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Who are your 2020 Reds Breakout player, Comeback player and Top 2 Newcomers?
#1
Breakout . . . best year so far for a player with less than 4 or 5 years in the bigs.
Comeback . . . post injury or post bad season by their standards-Votto rule.
Newcomer . . . Miley - Castellanos - Moustakas - Akiyama - DeLeon - Strop - Jankowski

Here's an awesome website that can help you look at the roster and it has has lots of info . . . includes minor leaguers you should know listed by position with uniform numbers for the spring training invitees. The accuracy of their depth chart can be debated but it's a fun read/scan.

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My picks
Breakout - Cody Reed
Comeback - Iglesias
Newcomers - Miley and Akiyama
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#2
It's going to be real interesting to see what Akiyama does in the big leagues. It's my hope he can hit big league pitching just fine and carry a decent batting average all season. I have full faith he'll be just fine defensively. If he can hit anywhere around .280 or above and sustain it all season someone else will be out of a job or traded away before the ASG. I'm thinking a bullpen arm, but maybe another position like SS if it becomes available..
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#3
Breakout: Senzel yes I know the trade rumors and I'll be pretty surprised if an outfielder or two isn't traded before season is over.

Comeback: Iglesias we really need it to be

2 Newcomers: Akiyama and Moustakas
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#4
Akiyama is a little over rated around here. He was a good player in Japan, but not a superstar. And the Japanese league is not as good as US major leagues. PLus he is 32 and probably on his decline.

Breakout..... Senzel
Comeback..... Iglasias (could have bigger impact on improving team than any player we signed or traded for)
Newcomer..... Miley or Moustakas.


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#5
Dietrich and his diet batting average is back on a minors contract. Despite his 18 HRs early on he only hit .071 the second half, but did require shoulder surgery in September. it's pretty well known now his big decline was due to the injury. How he fares this season is anyone's guess, but if he could somehow belt out another 18 plus HRs wouldn't hurt the club. They very likely won't rely on his BA if he even makes the club again.
If Akiyama puts up similar numbers as he did in Japan he'll be a boon to the club. if not then it's a defensive replacement situation. It's not AS IF 32 is considered to be an ancient age for ball players. You seem openly hostile to Akiyama Fred.. I hope he has a magical season.
Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow. Baseball is right around the corner. WOOHOO! ThumbsUp
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#6
Breakout: Galvis
Comeback: Votto
Top 2 Newbies: Shogo and Castellanos
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#7
(02-12-2020, 08:39 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Breakout: Galvis
Comeback: Votto
Top 2 Newbies: Shogo and Castellanos

I guess you forgot Moustakas. No problemo.. It's not easy to spell anyway. Heck, I don't even know if I spelled his name correctly.
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#8
(02-14-2020, 01:13 AM)grampahol Wrote: I guess you forgot Moustakas. No problemo.. It's not easy to spell anyway. Heck, I don't even know if I spelled his name correctly.

Not at all, I just don't think he'll be as impactful on the team as a new leadoff hitter and the second best bat on the team now, behind Suarez.
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#9
(02-14-2020, 10:54 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Not at all, I just don't think he'll be as impactful on the team as a new leadoff hitter and the second best bat on the team now, behind Suarez.



Castellanos is a better hitter than Moustakas.  I think Mike just gets more love because he is being penciled in at a position (2B) that generally does not generate as much offense as outfield where Castellanoes will be playing.


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#10
Breakout Player: Winker (LF)
Comeback Player: Bauer (SP)
Newcomer1: Pedro Strop (RP)
Newcomer2: Castellanos (RF)

I think The Punisher will be sent down due to options unless Reds make a trade. With Winker and Castellanos the defense will take a hit but the bats/SP will keep them in games. You do not have to worry about defense if the other team does not get clean contact on the ball. Gray, Cast, Bauer, and Miley have nasty stuff.

RP is a different story. But at that point, Bell can substitute Winker and Castellanos with better defensive OF.
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#11
Breakout: Shogo. No years in the bigs, so I guess he applies. I think he'll hit for high average and be a nice base-clogger for the power guys down the lineup. He's going to fill a void this team has needed for too long. I hope anyway.

Comeback: Joey. He'll have solid protection and less pressure this season.

Newcomer: Miley. Strong candidate for being another guy that Derek Johnson can turn into a better version of what he's been.
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#12
(02-14-2020, 10:54 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Not at all, I just don't think he'll be as impactful on the team as a new leadoff hitter and the second best bat on the team now, behind Suarez.

I have no idea how impactful he'll be either, but if he hits like he has his in the past he'll have more impact at 2nd than VanMeter and Dietrich did in the 2nd half.
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#13
I didn't pick Akiyama because of his bat. Winker started games in Center field last season.

Jesse Winker.

Started games in Center field.

