Virginia/New Jersey Governor races

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

How come no ones talking about this? I thought these races were kind of a big deal.

[Belsnickel]

They are a big deal, but most folks on here aren't paying attention to them. Obviously, as a Virginian, I've been heavily invested in the races here. I'm not shocked by the outcomes for us. Despite so many of the liberals in my area, as well as the media, trying to say Virginia is a blue state, it has been and will remain purple. The Dems tried hard to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, but that didn't stick very well. Youngkin isn't someone who has spent a ton of time in politics, so he doesn't really have a policy background that they could point to that would really portray him as a Trump-style individual.

Meanwhile, McAuliffe was just a terrible idea and many of us were saying as much from the start. That, combined with him really stepping in it during the debates and a poorly run campaign (IMHO), spelled his doom. There isn't a ton of tolerance right now for the political elite in the Commonwealth, and McAuliffe is a member of that group. And then there is the whole Biden factor, which hurts all Democrats running but especially those with a strong tie to the establishment.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(11-03-2021, 07:34 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: They are a big deal, but most folks on here aren't paying attention to them. Obviously, as a Virginian, I've been heavily invested in the races here. I'm not shocked by the outcomes for us. Despite so many of the liberals in my area, as well as the media, trying to say Virginia is a blue state, it has been and will remain purple. The Dems tried hard to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, but that didn't stick very well. Youngkin isn't someone who has spent a ton of time in politics, so he doesn't really have a policy background that they could point to that would really portray him as a Trump-style individual.

Meanwhile, McAuliffe was just a terrible idea and many of us were saying as much from the start. That, combined with him really stepping in it during the debates and a poorly run campaign (IMHO), spelled his doom. There isn't a ton of tolerance right now for the political elite in the Commonwealth, and McAuliffe is a member of that group. And then there is the whole Biden factor, which hurts all Democrats running but especially those with a strong tie to the establishment.

I agree he should have never let Biden stump for him right now at all. Also if he wasn’t going to support school choice at this time he might have been better off avoiding the topic altogether. (I don’t know if that statement about parents not being involved in school was post the school issue blowing up or not though)

I’m surprised about New Jersey. Pretty sure the Democrat is still going to win but both states had massive swings toward red in almost every single county besides one (between the 2 of them). I wonder if NJ dems we’re assuming that seat was safe and just didn’t turn out as well as the Republicans did?

Edit: the fact that apparently the off election seats constantly swing in the opposite direction of the previous presidential race should indicate at least a somewhat purple state.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

Also these results are going to scare the hell out of any Democrat that does not have a wide lead for their seat. Can probably forget getting Manchin or Sinema to go out of their way to do anything as long as the political climate looks like this.

[*Nately120*]

I think democrats can handle stuff like the VA loss as long as the candidates who run on a simple platform of "I'm Trump in high heels" or "I'm going to govern by the book of Trump" etc don't win.

Republicans making gains outside of the white house is standard stuff after a Democrat gets elected and vice versa, no?

[Belsnickel]

(11-03-2021, 07:39 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I agree he should have never let Biden stump for him right now at all. Also if he wasn’t going to support school choice at this time he might have been better off avoiding the topic altogether. (I don’t know if that statement about parents not being involved in school was post the school issue blowing up or not though)

The school issue really blew up after that comment. Honestly, though, school choice is a shitty policy idea and I'm fine with him coming out against that. But, his statement was very anti-democratic and thus problematic.

(11-03-2021, 07:59 AM)Nately120 Wrote: I think democrats can handle stuff like the VA loss as long as the candidates who run on a simple platform of "I'm Trump in high heels" or "I'm going to govern by the book of Trump" etc don't win.

Republicans making gains outside of the white house is standard stuff after a Democrat gets elected and vice versa, no?

