiracy except what Trump tells them.  What he tells them are facts and the REAL truth.

It won't matter what he does, what is proven, what facts there are.  And once he starts knocking off the low hanging fruit in the primaries he'll easily garner enough support to win the nomination.

[KillerGoose]

(11-20-2022, 11:45 AM)GMDino Wrote: In general I think people are overlooking the cult mentality of the Trump supporters.  

They are not conspiracies...they are truths to those supporters.  They literally believe he can do no wrong, DID nothing wrong, that he was cheated, and that only HE can "fix" our problems.

And I'm talking 20-25% of his base support.

I know these people.  Every thing ELSE is a conspiracy except what Trump tells them.  What he tells them are facts and the REAL truth.

It won't matter what he does, what is proven, what facts there are.  And once he starts knocking off the low hanging fruit in the primaries he'll easily garner enough support to win the nomination.

I know a couple people like this, but it isn't that surprising given that I live in Oklahoma. It is a bit shocking to see, though. I remember talking to one of these individuals after Biden won and they admitted that they began crying and hyperventilating when Trump lost. They were absolutely terrified of what was going to happen and that the U.S.A. was going to fall into the hands of China. They started speaking about potentially moving to Canada to "escape the madness" and the irony there is they RAILED any liberals acting that way when Trump won in 2016. 

No shit.

Then, of course, they started seething with anger because they thought the election was stolen. They started saying things like "have you seen Biden's rallies? No one shows up. There is no way that Trump lost to him." and proclaiming that Trump was the greatest President the country has had. It's really ***** weird. I enjoy talking politics in person, but I had to start avoiding the topic around this person. Every political topic just ended with them becoming furious that I voted for Biden, regardless of what it was. Oil prices and gas prices? They suddenly knew more than me and everything I said was wrong despite my experience in the industry. It was Biden's fault, and my fault for voting for that "traitor". Leading up to the election, I told them that Biden was likely going to win. That was wrong, too. Why? Trump said so. That's about as deep as it goes. 

Disclaimer that I know there are Democrats who act this way as well but I don't know any personally because of where I live.

[NUGDUKWE]

(11-20-2022, 02:28 AM)Dill Wrote: Just a note here: One of my relatives REALLY BELIEVES Hillary killed Vince Foster. And if she did that, why is it so hard to believe she had Seth Rich killed too? 

It's only from the (reality-based) lib perspective that one sees Trump getting away with unprecedented acts of evil and incompetence. Unfortunately, from that perspective it may be hard to imagine/recognize the depth of veneration still accorded Trump by millions.

From the Fox bubble, lib pols have been getting away with FAR WORSE for years. "EVER HEAR OF BENGHAZI?!? URANIUM ONE?!? WEAPONIZING THE IRS?!?" Most of your lib-facts about Trump come from the NYT and WaPo, right? Nuff said then.  

That's why MAGAs were and still are tired of Dem "hypocrisy."  It's not over till GOD says it is.

I'm probably coming into the conversation late. But I made this point at work that people think the Clinton's killed people and had no problem covering it up but a blow job was beyond they're reach? Just not sure that makes sense. On another note the did have a 2 year investigation into Benghazi and it didn't turn up anything that I'm aware of. But that's why I'm fine if Congress wants to investigate things like Hunter bidens laptop. It's hard to sell misinformation in a congressional investigation so let the facts come out. Then it will hopefully take away the power of online false narratives.

[*Nately120*]

(11-20-2022, 04:23 AM)guyofthetiger Wrote: Trump can run if he wants. I don't think he'll get the nomination though. People will want a new president.

It'll be interesting to see how the GOP is going to convince the MAGA faithful that moving on from Trump is anything but another underhanded plot. 

[Arturo Bandini]

(11-20-2022, 12:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I know a couple people like this, but it isn't that surprising given that I live in Oklahoma. It is a bit shocking to see, though. I remember talking to one of these individuals after Biden won and they admitted that they began crying and hyperventilating when Trump lost. They were absolutely terrified of what was going to happen and that the U.S.A. was going to fall into the hands of China. They started speaking about potentially moving to Canada to "escape the madness" and the irony there is they RAILED any liberals acting that way when Trump won in 2016. 

No shit.

