We're Officially In A Recession

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-29-2022, 12:03 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I mean, that also isn't anything new. When unemployment rates were on the rise we had people in office pointing to it and those opposed saying "yeah, but look at that other figure that isn't the official one but makes it look worse!" We've also always had administrations resist using the word until it was unavoidable, finding ways to skirt around it. Doesn't matter the party, they always try to. Did we ever hear the Trump administration admit to a recession during their time? It happened, but I don't recall ever hearing the administration say anything about it. It's not at all uncommon and trying to say otherwise is really just trying to make something out of nothing. But that is the common theme in American politics, so it is what it is.

Absolutely correct.  I guess some people just can't see it when "their guy" is in charge.

[Bengalzona]

I think the real question isn't the "r" word, it is the "h" word.... as in hardship. Are folks feeling hardship? They are. But right now, that is more from the "i" word (inflation). And slowing the economy with interest rate hikes is really about the only tool to stave off inflation at this point (which we really, really want to do). Inflation is happening due to imbalance between supply and demand. And there a lot of things going on that mean we are limited with what we can do to address supply issues. Hence, we have to go at from the demand side. Employment is the highest it has been in decades, which is one of the things fueling demand. If companies start throwing around the "L" word (layoffs), then the "r" word will become a more of an issue.

[*Nately120*]

Can't Biden just point out that corporate profits are way high and that it'll trickle down as long as people keep working hard?

[Stewy]

(07-29-2022, 10:19 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Funny. Earnings reports are being released yesterday and today for the biggest names in oil. Exxon Chevron, Shell, Totalenergies.

Record profits. I’m totally shocked. Actually I’m not.

Let's clear something up here about record earnings in the O&G sector.

#1 - As I hope I proved in several posts in the Oil and Oil Price threads, the major Oil companies have little to no control on oil prices.
#2 - The Price Crash of 2014 and the continued oil price volatility to this day had the Oil companies slashing investments.
-  No countries came to the Energy Industries rescue with subsidies or slashing royalties like the auto industry was bailed out.  
-  These for profit energy companies did what ANY corporate sector would do during a down turn, slashed investment and laid off workers of which I was one in 2015.
#3 - This economic driven lack of investment in finding new oil fields, has lead to long term production loss worldwide among the "for profit" portion of the oil industry.  And companies are still following the capital discipline implemented in 2014-2016.
#4 - TotalEnergies - I work for TTE and our worldwide exploration budget has been the same the last three years and project to NOT go up over the next 5 years.  
#5 - TTE is one of the staunchest investors in renewable energy worldwide, which is where all the extra money that we are not using for O&G exploration is going.  And these are just two recent examples:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-states-totalenergies-wins-maritime-lease-to-develop-a-3-gw-offshore-wind-farm-on-the-east-coast-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-301491485.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/totalenergies-wins-maritime-lease-to-develop-a-1-gw-offshore-wind-farm-off-north-carolinas-coast-301546953.html

I am sorry but people can't, have their cake and eat it too.  Who do people think are going to PAY for the Energy transition.  Not our govts'.  it will be the current Energy companies that move us to a renewable and EV future, because they have the money and capitol discipline to make it work.  it is so stupid how much people blame the O&G companies, when they're the ones who know how to find, produce and deliver energy.  But the ignorance of the masses think it can happen over night, which is a fallacy.  

Expecting immediate action, without thinking about the costs, consequences or having contingency plans is a luxury for profit corporations can literally not afford.  The best example is the UK last winter that put all their bets into wind energy without a contingency plan, they experienced  a "wind drought" and had to fire up coal fired plants again.  When what they should have done was converted their coal plants to natural Gas (90% cleaner), with subsidies and tax breaks to encourage investment in renewables.  Instead they are taxing O&G company profits, discouraging investment and hampering the Energy transition for political gain.

Bottom Line:  The Energy companies need their profits because they are the ones will pay for and make the Energy Transition actually happen (as they already are).  Leave it to our governments and the planet will burn.

