Who could have imagined?

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

That crime is skyrocketing in Minneapolis?

https://www.startribune.com/staggering-surge-in-violent-carjackings-continues-citywide/573257391/

'Staggering' surge in violent carjackings continues across Minneapolis
Such attacks were up 537% compared with last November, worrying residents.


I don't know what kind of logical, rational thinking person could have imagined this. Now, I won't link this to the controversial "defund the police" slogan that we've all discussed in numerous ways. I will link this solely to one undeniable fact. When you demonize law enforcement and minimalize or excuse criminal conduct all you get is emboldened criminals. Having done my job for 20+ years I can tell you a few things with certainty. Most criminals are not what you'd consider classically intelligent. But many of them are experts at reading the wind and spotting weakness, whether that be individual or societal. In Los Angels there are plans to basically decriminalize the juvenile justice system (search Measure J). The street gangs have already laid plans to shift all heavy crimes, such as murder, to juvenile offenders. The current zeitgeist is a perfect storm of emboldening criminal behavior and your average citizen is going to pay the price for it.

[Vas Deferens]

I’d rekon the undeniable socio-economic gaps at play for decades play a role as well. But, let’s blame it on the poorly branded social reforms.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(12-02-2020, 03:15 AM)Vas Deferens Wrote: I’d rekon the undeniable socio-economic gaps at play for decades play a role as well.   But, let’s blame it on the poorly branded social reforms.

You reckon incorrectly, at least in explaining the facts of the article.  As the socio-economic gaps are nothing new and have existed since at least 1992.  This is around when crime started to drop, and did so annually, until recently.  So while economic status certainly contributes to, but does not excuse, criminal conduct, it absolutely does not explain the recent explosion of crime in major cities around the country.  You're a smart person, don't ignore the truth because it's uncomfortable to acknowledge.

[Vas Deferens]

(12-02-2020, 12:20 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You reckon incorrectly, at least in explaining the facts of the article.  As the socio-economic gaps are nothing new and have existed since at least 1992.  This is around when crime started to drop, and did so annually, until recently.  So while economic status certainly contributes to, but does not excuse, criminal conduct, it absolutely does not explain the recent explosion of crime in major cities around the country.  You're a smart person, don't ignore the truth because it's uncomfortable to acknowledge.

There’s nothing else happening currently that could be affecting lower income bands of the population? Hmm.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(12-02-2020, 12:52 PM)Vas Deferens Wrote: There’s nothing else happening currently that could be affecting lower income bands of the population?  Hmm.

Excellent question, let's examine that.  What has changed that could potentially cause such a huge spike in crime rates, not only in Minneapolis, but throughout the country?

Higher unemployment due to pandemic shutdowns?  I find this unlikely.  While lack of money can certainly drive criminal conduct it's very rare to find a person who used to hold down a steady job to make ends meet suddenly turn to violent crime to earn money.  Simply put, law abiding citizens don't generally turn into violent criminals because they are unemployed.

Quarantine lockdowns affecting the mental status of people?  More likely than above, but still not a likely determinant.  Statistics routinely show that most criminal activity is committed by a hard core of recidivists.  This data was precisely what led to the "three strikes" laws, and similar laws.  While the efficacy of such laws is certainly up for debate, the data that promoted their enaction is not.  So, again, I don't think a huge spike in criminals conduct can be attributed to this.

Shutdown of schools/community centers?  This would certainly help explain a rise in crime committed by juveniles, and absolutely does in the current environment.  Every person who works in the criminal justice field is aware that crime rates rise during the summer months.  This is, of course, partially due to the better weather enabling people to go outside.  But as this trend continues to show itself in areas such as Southern California, where the weather is very rarely a factor in this regard, it can also largely be attributed to young people having more free time on their hands.  This would absolutely help explain a rise in juvenile crime during the pandemic.  As we do not have data on the age of these perpetrators we can only speculate in this regard.  But what data we do have shows that juvenile crime is not the predominant driver of overall crime rates.

