Who will be Inaugurated to be U. S. President on January 20, 2025 ? - POLL

[Dill]

(06-07-2024, 11:20 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: But I've been told if Trump wins, it's the end of Democracy???

You've definitely been told Trump's re-election will mean a CRISIS of DEMOCRACY. 

But I've also heard that the GOP is on a MISSION OF PEACE.

We should have some idea who's right by this time next year.

[*michaelsean*]

(06-09-2024, 07:34 PM)Dill Wrote: And I remember one election when people were mocked for warning that the sitting president might not go quietly. 

And that time he really didn't. 

I didn’t say everything anyone says is wrong. I said people predict every president will destroy the country. Still here.

[*Nately120*]

(06-09-2024, 10:26 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I didn’t say everything anyone says is wrong. I said people predict every president will destroy the country. Still here.

Destroy?  Not so...it's all a question of perception and it's pretty clear we live in a bi-partisan sense of reality.  I think a second Trump term could very much turn into a "I'll stick around until things are fixed...the ends justify the means" lifetime term ala Putin in Russia.  The fact that a lot of people who will vote for Trump praise or at least see the logic behind Russia's current government and leader is what makes our acceptance of such a move gives it a non zero chance of happening in ways we haven't seen before.

Trump and conservative media and a lot of conservatives have incorporated what I'd consider a troubling amount of acceptance/admiration for leaders and countries that are far less democratic than ours.  That is what makes me think a similar move in this country is more likely than it was in other elections. Honestly, the idea that "it can't happen to me" is the first step towards it happening to you in a lot of cases...maybe this is one of them.

You change minds before you change policy, and I think enough people are into the idea that Trump sticking around for more than 4 years wouldn't be a travesty, rather it'd be pretty awesome for it to happen.  Besides, we're going to let him back in via democracy, so why not suspend things for a bit.  If Trump wins 2 non consecutive terms it'll be a sign to many that we as a country admitted we made a mistake by letting someone else in.  Trump will be 78, how long could he be around?  Why not let him have more than 4 years to fix things?


Or devil's advocate...explain to me why Trump shouldn't stick around for more than 4 years if we re elected him.

[depthchart]

(06-09-2024, 07:31 PM)Dill Wrote: Documentable irregularities (not Italian lasers and Chinese paper) could produce Dem challenges, or Republican, in various states, a la Florida in 2000.

Also, new laws in Republican states like AZ and GA could create chaos if a close and murky result is shifted to the state legislature for final decision.

Absent that, no, I don't seem much in the way of election denying. If the Electoral college shows Trump a clear winner, Biden will concede.
There'll be no 1/6 style insurrection during certification. Biden won't do that, his people would not go along, and even if they did there is no Dem
cult to march on the Capitol believing they were following their Dear Leader's orders.  The party's and their leaders are VERY different.

As far as "manage to keep going"--it's quite possible we are are still a democracy in ten years, but if Trump wins there will be democratic and 
constitutional crisis. Worse still, the media machine which exempts him from accountability will work overtime blaming the chaos on Dems and the 
deep state.  Not sure the country will recover from that. It would take a revamp of our public education system to create a new generation of voters
with a clear idea of what democracy is, and why it collapses when it does. 

I would expect that Security around the Capital will be elevated to a level that would make another 1/6 style event much less likely to occur.


So if Trump were to win, do you see Biden and his wife meeting Trump and his wife at the White House with a typical Inauguration 

Ceremony where Biden & Kamala are present giving the picture of a seamless transition of Power ?


After all, Biden & many Democrats have called Trump & the MAGA movement many negative things including being a "grave threat to Democracy" 

setting up a potential justification not to seamlessly transition to them.  (if they are really as bad as they say)

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-09-2024, 07:40 PM)Dill Wrote: You've definitely been told Trump's re-election will mean a CRISIS of DEMOCRACY. 

But I've also heard that the GOP is on a MISSION OF PEACE.

We should have some idea who's right by this time next year.

Bullshit, Bidens' campaign is centered on Saving Democracy. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-09-2024, 07:34 PM)Dill Wrote: And I remember one election when people were mocked for warning that the sitting president might not go quietly. 

And that time he really didn't. 

broken clocks are right 2 times a day. 

