Why Throwing Near the Goal Line is Risky

[Fan_in_Kettering]

The area of an NFL end zone is 533.3 square yards. Given five defensive backs this means each must cover 106.7 square yards which is approximately a 30’ x 30’ space in zone coverage.

Every five yards from the goal line adds 266.7 square yards to cover for those five defensive backs.

That means in the Red Zone the defensive backs must cover an area of 533.3 square yards of the end zone + 4(266.7 square yards) = 1600.1 square yards. Now in zone coverage each of those five defensive backs must cover 320 square yards which is approximately a 54’ x 54’ space.

The smaller the area the easier it is for the secondary to cover receivers. Near the goal line receivers have less area to accelerate and maneuver which shrinks the available branches on each route tree. The defense can sit on routes all day and break up passes like we saw Cleveland do today.

The Bengals need to resurrect the 2009 “jumbo package” near the goal line and relearn to run that ball right at the defense for six points.

[BFritz21]

(11-08-2021, 12:50 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: The area of an NFL end zone is 533.3 square yards.  Given five defensive backs this means each must cover 106.7 square yards which is approximately a 30’ x 30’ space in zone coverage.

Every five yards from the goal line adds 266.7 square yards to cover for those five defensive backs.  

That means in the Red Zone the defensive backs must cover an area of 533.3 square yards of the end zone + 4(266.7 square yards) = 1600.1 square yards.  Now in zone coverage each of those five defensive backs must cover 320 square yards which is approximately a 54’ x 54’ space.

The smaller the area the easier it is for the secondary to cover receivers.  Near the goal line receivers have less area to accelerate and maneuver which shrinks the available branches on each route tree.  The defense can sit on routes all day and break up passes like we saw Cleveland do today.

The Bengals need to resurrect the 2009 “jumbo package” near the goal line and relearn to run that ball right at the defense for six points.

Exact same thing I said but apparently everyone in my thread thought it was a good play call.

The defender doesn't have to backpedal because he doesn't have to worry about anyone getting behind him.  

He's basically watching the quarterback and just waiting to break, and he's not going to jump at the whip route where Chase faked inside because he knows the area is too small with other defenders around and he could still make a break on the ball either way.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-08-2021, 12:50 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: The area of an NFL end zone is 533.3 square yards.  Given five defensive backs this means each must cover 106.7 square yards which is approximately a 30’ x 30’ space in zone coverage.

Every five yards from the goal line adds 266.7 square yards to cover for those five defensive backs.  

That means in the Red Zone the defensive backs must cover an area of 533.3 square yards of the end zone + 4(266.7 square yards) = 1600.1 square yards.  Now in zone coverage each of those five defensive backs must cover 320 square yards which is approximately a 54’ x 54’ space.

The smaller the area the easier it is for the secondary to cover receivers.  Near the goal line receivers have less area to accelerate and maneuver which shrinks the available branches on each route tree.  The defense can sit on routes all day and break up passes like we saw Cleveland do today.

The Bengals need to resurrect the 2009 “jumbo package” near the goal line and relearn to run that ball right at the defense for six points.

(Before today) Redzone touchdown percentages, for even average teams is 61%. Every team in the NFL, except 2; NYG and Wash, have a 50% success rate in scoring touchdowns in the redzone. 

Apparently, it's not as big of a deal as you're making it out to be.

P.S. THE BENGALS ARE 5TH IN THE NFL IN CONVERTING TOUCHDOWNS IN THE REDZONE AT 70%!! 10 of the 14 are touchdown passes. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(Before today) 286 touchdown passes in the redzone. 23 interceptions in the redzone. 12 touchdowns per interception. 8% interception rate. 

Souper Rixky!!!!!!

[BFritz21]

(11-08-2021, 02:45 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: (Before today) Redzone touchdown percentages, for even average teams is 61%. Every team in the NFL, except 2; NYG and Wash, have a 50% success rate in scoring touchdowns in the redzone. 

Apparently, it's not as big of a deal as you're making it out to be.

P.S. THE BENGALS ARE 5TH IN THE NFL IN CONVERTING TOUCHDOWNS IN THE REDZONE AT 70%!! 10 of the 14 are touchdown passes. 

(11-08-2021, 02:53 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: (Before today) 286 touchdown passes in the redzone. 23 interceptions in the redzone. 12 touchdowns per interception. 8% interception rate. 

Souper Rixky!!!!!!

How many of those came with the ball starting inside the 5?

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-08-2021, 03:12 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many of those came with the ball starting inside the 5?

Throwing it from the 5 should be easier than the 10, 15 or 20 because the pass travels a shorter distance. Profootballreference only tracks passes from 'inside the 10' and 'inside the 20' for redzone stats. 

[Bengals-Man12345]

Sounds like a long winded excuse for Burrows shitty throw.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-08-2021, 12:50 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: The area of an NFL end zone is 533.3 square yards.  Given five defensive backs this means each must cover 106.7 square yards which is approximately a 30’ x 30’ space in zone coverage.

