Why a QB this year isn't the move

[*Synric*]

Its 2018....you are the Arizona Cardinals do you take Kyler Murray or Nick Bosa?

You take Kyler Murray. Why? He puts butts in the seats and you can build around him.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 04:31 PM)Synric Wrote: Its 2018....you are the Arizona Cardinals do you take Kyler Murray or Nick Bosa?

You take Kyler Murray. Why? He puts butts in the seats and you can build around him.

One is playing at a level similar to undrafted Kyle Allen the other is potentially defensive player of the year. Which team is set better going forward? I am a Murray fan, but that actually seems counter productive to the pro QB argument. The cards would have been better off staying with Rosen and drafting Bosa.

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 04:34 PM)Au165 Wrote: One is playing at a level similar to undrafted Kyle Allen the other is potentially defensive player of the year. Which team is set better going forward? I am a Murray fan, but that actually seems counter productive to the pro QB argument. 

Even if they took Nick Bosa it wouldnt have changed the outlook of the Cardinals they still have to fix alot of things

The Bengals aren't going to fix the entire team with a QB or Pass Rusher. They have to continue to build around these guys.

Left Tackle and Quarterback is not a bad way to start a rebuild.... If there is a QB worth taking top 3. You can't just write off QB as a pick.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 04:38 PM)Synric Wrote: Even if they took Nick Bosa it wouldnt have changed the outlook of the Cardinals they still have to fix alot of things

The Bengals aren't going to fix the entire team with a QB or Pass Rusher. They have to continue to build around these guys.

Left Tackle and Quarterback is not a bad way to start a rebuild.... If there is a QB worth taking top 3.

Okay, I can see we aren't getting anywhere so let's try this. If I tell you one guy is going to grade out as a 6.5-6.7 and another guy will grade out as a 8-8.5 which player would you take to build around since neither will win right away? Those are the ranges I am hearing in terms of Burrow/Tua versus Chase Young, it really seems like a no brainer but it goes against conventional group think.

[*Synric*]

(11-11-2019, 04:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: Okay, I can see we aren't getting anywhere so let's try this. If I tell you one guy is going to grade out as a 6.5-6.7 and another guy will grade out as a 8-8.5 which player would you take to build around since neither will win right away? Those are the ranges I am hearing in terms of Burrow/Tua versus Chase Young, it really seems like a no brainer but it goes against conventional group think.

By numbers you always take the highest guy on the board but you have to weigh QB higher than every other position...

It's back to that question Kyler Murray or Nick Bosa? Really is no good answer. You know Nick Bosa is going to be great but you really wanna shape your future around a QB.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 04:52 PM)Synric Wrote: By numbers you always take the highest guy on the board but you have to weigh QB higher than every other position...

It's back to that question Kyler Murray or Nick Bosa? Really is no good answer. You know Nick Bosa is going to be great but you really wanna shape your future around a QB.

I think the better question is David Carr or Julius Peppers? That is a closer situation than Murray vs Bosa because Carr was going to one of the worst teams ever. We are talking about bringing a rookie QB to a team that could be one of the worst teams in history. 

[*Synric*]

We are gonna have to agree to disagree on this Au. Still had more fun with argument than anything posted in Jungle Noise in the last 2 months. LoL

[Au165]

I will say this, if the team goes with a QB at #1 overall to me it says as much about Jonah Williams as the QB. It means this coaching staff believe the O line issues can be fixed enough plugging this guy in that they can put a #1 overall pick safely behind that line.

I'd feel better taking a QB #1 overall if Williams gets back and plays a couple games this year.

[Catmandude123]

If Burrow continues to light it up there will be plenty of QB needy teams who would break the bank. Trade back and either demand a starting tackle then taking the Best Defensive player available. Then draft QB in the second round. Bengals would be in the cat birds seat but will the front office pounce? All the angst we are going thru now may be just the Phoenix rising from the ashes.

[Whatever]

(11-11-2019, 04:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: How many of those rebuild came after going 0-16 potentially? Palmer was 32-33 his first 5 years (although he got hurt his 5th year but they were 0-4 when he did). Palmer came into a bad situation and we meandered around as an average team the first 5 years. Dalton came in with one of the better lines in football and a top 10 defense in both points and yards, something a rookie next year will 100% not have.  Dalton came into a really good situation and we fond success quicker, which is exactly what I am talking about setting up here.