(06-09-2024, 07:38 PM)Dill Wrote: Well said. Enough people are also open to the autocratic, xenophobic leaders and reducing the strength of our alliances if it will bring down gas prices.

Name calling isn't going to help matter, by calling them xenophobic, you make imply that anyone that votes for them is also automatically a xenophobe. 

Typical political slander

[Dill]

(06-10-2024, 05:55 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: broken clocks are right 2 times a day. 

Broken or whole, no clock tells time by induction.  

Those who issued warnings in 2020 were following the indices of Trump's own words and behavior. 

The signs are worse this time around. I'm sorry O-mike, but what you are doing here is just a kind of denial.

(06-10-2024, 05:55 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Name calling isn't going to help matter, by calling them xenophobic, you make imply that anyone that votes for them is also automatically a xenophobe. 

Typical political slander

It would be typical political slander to call Dems in Congress "Fascist Communists" or Fani and Alvin "racists." 

And if I called Michaelsean "xenophobic" that would be name calling, for sure, since he's said nothing xenophonic,
like calling immigrants "monsters" and "rapists" and "poison" in the blood of the nation.

But it is not "typical political slander" or name calling to apply the term to the guy who promised to ban Muslims and 
complained about immigrants from "shithole countries."  

Remember the poem Trump fondly recites at his rallies--"The Snake"? Does THAT "help matters"? 

As with your dismissal of warnings back in 2020, you are separating judgments from the evidence upon which they are based. 
The next step is to substitute some other reason for the judgment, like "hate," and Trump's dangerous and erratic behavior
disappears into "fake news." 

And you are worried those who accept this behavior in voting for Trump might be "xenophobes" by implication.

That's no good reason NOT to recognize Trump's behavior for what it is. 

[Dill]

(06-10-2024, 01:48 AM)depthchart Wrote: So if Trump were to win, do you see Biden and his wife meeting Trump and his wife at the White House with a typical Inauguration 

Ceremony where Biden & Kamala are present giving the picture of a seamless transition of Power ?

After all, Biden & many Democrats have called Trump & the MAGA movement many negative things including being a "grave threat to Democracy" 

setting up a potential justification not to seamlessly transition to them.  (if they are really as bad as they say)

Interesting question. 

Because Biden does support democracy and the peaceful tradition of power, he would likely want to do all that ceremonial stuff.

The real question is whether Trump would go for it. Past precedent gives us some indication of whether Trump would welcome, say, a first lady
tea and tour. You say Biden & many Democrats have called Trump & MAGA negative things. But Trump is talking about indicting Biden and jailing Dems.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/01/20/biden-inauguration-traditions-trumps-didnt-do/4223098001/

[*pally*]

(06-10-2024, 10:27 AM)Dill Wrote: Interesting question. 

Because Biden does support democracy and the peaceful tradition of power, he would likely want to do all that ceremonial stuff.

The real question is whether Trump would go for it. Past precedent gives us some indication of whether Trump would welcome, say, a first lady
tea and tour. You say Biden & many Democrats have called Trump & MAGA negative things. But Trump is talking about indicting Biden and jailing Dems.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/01/20/biden-inauguration-traditions-trumps-didnt-do/4223098001/

There is  no doubt in my mind, that if Joe Biden loses in Nov he will extend to Trump all the courtesies and norms that Trump denied him.  

[Dill]

(06-10-2024, 12:41 PM)pally Wrote: There is  no doubt in my mind, that if Joe Biden loses in Nov he will extend to Trump all the courtesies and norms that Trump denied him.  

Agreed. The question is whether Trump will go along.  

[CJD]

(06-07-2024, 06:21 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Not sure i see the point in this, the number of people on the left out number the people on the right.

Yea, but the electoral college favors the people on the right, which evens the playing field considerably.

I think it will all come down to whether the people in this forum are optimists or pessimists haha.

Because there's no way anyone here actually has a good sense of who will win. Polls are unreliable, echo chambers are stronger than ever before and media only magnifies those echo chambers.

I am going to tend towards optimism that Biden will win re-election, but you never know what the people in this country will do on election day. It all comes down to who decides to vote, rather than who the majority of people agree with.

