What's up with Yemen?

[Bengalzona]

The year was 2011, the year of the “Arab Spring”. Six countries had major uprisings (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen) while about a dozen others had significant demonstrations. Tunisia threw out Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (I wish these dudes had shorter names) and set up a parliamentary republic. Libya overthrew Ghaddafi (we used to call him Khaddafi back in the 80’s, but whatever, eh). Egypt overthrew Mubarak, then decided Morsi sucked and overthrew him. The Bahrain revolts were quickly stamped out by the GCC (Cooperative Council for the Arab Gulf States…. “No Arab Spring for you, Bahrain!!!”). Syria had a civil war, but that is pretty much over now (because the Russians told us to go away and we do what they say).

So that leaves Yemen, where their motto is “Allāh, al-Waṭan, ath-Thawrah, al-Waḥdah” (“God, Country, Revolution, Unity”). You know, you sort of have to wonder up front when they have ‘revolution’ in their national motto, eh.

Yemen is a small country bordered by Saudi Arabia to the north, Oman to the east, The Gulf of Aden to south and the Red Sea to the west. It has the distinction of being the poorest nation in the Middle East. Yemen is another one of those places in the Middle East where the Brits took over after World War I, drew some arbitrary lines on a map to show boundaries, and then took off some 50 years later complaining about how “these Arabs are so damned troublesome” (apparently, their Lawrence of Arabia cred had long since wore off).

During much of the time when I was young, Yemen was divided into two states: North Yemen (a.k.a. Yemen Arab Republic) and South Yemen (sometimes referred to as “Aden” in the dated maps I used to read as a boy). In 1990, the two states got together and decided to become a single state: the Republic of Yemen. Yay! What could possibly go wrong?

Now, I should probably mention that the concepts of ‘country’ or ‘nation’ are relative notions depending upon where you live in the world. In the West, we have a good notion of what we want the terms to mean. In places like Afghanistan, Somalia and Yemen, they have a more open definition. Basically, whatever tribal, regional, religious or political area within the ‘country’ you happen to be travelling in is the de facto actual government. There’s a fancy term for this: collective governance.

Now, as unlikely as it sounds, the newly combined nation actually survived and did okay (by their standards) for 21 years. I mean, if you get past the central government’s corruption, rampant poverty, unemployment, etc. Oh, and the ongoing Shia Insurgency (Yemen has a large Shi’ite population known as the Houthis). The Yemeni’s were willing to put up with those to some degree. But when their President Saleh decided he should be president for life, that was not okay. Demonstrations started. Saleh offered an alternative: his son could take over as president. Surprisingly enough, that was not received well. The government broke down. The Houthis stepped in. Saudi Arabia got mad about the Houthis stepping in because they are Shi’ites and not Sunnis and, therefore, should either be dead or slaves. So, the Saudi’s decided to put together a non-U.N. endorsed coalition of Arab buddies to support a rival Sunni group: the Hadi’s.

Now we have Shi’ite Houthi’s fighting Saudi-supported Sunni Hadi’s. Normally we in the U.S. wouldn’t care about any of this. But in 2009, an old friend of ours moved into this neighborhood: al Qaeda. The Saudi and Yemeni branches got together and decided to create Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. They moved out into the wilds of eastern Yemen. Not to be outdone, the Islamic State (ISIL) decided this would be a good place for them to move as well. Something about these areas of collective governance tends to draw extremist groups like flies to crap. Naturally, we needed to monitor this situation and fling drone attacks at them. Plus, these were our rich buddies, the Saudi’s. There was money to be made here! So, we started providing the Saudis intel and arms support.

But a funny thing happened. Some of the arms that we sent to the Saudis to be used by the Hadis were turning up in Syria being used by ISIL against our own troops. Also, ISIL and al Qaeda started attacking Houthis positions, but not Hadi positions. Strange, eh?

