USA Industrial Powerhouse?

[NATI BENGALS]

An almost 4x adjustment to quarterly GDP projections seems like a lot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/bidenomics-spurred-stronger-gdp-growth-morgan-stanley.html

As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. That’s nearly four times higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 0.5%.

“The economy in the first half of the year is growing much stronger than we had anticipated, putting a more comfortable cushion under our long-held soft landing view,” Zentner wrote.

The analysts also doubled their original estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter, to 1.3% from 0.6%. Looking into next year, they raised their forecast for real GDP in 2024 by a tenth of a percent, to 1.4%.

“The narrative behind the numbers tells the story of industrial strength in the U.S,” Zentner wrote.




I have concerns though.

People used to work life long union factory jobs when it meant they could retire and have a pension after busting their ass for 30+ years (mid 50s retirement).

I work in a factory now. I worry about our ability to find the willing, competent, and motivated workers needed for success.

[Dill]

(07-22-2023, 02:14 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: An almost 4x adjustment to quarterly GDP projections seems like a lot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/21/bidenomics-spurred-stronger-gdp-growth-morgan-stanley.html

As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. That’s nearly four times higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 0.5%.

“The economy in the first half of the year is growing much stronger than we had anticipated, putting a more comfortable cushion under our long-held soft landing view,” Zentner wrote.

The analysts also doubled their original estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter, to 1.3% from 0.6%. Looking into next year, they raised their forecast for real GDP in 2024 by a tenth of a percent, to 1.4%.

“The narrative behind the numbers tells the story of industrial strength in the U.S,” Zentner wrote.


I have concerns though.

People used to work life long union factory jobs when it meant they could retire and have a pension after busting their ass for 30+ years (mid 50s retirement).

I work in a factory now. I worry about our ability to find the willing, competent, and motivated workers needed for success.

We need to increase levels of immigration. The world is full of willing, competent, and motivated workers.

Do you have a union job? 

[NATI BENGALS]

(07-22-2023, 06:52 AM)Dill Wrote: We need to increase levels of immigration. The world is full of willing, competent, and motivated workers.

Do you have a union job? 

I do. And the last members who qualified for pensions are nearing retirement.

[Dill]

(07-22-2023, 04:04 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I do. And the last members who qualified for pensions are nearing retirement.

Wait. You don't have pensions--just the old guys?

[NATI BENGALS]

(07-22-2023, 04:48 PM)Dill Wrote: Wait. You don't have pensions--just the old guys?

yep

[*michaelsean*]

I shoulda been a fireman or cop. They make plenty and can pull a pension after 20 years, and don’t get me started on the DROP program.

[Dill]

(07-22-2023, 06:39 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: yep

And you are union?

I'm puzzled.

I'm wondering how this fits into the larger picture of how wealth has been shifting from the lower three income quintiles to the top one.

Seems like the weakening and loss of unions is one factor, though not the only one. 

Can you pinpoint some event in your union history that turned the tables for management? And a date, or two?

Just for mu own edification

[NATI BENGALS]

(07-23-2023, 11:10 AM)Dill Wrote: And you are union?

I'm puzzled.

I'm wondering how this fits into the larger picture of how wealth has been shifting from the lower three income quintiles to the top one.

Seems like the weakening and loss of unions is one factor, though not the only one. 

Can you pinpoint some event in your union history that turned the tables for management? And a date, or two?

Just for mu own edification

Happened before I got there. But I would guess a one time bonus to current employees as a signing bonus. They would put a clause in the contract that no member hired after June 2005 qualifies for retirement pension. And no member hired after June 2005 qualifies for a 6th week of vacation. So basically maybe one or two guys currently in the union get screwed but all the new hires get screwed. And they would walk away with a maybe $1500 when they voted to approve the new contract.

[GMDino]

Funny enough we got in a pretty heated discussion about pensions last Friday at dinner.

My buddy was talking about teacher unions and how they have a ridiculous pension system that is "unsustainable".  I made the point that once it was promised they should be forced to see it through.  He said his father worked for a steel mill for 30 years and then his pension wasn't there when he retired.

What I couldn't get him to understand was the pension money didn't disappear...it went to management.  His father got screwed so he thinks it is a bad idea to offer pensions.