[basballguy]

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-29-2022, 11:48 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Where you born yesterday?  The current POTUS has always, literally always, been blamed for the current state of the economy.  Sometimes it's fair, sometimes it isn't.  Biden and his team trying to redefine what a recession is doesn't speak well for him in this regard.

**** off.

My response was to his list . . . which was partially under Trump, but I guess that you are one of the idiots that will blame Biden for the lockdown . . . which was what he was referencing as part of the recession. And I never said we weren't in one, but go ahead and lump me in with shit I didn't say. It's your style to paint with a broad brush.

[*Nately120*]

(07-29-2022, 02:03 PM)basballguy Wrote:

Anyone who has spent time being brainwashed in high school or college knows wikipedia isn't a source to be academically cited. 

[basballguy]

(07-29-2022, 02:34 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Anyone who has spent time being brainwashed in high school or college knows wikipedia isn't a source to be academically cited. 

"academically cited" or not....it's what a good chunk of the population uses to learn things like "How is a recession defined?"

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-29-2022, 02:25 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: **** off.

As pithy and mature a response as expected.  

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-29-2022, 02:55 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: As pithy and mature a response as expected.  

Well you should expect it when you insult someone while taking their post out of context. But go ahead and play your typical "Mommy, he hit me back."

[*Nately120*]

(07-29-2022, 02:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: "academically cited" or not....it's what a good chunk of the population uses to learn things like "How is a recession defined?"

Yep, not too smart of us, is it?

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-29-2022, 03:01 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Well you should expect it when you insult someone while taking their post out of context. But go ahead and play your typical "Mommy, he hit me back."

Taking it out of context by directly responding to the whole quote?  Yeah, I can see why you had to resort to childish profanity.  Maybe that's the best you can do, dude?  Maybe it's time to come to terms with your limitations?

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-29-2022, 01:07 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: That's not going to stop idiots from blaming this 100% on Biden.

And Trump's pushback on the stimulus was because he wanted $2,000 instead of $1,400. 

Giving money to the working man puts that money right back into the economy. Giving tax cuts to the rich? They just throw it onto their pile in a bank and remove it from the economy. But I'm sure that has no repercussions, right?

(07-29-2022, 03:07 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Taking it out of context by directly responding to the whole quote?  Yeah, I can see why you had to resort to childish profanity.  Maybe that's the best you can do, dude?  Maybe it's time to come to terms with your limitations?

You quoted only the first line. I'd rather swear than be a liar. Aren't you some form of a cop? A lying cop. Tsk. Tsk. But if that's what have to do to prove your case . . . 

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-29-2022, 03:18 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: You quoted only the first line. I'd rather swear than be a liar. Aren't you some form of a cop? A lying cop. Tsk. Tsk. But if that's what have to do to prove your case . . . 

OK, my bad.  Can you please explain how the rest of the quote changes my point?

[BigPapaKain]

(07-29-2022, 03:18 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: You quoted only the first line. I'd rather swear than be a liar. Aren't you some form of a cop? A lying cop. Tsk. Tsk. But if that's what have to do to prove your case . . . 

That's what they're trained to do. Assuming they can't kill the perp first at least.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

An interesting blurb from Politico on the new Dem bill to fight inflation.

https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/07-29-2022/about-that-inflation-reduction/

[NATI BENGALS]

(07-29-2022, 01:02 PM)Stewy Wrote: Let's clear something up here about record earnings in the O&G sector.