Interestingly enough, the Saudi-led attacks made only limited headway, despite some of the best intel and Western weapons money can buy. It seems that, unless they are fighting unarmed peasants, the Saudi military isn’t all that effective. In 2015, they decided to stop military operations and began to seek ‘peaceful’ diplomatic efforts. These diplomatic efforts included a complete sea, air and land blockade of Yemen (including food and humanitarian aid). This blockade has caused mass starvation in the country in addition to a cholera epidemic. In 2016, President Trump decided that blockading a group of people into starvation was a pretty cool idea and committed U.S. forces to the blockade.

[*michaelsean*]

If I had a nickel for every time someone asked me that.

I have no clue, but I learned something. Oh and they chew this stuff called ghat I think. Gets ‘em high.

[Benton]

Nothing is up with my Yemen. I mean, it's smelling a little different, but I'm trying to juice in the morning.

Why, what have you heard?

[Bengalzona]

(02-19-2019, 08:33 AM)michaelsean Wrote: If I had a nickel for every time someone asked me that.

I have no clue, but I learned something. Oh and they chew this stuff called ghat I think. Gets ‘em high.

Ghat outta here! (yuck, yuck, yuck!)

[Bengalzona]

(02-19-2019, 10:27 AM)Benton Wrote: Nothing is up with my Yemen. I mean, it's smelling a little different, but I'm trying to juice in the morning.

Why, what have you heard?

I heard your Yemen broke!

[fredtoast]

As a country Yemen was way too poor to afford all the bombs and bullets needed to turn their country into a bloody wasteland. But with the Saudi coalition bankrolling the Hadis and Iran supporting the Houthis they were able to pull it off.

And now in addition to starving from the blockade there is also one of the worst Cholera epidemics in history with very little medication available.

It is a complete nightmare. Obama was the one that got us involved in the first place but Trump has helped crank it up into a true humanitarian crisis.

[*michaelsean*]

Again I just have to be very simplistic and say Get the hell out now. The oil will always be for sale.

[Dill]

(02-19-2019, 06:54 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Interestingly enough, the Saudi-led attacks made only limited headway, despite some of the best intel and Western weapons money can buy. It seems that, unless they are fighting unarmed peasants, the Saudi military isn’t all that effective.

Well, we have to grant the Saudi's are very effective in fighting unarmed peasants. Remember the 40 children killed when they took out that school bus last August.   What you call "limited headway" is only against armed groups. LOL

(02-19-2019, 06:54 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Something about these areas of collective governance tends to draw extremist groups like flies to crap. Naturally, we needed to monitor this situation and fling drone attacks at them. Plus, these were our rich buddies, the Saudi’s. There was money to be made here! So, we started providing the Saudis intel and arms support.

But a funny thing happened. Some of the arms that we sent to the Saudis to be used by the Hadis were turning up in Syria being used by ISIL against our own troops. Also, ISIL and al Qaeda started attacking Houthis positions, but not Hadi positions. Strange, eh?

You could argue that the US had a national interest in Yemen over the last decade--to prevent it from becoming a broken state and new haven for Al Qaeda. Also U.S. citizen Anwar Al Awlaki was there fomenting domestic terrorism in the U.S.

But you have flagged something VERY interesting here -- those U.S. weapons shipped to Yemen turning up in Syria.

They didn't walk there.

If US weapons are going to Sunni in Yemen who are sharing them with relatives in AQY and/or they are often recoverable by ISIS or--a new precedent--ISIS is deploying forces in coordination with our "ally" SA, and receiving weapons from them, that's some pretty big news.

I guess there are myriad ways U.S. weapons could be drifting into Syria, so the question I have regards quantity. Are we talking about a few random M-4s picked up on the battlefield, or dozens or hundreds which arrived in unopened crates? That would mean complicity of at least some governments.

