Vegas and ESPN AFC North Division Outlook

[*pally*]

The surprise will come from the oddsmaker who doesn't rank us last. Even when we were good we weren't their favorites

1) Cleveland is the offseason darlings but they and the oddsmakers must remember how seldom that works out in reality

2) Pittsburgh, they say, will be so much better with all the drama queens gone. But we saw how well they played without Antonio Brown in game 17 last year and it wasn't pretty

3) Baltimore is always predicted to be better than they turn out to be in reality. Lamar Jackson will be a bust if he doesn't learn to pass accurately and make better decisions. With his style of play, he will be out with injuries more often than he plays

4) We have question marks for sure but no way do I think we are among the worst teams in the league. I think we will surprise some people in a positive way

[Pat5775]

What were our odds in 2009? Fairly certain both Vegas and espn had us finishing dead last in the league in 2011. Conversely, many experts had us winning the division in 2016.

Point is, these “experts” don’t know jack s***.

[THE PISTONS]

The NFL is tough to predict.

22 starters are a lot of variables to account for.

[*PhilHos*]

(06-18-2019, 12:04 PM)BNSF Wrote: Yes he is. 

2018   26th out of 33 qualified Starters for Passer rating

2017   17th out of 32

2016  15th out of 30


2015  2nd out of 32 

2014  25th out of 33

2013  15th out of 37 


2012  13th out of 32

2011   20th out of 34


3 of his 8 seasons hes been a top 50% QB.   5 of his 8 he has been at 50% or lower

The definition of below avg - But I am sure hes the only qb to have injuries and coaching changes to deal w

There is so much wrong with your methodology here that it would take forever to unravel all that's wrong with it, but let me just say that by any OBJECTIVE measurement, Dalton is an above average QB. 

[Earendil]

(06-18-2019, 10:28 AM)BNSF Wrote: I wish I shared your enthusiasm

Bad o line
Below avg qb
Aging wr 1
Worst defense in football w zero additions.


Ppl expecting magic this year are in for a long winter  

I’ll take the under on wins

You just spread sunshine everywhere you go, don't you?

[BFritz21]

(06-18-2019, 10:25 AM)BNSF Wrote: Sports betting is legal in Indiana

So for  all of you bengal fan super Betors, head 23 miles west and make your prop bets.   There is no excuse.  You don’t have to go to Vegas.


It’s Almost like our fans get men in black mind erases ever year.

Do any of the riverboat casinos have sportsbooks now?!  They never use to.  

[NKURyan]

(06-18-2019, 12:04 PM)BNSF Wrote: Yes he is. 

2018   26th out of 33 qualified Starters for Passer rating

2017   17th out of 32

2016  15th out of 30


2015  2nd out of 32 

2014  25th out of 33

2013  15th out of 37 


2012  13th out of 32

2011   20th out of 34


3 of his 8 seasons hes been a top 50% QB.   5 of his 8 he has been at 50% or lower

The definition of below avg - But I am sure hes the only qb to have injuries and coaching changes to deal w

Tom Brady only finished 12th in passer rating last year, what a mediocre quarterback.

That Ryan Fitzpatrick, though, he's one of the top 10 guys in the league.

What a fantastic statistic for measuring QBs.

[BNSF]

(06-18-2019, 05:26 PM)NKURyan Wrote: Tom Brady only finished 12th in passer rating last year, what a mediocre quarterback.

That Ryan Fitzpatrick, though, he's one of the top 10 guys in the league.

What a fantastic statistic for measuring QBs.

So we can’t use passer rating to measure dalton

Can’t use total qbr (Dalton is bottom 3rd by that meaure)

Can’t use playoff success

What can we use to to measure AD?

[THE PISTONS]

(06-18-2019, 07:08 PM)BNSF Wrote: So we can’t use passer rating to measure dalton

Can’t use total qbr (Dalton is bottom 3rd by that meaure)

Can’t use playoff success

What can we use to to measure AD?

Yeah that's how the board works. Stats don't matter unless they prove what people want them to prove.

Dalton is average at best by every measure.

The funny thing when we ask the forum to rank QB's in the NFL, he usually comes out somewhere between 12-16...which is basically average to a tad above average.

I feel like IF Aaron Rodgers were on the Bengals, we wouldn't be 0-7 in the playoffs. Same with Tom Brady. Russell Wilson.

[BengalChris]

(06-18-2019, 07:08 PM)BNSF Wrote: So we can’t use passer rating to measure dalton

Can’t use total qbr (Dalton is bottom 3rd by that meaure)

Can’t use playoff success

What can we use to to measure AD?