Then, of course, they started seething with anger because they thought the election was stolen. They started saying things like "have you seen Biden's rallies? No one shows up. There is no way that Trump lost to him." and proclaiming that Trump was the greatest President the country has had. It's really ***** weird. I enjoy talking politics in person, but I had to start avoiding the topic around this person. Every political topic just ended with them becoming furious that I voted for Biden, regardless of what it was. Oil prices and gas prices? They suddenly knew more than me and everything I said was wrong despite my experience in the industry. It was Biden's fault, and my fault for voting for that "traitor". Leading up to the election, I told them that Biden was likely going to win. That was wrong, too. Why? Trump said so. That's about as deep as it goes. 

Disclaimer that I know there are Democrats who act this way as well but I don't know any personally because of where I live.

That's actually the point of this cult. Being the victim, every effing time. And if there is somehow violence occuring, it was their right because you made them do that.

And somehow, God agrees with them. Everytime and for everything.

Mental health is the 21st century's cancer.

[Arturo Bandini]

(11-20-2022, 12:55 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I'm probably coming into the conversation late. But I made this point at work that people think the Clinton's killed people and had no problem covering it up but a blow job was beyond they're reach? Just not sure that makes sense. On another note the did have a 2 year investigation into Benghazi and it didn't turn up anything that I'm aware of. But that's why I'm fine if Congress wants to investigate things like Hunter bidens laptop. It's hard to sell misinformation in a congressional investigation so let the facts come out. Then it will hopefully take away the power of online false narratives.

That laptop is elusive af. 

Sometimes, the FBI has it, sometimes it's Tucker, sometimes Bannon saw it and it might have the biggest hard drive ever because they still didn't finish to investigate it. And it's way more important than secret classified documents.


This laptop is a mirror, it only tells about the dude who's speaking about it.

[NUGDUKWE]

(11-20-2022, 04:01 PM)Arturo Bandini Wrote: That laptop is elusive af. 

Sometimes, the FBI has it, sometimes it's Tucker, sometimes Bannon saw it and it might have the biggest hard drive ever because they still didn't finish to investigate it. And it's way more important than secret classified documents.


This laptop is a mirror, it only tells about the dude who's speaking about it.

Not too sure it's more important than top secret documents. But let them investigate it because it will cut out all the lies. Not to sure they want that though. But we will see.

[Dill]

(11-20-2022, 11:19 AM)hollodero Wrote: Sure, but that's different. Attack is easy. But attack might also be a conscious or subconscious reaction to the permanent defense mode Trump put his followers in. This week he drew hurricane paths with a sharpie and goes public with it, next he claimed China respects Trump and his very big ah-brain, next he called his former handpicked employees dogs or dumb as a rock, no chronology in these examples, but it just goes on and on. The list of issues that every neutral observer (not just "libs", I for one am not one) must consider deeply embarrassing in the mildest of reactions, the list of things when if Biden said it today he would be declared pretty much braindead, is endless. I guess many people got and get how this is indefensible, just would never admit it, and even understandably so in your climate. And a mechanism to make it defensible is accusing the other side of even more horrific deeds to rationalize. And the worse Trump is, the worse libs have to be. A reaction even self-declared independends often take to stay in balance.

Not that I could ever rationalize believing in conspiracies like the one you mentioned. These are extremes, and these people are obviously cought in their ever-loyal fandom and are lost for any rational discourse. Wild stuff, never peddled in my country to any comparable extent. I'm sure these extremes have nothing to do with a strictly dualistic political system though.

Agree with everything up to the bolded.

There I just want to make the point that the Foster conspiracy goes back to the '90s. He was killed in '93. 

The multiple conspiracy worldview that now grips the GOP was cultivated over two decades before Trump took control.

Now it's rather like a machine which sets to work on every new scandal. And the goal is not simply to deny or normalize
Trump's brutal interpersonal behavior, but his criminality. Think of Tulsi GAbbard's sudden "realization" that Biden had weaponized the DoJ. This is part of an ongoing effort to create a false mirror image of Biden/Garland doing exactly what Trump was always actually trying to do with government offices, with much resistance by his own lawyers.  