Our other friend, much more conservatives says "businesses figured out in the 80's that it was an unsustainable model".  I asked what was different from the 40's to the 80's and then what changed in the 80's.  His answer was "they figured it out".  Refusing to acknowledge that the promises were made, people worked their lives relying on that money being there and then it was just taken away thus adding to the problems of the 80's thru today.

Now, he's not entirely wrong about the pension system.  Promising to pay a fixed amount for the lifetime of the retiree is difficult when it comes to replacing them also.  But what blew my mind was the complete disregard for the worker.  He said he runs a small business and can't afford to offer something like US Steel can.  I agree...so don't.  But if you do then you should make sure you are working to meet that promise at the end.

Then the argument of life expectancy came up.

Them insisting we live "so much longer" than in the 60's.

I pointed out it is less than ten years from 1960 to now and so they went on to say it keeps increasing and we could live to 150 someday! 

No amount of discussion could change his mind that ownership had no obligation to meet the agreements they made.  Just too bad for the workers guess they'll have to make do while their money is stolen.

[Goalpost]

I have a hard time believing that your pension can just get cancelled. I had a pension, and when my company got sold, the new company didn't offer a pension, so they froze my pension at that point. Now... a pension may be managed improperly financially, but just cancelling with money in it, I doubt it.

[*michaelsean*]

(07-24-2023, 10:21 AM)GMDino Wrote: Funny enough we got in a pretty heated discussion about pensions last Friday at dinner.

My buddy was talking about teacher unions and how they have a ridiculous pension system that is "unsustainable".  I made the point that once it was promised they should be forced to see it through.  He said his father worked for a steel mill for 30 years and then his pension wasn't there when he retired.

What I couldn't get him to understand was the pension money didn't disappear...it went to management.  His father got screwed so he thinks it is a bad idea to offer pensions.

Our other friend, much more conservatives says "businesses figured out in the 80's that it was an unsustainable model".  I asked what was different from the 40's to the 80's and then what changed in the 80's.  His answer was "they figured it out".  Refusing to acknowledge that the promises were made, people worked their lives relying on that money being there and then it was just taken away thus adding to the problems of the 80's thru today.

Now, he's not entirely wrong about the pension system.  Promising to pay a fixed amount for the lifetime of the retiree is difficult when it comes to replacing them also.  But what blew my mind was the complete disregard for the worker.  He said he runs a small business and can't afford to offer something like US Steel can.  I agree...so don't.  But if you do then you should make sure you are working to meet that promise at the end.

Then the argument of life expectancy came up.

Them insisting we live "so much longer" than in the 60's.

I pointed out it is less than ten years from 1960 to now and so they went on to say it keeps increasing and we could live to 150 someday! 

No amount of discussion could change his mind that ownership had no obligation to meet the agreements they made.  Just too bad for the workers guess they'll have to make do while their money is stolen.

You definitely should pay it if you promised it.  401K with a matching contribution seems the most viable way today.  We are now owned by people from a different country who live in NY, and they don't believe in any of that stuff.  It was two years before they would contribute anything toward health insurance.  

[GMDino]

(07-24-2023, 10:38 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I have a hard time believing that your pension can just get cancelled.  I had a pension, and when my company got sold, the new company didn't offer a pension, so they froze my pension at that point.  Now... a pension may be managed improperly financially, but just cancelling with money in it, I doubt it.

That is what is told us.  Just gone.

Happened to my dad too.

1983 they locked out the union, closed the plant and moved everything to a sister plant two states away.  Pension was gone.

Sometime in the 2000's or 2010's they finally had a settlement and got pennies on the dollar.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-24-2023, 10:38 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I have a hard time believing that your pension can just get cancelled.  I had a pension, and when my company got sold, the new company didn't offer a pension, so they froze my pension at that point.  Now... a pension may be managed improperly financially, but just cancelling with money in it, I doubt it.

People in the CA legislature constantly threaten to go after our pensions after the fact.  The "not sustainable" argument always raises its head when they do.

[*pally*]

He apparently doesn't realize that teachers get their state retirement, at least in Ohio, in lieu of social security.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Dill]

(07-24-2023, 10:41 AM)michaelsean Wrote: You definitely should pay it if you promised it.  401K with a matching contribution seems the most viable way today.  We are now owned by people from a different country who live in NY, and they don't believe in any of that stuff.  It was two years before they would contribute anything toward health insurance.  

Just curious--which country.