That's the thing. The Democrats tried hard to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, but his positions just didn't match. Trump is very unpopular in Virginia, so being Trumpish would not have worked. We'll see what happens, though. The state being so purple will mean, IMO, that what is to come will be rather measured because they know that if they go hard next year they will lose their footing in 2023.

[*Nately120*]

(11-03-2021, 08:21 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: The school issue really blew up after that comment. Honestly, though, school choice is a shitty policy idea and I'm fine with him coming out against that. But, his statement was very anti-democratic and thus problematic.


That's the thing. The Democrats tried hard to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, but his positions just didn't match. Trump is very unpopular in Virginia, so being Trumpish would not have worked. We'll see what happens, though. The state being so purple will mean, IMO, that what is to come will be rather measured because they know that if they go hard next year they will lose their footing in 2023.

Youngkin played his part in minimizing the Trump stuff, too.  Whether it's the men themselves or the times, we have Trump amd Biden as two prrsidents who inspire people to rally against them.  Their touch is pretty poisonous and Youngkin backed away from Trump and McCauliff had Biden vouching for him. 

As someone who doesn't want to see Biden vs Trump part 2 in 2024, I'm cautiously optimistic. 

[Goalpost]

I flipped the channels around last night. To me it seemed McCauliff did alright in the big cities, but lost the suburban moms. The teaching issue kept coming up. And that teacher's union woman, the night before for McCauliff, good lord.

[*Nately120*]

Side note, the polls pretty much nailed the VA governor's race result.

Anywho, candidate who talks about Trump the most loses...we shall see if this holds and convinces both sides to resist using the T word. 

[Goalpost]

Here in Cincinnati, we had a string of corruption incidents with the prior people, and looks like that proved costly. Council people were granting contracts in the city to the 'highest bidder,' who well, paid them to get chosen. Turnout here was low though.

[GMDino]

I guess I'm not surprised that some places like VA are going republican this year.  In general I feel people swing party to party every few years and specifically there.

Plus there are so many people like this that vote that even if I could do anything to educate them it would be a waste of time.

Asked why he was voting today, Michael Schuster unzipped his jacket. “Better to vote than to start shooting all you progressive guys,” he said. “It’s better to vote. I’m not a violent person.” pic.twitter.com/o5IvHRQyUo

— Rory Linnane (@RoryLinnane) November 2, 2021

 

[*Nately120*]

(11-03-2021, 11:10 AM)GMDino Wrote: I guess I'm not surprised that some places like VA are going republican this year.  In general I feel people swing party to party every few years and specifically there.

Plus there are so many people like this that vote that even if I could do anything to educate them it would be a waste of time.

Asked why he was voting today, Michael Schuster unzipped his jacket. “Better to vote than to start shooting all you progressive guys,” he said. “It’s better to vote. I’m not a violent person.” pic.twitter.com/o5IvHRQyUo

— Rory Linnane (@RoryLinnane) November 2, 2021

 

The whole "shoot the progressives" notion is pretty bizarre seeing as it is going to generally involve a lot of armed men shooting and killing unarmed women.  

How very Christian of people to get excited at the notion.  Also, I went to a school and a college where the Bible was taught....maybe people who insist the Bible be part of school should show some damn initiative and quit being cheap and relying on the government.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(11-03-2021, 07:34 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: They are a big deal, but most folks on here aren't paying attention to them. Obviously, as a Virginian, I've been heavily invested in the races here. I'm not shocked by the outcomes for us. Despite so many of the liberals in my area, as well as the media, trying to say Virginia is a blue state, it has been and will remain purple. The Dems tried hard to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, but that didn't stick very well. Youngkin isn't someone who has spent a ton of time in politics, so he doesn't really have a policy background that they could point to that would really portray him as a Trump-style individual.

Meanwhile, McAuliffe was just a terrible idea and many of us were saying as much from the start. That, combined with him really stepping in it during the debates and a poorly run campaign (IMHO), spelled his doom. There isn't a ton of tolerance right now for the political elite in the Commonwealth, and McAuliffe is a member of that group. And then there is the whole Biden factor, which hurts all Democrats running but especially those with a strong tie to the establishment.