[Millhouse]

I believe one of the things that hurts Biden the most are topics with differing opinions with his administration and the progressive far left as opinions of the 'right wing', which simply isn't the case. The moderates out there I believe tend to side with opinions opposite of the 'progressive woke left' (not progressive left of years ago) on issues such as border security, forced dei, certain gender topics, etc. I mean, I don't know of any moderates that want millions of illegals streaming over every year while thinking its ok for a kid to have a sex change operation for example. 12-16 years ago, this wasn't even a thing to think about as I voted for Obama twice. But now tho, things aren't the same. And it isn't like I am talking about about something from 50 years ago, this is very recent history on how quick the 'progressive woke left' has influenced society which I for one disagree with as an independent.

My point is, this election will be decided by moderates out there, and I believe have been ignored on issues because it's always about the left vs. the right in the media.

I don't know who wins as both are terrible choices for this country, worst ever imo relative to the times. An Obama kind of candidate would wipe the floor with Trump. A moderate GOP cndidate would wipe the floor with Biden. So yeah I don't know, but I do think it's up the middle moderate Americans out there that will decide.

(Since 2000 I voted for Bush, Bush, Obama, Obama, blank 2016, Biden, and now 2024 probably blank again)

[Luvnit2]

As everyone knows I am a poll guy. Looking at polling right now, it appears Trump may not only win in 2024, but he will also win the popular vote.

I try and put myself in liberals' shoes, what would I think based on these polls?

I see Minnesota where Trump is within the margin of error, a state Biden won big in 2020. I see Virginia tied in some polls, again Biden won handily in 2020, but Youngkin a Republican is now governor so swing it appears to GOP in Virginia. I am not saying Trump wins either, but I look at NY and Trump only down 10 as being a major blow to the Biden popular vote.

I see Trump leading Biden in 6 of 7 swing states.

The election is not soon so a lot of times for things to change, but if a liberal, very concerned the conviction of Trump had little if any negative impact on him. The voters know both candidates and their records. All of the underlying polling shows Trump with big leads over Biden on inflation/economy, Border, foreign affairs and crime.

I said it a long time ago, the border crisis created by Biden will be his undoing as Democratic cities are literally going broke and choosing illegal immigrants health and financial wellbeing over tax paying minorities. The amount of undecided voters Biden is experiencing due to liberal anti-Israel protests is also an issue. Many have said Biden lost their vote.

It appears both campaigns have a ton of money and building. One negative for Trump is the Democratic machine developed in every state over decades. They have the voter infrastructure in place to bring voters home prior to the election.

[*Nately120*]

(06-10-2024, 01:56 PM)Dill Wrote: Agreed. The question is whether Trump will go along.  

I don't see why he would.  Trump can't like the guy much IRL, but Trump's narrative is that Biden has been trying to have him thrown into prison unjustly and that Biden is a corrupt dictator who is actively trying to ruin America.  I know that isn't reality, but as far as the Trump narrative goes it's like asking a man if he'd like to hang out and shake hands with someone who murdered his wife.

Biden supporters would likely forgive/tolerate him being cordial and ceremonial towards Trump, but based on what Trump and his supporters say about Biden I'd expect them to be furious if Trump was anything but openly antagonistic towards Biden.  It'd be like shaking hands with Osama Bin Laden.

[*Nately120*]

(06-07-2024, 06:21 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Not sure i see the point in this, the number of people on the left out number the people on the right.

Our system isn't based upon what most people want.  We have 100 senators that aren't evenly distributed along the lines of "most people" and the EC for good or ill takes the popular vote out of the equation (meaning the less popular candidate with the less popular policies can win).  For example, Roe being overturned while "most people" vote to protect abortion access is a direct result of (I think) 5 conservative SC justices being appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote.

Things have slanted towards conservatives getting more of a say than what you'd expect given the number of people on the left vs the right...it's just not how it works.  I'm betting Trump loses the popular vote again but wins the election.  He can very well be a two term president who lost 3 popular votes by a total of some 13+ million votes but it doesn't matter.

Keep in mind, from 1980-1988 republicans won the popular vote by a combined 35,000,000 votes or so.  

[Luvnit2]

(06-09-2024, 10:37 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Destroy?  Not so...it's all a question of perception and it's pretty clear we live in a bi-partisan sense of reality.  I think a second Trump term could very much turn into a "I'll stick around until things are fixed...the ends justify the means" lifetime term ala Putin in Russia.  The fact that a lot of people who will vote for Trump praise or at least see the logic behind Russia's current government and leader is what makes our acceptance of such a move gives it a non zero chance of happening in ways we haven't seen before.