Lastly, and feel free to offer more explanations if you have them, is the current soft on crime/demonizing law enforcement movement that is predominant in deep blue areas of the country.  I have already explained my reasoning for why this would cause a spike in crime rates.  This is bolstered, anecdotally of course, by my own experiences and those of friends.  I have been told numerous times that "you guys can't do shit to us now".  My friends who are parole agents have been told absolutely no returns to prison for violations, no matter how numerous or severe, unless the parolee committed a new crime.  My friends who are probation officers have to jump through hoops to detain anyone on a violation, and permission is not often given at the end.  My friends who are in law enforcement are forced to cite and OR people they would otherwise have detained.  It will get even worse here now that Jackie Lacy (who was herself the victim of an attempted carjacking recently) lost the DA race to POS George Gascon, who was not content with ruining San Francisco and now wants to inflict his particular brand of progressive bullshit on Los Angeles County.

So feel free to disagree with the above, just don't ignore one of the most obvious reasons for this sudden, dramatic, spike in crime.

[GMDino]

Up 537% is a huge number.

125 total car jackings is a big number...which means there was 5 before that.

I'm sure there are multiple reasons beyond the police being "demonized" after one of them killed a man while three others watched.

Police should do a better job of solving them I guess.  I believe that is their job?  We wouldn't want them "demonized" for not doing their job.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(12-02-2020, 02:02 PM)GMDino Wrote: Up 537% is a huge number.

125 total car jackings is a big number...which means there was 5 before that.

Yeah, why would that happen?

Quote:I'm sure there are multiple reasons beyond the police being "demonized" after one of them killed a man while three others watched.

Feel free to list some.  Alternatively, you could actually read the thread before posting in it and see that possible explanations have been discussed.

Quote:Police should do a better job of solving them I guess.  I believe that is their job?  We wouldn't want them "demonized" for not doing their job.

Ahahaha, like you have the first clue what you're talking about.  I'm sure the police are ignoring obvious evidence or just letting the criminals go instead of arresting them.  Dear god, the sheer ignorance of this obvious attempt to bait me. 

[GMDino]

(12-02-2020, 02:12 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Yeah, why would that happen?



Feel free to list some.  Alternatively, you could actually read the thread before posting in it and see that possible explanations have been discussed.


Ahahaha, like you have the first clue what you're talking about.  I'm sure the police are ignoring obvious evidence or just letting the criminals go instead of arresting them.  Dear god, the sheer ignorance of this obvious attempt to bait me. 

Well the article ends with a couple saying the police aren't there.

Quote:The couple say they support police reform efforts, particularly in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, but don’t believe fewer officers is the answer. Several like-minded neighbors said that politicization of the issue has stalled any real attempts to curb the violence.

“I am unsettled by the acceptance that carjacking and attempted murder is being normalized as a new way of life in our city,” Higgins Victor wrote. “Police are gone. Criminals are emboldened. City leaders are not working toward common goals.”

So maybe crime is up because the police don't like criticism and know that if they just don't do their jobs people will suffer and then they can come in and "save the day"?  

It has a whole "You need me on that wall" feel to it.

But on the other hand I also know that many who work within the police force don't want to change anything.  We see it all over the country.

So you have the police not doing their jobs, angry citizens, a pandemic, lots of variables that may cause an increase in crime.  Then we have to see if the increase is temporary blip or if it is a trend that will continue.

I mean maybe you have an idea what it will happen and just don't want to say?  'Cause we can keep guessing but it would be easier if you said what you mean instead of playing games.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(12-02-2020, 02:18 PM)GMDino Wrote: Well the article ends with a couple saying the police aren't there.

This couple is stating their perception.  Perhaps the police aren't there as quickly as they like because of the increase in calls?  IN any event, this statement is anecdotal.

Quote:So maybe crime is up because the police don't like criticism and know that if they just don't do their jobs people will suffer and then they can come in and "save the day"?  

Maybe.  You have any evidence of that other than a statement that could be interpreted in other ways from one couple in one article?  I realize this fits your anti-law enforcement world view, hence your advancing this possible cause, you've just done a very poor job of even attempting to support it.

