Watch for Rising Gasoline prices this summer

[Stewy]

Two Gulf Coast refineries gasoline producing units are currently down.

TotalEnergies Port Arthur refinery in Texas is completely down after they discovered a leak they have to repair (no time frame) and ExxonMobil Baton Rouge refinery's gasoline unit has been down and likely will be down for weeks more.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gas-Prices-Inch-Higher-As-TotalEnergies-Shuts-Down-Port-Arthur-Refinery.html

With oil prices rising due to a supply/demand gap and these refineries down, gas is likely to spike hard during the driving season. Plan accordingly if you're planning vacation this summer.

[*pally*]

thanks for the update

[SunsetBengal]

With hurricane season fast approaching, it's a good thing that vacation season is almost over..

[grampahol]

Who knew Hunter controlled all the oil refineries? I'm sure some schmuck will try making that claim in 3..2..1..

[samhain]

(08-05-2023, 01:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: With hurricane season fast approaching, it's a good thing that vacation season is almost over..

Yeah, summer ends for me and many parents when "back to school" season begins, and we're in the thick of that now.

[samhain]

(08-05-2023, 01:52 PM)grampahol Wrote: Who knew Hunter controlled all the oil refineries? I'm sure some schmuck will try making that claim in 3..2..1..

Connect the dots, bro.

[grampahol]

(08-05-2023, 02:48 PM)samhain Wrote: Connect the dots, bro.

C'mon man! I have to wait for my official tin foil hat and magic dot connection pencil to arive from Amazon..

[samhain]

(08-05-2023, 02:58 PM)grampahol Wrote: C'mon man! I have to wait for my official tin foil hat and magic dot connection pencil to arive from Amazon..

I'm hearing some things on the back channels.  Probably from some high-ranking military double agents.  You will know when he gives the sign.

[CJD]

My company used to do engineering and construction work in oil refineries before we sold off our Oil and Gas division (the projects were mostly small cap and relatively low dividend compared to pharmaceutical projects) and so I spent a lot of my 20s walking Oil refineries.

My boss at the time liked to ask me semi-open ended questions and one of the things he asked me one day was, "What is the most valuable resource when it comes to processing petroleum?"

I thought for a moment...Is it the crude? Maybe the equipment? The utilities for heating and cooling the processes? Or does he mean the operators and engineers as like a gotcha answer?

He said....time.

When a facility is running all day every day (with planned shutdowns/turnarounds only once a year at most and often times closer to 3 to 5 years), a pump being down for a day or a week or a month with no replacement or repair could cost the company millions of dollars that they will never make back, because that time is gone forever.

There is always more crude, there's always more equipment, people, electricity etc. But the time is fleeting. Every hour that you aren't refining oil is an hour that you will never get back.

I used this consideration whenever I designed anything in those refineries and actually convinced one client to install back up pumps on a few processes that would grind the entire refinery to a halt if the pump were to go down. More capital cost up front, but if that pump were down for even 1 full day, the ROI would be reached for springing for the back up pumps.

A lot of these refineries are old now (the one I did a lot of work in is over 125 years old at this point) so a lot of things are breaking down over time. You do your best to fit the work (especially preventative work to protect the most crucial equipment) into those turnaround windows but sometimes it just doesn't work out and planned work needs to be kicked to the next turnaround (which could be several years away). It's a shame when things like this occur because of how many things it impacts downstream. Hopefully, the ramifications aren't too bad.

[SunsetBengal]

(08-05-2023, 02:58 PM)grampahol Wrote: C'mon man! I have to wait for my official tin foil hat and magic dot connection pencil to arive from Amazon..

Hopefully your Joe Biden babble-mumble/Kamala Harris word salad decoder ring comes as an added bonus..

[CJD]

(08-05-2023, 12:31 PM)Stewy Wrote: Two Gulf Coast refineries gasoline producing units are currently down.

TotalEnergies Port Arthur refinery in Texas is completely down after they discovered a leak they have to repair (no time frame) and ExxonMobil Baton Rouge refinery's gasoline unit has been down and likely will be down for weeks more.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gas-Prices-Inch-Higher-As-TotalEnergies-Shuts-Down-Port-Arthur-Refinery.html

With oil prices rising due to a supply/demand gap and these refineries down, gas is likely to spike hard during the driving season.  Plan accordingly if you're planning vacation this summer.

Port Arthur is the largest refinery in America, right?

[basballguy]

Oil still only 82 bucks a barrel but up 5 straight weeks. It looks primed to continue to 100.

Though the counter is OPEC has been saying for months that 80 dollars a barrel is the target and they may opt to not reduce production again at the next meeting thus driving prices back down. 100 bucks is still the taboo number.

I bet it gets up to the high 90s just in time for the next OPEC meeting for everyone to put the spotlight on them…I thought they met every two months but next meeting is October. Maybe it’ll get over 100 by then?

[Luvnit2]

Biden seems to missed the business case for supply and demand. His policies against fossil fuels cost the US the ability to control pricing by having a huge US supply, he countered everything Trump did to make America energy independent. In 1st year we had to buy dirty oil (oil is US is much cleaner) whicjhjacked up fuel prices triggering inflation.

Sadly, his big push to eliminate gas fueled cars is also poorly planned out. We don't have the lithium needed to meet the Democrat ad Biden goals. We do not have the charging stations either.
https://insideevs.com/news/652195/ev-charging-stations-reliability-low/
EV Charging Stations In The US Are Plagued By Reliability Issues: Study
At least 1 in 5 charging attempts have failed last year.

The Biden push to appease the far left is overly aggressive. His energy policies depend on no issues with refineries, hardly a well thought out plan. So as gas prices rise again, it is Biden's lack of a vision in the near future adding costs at the pump.