Don't take it so personally. You can measure Dalton however you want. Just realize that not everyone will see it the way you do and they aren't interested in you convincing them otherwise and it's certainly not worth being upset about.

There is a Dalton is Elite crowd who all know that Dalton is really in the top 5 QBs of the NFL and nothing you say or do will change their minds about it. It's just that he's been dealt a horrible hand with bad OL or bad coaching or no weapons or no running game - stay long enough and you'll hear all the reasons. Sorta like the Ross is Amazing crowd who all know for sure that he is great, but the coaches just don't know how to use WRs, the QBs are incompetent and he's still really just a rookie after all. The stats be damned no matter how bad they are.

ADDED: Yeah, most people will put Dalton between 13-18 or there abouts and say average QB. Some years better, some years worse. It's tough to win a SB with an average QB, but it has been done several times and it usually requires a very good defense and some dynamic play makers on offense.

 

[NKURyan]

(06-18-2019, 07:08 PM)BNSF Wrote: So we can’t use passer rating to measure dalton

Can’t use total qbr (Dalton is bottom 3rd by that meaure)

Can’t use playoff success

What can we use to to measure AD?

I like PFR's advanced passing metrics personally. Since you brought up passer rating, let's look at their advanced passer rating index which compares player performance for that season to league averages over the surrounding three year spans (ie, his 2015 season is compared to all other QBs from 2014 to 2016). A score of 100 represents "average", and Andy measures a 102 - which by definition makes him slightly above average. He also rates above average for his career in completion %, TD %, and yards per attempt as well. 

And before someone tries to move the goalposts here, none of this is to say Andy's a great QB for his career or anything, but he is most certainly not a "below average QB" as you've claimed. It's just the same type of overstated hyperbole that's thrown all over these boards.

[NKURyan]

(06-18-2019, 07:40 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Dalton is average at best by every measure.

No argument there, but that's not what he claimed. Let's move the goalposts, though!

[NKURyan]

(06-18-2019, 07:40 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I feel like IF Aaron Rodgers were on the Bengals, we wouldn't be 0-7 in the playoffs. Same with Tom Brady. Russell Wilson.

Oh wow, you mean to tell me if they had an elite level QB they'd have won one of those games? What a shock.

Andy started 3 of those games. If Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, or any of those guys in the same group as Dalton were here they still would've lost each and every one of those playoff games (except 2015, but Andy would've won that game too). I'm sure even Rogers or Wilson win with the offensive players they ran out there for the playoff game in 2014.

Hell, the 2009 playoff game was started by the "elite" Carson Palmer and he was hot garbage out there. But of course, when talking about how "elite" Carson was he have to cherry pick certain seasons to base his whole career summary on, so maybe that doesn't count.

But sure, let's pretend Andy's the problem and ignore everything else.

[*Nately120*]

(06-18-2019, 08:00 PM)NKURyan Wrote: I like PFR's advanced passing metrics personally. Since you brought up passer rating, let's look at their advanced passer rating index which compares player performance for that season to league averages over the surrounding three year spans (ie, his 2015 season is compared to all other QBs from 2014 to 2016). A score of 100 represents "average", and Andy measures a 102 - which by definition makes him slightly above average. He also rates above average for his career in completion %, TD %, and yards per attempt as well. 

And before someone tries to move the goalposts here, none of this is to say Andy's a great QB for his career or anything, but he is most certainly not a "below average QB" as you've claimed. It's just the same type of overstated hyperbole that's thrown all over these boards.

Dalton is pretty good, but I think he gets overlooked here because the only year he was really vying for the top-tier compared to his peers is 2015 where he ended the season on IR.  Anderson, Esiason, and Palmer had All-pro seasons and times where they were (somewhat briefly here, for Palmer, admittedly) in the top tier with their peers.

Dalton was close to having that elite season in 2015 but ehh...damn Steelers win again, you know?

(06-18-2019, 08:29 PM)NKURyan Wrote: Hell, the 2009 playoff game was started by the "elite" Carson Palmer and he was hot garbage out there. But of course, when talking about how "elite" Carson was he have to cherry pick certain seasons to base his whole career summary on, so maybe that doesn't count.

A number of QBs have elite seasons and then return to the pack.  Matt Ryan and Cam Newton come to mind at the moment, I'm sure Nick Foles won't be elite anymore, stuff like that.  Andy was having his elite year, but he got injured so we have to cherry-pick and have had to for our QBs during the whole Mike Brown era.

[NKURyan]

(06-18-2019, 09:28 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Dalton is pretty good, but I think he gets overlooked here because the only year he was really vying for the top-tier compared to his peers is 2015 where he ended the season on IR.  Anderson, Esiason, and Palmer had All-pro seasons and times where they were (somewhat briefly here, for Palmer, admittedly) in the top tier with their peers.