[Dill]

(02-19-2019, 06:54 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Now, as unlikely as it sounds, the newly combined nation actually survived and did okay (by their standards) for 21 years. I mean, if you get past the central government’s corruption, rampant poverty, unemployment, etc. Oh, and the ongoing Shia Insurgency (Yemen has a large Shi’ite population known as the Houthis). The Yemeni’s were willing to put up with those to some degree. But when their President Saleh decided he should be president for life, that was not okay. Demonstrations started. Saleh offered an alternative: his son could take over as president. Surprisingly enough, that was not received well. The government broke down. The Houthis stepped in. Saudi Arabia got mad about the Houthis stepping in because they are Shi’ites and not Sunnis and, therefore, should either be dead or slaves. So, the Saudi’s decided to put together a non-U.N. endorsed coalition of Arab buddies to support a rival Sunni group: the Hadi’s. [sunni and tribal support for president Hadi]

Now we have Shi’ite Houthi’s fighting Saudi-supported Sunni Hadi’s. Normally we in the U.S. wouldn’t care about any of this. But in 2009, an old friend of ours moved into this neighborhood: al Qaeda. The Saudi and Yemeni branches got together and decided to create Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. They moved out into the wilds of eastern Yemen. Not to be outdone, the Islamic State (ISIL) decided this would be a good place for them to move as well. Something about these areas of collective governance tends to draw extremist groups like flies to crap. Naturally, we needed to monitor this situation and fling drone attacks at them. Plus, these were our rich buddies, the Saudi’s. There was money to be made here! So, we started providing the Saudis intel and arms support.

Ha ha, good work B-zona.  I would only add you forgot one "important" player here.  Houthi=Shia=support from what Shia nation which is SA's biggest counterweight in the region?  I put "important" in quotation marks because I think their material support is rather minimal. But WHO they are blows that support up big in the Saudi perspective, and is probably one of the primary reasons why Trump/Bolton are redefining US policy goals upward in the region.

Also, AQ was "in" Yemen before 2009 (remember the U.S.S. Cole), though it didn't have territory yet.  

The coalition of buddies includes Egypt (at least for the blockade) which got a serious bloody nose in North Yemen back in 60s when they stuck in 70,000 troops to oppose a Saudi-backed coalition there. ("Nasser's Vietnam" ME historians call it.)  Not sure why Egypt would help out now. Quelling the civil war is certainly in their national interest, but not necessarily in favor of Saudi Arabia.  Maybe there is an aid quid pro quo here.

NB: I read somewhere recently that Pakistan was now sending aid to Saudi/Hadi forces too. Haven't found the link though. Going to mention it anyway!

[Dill]

(02-20-2019, 11:31 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Again I just have to be very simplistic and say Get the hell out now.  The oil will always be for sale.

If millions are starving and cholera is spreading, the state utterly collapses, and 5-10 million refugees are thrown beyond the borders of Yemen, we won't be thinking much about the oil.  

[*michaelsean*]

(02-20-2019, 03:04 PM)Dill Wrote: If millions are starving and cholera is spreading, the state utterly collapses, and 5-10 million refugees are thrown beyond the borders of Yemen, we won't be thinking much about the oil.  

From what I can tell they are starving in part due to us being there.  When I say get out, I mean the whole ME.  Let them do what they will, and we can buy our oil from whomever comes out on top.

[Dill]

(02-20-2019, 03:06 PM)michaelsean Wrote: From what I can tell they are starving in part due to us being there.  When I say get out, I mean the whole ME.  Let them do what they will, and we can buy our oil from whomever comes out on top.

We could probably end that blockade today and start dispersing UN relief trucks from Aden and Sa'naa by 7 pm tonight, if we chose to. Medical relief included.

A collapsing Yemen is already a world problem, becoming ever more massive. A collapsing Middle East would be the doorstep to WWIII.

 

[Bengalzona]

(02-20-2019, 02:59 PM)Dill Wrote: You could argue that the US had a national interest in Yemen over the last decade--to prevent it from becoming a broken state and new haven for Al Qaeda. Also U.S. citizen Anwar Al Awlaki was there fomenting domestic terrorism in the U.S.

Prior to the Civil War, Yemen was one of our partners in the War Against Terror according to the Bush admin. They were very helpful in helping us find targets (who were conveniently in their backyard) during 'drone hunting' season.

Quote:But you have flagged something VERY interesting here -- those U.S. weapons shipped to Yemen turning up in Syria.


They didn't walk there.