Trump and conservative media and a lot of conservatives have incorporated what I'd consider a troubling amount of acceptance/admiration for leaders and countries that are far less democratic than ours.  That is what makes me think a similar move in this country is more likely than it was in other elections. Honestly, the idea that "it can't happen to me" is the first step towards it happening to you in a lot of cases...maybe this is one of them.

You change minds before you change policy, and I think enough people are into the idea that Trump sticking around for more than 4 years wouldn't be a travesty, rather it'd be pretty awesome for it to happen.  Besides, we're going to let him back in via democracy, so why not suspend things for a bit.  If Trump wins 2 non consecutive terms it'll be a sign to many that we as a country admitted we made a mistake by letting someone else in.  Trump will be 78, how long could he be around?  Why not let him have more than 4 years to fix things?


Or devil's advocate...explain to me why Trump shouldn't stick around for more than 4 years if we re elected him.

one word for you

SUCCESS


SUCCESS BREEDS SUCCESS AND LIKELY VP CHOICE WINS 2028 ELECTION. 

[Luvnit2]

(06-10-2024, 05:33 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I don't see why he would.  Trump can't like the guy much IRL, but Trump's narrative is that Biden has been trying to have him thrown into prison unjustly and that Biden is a corrupt dictator who is actively trying to ruin America.  I know that isn't reality, but as far as the Trump narrative goes it's like asking a man if he'd like to hang out and shake hands with someone who murdered his wife.

Biden supporters would likely forgive/tolerate him being cordial and ceremonial towards Trump, but based on what Trump and his supporters say about Biden I'd expect them to be furious if Trump was anything but openly antagonistic towards Biden.  It'd be like shaking hands with Osama Bin Laden.

I want Trump to unite the country, not go after Biden or anyone personally. I feel a Garland DOJ is politically motivated, Trump needs to clean up the DOJ by firing them, not persecuting them. I don't think you have any idea how Trump supporters think, you continually treat us as uneducated morons, we are far from it.

Will the Democrats be adult if Trump wins, or will they throw a temper tantrum as they did in 2016?

It takes 2 people to stop a fight, Trump had said over and over again, no retribution. Problem is liberals have no policy to run on so only thing they can do is make up false propaganda about Trump and his supporters.

[HarleyDog]

I voted Trump because he's the most likely option the citizens will vote for. Things are too messed up right now for so many. But again, I live in a Trump state so I see Trump flags everywhere.

[HarleyDog]

(06-10-2024, 08:01 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote:
I want Trump to unite the country, not go after Biden or anyone personally. I feel a Garland DOJ is politically motivated, Trump needs to clean up the DOJ by firing them, not persecuting them. I don't think you have any idea how Trump supporters think, you continually treat us as uneducated morons, we are far from it.

Will the Democrats be adult if Trump wins, or will they throw a temper tantrum as they did in 2016?

It takes 2 people to stop a fight, Trump had said over and over again, no retribution. Problem is liberals have no policy to run on so only thing they can do is make up false propaganda about Trump and his supporters.

He won't go after Biden. Not his style. He might go after the system. Let's be fair. The charges brought on him were fabricated, exacerbated, inflated, and in some cases plain lies. If he doesn't, our system won't get any better, only worse because they got away with chest bumping their power. 

[*Nately120*]

(06-10-2024, 08:01 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote:
I want Trump to unite the country, not go after Biden or anyone personally. I feel a Garland DOJ is politically motivated, Trump needs to clean up the DOJ by firing them, not persecuting them. I don't think you have any idea how Trump supporters think, you continually treat us as uneducated morons, we are far from it.

Will the Democrats be adult if Trump wins, or will they throw a temper tantrum as they did in 2016?

It takes 2 people to stop a fight, Trump had said over and over again, no retribution. Problem is liberals have no policy to run on so only thing they can do is make up false propaganda about Trump and his supporters.

So when Trump says "I am your retribution" he's either lying or he's just too demented to not contradict himself in an exceedingly blatant manner?  Or was he talking about the auto industry or Minecraft, or what?  It's cool that you think Trump is just another run of the mill president but a lot of people think he's not and he's going to do stuff other presidents didn't have the balls to do.