Week 4 Checkpoint - Analytics

[KillerGoose]

After San Francisco downed Los Angeles last night, we have officially closed the doors on week four and have completed roughly 25% of the season. The season is still fresh and early with plenty of football left to play, but what have we learned through the first four weeks? We're going to have a brief overview of that below, along with a final record prediction.

QB Efficiency




Following the first two weeks, there was not only genuine concern about the Bengals season, but concern about Burrow's play. Of course, there were explanations such as a new offensive line and his appendectomy. What if none of those were the answer, though? What if it was just a regression? 

Well, it still could be but Burrow has played fantastic since, alleviating much of the fanbases concern about his abilities. Joe has the league's second highest EPA per play in weeks three and four, behind only Geno Smith. It's not a coincidence that these weeks have also seen the Bengals' first two victories of the season - this team goes where Burrow takes them. Overall, the top-of-the-league passers have some familiar faces with Mahomes and Allen near the top, joined by Tua, Geno and Lamar. 

RB Efficiency 






The other half of the offense doesn't have as much good news. Joe Mixon currently ranks dead last in EPA per play and yards per carry among qualified running backs (min. 40 carries). There is a small silver lining, though. This isn't Joe's worst start in his career, as he struggled mightily in 2017 as he averaged only 2.61 yards per carry through week four. The counterpoint to that silver lining is that Joe didn't really recover very well that season, finishing with 3.52 yards per carry and 626 yards. While Mixon's production will always play second fiddle to Burrow's, having a respectable rush threat will help the offense move along as the season progresses. If Mixon can't get it going, someone else needs to and that could mean a reduction in carries for the Bengal fan favorite.  

Offensive Line Grades


 



These grades are my own, not PFF or any others. I calculated them using pressure percentage as aggregated by PFF, yards before contact and I use penalty percentage as a small modifier. The grades are weighted towards pass blocking and are normalized to fit a scale of 0-100. One note is that I am only using pressures that are attributed to the offensive line here, not Burrow inflicted. Cincinnati has had a very poor start to the season after spending over $70m on the offensive line this offseason. Last year, they ranked 32nd in this same ranking, only improving by four spots through the first four weeks. 

Team Efficiency





Buoyed by fantastic defensive performances, Cincinnati is sitting comfortably at 2-2 as they head for a showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. The defense has proven to be one of the leagues strongest units, though there are detractors who will point out that the unit has faced a backup QB in every game so far (Mitch who has now been demoted, Cooper, Flacco, Bridgewater). The offense, on the other hand, is lagging a bit behind league average but most importantly is trending upward. The lack of a running game is hamstringing them but Burrow & Co. have been carrying the offense to productive days. With Baltimore's defensive struggles, look for Cincinnati's pass game to hit home again. 


Final Record Prediction


No graph for this one. I am using the same method I did last year, which is a Pythagorean projection. Cincinnati is currently on pace for an 11-6 record. At this point last year, I had Cincinnati on pace for an 11-6 record as well. You can see that thread here.

[*bengalfan74*]

They have got to get the running game going IMO. GOT TO

[*PhilHos*]

(10-04-2022, 12:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: They have got to get the running game going IMO. GOT TO

Yep. Even if it's passing to set up the run, even if it's starting Perine and/or playing Evans more, but the run game MUST improve in order for us to have a chance at another Super Bowl appearance and SB victory once we make the playoffs.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

O/T, but how about Denver paying Russ all that money to lose, and Geno Smith playing decent enough at like 3 mil a year?

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-04-2022, 12:20 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Yep. Even if it's passing to set up the run, even if it's starting Perine and/or playing Evans more, but the run game MUST improve in order for us to have a chance at another Super Bowl appearance and SB victory once we make the playoffs.

Right

I'm not saying we have t go all 1975 three yards in a cloud of dust. However, we have to start getting some productive runs going. 7 yards, 12 yards, make the defense have to think about it. Be able to convert some 3rd and shorts.

[*psychdoctor*]

I guess if I had to choose between keeping. Joe Burrow upright or the Cincinnati Bengals having a good running game? I would choose the former. Also, I hear through others that Joe Mixon is tipping offense plays and if amateur film review critics can capture it. I don't see why the Cincinnati Bengals and all their talent cannot understand this and fix it.

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-04-2022, 12:32 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: I guess if I had to choose between keeping. Joe Burrow upright or the Cincinnati Bengals having a good running game? I would choose the former.  Also, I hear through others that Joe Mixon is tipping offense plays and if amateur film review critics can capture it. I don't see why the Cincinnati Bengals and all their talent cannot understand this and fix it.