#1 - As I hope I proved in several posts in the Oil and Oil Price threads, the major Oil companies have little to no control on oil prices.
#2 - The Price Crash of 2014 and the continued oil price volatility to this day had the Oil companies slashing investments.
-  No countries came to the Energy Industries rescue with subsidies or slashing royalties like the auto industry was bailed out.  
-  These for profit energy companies did what ANY corporate sector would do during a down turn, slashed investment and laid off workers of which I was one in 2015.
#3 - This economic driven lack of investment in finding new oil fields, has lead to long term production loss worldwide among the "for profit" portion of the oil industry.  And companies are still following the capital discipline implemented in 2014-2016.
#4 - TotalEnergies - I work for TTE and our worldwide exploration budget has been the same the last three years and project to NOT go up over the next 5 years.  
#5 - TTE is one of the staunchest investors in renewable energy worldwide, which is where all the extra money that we are not using for O&G exploration is going.  And these are just two recent examples:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-states-totalenergies-wins-maritime-lease-to-develop-a-3-gw-offshore-wind-farm-on-the-east-coast-of-new-york-and-new-jersey-301491485.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/totalenergies-wins-maritime-lease-to-develop-a-1-gw-offshore-wind-farm-off-north-carolinas-coast-301546953.html

I am sorry but people can't, have their cake and eat it too.  Who do people think are going to PAY for the Energy transition.  Not our govts'.  it will be the current Energy companies that move us to a renewable and EV future, because they have the money and capitol discipline to make it work.  it is so stupid how much people blame the O&G companies, when they're the ones who know how to find, produce and deliver energy.  But the ignorance of the masses think it can happen over night, which is a fallacy.  

Expecting immediate action, without thinking about the costs, consequences or having contingency plans is a luxury for profit corporations can literally not afford.  The best example is the UK last winter that put all their bets into wind energy without a contingency plan, they experienced  a "wind drought" and had to fire up coal fired plants again.  When what they should have done was converted their coal plants to natural Gas (90% cleaner), with subsidies and tax breaks to encourage investment in renewables.  Instead they are taxing O&G company profits, discouraging investment and hampering the Energy transition for political gain.

Bottom Line:  The Energy companies need their profits because they are the ones will pay for and make the Energy Transition actually happen (as they already are).  Leave it to our governments and the planet will burn.

I point to them when it comes to inflation because it all starts there, at least this time. They raise the price and make record profits and every piece of the supply chain gets more expensive and the consumer gets walloped. I’m not expecting immediate action. I’ve known pumping stuff out of the ground and burning it and dumping the waste into our atmosphere is bad for a long time. They have known longer than me.

And to me the timing doesn’t look accidental. Big oil lost money in 2020. Then a new prez takes over. One that didn’t name a big oil CEO as Secretary of State like Rex Tillerson. And like big powerful companies do they wield their power to get politicians helpful to their business back in power. Hence the price hikes.

[Belsnickel]

(07-29-2022, 05:18 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: An interesting blurb from Politico on the new Dem bill to fight inflation.

https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/07-29-2022/about-that-inflation-reduction/

I mean, fighting inflation is a difficult thing. It takes a delicate dance of fiscal and monetary policies that may or may not work if the population doesn't buy into it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the bill failed to rein it in. I mean, at least it is something that has a chance, unlike what the Fed is doing.

[grampahol]

Republicans have been terrified of Nancy Pelosi for decades. You know who else is terrified of her?  Republicans have to take the back seat to CHINA in the terrified of Nancy department. 
Just so you know it was  NO coincidence that al Zawahri was knocked off at about the same time Nancy was about to land in Taipei. 
That's a sphincter adjustment intended to send a STRONG MESSAGE to both Xi and the Putz ..Pucker up fellas. US military means business and you're on the shit list too.
Consider inflation now as your down payment on your future because all the jobs are about to leave China and retooling all the manufacturing plant on the North American continent ain't cheap. We're all paying for bringing it all home. 
Be happy kids. 
Joe Biden can take your flack, but this is happening on his watch, not the former guys.. 

[*Nately120*]

(08-02-2022, 10:12 PM)grampahol Wrote: Consider inflation now as your down payment on your future because all the jobs are about to leave China and retooling all the manufacturing plant on the North American continent ain't cheap. We're all paying for bringing it all home. 

But no one here wants to work, damn it!  We've already got too many jobs!  I'd put the ninja here, but meh....maybe I'm not being sarcastic.  Who wants to break your back to live paycheck to paycheck when you could starve equally well while trying to be the next tik tok star?