I followed it closely, mainly because I lived there as a kid (Fort Lee) and because I was interested in your prediction about election results following a strong Dem push on gun rights, etc.  Your take on McAuliffe is spot on, he literally couldn't stop stepping in it.  His comments about parents essentially having no say in their children's education were just mind blowingly stupid.  I think that tiki torch stunt really hurt him as well.  It wasn't just Lincoln Project idiots (btw could that organization be more tarnished at this point?), there were Dem operatives in there as well.  I think people really found that stunt distasteful.  But, of course, I'm not there to see that firsthand.

(11-03-2021, 07:59 AM)Nately120 Wrote: I think democrats can handle stuff like the VA loss as long as the candidates who run on a simple platform of "I'm Trump in high heels" or "I'm going to govern by the book of Trump" etc don't win.  

Republicans making gains outside of the white house is standard stuff after a Democrat gets elected and vice versa, no?

Yes and no.  Certainly at the national level, that has been the common result.  But this was supposed to be a slam dunk easy win for the Dems and McAuliffe blew it, big time, for reasons Bel already addressed.  

(11-03-2021, 08:56 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I flipped the channels around last night.  To me it seemed McCauliff did alright in the big cities, but lost the suburban moms.  The teaching issue kept coming up.  And that teacher's union woman, the night before for McCauliff, good lord.

Bel can certainly correct me if I'm wrong, but that's pretty much how VA elections run in general.  The suburbs are really the only "swing" areas.

(11-03-2021, 11:10 AM)GMDino Wrote: I guess I'm not surprised that some places like VA are going republican this year.  In general I feel people swing party to party every few years and specifically there.

Plus there are so many people like this that vote that even if I could do anything to educate them it would be a waste of time.

Asked why he was voting today, Michael Schuster unzipped his jacket. “Better to vote than to start shooting all you progressive guys,” he said. “It’s better to vote. I’m not a violent person.” pic.twitter.com/o5IvHRQyUo

— Rory Linnane (@RoryLinnane) November 2, 2021

 

C'mon, man, that's just silly.  It would take anyone about five seconds to find a similar tweet from some far left lunatic.  Twitter is the most cancerous place on the internet, it's chocked full of awful people, with awful takes, spanning the political spectrum.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

I think the most interesting takeaway from VA, and it will be an enormous issue going forward, is the issue of what's being taught in public schools and how. The Dems are really going to have to find a message other than "white fragility" to counter concerns about race and how it is taught/discussed in school. In theory the idea of teaching children about the full scope of American history, and how race has played into that history, shouldn't be controversial. However, and as someone who has multiple friends who are public school teachers I can confirm, it only takes one teacher going overboard on the subject to make it a problem. I can further guarantee you that it will be far more than one teacher and the issue will reoccur across the nation. By framing concerns about lessons that go too far, or a teacher making inappropriate statements, as white people being too "fragile" to take the truth is a losing argument all day.

I said it a long time ago, the Dems have way overplayed the race card and people are sick of hearing about it. And by people, I mean people of all ethnicities. Accusations of racism are very powerful, and thus should be used sparingly and only when it's plain to all watching that its use is appropriate. That has absolutely not been the case for the past several years and we're starting to see the results.

[*Nately120*]

If McCauliff blew it big time then the democrats need to learn and move on. Only idiots would double down on a losing hand. Youngkin saw others talk the Trump game and suffer for it, and he learned from their mistakes.