Anderson, Esiason, and Palmer also had times where they were pretty mediocre-to-bad here at times, as well.

Carson threw 20+ INTs here in two different seasons... Andy only has one season like that, but at least he had 33 TDs that year
Boomer had 3 seasons here where he finished with more INTs than TDs (and one other where he came really close)... Andy's never done that.
Anderson had *6* seasons where he couldn't manage more TDs than INTs. In 1978 he had 10 TDs vs 22 INTs! (And yes, it was a different game back then, but come on, those are bad numbers)

So is the ceiling as high for Andy as it was for any of those three guys? No, but his floor has been higher and that's a big reason why Andy's lead the Bengals to more playoff appearances than any of the others.

[*Nately120*]

(06-19-2019, 12:15 AM)NKURyan Wrote: Anderson, Esiason, and Palmer also had times where they were pretty mediocre-to-bad here at times, as well.

Carson threw 20+ INTs here in two different seasons... Andy only has one season like that, but at least he had 33 TDs that year
Boomer had 3 seasons here where he finished with more INTs than TDs (and one other where he came really close)... Andy's never done that.
Anderson had *6* seasons where he couldn't manage more TDs than INTs. In 1978 he had 10 TDs vs 22 INTs! (And yes, it was a different game back then, but come on, those are bad numbers)

So is the ceiling as high for Andy as it was for any of those three guys? No, but his floor has been higher and that's a big reason why Andy's lead the Bengals to more playoff appearances than any of the others.

I'm not ragging on Dalton, I'm just saying outsiders tend to remember high ceilings more than high floors.  Again, I think Dalton is better than most people think, but I can also see why someone who isn't a fan of the Bengals wouldn't take notice of him because only 2015 had that "look out for Dalton" narrative going.

Same thing with the Bengals' playoff run.  Fans of most other teams aren't going to bow to our 5-straight 12th place seasons any more than they will be in awe of our QB who can finish in the top 15 or so with regularity.  That's just the way it is outside of this message board.

[grampahol]

Not every last place team gets to have an Andy Dalton as their standard bearer for as long as the Bengals have had him, not that we've been in last place with him very much. To the contrary, last place in not where this team is going to dwell as long as Andy can still perform at a high level. Most teams would give their left nuts for the likes of him at the helm with few exceptions. Does anyone doubt the squeelers would love to snap him up on the free market if we let him walk? 

[NKURyan]

(06-19-2019, 12:47 AM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm not ragging on Dalton, I'm just saying outsiders tend to remember high ceilings more than high floors. 

Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think it's those high ceilings keeping Ken Anderson out of the Hall of Fame (where plenty of folks here think he belongs).

And we're not even talking to outsiders here - people on these boards should know better. I just think it's really weird that we seemingly only form our opinion on Palmer based on how he played in 05-06, on Boomer based on 88-89, and on Anderson based on 1975 and 1981, but when talking about Andy it's important that we take 2015 with a grain of salt and look at his career as a whole to trash the guy.

Andy's been good here. He's been steady, and I think you could confidently say that, barring injury, you're going to get mid-to-upper 20 TDs next year with INTs in the low teens with a completion percentage over 60%. Anybody who sits here and says they wouldn't take that next year is nuts. And I get that there will always be people who want more, more, more, but calling Andy below average (see: earlier in the thread) is a stretch.

[Circleville Guy]

Vegas sometimes gets it wrong but usually is in the ballpark. I could see 7-8 wins if things go right. Vegas factors in actual team wide talent, proven coaching and doesn’t assume that every injured player will come back as if nothing had ever happened. Declining with age for key players is a thing too. Vegas should be a realistic look at where the Bengals are, there isn’t the politics and bias. Most fans can’t handle the truth if there’s any negative involved.

[NKURyan]

(06-19-2019, 08:23 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: Vegas sometimes gets it wrong but usually is in the ballpark. I could see 7-8 wins if things go right. Vegas factors in actual team wide talent, proven coaching and doesn’t assume that every injured player will come back as if nothing had ever happened. Declining with age for key players is a thing too. Vegas should be a realistic look at where the Bengals are, there isn’t the politics and bias. Most fans can’t handle the truth if there’s any negative involved.

For what it's worth, last year Vegas was way off base (more than 2.5 games in the over/under) on the Bears, Packers, Texans, Colts, Jags, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, and 49ers. That's almost a third of the league! Like all predictions, take it with a large grain of salt and enjoy the hopefully entertaining discussions it leads to.