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Weekly Playoff Odds Thread
#21
(11-29-2022, 03:06 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Hate to say this but we need the steelers to beat the Ravens both times they play, or split  and the Browns to maybe beat them.

Hate pulling for these teams so will refrain from watching and just pull for the Bengals to take care of their own business and see where the chips fall.

I'm more than happy to pull for two Steelers wins, if it results in better things for the Bengals AND the Steelers screwing themselves out of better draft position!
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#22
The Bengals will represent the AFC in the SB again this year. There,, I said it.
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#23
(11-29-2022, 03:06 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Hate to say this but we need the steelers to beat the Ravens both times they play, or split  and the Browns to maybe beat them.

Hate pulling for these teams so will refrain from watching and just pull for the Bengals to take care of their own business and see where the chips fall.


Steelers and Ravens always play tough games. With Watt, Heyward, Highsmith, Fitzpatrick in the lineup, I could see the Steelers D giving Baltimore fits and winning one or even both of those games.

Browns also play Ravens pretty tight especially in Cleveland. Browns getting Watson at QB so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them beat Baltimore as well 


Cincy gotta take care of their own business of course (especially finally beating the stupid Browns), but I could see Ravens dropping 2 or even 3 division games. 
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#24
Not sure if it's been pointed out in here yet (I'm not reading all the posts lol), but there will be some help over the next few weeks for playoff seeding...

As long as the Bengals are in wildcard, they are primarily competing against the AFC East and Chargers.
Here are their schedules over the next few weeks:
Bills - Pats, Jets, Dolphins
Dolphins - 49ers, Chargers, Bills
Pats - Bills, Cards, Raiders
Jets - Vikings, Bills, Lions
Chargers - Raiders, Dolphins, Titans

We're guaranteed to see some losses for at least a couple of these teams over the next few weeks, which will help the Bengals with their playoff push.
Zac Taylor 2019-2020: 6 total wins
Zac Taylor 2021-2022: Double-digit wins each season, plus 5 postseason wins
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#25
(12-01-2022, 12:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Not sure if it's been pointed out in here yet (I'm not reading all the posts lol), but there will be some help over the next few weeks for playoff seeding...

As long as the Bengals are in wildcard, they are primarily competing against the AFC East and Chargers.
Here are their schedules over the next few weeks:
Bills - Pats, Jets, Dolphins
Dolphins - 49ers, Chargers, Bills
Pats - Bills, Cards, Raiders
Jets - Vikings, Bills, Lions
Chargers - Raiders, Dolphins, Titans

We're guaranteed to see some losses for at least a couple of these teams over the next few weeks, which will help the Bengals with their playoff push.

Yeah the AFC East is going to beat up on each other down the stretch. 
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#26
(11-29-2022, 01:26 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I highlighted the game that interests me most, because I think it's less clear-cut than the other four games (all with easy rooting interests). I think the Bengals' best benefit from this game depends entirely on their own performance against the Chiefs. If the Bengals win this week, then I would rather see the Patriots beat the Bills. In that scenario, we're looking much more closely at division winning prospects and thus higher playoff seeding (with the Bills and Chiefs both in the one seed race). If the Bengals lose this week, then I would prefer the Bills beat the Patriots to keep the Wild Card race kosher.

Unfortunately BUF @ NE is the Thursday Night game, so we won't have the benefit of knowing what's best when the game is being played.

Well said, I agree. We need to win and hopefully the Patriots win tonight. I picked them, they are at home, they know 
the Bills and they can run on them to take pressure off of Mac. Billy B should have his guys up for the task. I like our 
chances of beating the Chiefs Sunday too.
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#27
(12-01-2022, 03:07 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Well said, I agree. We need to win and hopefully that Patriots win tonight. I picked them, they are at home, they know 
the Bills and they can run on them to take pressure off of Mac. Billy B should have his guys up for the task. I like our 
chances of beating the Chiefs Sunday too.