Every five yards from the goal line adds 266.7 square yards to cover for those five defensive backs.  

That means in the Red Zone the defensive backs must cover an area of 533.3 square yards of the end zone + 4(266.7 square yards) = 1600.1 square yards.  Now in zone coverage each of those five defensive backs must cover 320 square yards which is approximately a 54’ x 54’ space.

The smaller the area the easier it is for the secondary to cover receivers.  Near the goal line receivers have less area to accelerate and maneuver which shrinks the available branches on each route tree.  The defense can sit on routes all day and break up passes like we saw Cleveland do today.

The Bengals need to resurrect the 2009 “jumbo package” near the goal line and relearn to run that ball right at the defense for six points.

Especially if it is at Denzel Ward.  

[*Nately120*]

Burrow is too swaggalicious to care about your stats.

[fredtoast]

(11-08-2021, 03:12 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many of those came with the ball starting inside the 5?

NFL teams throwing inside 5 yard line this year

293 attempts, 135 tds, 7 ints

Play Finder | Stathead.com

[KillerGoose]

(11-08-2021, 12:50 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: The area of an NFL end zone is 533.3 square yards.  Given five defensive backs this means each must cover 106.7 square yards which is approximately a 30’ x 30’ space in zone coverage.

Every five yards from the goal line adds 266.7 square yards to cover for those five defensive backs.  

That means in the Red Zone the defensive backs must cover an area of 533.3 square yards of the end zone + 4(266.7 square yards) = 1600.1 square yards.  Now in zone coverage each of those five defensive backs must cover 320 square yards which is approximately a 54’ x 54’ space.

The smaller the area the easier it is for the secondary to cover receivers.  Near the goal line receivers have less area to accelerate and maneuver which shrinks the available branches on each route tree.  The defense can sit on routes all day and break up passes like we saw Cleveland do today.

The Bengals need to resurrect the 2009 “jumbo package” near the goal line and relearn to run that ball right at the defense for six points.

Since 2010, NFL teams have a touchdown percentage of 39% when throwing the ball and an interception percentage of 1.9% within the five yard line. Crazily enough, you have a higher chance of fumbling than throwing an interception down in the five. Since 2010, the interception percentage is 1.9% and the fumble percentage is a little over 2%. The touchdown percentages for rushing are pretty much the same.

[KillerGoose]

(11-08-2021, 03:12 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: How many of those came with the ball starting inside the 5?

Since 2010


6857 pass attempts
2681 touchdowns (39%)
137 interceptions (1.9%)

Since 2015 

4020 attempts
1575 touchdowns (39%)
80 interceptions (1.9%)

Burrow, since being drafted


27 attempts
11 touchdowns (40%)
3 interceptions (11%)

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-08-2021, 08:05 AM)Bengals-Man12345 Wrote: Sounds like a long winded excuse for Burrows shitty throw.

Pretty much....and the fact that we can't seem to run very well down there.

[Sled21]

(11-08-2021, 10:13 AM)Wyche Wrote: Pretty much....and the fact that we can't seem to run very well down there.

And that's because they don't have to defend deep and can stack the box. Piss poor take Brad.

[TecmoBengals]

I like Burrow and his toys (Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Mixon, etc) because watching an explosive passing game is exciting, but I'd also be happy to see real investment in the run game for short yardage situations and the red zone. Why not get a talented fullback? Ensure the TEs are are ready for blocking. Let the WRs know that epic Chase block is how the Bengals want to run the offense. If Mixon's big contract reflects investment in the run game, then do more to embrace it.

Note: I don't know jack about coaching football, yet alone the NFL. I just feel blah about Zac's offense when watching the game.

[P W]

(11-08-2021, 08:05 AM)Bengals-Man12345 Wrote: Sounds like a long winded excuse for Burrows shitty throw.

[TecmoBengals]

(11-08-2021, 11:11 AM)P W Wrote:

Eh, there is enough bad to go around. Bad coaching decisions, bad play by Burrow, bad this or that. Discussing one aspect of the bad, game calls, doesn't equate to excusing Burrow's poor decision.

[P W]

(11-08-2021, 11:16 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Eh, there is enough bad to go around. Bad coaching decisions, bad play by Burrow, bad this or that. Discussing one aspect of the bad, game calls, doesn't equate to excusing Burrow's poor decision.

agreed, yesterday's game didn't really have any positive notes. plenty of bad to go around for every player and every coach and every employee of the front office. a systematic failure and a systemic failure is how i would sum up the bengals/browns game.

onward to the next game. hopefully they get a couple of things figured out between now and then.

[Emeritus]

All of the percentages are fine.... But
This is still Zac Taylors offense and play calling.
They'll be fine for "now" just look at the records around the AFC. This team is a sleeping giant but our offensive line isn't good enough just yet. We just needed to sprinkle in some VETS Katie!!! We still love Katie as Bengal fans and she'll get a ring in a few years at a cost. Some people will have to go. Will she do it?