Pence spoke of that in an interview with Tapper today, when he expressed deep concern over the raid on Mar a Lago and how it hurt the image of the U.S. abroad. The DOJ had not tried everything to resolve the issue before the raid. 
Nevermind that classified material was leaking out of Trump's storeroom, and he'd had over a year to give back the stolen documents.
This sort of framing keeps the onus for stealing and withholding classified docs on the DoJ and not Trump. Pence also could not say
whether Trump understood the Constitution and respected its institutions. 

There seems to be great difficulty holding Trump accountable, publicly within the party, perhaps in part because it risks popping the 
anti-Dem bubble, still the necessary cement between voters and leadership. 

Millions of people have lived inside this bubble for decades now.

[Arturo Bandini]

(11-20-2022, 05:23 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: Not too sure it's more important than top secret documents. But let them investigate it because it will cut out all the lies. Not to sure they want that though. But we will see.

It just doesn't exist bro ... It's the new boogeyman. Like the caravan, like the wall, like the tax returns or the healthcare plan.

[Dill]

(11-20-2022, 12:55 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I'm probably coming into the conversation late. But I made this point at work that people think the Clinton's killed people and had no problem covering it up but a blow job was beyond they're reach? Just not sure that makes sense. On another note the did have a 2 year investigation into Benghazi and it didn't turn up anything that I'm aware of. But that's why I'm fine if Congress wants to investigate things like Hunter bidens laptop. It's hard to sell misinformation in a congressional investigation so let the facts come out. Then it will hopefully take away the power of online false narratives.

"Turning up something" was not necessarily the point. 

The 7 investigations jammed up the OBama WH for years, and ultimately uncovered Clinton's secret server and private email.

Small potatoes now, but pre-Trump that was huge and, as McCarthy spoke the quiet part out loud, produced a steep drop in her
poll numbers. The server and emails may have, more than anything else, hurt her presidential campaign.

I am curious to see what happens with a Hunter laptop investigation, though. 

I want to go on record now as saying that will be more about constructing a useable narrative around the "Biden Crime family" than actually
finding wrong doing.  Rumors and innuendo become facts in the RW bubble. This will be no exception.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-16-2022, 10:20 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Did they apologize aboot having to tell you to get oot and stay oot?

We. Don't. Talk. Like. That.

(11-17-2022, 05:30 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Well, I'm also black, so I'm pretty sure they not only hate Americans, but black Americans in general. Also Kyrie Irving informed me that black people are the original Jews, so you can throw anti-semetism in there too.

If it wasn't for Donald Trump I'd still be eating poutine and drinking milk from plastic bags (thats a real thing that I still think is weird as hell). Dude needs to be impeached.

If this wasn't a joke:

1. We don't hate anyone, unless you're an asshole.

And even then, we tolerate you.

2. We are arguably the most represented country in the world, in terms of different nations of immigrants.

3. Don't slander.

[samhain]

(11-20-2022, 05:23 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: Not too sure it's more important than top secret documents. But let them investigate it because it will cut out all the lies. Not to sure they want that though. But we will see.

It's going to be like Benghazi.  11 hours of grilling by Congress.  Nothing.  Still insisting that something nefarious happened.  

The right is great at wielding power, but they suck pretty bad at investigating and prosecuting their bs allegations.  Unlike Trump, the accused on the left will actually agree to questioning.  It doesn't matter, because the GOP base believes that the accused are guilty for no other reason than not liking them.

[*pally*]

Trump had dinner with Kanye West and extreme white nationalist leader Nick Fuentes. Fuentes, who was one of the leaders of the "Unite the Right" march in Charlottesville (good people on both sides), also is a holocaust denier, wants to take away the vote from women, calls for a return to segregation, calls African Americans the n word in public speeches. Trump thought Fuentes "got him"

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/25/trump-nick-fuentes-ye-kanye

[StoneTheCrow]

(11-25-2022, 08:12 PM)pally Wrote: Trump had dinner with Kanye West and extreme white nationalist leader Nick Fuentes. Fuentes, who was one of the leaders of the "Unite the Right" march in Charlottesville (good people on both sides), also is a holocaust denier, wants to take away the vote from women, calls for a return to segregation, calls African Americans the n word in public speeches. Trump thought Fuentes "got him"

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/25/trump-nick-fuentes-ye-kanye

I’m reminded of Ace Rothstein firing the pit boss in Casino. Either he’s too stupid to know or he’s in on it. Either way, not acceptable.