[Dill]

(08-05-2023, 04:05 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Biden seems to missed the business case for supply and demand. His policies against fossil fuels cost the US the ability to control pricing by having a huge US supply, he countered everything Trump did to make America energy independent. In 1st year we had to buy dirty oil (oil is US is much cleaner) whicjhjacked up fuel prices triggering inflation.

Sadly, his big push to eliminate gas fueled cars is also poorly planned out. We don't have the lithium needed to meet the Democrat ad Biden goals. We do not have the charging stations either.
https://insideevs.com/news/652195/ev-charging-stations-reliability-low/
EV Charging Stations In The US Are Plagued By Reliability Issues: Study
At least 1 in 5 charging attempts have failed last year.

The Biden push to appease the far left is overly aggressive. His energy policies depend on no issues with refineries, hardly a well thought out plan. So as gas prices rise again, it is Biden's lack of a vision in the near future adding costs at the pump.

You are saying the U.S. is not energy dependent right now?

I didn't realize that a huge U.S. supply gives us the power to control pricing, via supply and demand. That's world wide, right? 
Er wait. Who is "us"? The gov or those oil companies who want to keep prices down?

I thought Dem handouts triggered inflation? Could be both, I guess. 

Trump energy policies did NOT depend on "no issues with refineries." That didn't start until 2021.

[SunsetBengal]

Time to resume shale fracking. No matter the production levels, it will still encourage OPEC to increase production in order to keep the money flowing to them, and not other sources.

[KillerGoose]

(08-05-2023, 04:24 PM)Dill Wrote: You are saying the U.S. is not energy dependent right now?

I didn't realize that a huge U.S. supply gives us the power to control pricing, via supply and demand. That's world wide, right? 
Er wait. Who is "us"? The gov or those oil companies who want to keep prices down?

I thought Dem handouts triggered inflation? Could be both, I guess. 

Trump energy policies did NOT depend on "no issues with refineries." That didn't start until 2021.

He has been told this multiple times by multiple people. He doesn't engage any further, though. As a matter of fact, the U.S. is on track to produce the most oil in the history of the country, averaging 12.6 million bbls per day so far in 2023. Over the course of Biden's presidency, the U.S. has averaged 11.9 million bbls of crude each day. Under Trump, it was 10.9 million bbls per day.

Of course, you know what I am going to say...and that is neither Biden nor Trump control oil production. We weren't energy independent under Trump, and we won't be under Biden. It is likely that we will never be energy independent. 

[Stewy]

(08-05-2023, 03:07 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Port Arthur is the largest refinery in America, right?

There's more than one refinery in Port Arthur.  You're thinking of the Motiva Refinery 100% owned by Saudi Aramco.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Arthur_Refinery

[Stewy]

(08-05-2023, 03:03 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: My company used to do engineering and construction work in oil refineries before we sold off our Oil and Gas division (the projects were mostly small cap and relatively low dividend compared to pharmaceutical projects) and so I spent a lot of my 20s walking Oil refineries.

My boss at the time liked to ask me semi-open ended questions and one of the things he asked me one day was, "What is the most valuable resource when it comes to processing petroleum?"

I thought for a moment...Is it the crude? Maybe the equipment? The utilities for heating and cooling the processes? Or does he mean the operators and engineers as like a gotcha answer?

He said....time.

When a facility is running all day every day (with planned shutdowns/turnarounds only once a year at most and often times closer to 3 to 5 years), a pump being down for a day or a week or a month with no replacement or repair could cost the company millions of dollars that they will never make back, because that time is gone forever.

There is always more crude, there's always more equipment, people, electricity etc. But the time is fleeting. Every hour that you aren't refining oil is an hour that you will never get back.

I used this consideration whenever I designed anything in those refineries and actually convinced one client to install back up pumps on a few processes that would grind the entire refinery to a halt if the pump were to go down. More capital cost up front, but if that pump were down for even 1 full day, the ROI would be reached for springing for the back up pumps.

A lot of these refineries are old now (the one I did a lot of work in is over 125 years old at this point) so a lot of things are breaking down over time. You do your best to fit the work (especially preventative work to protect the most crucial equipment) into those turnaround windows but sometimes it just doesn't work out and planned work needs to be kicked to the next turnaround (which could be several years away). It's a shame when things like this occur because of how many things it impacts downstream. Hopefully, the ramifications aren't too bad.

They're so old because no local or federal govts want to provide permits for new ones.  Not in my back yard is always the mantra (same with new Nuclear Plants).  I don't think a new refinery has been built since the 70's.  Owners just keep expanding / fixing the old ones.  As a matter of fact one of the largest refineries in the country is shutting down in the next year or so because the owner wants to go more green and no one wants to buy it.  That's a huge amount of refining capacity we're losing and will never get back.

[Stewy]

To those trying to turn this into another radicalized polarizing political disucssion - go fuk yourselves (talking to 1-2 people).

I was just providing critical information about some dovetailing but related circumstances which will lead to temporary high gasoline prices. This is NOT political. It has nothing to do with politics. It's business. Period.

[KillerGoose]

(08-05-2023, 06:01 PM)Stewy Wrote: To those trying to turn this into another radicalized polarizing political disucssion - go fuk yourselves (talking to 1-2 people).

I was just providing critical information about some dovetailing but related circumstances which will lead to temporary high gasoline prices. This is NOT political. It has nothing to do with politics. It's business. Period.

You know, fair enough. I am not completely certain if I am in this group you are telling to fuk off but based on what I posted, I feel I am. I always enjoy your threads, so I apologize for keeping the political banter going. Thanks for the info, I was genuinely wondering why gas skyrocketed so quickly.