Senzel made some plays but mostly looked out of his element and Lorenzen was probably the best defensive CF on the team. If Akiyama hits .265 and plays average defense, I'll take that over what Billy Hamilton gave us for 5 or so years. I'm still mystified that BH can't learn how to bunt. He'd be a HOFer.

I picked Miley because he's replacing 3-12 Mahle.
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#14
(02-14-2020, 10:54 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Not at all, I just don't think he'll be as impactful on the team as a new leadoff hitter and the second best bat on the team now, behind Suarez.

Wha..wait a minute..Did you just suggest Moustakas will be hitting leadoff behind Suarez? Meaning Suarez will be hitting 9th?  I must be reading this wrong or you just made a typing/brainfart error or something.. Shocked Only the 2nd best bat, hitting lead off behind Suarez.. Yup..sounds fishy to me. Tongue If that's the case it sounds impactful enough..2nd best and hitting lead off..moving Suarez to the pitchers spot in the order. I dunno what kind of impact that might be, but it's not nothing.
The thing that does feel over done is pretending his lifetime .252 BA is somehow mind bending like he'll suddenly become a .350 hitter. His OPS has ranged from poor to good, but never great and nobody will ever say his 182 career home runs will ever get him into the HOF. Only 2 seasons has he ever hit over 30 home runs. That's not nothing, but not worth the price they're paying IMO.. I think the most impressive hitting stat with Moustakas is his GO/AO ratio of 0.78. He doesn't ground out a lot.
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#15
(02-16-2020, 03:27 AM)grampahol Wrote: Wha..wait a minute..Did you just suggest Moustakas will be hitting leadoff behind Suarez? Meaning Suarez will be hitting 9th?  I must be reading this wrong or you just made a typing/brainfart error or something.. Shocked Only the 2nd best bat, hitting lead off behind Suarez.. Yup..sounds fishy to me. Tongue If that's the case it sounds impactful enough..2nd best and hitting lead off..moving Suarez to the pitchers spot in the order. I dunno what kind of impact that might be, but it's not nothing.
The thing that does feel over done is pretending his lifetime .252 BA is somehow mind bending like he'll suddenly become a .350 hitter. His OPS has ranged from poor to good, but never great and nobody will ever say his 182 career home runs will ever get him into the HOF. Only 2 seasons has he ever hit over 30 home runs. That's not nothing, but not worth the price they're paying IMO.. I think the most impressive hitting stat with Moustakas is his GO/AO ratio of 0.78. He doesn't ground out a lot.

No, I said the reason I picked Shogo and Castellanos as the best newcomers are because Shogo should be a legit leadoff hitter and Castellanos will be the second best bat on the team, behind only Suarez. I expect the lineup to look something like this:
1. Shogo
2. Senzel
3. Suarez
4. Castellanos
5. Votto
6. Moustakas
7. Galvis
8. Barnhardt
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#16
Glad you cleared that up. It were a tad confusing without the clear uppedness there.. ThumbsUp
Looking at this proposed lineup,
1. Shogo

2. Senzel
3. Suarez
4. Castellanos
5. Votto
6. Moustakas
7. Galvis
8. Barnhardt 
Looks good on the face of it, but I have a feeling the "braintrust" will keep Votto hitting in the 2 hole. I think, though not certain we'll see on opening day..
1. Akiyama
2. Votto
3. Castellanos
4. Suarez
5. Moustakas
6. Winker (LF)
7. Galvis
8. Barnhardt
This of course assumes Suarez is ready on day one. While he's a darn good power hitter he's not all that in OBP and lead the major leagues in strikeouts last year.. I think it's a mistake to have him hitting 1, 2 or 3. I'd much rather see him hitting CU. Having a guy who can hit 40-50 HRs makes sense to hit CU unless he also hits with a .300ish BA. That's my thinking anyway. I'm not wild about Castellanos playing RF. He just doesn't have the defensive chops..I'd rather see him in LF, but the braintrust may see things differently. I put zero stock in Bell telling us how much pride he takes in his defense. That's just Bell rattling on to hear his own head rattle.
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#17
From what I've seen, read and heard. Winker and Akiyama will be starters against Right Hand Pitchers with Ervin and Aquino available as pinch hitters. Then against LHP, it gets switched around . . . for the most part. I'm sure you'll see some games with Akiyama starting against a LHP and Aquino in against a RHP but Bell likes to keep a fluid lineup . . . too fluid for my tastes but it's what we're handed as fans. Hopefully he doesn't get in the way as much as he did last season.

My lineups . . . I like to mix up the Lefties and Righties. Suarez omitted.
Against a RHP
Shogo
Senzel
Votto
Castellanos
Moustakas
Winker
Galvis
Barnhart

Against a LHP
Senzel
Votto
Castellanos
Moustakas
Aquino
Ervin
Casali
Galvis

Just for keeping score up to this point
Breakout:
Senzel 2
Winker
Reed
Akiyama
Galvis

Comeback:
Iglesias 3
Votto 2
Bauer

Newcomers:
Akiyama 3
Miley 3
Castellanos 2
Moustakas 2
Strop
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#18
Breakout . . . Nick Senzel

This may be a bit of a low hanging fruit pick, because he was the No. 2 overall pick a few years back and was our star prospect going into 2019 but it just makes too much sense.