Gotta play the game.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

If I may, I'd like to add the following, related, topic as well. The long time mayor of Buffalo lost the primary to, what many describe as, a far left socialist. The challenger, India Walton, earned significant praise from AOC for her positions and was endorsed by her as well as both Warren and Schumer. The mayor then started a write in campaign, which I thought had zero chance of being successful. Apparently he not only won, but did so in convincing fashion, 59-41%. It's certainly not earth shattering news, Buffalo is a smaller city in rural NY, but it's interesting in its repudiation of the far left positions that earned Walton the Dem party nod and, ultimately, cost her the race.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/03/politics/buffalo-mayor-byron-brown/index.html

[Belsnickel]

(11-03-2021, 12:10 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I followed it closely, mainly because I lived there as a kid (Fort Lee) and because I was interested in your prediction about election results following a strong Dem push on gun rights, etc.  Your take on McAuliffe is spot on, he literally couldn't stop stepping in it.  His comments about parents essentially having no say in their children's education were just mind blowingly stupid.  I think that tiki torch stunt really hurt him as well.  It wasn't just Lincoln Project idiots (btw could that organization be more tarnished at this point?), there were Dem operatives in there as well.  I think people really found that stunt distasteful.  But, of course, I'm not there to see that firsthand.

Honestly, I almost ignored this race entirely. I don't even know what tiki torch stunt you're talking about. But I'm also one of those that votes on stated policy positions and not the dog-and-pony show that is political theater. But yes, the Lincoln Project is a shit organization and I have been warning those around me on the left of them from the beginning. They had some funny memes and they did some good work, but they aren't our friends.

(11-03-2021, 12:10 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Bel can certainly correct me if I'm wrong, but that's pretty much how VA elections run in general.  The suburbs are really the only "swing" areas.

Yup. So, you have the urban areas of NOVA, Richmond, and a good chunk of the tidewater areas that run blue, and the rest of the state runs red. But the suburb areas around those cities can be swayed. It is 100% an urban and rural divide in this state with suburbs being that "no-man's-land."

(11-03-2021, 12:17 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I think the most interesting takeaway from VA, and it will be an enormous issue going forward, is the issue of what's being taught in public schools and how. The Dems are really going to have to find a message other than "white fragility" to counter concerns about race and how it is taught/discussed in school. In theory the idea of teaching children about the full scope of American history, and how race has played into that history, shouldn't be controversial. However, and as someone who has multiple friends who are public school teachers I can confirm, it only takes one teacher going overboard on the subject to make it a problem. I can further guarantee you that it will be far more than one teacher and the issue will reoccur across the nation. By framing concerns about lessons that go too far, or a teacher making inappropriate statements, as white people being too "fragile" to take the truth is a losing argument all day.

I said it a long time ago, the Dems have way overplayed the race card and people are sick of hearing about it. And by people, I mean people of all ethnicities. Accusations of racism are very powerful, and thus should be used sparingly and only when it's plain to all watching that its use is appropriate. That has absolutely not been the case for the past several years and we're starting to see the results.

Honestly, I'm ready for a complete overhaul of our education system in general. But in the meantime, it is tough here in Virginia where we have a history that is so drenched in racial issues. It's hard to teach about the first slaves landing here in 1619 and the way in which the idea of "whiteness" and "blackness" were cultivated almost entirely to justify the chattel slavery that was kicked off during that century without really getting into that. Living in rural Virginia as I do, I will say that a lot of the time people tend to have a problem with something a teacher did when they really didn't go overboard. I've seen it here so often. We have people disrupting school board meetings in the county, here, over an issue that isn't even happening in their schools. They just want to be outraged over something and the astroturfing by Koch organizations is usually the reason for it.

(11-03-2021, 12:18 PM)Nately120 Wrote: If McCauliff blew it big time then the democrats need to learn and move on. Only idiots would double down on a losing hand. Youngkin saw others talk the Trump game and suffer for it, and he learned from their mistakes.

Gotta play the game.

Pfft. Our state Democrats responded to learning the lesson about ignoring rural Democratic voters by completely shutting out rural Democrats from leadership in the party.

[*Nately120*]

(11-03-2021, 02:40 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Pfft. Our state Democrats responded to learning the lesson about ignoring rural Democratic voters by completely shutting out rural Democrats from leadership in the party.