Quote:It has a whole "You need me on that wall" feel to it.

The key word here is "feel".  See above for why you "feel" this way.

Quote:But on the other hand I also know that many who work within the police force don't want to change anything.  We see it all over the country.

You do?  

Quote:So you have the police not doing their jobs, angry citizens, a pandemic, lots of variables that may cause an increase in crime.  Then we have to see if the increase is temporary blip or if it is a trend that will continue.

Where do we see the police not doing their job?  Except in your totally unsupported supposition that is.

Quote:I mean maybe you have an idea what it will happen and just don't want to say?  'Cause we can keep guessing but it would be easier if you said what you mean instead of playing games.

Dear god, learn to read.  I stated in OP why I think it's happening.  I reiterated in my second post in this thread.  You're either being willfully obtuse or your honestly incapable of processing the points being made.  Keep trying though, it's amusing seeing you try and spin this.  

[BrownAssClown]

Holy underwear! The Law and Order President better get up there to restore some "Law & Order!"

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(12-02-2020, 02:45 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote: Holy underwear! The Law and Order President better get up there to restore some "Law & Order!"

I suppose you're unaware of the response when this was done in Portland.  Quips don't make for a compelling argument.  

[*Nately120*]

I'd like to make the suddenly bold move to denounce violent criminals. That is all.

[*michaelsean*]

(12-02-2020, 02:45 PM)BrownAssClown Wrote: Holy underwear! The Law and Order President better get up there to restore some "Law & Order!"

You want the president to come in and handle state affairs?

[*Nately120*]

(12-02-2020, 03:50 PM)michaelsean Wrote: You want the president to come in and handle state affairs?

Only insofar as initiating mobs against the ineffective state officials, so I'll put this down as a maybe. 

[BmorePat87]

Distrust in police. A failing economy. No in person school. A pandemic .

Sounds like a perfect storm that’s causing this rise in mostly adolescent carjackings.

[*Nately120*]

(12-02-2020, 03:59 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Distrust in police. A failing economy. No in person school. A pandemic .

Sounds like a perfect storm that’s causing this rise in mostly adolescent carjackings.

That and those damn vidja games and all the sweet pop kids drink nowadays.

[BrownAssClown]

(12-02-2020, 02:52 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I suppose you're unaware of the response when this was done in Portland.  Quips don't make for a compelling argument.  

I was being obtuse. Since it's your favorite word to throw around. I bet that word wasn't even in your vocabulary before you watched "The Shawshank Redemption" or am I being to obtuse. BTW if law enforcement are not doing their job in Minneapolis, they need to be replaced. If a government official or officials are hindering law enforcement from doing their job, they need to be replaced.

[fredtoast]

Let me make sure I have this straight.

-Anecdotal evidence from law enforcement is valid proof but anecdotal evidence from anyone criticizing law enforcement is meaningless.

-No proof that the courts or prosecutors in Minneapolis are going easy on criminals.

-Efficient police work does nothing to reduce crime.

-And finally, we are supposed to ignore prior police willful inaction so well recognized that it earned the name "Blue Flu".

[Belsnickel]

(12-02-2020, 02:02 PM)GMDino Wrote: Up 537% is a huge number.

125 total car jackings is a big number...which means there was 5 before that.

Everybody just going to gloss over this math error?

[Benton]

It falls into a chicken/egg situation for me.

At some point, crime goes up. Also at some point, we start going from cops being parts of communities as peace keepers to cops being trained to be shock troops.

Personally, I don't think the answer is doubling down on giving young cops an attitude that the world is against them. I interviewed a state police post commander once for a retirement story. I asked him what was the biggest change he saw during his run. He said it was the troopers. Paraphrasing as I wrote the story 15ish years ago but basically he said: 'When I hired on, you'd ride with a guy and ask him what he used to do. It was always a mechanic or selling cars or a farm hand. Now it's all guys out of the military.'

I asked him if that was better or worse, he just shrugged.