If US weapons are going to Sunni in Yemen who are sharing them with relatives in AQY and/or they are often recoverable by ISIS or--a new precedent--ISIS is deploying forces in coordination with our "ally" SA, and receiving weapons from them, that's some pretty big news.

I guess there are myriad ways U.S. weapons could be drifting into Syria, so the question I have regards quantity. Are we talking about a few random M-4s picked up on the battlefield, or dozens or hundreds which arrived in unopened crates? That would mean complicity of at least some governments.

Yes. ISIL is well known for their battlefield scroungery. About 1/3 of the weapons we captured/recaptured from them were supplied to Middle East countries from Western nations, mostly from us. Fortunately (or unfortunately for some) they were easily traceable through their serial numbers (even Russian-designed weapons we had specially made for export in East Europe and stuck our serial numbers on them). Most were captured from the Iraqis when their patented tactic of throwing away all their weapons and fleeing from the 'mean guys' failed to impress ISIL. These included just about everything you could name, including M-1 tanks. Other weapons were either seized or were given to ISIL by Syrian rebel groups in Syria. These ranged from AK's to anti-tank rockets.

The group of weapons I'm talking about are stuff we sent to our Saudi buddies for use against Houthi rebels in Yemen. They include small arms, but also aerial bombs and rockets. To be sure, it was a small amount of the overall packages we sent to the Saudis. So, it doesn't appear to a be a Saudi government operation. More likely, independent Saudi commanders with a strong Wahhabi bent.

[Bengalzona]

(02-20-2019, 03:00 PM)Dill Wrote: Ha ha, good work B-zona.  I would only add you forgot one "important" player here.  Houthi=Shia=support from what Shia nation which is SA's biggest counterweight in the region?  I put "important" in quotation marks because I think their material support is rather minimal. But WHO they are blows that support up big in the Saudi perspective, and is probably one of the primary reasons why Trump/Bolton are redefining US policy goals upward in the region.

Also, AQ was "in" Yemen before 2009 (remember the U.S.S. Cole), though it didn't have territory yet.  

The coalition of buddies includes Egypt (at least for the blockade) which got a serious bloody nose in North Yemen back in 60s when they stuck in 70,000 troops to oppose a Saudi-backed coalition there. ("Nasser's Vietnam" ME historians call it.)  Not sure why Egypt would help out now. Quelling the civil war is certainly in their national interest, but not necessarily in favor of Saudi Arabia.  Maybe there is an aid quid pro quo here.

NB: I read somewhere recently that Pakistan was now sending aid to Saudi/Hadi forces too.  Haven't found the link though.  Going to mention it anyway!

Well, I did mention how "they are Shi’ites and not Sunnis and, therefore, should either be dead or slaves", per the Saudis.

Got a puzzler for ya: Whaddya get when you combine secret U.S. nuclear technology slipped to Saudi Arabia without Congressional approval with existing Pakistani centrifuges?

Give up?


Ta da!!! Instant Saudi nukes!!!

(I'll give partial credit if you said wealthier Trumps)

[Dill]

(02-20-2019, 06:11 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: The group of weapons I'm talking about are stuff we sent to our Saudi buddies for use against Houthi rebels in Yemen. They include small arms, but also aerial bombs and rockets. To be sure, it was a small amount of the overall packages we sent to the Saudis. So, it doesn't appear to a be a Saudi government operation. More likely, independent Saudi commanders with a strong Wahhabi bent.

Can you tell what your source is?

Also, are you saying the bombs and rockets are turning up in Syria?  I am guessing they would have to be captured--by Americans?

[Bengalzona]

(02-21-2019, 08:56 PM)Dill Wrote: Can you tell what your source is?

Also, are you saying the bombs and rockets are turning up in Syria?  I am guessing they would have to be captured--by Americans?

"If I told you, I'd have to kill you."

LOL!

Here is one source:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/nov/28/arms-yemen-militia-were-supplied-by-west-find-analysts

I know there are several other sources, but I'm too lazy to look them up right now.