Oh 100% we're going to win with Joe Burrow and the passing game !! But when you have basically nothing working in the running game it hurts, and HURTS BAD.

And I agree 100% if us amateurs can pinpoint problems why the hell can't the professional staff find it out waayyy before we do ? And why ain't it fixed ? 

[Nepa]

Thank you for these analytics. It certainly does objectively quantify what we've been seeing with our eyes: an abysmal Joe Mixon and a far-less-than-satisfactory offensive line.

[QueenCity]

We don't need Mixon to be great just average... but I think I'm done beating on Mixon this week. He's been getting killed rightfully let's see if he can turn the corner on Sunday.

[*Go Cards*]

definitely need the O-line and the running game to improve drastically

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-04-2022, 12:23 PM)Wyche Wrote: O/T, but how about Denver paying Russ all that money to lose, and Geno Smith playing decent enough at like 3 mil a year?

Geno Smith has been the biggest 'under the radar' story, to me, this year. Dude is completing almost 80% of his passes. 

[HarleyDog]

(10-04-2022, 12:00 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Joe Mixon currently ranks dead last in EPA per play and yards per carry among qualified running backs (min. 40 carries). 

Joe: Anybody got any of them holes I can ballet into?

[Murdock2420]

(10-04-2022, 05:29 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Joe: Anybody got any of them holes I can ballet into?

Wonder how long this will go on till the coaching staff starts to use more of a committee situation. Getting Perine and Evans more involved.

Look at KC with CEH, McKinnon and Pacheco. CEH wasn't getting it done but this season he is looking good while they are splitting up touches and keeping all 3 backs involved and with all 3 backs bringing something different to the offense. I think taking some carries or series away from Mixon might light a fire under him and get him more productive (at least it should). Of course if it doesn't and you get more production elsewhere, that is still a win.

[HarleyDog]

(10-04-2022, 05:39 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Wonder how long this will go on till the coaching staff starts to use more of a committee situation. Getting Perine and Evans more involved.

Look at KC with CEH, McKinnon and Pacheco. CEH wasn't getting it done but this season he is looking good while they are splitting up touches and keeping all 3 backs involved and with all 3 backs bringing something different to the offense. I think taking some carries or series away from Mixon might light a fire under him and get him more productive (at least it should). Of course if it doesn't and you get more production elsewhere, that is still a win.

This is a hellova idea. Competition throughout the season.

[*michaelsean*]

I thought Steelers line was supposed to be bad.

[*SHRacerX*]

So, in Summary....

Burrow is ascending to his normal self, despite a line that doesn't quite cut the mustard, yet.

The defense is outstanding, but there can be questions about the strength of the opponent, especially at the QB position.

Joe Mixon is the Baker Mayfield of RBs.

Did I miss anything?

Good stuff, Goose. Double rep +

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-04-2022, 12:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: They have got to get the running game going IMO. GOT TO

The quick start the past few weeks has been a lot of passing to TEs and even RBs.  Pass to open the run, not the prehistoric other way around.  As they (and mostly Burrow) find new ways to keep attacking two deep safeties, they will get more efficient, more points, and they should get more out of the running game.  But running in to a wall and hoping "the damn will break" is just stupid and a waste of a down.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-04-2022, 12:30 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Right

I'm not saying we have t go all 1975 three yards in a cloud of dust. However, we have to start getting some productive runs going. 7 yards, 12 yards, make the defense have to think about it. Be able to convert some 3rd and shorts.

I believe they have two runs over 10 yards through 4 games.  That is pathetic.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-04-2022, 05:39 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Wonder how long this will go on till the coaching staff starts to use more of a committee situation. Getting Perine and Evans more involved.

Look at KC with CEH, McKinnon and Pacheco. CEH wasn't getting it done but this season he is looking good while they are splitting up touches and keeping all 3 backs involved and with all 3 backs bringing something different to the offense. I think taking some carries or series away from Mixon might light a fire under him and get him more productive (at least it should). Of course if it doesn't and you get more production elsewhere, that is still a win.

Baltimore's defense is built with toughness, not speed.  Chris Evans has the speed to get outside when it is blocked up and is the best receiver of the three RBs.  He needs a series early in the game.  

[*bengalfan74*]

(10-05-2022, 08:29 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Baltimore's defense is built with toughness, not speed.  Chris Evans has the speed to get outside when it is blocked up and is the best receiver of the three RBs.  He needs a series early in the game.  

That's what I'm hoping, they start getting Perine and Evans more involved. Through four games Perine has 12 carries (the bulk of in Jets game) and Evans zero.