You mean they didn't lose this election because Rudy Giuliani used a snapchat Abe Lincoln filter and linked McAuliffe to the Clinton's and their bedroom scandal?

[GMDino]

(11-03-2021, 12:08 PM)Nately120 Wrote: The whole "shoot the progressives" notion is pretty bizarre seeing as it is going to generally involve a lot of armed men shooting and killing unarmed women.  

How very Christian of people to get excited at the notion.  Also, I went to a school and a college where the Bible was taught....maybe people who insist the Bible be part of school should show some damn initiative and quit being cheap and relying on the government.

(11-03-2021, 02:40 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Honestly, I almost ignored this race entirely. I don't even know what tiki torch stunt you're talking about. But I'm also one of those that votes on stated policy positions and not the dog-and-pony show that is political theater. But yes, the Lincoln Project is a shit organization and I have been warning those around me on the left of them from the beginning. They had some funny memes and they did some good work, but they aren't our friends.


Yup. So, you have the urban areas of NOVA, Richmond, and a good chunk of the tidewater areas that run blue, and the rest of the state runs red. But the suburb areas around those cities can be swayed. It is 100% an urban and rural divide in this state with suburbs being that "no-man's-land."


Honestly, I'm ready for a complete overhaul of our education system in general. But in the meantime, it is tough here in Virginia where we have a history that is so drenched in racial issues. It's hard to teach about the first slaves landing here in 1619 and the way in which the idea of "whiteness" and "blackness" were cultivated almost entirely to justify the chattel slavery that was kicked off during that century without really getting into that. Living in rural Virginia as I do, I will say that a lot of the time people tend to have a problem with something a teacher did when they really didn't go overboard. I've seen it here so often. We have people disrupting school board meetings in the county, here, over an issue that isn't even happening in their schools. They just want to be outraged over something and the astroturfing by Koch organizations is usually the reason for it.


Pfft. Our state Democrats responded to learning the lesson about ignoring rural Democratic voters by completely shutting out rural Democrats from leadership in the party.

I saw a tweet this morning that women who never went to college voted something like 75% republican yesterday.

I also saw a video that said the last time a VA Governor won a second term he won the first as a Democrat and the second as a republican.

Here's the info on that one:

Quote:Mills Godwin, a segregationist and holdout from the Byrd machine, was the only governor to be popularly elected twice: first as a Democrat in 1966, then again as a Republican in 1974, with Republican Linwood Holton sandwiched in between.


In his first term, Godwin was able to establish the state’s community college system and pass a new sales tax. He faced stiffer economic headwinds in his second term, according to Sabato.


“In the ‘70s the economy was terrible when he was serving,” Sabato said. “So he had a very different set of problems, and had to worry about cutting in the 1970s.”


William “Extra Billy” Smith also served two terms that straddled the 1851 constitution. He was selected by the legislature in 1846 and later elected as Virginia's last Confedereate governor in 1864.

[jj22]

Elections are legit if you win, rigged if you lose? I honestly know majority of Americans lack character and this only proves it as the elections are rigged crowd celebrates this win and claims a political landscape change. But I'll never no matter the majority, think this is what we as people should be. I think it's lame, and will always think this no matter if I am in the minority. This is the country we live in. Celebrate a win, cry "rigged" and fake if lose. Class and character is just frowned upon in this political climate and Country.

Anyway, any update if JFK showed up for the 100's of thousands that came to see him in Texas as they were told he was going to announce Trumps reinstatement? You have to chuckle at the lies they are told and believe, but at this point the lies and conspiracy's that are being believed and what we are being sold from Republicans is far deeper and darker then ever before.

Folks may slam me for wondering if the country is lost given the hundreds of thousands lining the streets to see someone dead, and people voting for a party that pushes this because they belong to that party, but in real life, this is unhealthy and is a sign of our future leadership and it isn't bright.