Not sure that the Guardian goes into details on some of the weapons (and, again, too lazy to reread). Rockets were the RPG-7/RPG-18 type contracted by the U.S. and built in East Europe. Bombs were various aerial munitions built for Western aircraft. ISIL rigged them for use as IED's. There was some concern about handheld surface-to-air missilesbeing 'lost'. I doubt it because they try to watch those closely. Then again, Trump Admin....

[Dill]

(02-21-2019, 10:12 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: "If I told you, I'd have to kill you."

LOL!

Here is one source:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/nov/28/arms-yemen-militia-were-supplied-by-west-find-analysts

I know there are several other sources, but I'm too lazy to look them up right now.

Not sure that the Guardian goes into details on some of the weapons (and, again, too lazy to reread). Rockets were the RPG-7/RPG-18 type contracted by the U.S. and built in East Europe. Bombs were various aerial munitions built for Western aircraft. ISIL rigged them for use as IED's. There was some concern about handheld surface-to-air missilesbeing 'lost'. I doubt it because they try to watch those closely. Then again, Trump Admin....

Wow, that's an interesting article. 

“Where we found abuse of the end user certification system, we sought explanations from the arms companies and government who authorised the sales to the coalition. Many simply turn a blind eye,” said Abo-Elgheit.

Jeezus--Canadian Armoured vehicles, German sniper rifles, US MRAPs. 

This article doesn't track anything to Syria, but it looks like the Saudi military is very porous.

[Bengalzona]

(02-22-2019, 12:16 AM)Dill Wrote: Wow, that's an interesting article. 

“Where we found abuse of the end user certification system, we sought explanations from the arms companies and government who authorised the sales to the coalition. Many simply turn a blind eye,” said Abo-Elgheit.

Jeezus--Canadian Armoured vehicles, German sniper rifles, US MRAPs. 

This article doesn't track anything to Syria, but it looks like the Saudi military is very porous.

I don't think it is a Saudi government policy. They don't seem to care. Judging from the types of equipment, this would be division and brigade level commanders making their own decisions out in the field. And some of those decisions may be influenced by Sunni fundamentalist idealism. It is a problem within the Saudi military and government.

[Dill]

(02-22-2019, 12:32 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I don't think it is a Saudi government policy. They don't seem to care. Judging from the types of equipment, this would be division and brigade level commanders making their own decisions out in the field. And some of those decisions may be influenced by Sunni fundamentalist idealism. It is a problem within the Saudi military and government.

Yes, and then their "friends" (lol the "friends" of our "friends"), shift sides. 

So the weapons don't go to the Houthi, but they do sift into AQ and ISIS units--not our "friends," but friends of their "friends."

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/02/middleeast/yemen-lost-us-arms/

Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in Yemen, in violation of their agreements with the United States, a CNN investigation has found.

The weapons have also made their way into the hands of Iranian-backed rebels battling the coalition for control of the country, exposing some of America's sensitive military technology to Tehran and potentially endangering the lives of US troops in other conflict zones.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, its main partner in the war, have used the US-manufactured weapons as a form of currency to buy the loyalties of militias or tribes, bolster chosen armed actors, and influence the complex political landscape, according to local commanders on the ground and analysts who spoke to CNN.

By handing off this military equipment to third parties, the Saudi-led coalition is breaking the terms of its arms sales with the US, according to the Department of Defense. After CNN presented its findings, a US defense official confirmed there was an ongoing investigation into the issue.

The revelations raise fresh questions about whether the US has lost control over a key ally presiding over one of the most horrific wars of the past decade, and whether Saudi Arabia is responsible enough to be allowed to continue buying the sophisticated arms and fighting hardware.  Previous CNN investigations established that US-made weapons were used in a series of deadly Saudi coalition attacks that killed dozens of civilians, many of them children.

Wait! maybe I spoke too soon!

In September 2017, a Houthi-run TV channel broadcast images of Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, the de facto rebel leader, proudly sitting behind the wheel of a captured US-made MRAP in the capital Sanaa, as a crowd chanted "death to America" in the background.

[fredtoast]

Opposing international powers fighting a religious war by proxy in an impoverished middle eastern country.


How could that possibly have any bad repercussions down the road?