This is my perspective as well. Playing at Buffalo in the playoffs is a tough row to hoe, so I generally root for them to be defeated. It's hard to see the Bengals gaining the upper hand over KC in terms of home field in the playoffs (given KC's easy schedule after the Bengals game), but Buffalo could be knocked from home field advantage.
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#28
(12-01-2022, 04:06 PM)Nepa Wrote: This is my perspective as well. Playing at Buffalo in the playoffs is a tough row to hoe, so I generally root for them to be defeated. It's hard to see the Bengals gaining the upper hand over KC in terms of home field in the playoffs (given KC's easy schedule after the Bengals game), but Buffalo could be knocked from home field advantage.

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#29
(12-01-2022, 12:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Not sure if it's been pointed out in here yet (I'm not reading all the posts lol), but there will be some help over the next few weeks for playoff seeding...

As long as the Bengals are in wildcard, they are primarily competing against the AFC East and Chargers.
Here are their schedules over the next few weeks:
Bills - Pats, Jets, Dolphins
Dolphins - 49ers, Chargers, Bills
Pats - Bills, Cards, Raiders
Jets - Vikings, Bills, Lions
Chargers - Raiders, Dolphins, Titans

We're guaranteed to see some losses for at least a couple of these teams over the next few weeks, which will help the Bengals with their playoff push.

Think it will be between the Bengals, Jets and the Chargers for the last wildcard spot, hope I'm wrong but think either the Bills or the Dolphins get one. 

We need the Chargers to choke and Bengals to outrun the Jets. Chargers don't have a real hard schedule to finish out with, but at least are a game behind us presently. Got lucky last week against Az which would have been nice had they fell 2 back.  

 The Pats got the Bills (twice), Bengals, and Dolphins with AZ and Raiders sprinkled in and don't think they can run that gauntlet and still be in the hunt. 

Unless of course the Ravens blow up down the stretch and Bengals win the division, which would be even sweeter and still possible. 
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#30
(12-01-2022, 07:59 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Think it will be between the Bengals, Jets and the Chargers for the last wildcard spot, hope I'm wrong but think either the Bills or the Dolphins get one. 

We need the Chargers to choke and Bengals to outrun the Jets. Chargers don't have a real hard schedule to finish out with, but at least are a game behind us presently. Got lucky last week against Az which would have been nice had they fell 2 back.  

 The Pats got the Bills (twice), Bengals, and Dolphins with AZ and Raiders sprinkled in and don't think they can run that gauntlet and still be in the hunt. 

Unless of course the Ravens blow up down the stretch and Bengals win the division, which would be even sweeter and still possible. 

Bengals still control their own destiny. Sure the Bengals upcoming games are much more challenging on paper than the Raven's schedule, but the Division is still what I'm fixated on. 
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#31
(12-01-2022, 03:07 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Well said, I agree. We need to win and hopefully the Patriots win tonight. I picked them, they are at home, they know 
the Bills and they can run on them to take pressure off of Mac. Billy B should have his guys up for the task. I like our 
chances of beating the Chiefs Sunday too.

(12-01-2022, 04:06 PM)Nepa Wrote: This is my perspective as well. Playing at Buffalo in the playoffs is a tough row to hoe, so I generally root for them to be defeated. It's hard to see the Bengals gaining the upper hand over KC in terms of home field in the playoffs (given KC's easy schedule after the Bengals game), but Buffalo could be knocked from home field advantage.

No thanks. I'll take a Bills win. The Bengals just need to beat them and match their record to be ahead of them. Knock the pats further back then beat them in NE then beat Buff at home. 





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#32
(12-02-2022, 12:00 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: No thanks. I'll take a Bills win. The Bengals just need to beat them and match their record to be ahead of them. Knock the pats further back then beat them in NE then beat Buff at home. 

Well, you got what you wanted, it's all good, like you said we just need to beat the Bills. Think we can, but for now just 
need to take care of our bidness and take down those Chiefs.
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#33
Our odds to make the playoffs jumped to 90% and the odds to win the division now sit at 45%. The odds at the 1 seed and a first round bye sit at 10%. This is now in play.

If we beat Cleveland the overall playoff odds rise to 97% and we are now favored to win the division at 57%. It's getting real people.