Senzel did not end the year with the greatest numbers on earth, ending the season at .256/.315/.427/.742. However,

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, Nick Senzel actually changed his swing late in the season last year on August 2nd. On that day, his line was .285/.345/.474/.819.
From that day forward, he hit .181/.239/.305/.544 in 115 PA.

Those 115 PAs dragged his average and OBP down almost 30 points and dragged his Slugging down almost 50 points. Now, there's no guarantee that had he not changed his swing, he would have stayed at the .285 clip for the final month and a half of the season (as he was injured late in the year), but that precipitous drop is undeniably linked to his change in swing. There's speculation that Turner Ward was fired because he screwed up Senzel's swing.

Now, Senzel is back in camp and swinging like he did before August 2nd and Senzel has commented that he has indeed reverted back to his previous swing.

I think this season we could reasonably expect him to reach .280/.350/.450 for a full season, with the potential for a .300/.400/.500 season out of him if he remains healthy. For a starting CF, those numbers would be incredible and undeniably constitute the term "break out year."

Comeback . . . Trevor Bauer

He played like shit for us, to the tune of a 1.35 WHIP and 6.39 ERA in 10 starts. Even if he reverts back to the pre-trade Trevor Bauer, with a 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA in 24 starts, that's still a marked improvement and would make him our third best starter behind Castillo and Gray. If he reverts back to his 2018 self, with a 1.09 WHIP and 2.21 ERA in 27 starts, then that would be incredible. Regardless of which metric he hits, he basically has nowhere to go but up.

Newcomer . . .  Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama

I love Moose and Akiyama, but both have a considerable risks.
Moose has never been an OBP guy and is playing out of position at 2B, which could cause us some defensive woes. His signing was a great sign of the change that the owners and coaches planned for the team, but he doesn't profile as a super star.

Akiyama could be amazing and has the potential to be a star lead off hitter, but he had a down year in 2019 (relative to 2017 and 2018), is turning 32 this year and is coming from another league and another country. Will his skills translate to the MLB? It's unclear. There have been a few poor transitions from Japanese players in the past decade and they don't throw nearly as hard in Japan, so whether or not Akiyama can keep up with the MLB fastball will be something to keep an eye on.

But Castellanos...that man is coming off his best (half) season in his career with the Chicago Cubs, led the major leagues in doubles and has generally been a extra base hit machine his entire career. He spent the majority of his career in Detroit, where home runs go to die, so the odds of him having a career year playing half his games in GABP are pretty good. In 52 games in Chicago, he hit .321/.356/.646/1.002. I don't expect him to replicate that, but even if he stays on his career line of .277/.326/.471/.797, which includes two very poor years in the beginning of his career, he would still be a massive upgrade to this team. If he falls in between those two lines, we have a legitimate star signing. In addition to all that, he's only turning 28 this year and is signed for 4 years (although he has opt out clauses after the first and second year, so I have a feeling he won't be a Red in 2022 and maybe not even 2021.) We're getting his prime years.
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#19
(02-16-2020, 03:12 PM)grampahol Wrote: Glad you cleared that up. It were a tad confusing without the clear uppedness there.. ThumbsUp
Looking at this proposed lineup,
1. Shogo

2. Senzel
3. Suarez
4. Castellanos
5. Votto
6. Moustakas
7. Galvis
8. Barnhardt 
Looks good on the face of it, but I have a feeling the "braintrust" will keep Votto hitting in the 2 hole. I think, though not certain we'll see on opening day..
1. Akiyama
2. Votto
3. Castellanos
4. Suarez
5. Moustakas
6. Winker (LF)
7. Galvis
8. Barnhardt
This of course assumes Suarez is ready on day one. While he's a darn good power hitter he's not all that in OBP and lead the major leagues in strikeouts last year.. I think it's a mistake to have him hitting 1, 2 or 3. I'd much rather see him hitting CU. Having a guy who can hit 40-50 HRs makes sense to hit CU unless he also hits with a .300ish BA. That's my thinking anyway. I'm not wild about Castellanos playing RF. He just doesn't have the defensive chops..I'd rather see him in LF, but the braintrust may see things differently. I put zero stock in Bell telling us how much pride he takes in his defense. That's just Bell rattling on to hear his own head rattle.

IF Votto can return to form, I’m fine with him hitting near the top of the order. Hopefully we’ll find out during ST if he still has it.

Just saw a picture of Moustakas at ST and he looks FAT. He defense was suspect before, he’s going to struggle fielding grounders when he can’t bend over.
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