Games of note this week:

Ravens @Steelers
Chiefs @Denver
Jets @Bills
Dolphins @Chargers



Who I want to win is bolded. At this point in time, I am thinking we want to start zeroing in on the 1 seed and would want the Jets to beat the Bills and the Dolphins to beat the Chargers.
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#34
(12-05-2022, 11:10 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Our odds to make the playoffs jumped to 90% and the odds to win the division now sit at 45%. The odds at the 1 seed and a first round bye sit at 10%. This is now in play.

If we beat Cleveland the overall playoff odds rise to 97% and we are now favored to win the division at 57%. It's getting real people.

Games of note this week:

Ravens @Steelers
Chiefs @Denver
Jets @Bills
Dolphins @Chargers


Who I want to win is bolded. At this point in time, I am thinking we want to start zeroing in on the 1 seed and would want the Jets to beat the Bills and the Dolphins to beat the Chargers.

If we want the 1 seed, shouldn't we be hoping for the Chargers to win?
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#35
(12-05-2022, 11:22 AM)PhilHos Wrote: If we want the 1 seed, shouldn't we be hoping for the Chargers to win?

That's what I was thinking. We need the Chiefs/Bills/Dolphins/Ravens to all lose as much as possible the rest of the way. 

Unfortunately, the Chiefs schedule is super easy the rest of the way, and we will need them to drop at least one game and us to win out. Not impossible obviously, but we do need help to get the 1 seed. 
It's easy to see the world in black and white. Grey? I don't know what to do with grey.

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#36
(12-05-2022, 11:22 AM)PhilHos Wrote: If we want the 1 seed, shouldn't we be hoping for the Chargers to win?

Yeah I edited it - highlighted the wrong one. 
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#37
Boy have we come a long way...

Our odds to make the playoffs jumped to 98% and the odds to win the division now sit at 39%. The odds at the 1 seed and a first round bye sit at 9%.

If we beat the Bucs the overall playoff odds rise to > 99% and we are now favored to win the division at 51%.

Games of note this week:

Bills vs. Dolphins
Chiefs @Texans
Ravens @Browns
Jets vs. Lions


Who I want to win is bolded. I honestly am not sure who I want to win between the Bills and Dolphins. If we win this week, I'd prob say the Dolphins, but if we lose...then the Bills. The 1 seed is still at play but it's not super likely at this point. I feel like now we want to just position ourselves to get the five seed with how dumb the NFL playoff format is.

IMO home games and seeding should be based on overall record. It kind of bothers me we will have to go play in TN (again) even though we beat them are we are most likely going to have a better record.
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#38
(12-12-2022, 10:58 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Boy have we come a long way...

Our odds to make the playoffs jumped to 98% and the odds to win the division now sit at 39%. The odds at the 1 seed and a first round bye sit at 9%.

If we beat the Bucs the overall playoff odds rise to > 99% and we are now favored to win the division at 51%.

Games of note this week:

Bills vs. Dolphins
Chiefs @Texans
Ravens @Browns
Jets vs. Lions


Who I want to win is bolded. I honestly am not sure who I want to win between the Bills and Dolphins. If we win this week, I'd prob say the Dolphins, but if we lose...then the Bills. The 1 seed is still at play but it's not super likely at this point. I feel like now we want to just position ourselves to get the five seed with how dumb the NFL playoff format is.

IMO home games and seeding should be based on overall record. It kind of bothers me we will have to go play in TN (again) even though we beat them are we are most likely going to have a better record.

While I do think that winning the division should give that team HF advantage, it should NOT if division-winning team (insert Titans) loses a regular season game to a WC team they have to play with either an identical/better record (Bengals). Head-head simply has to mean something.
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#39
We can actually lock up a playoff spot this week... lots of things need to happen.

Bengals > Tampa
Bills > Miami
Arizona > Patriots
Titans > Chargers
Browns > Ravens
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#40
The Bengals have just got to keep taking care of their own business and it will all work itself out.

Plus we still play the Ravens
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