The Falcons tried to fix their O line with multiple rookies this year and it was a disaster. The Vikings a couple years ago tried to fix it with 5 new starters through FA and draft, it was a disaster. Good O lines tend to take a year or two to meld together outside of replacing one starter. Thinking you can patch it up is wishful thinking and frankly disregarding that is not how this team will build.

From a business perspective loss of ticket sales is a drop in the bucket. The announced attendance was 45k on Sunday and while 45k people weren't there the Bengals benefited from selling 45k tickets. Let's go ahead and say our average attendance is in fact 45k, in comparison our average attendance during good years was about 60k tickets. Over the course of 8 home games that works out to 120k tickets we aren't selling right now versus some of our best years. Let's say each ticket is $70 a piece, that means the team is only missing out on 8.4 million dollars a year currently with a team that could be 0-16. Now that is probably offset a bit by Taylor and his staff making a substantially smaller amount than Marvin in salary and honestly it's a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly $250 million the national revenue share piece they get.

Chasing mid tier QB's statistically doesn't work, and Dalton was more outlier than he was rule as much as people here hated him. There have been 59 QB's drafted since Dalton (besides this recent class since it's too soon). Of those 59 QB's 5 QB's have worked out as decent or better long term starter options Prescott, Wilson, Jimmy G, Carr, Cousins and Jacoby Brissett may be that guy but we will see. So let's say for the sake of this discussion 6 out of 59 or roughly 10% of QB's could end up being some version of good after the 1st round. In comparison, there have been 21 QB's taken in the 1st since the Dalton draft with 11 being serviceable starters or 52%. Being drafted in the 1st doesn't make you good, being drafted in the 1st usually means if there is any chance you will be good people will take a swing on you because of the leagues desire to find a QB.

Putting off a QB for another year with this team is probably a difference in 2-3 wins. If you talk to professional gamblers a QB is worth 1-2 games usually with some of the elite ones being worth 3-3.5 wins. If this team is an 0-16 team they are most likely a 4 win or less team next year and no QB changes that so you invest in the team around the QB and run any guy out there to then position for one more big draft before the real push to win begins. As fans you hate to see it, but if you look at the teams who are winning now that came from a dumpster fire like us, San Francisco for example, they take a couple years of high pick drafting before they really make upward movement. 

The Bengals were 2-14 in '02 the year before they drafted Palmer.  They were 8-8 in '03 with Kitna at QB.  The Browns were 0-16 in '17 and 7-8-1 the following year.  The league is built on parity.  You can turn it around quickly if you make the right moves.

Dalton didn't come in with a great line.  The '10 Bengals OL was...

• 72 Kirk Chambers T
• 73 Anthony Collins T
• 64 Kyle Cook C
• 62 Nate Livings G
• 66 Evan Mathis G
• 74 Dennis Roland T
• 61 Reggie Stephens C
• 77 Andrew Whitworth T
• 63 Bobbie Williams G
  

Andre Smith had gone on IR with broken feet in '09 and '10 and was very much trending towards bust status at that time.  Their big OL add in '11 was Boling in the 4th, but he didn't become a quality starter until year 2.  They were also the 15th ranked defense in '10, not a top 10 unit.

If Jonah Williams pans out and you retain Hopkins, then you're basically a LG and a RT away from having a decent OL.  Hopkins is solid.  Miller is serviceable.  If he's one of your top 2 OL, you're in trouble, but if he's your 4th or 5th best, you're ok.  

The Bengals sold a bunch of season tickets due to the coaching change last year.  The bloom is off that rose.  If this team goes 0-16, how many of those season ticket holders do you think will reup without some major impetus?  Not many.  You also aren't factoring in things like parking, concessions, and souvenirs.  The average revenue per fan is probably closer to $150.  Plus a new franchise QB means jersey sales, etc.  

We can argue chasing mid tier QB's, but percentages aren't likely to dissuade a team that beat those same percentages.  I'm not sure why you don't have Nick Foles listed at as hit, as he's won a SB.  Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minishew may also buck the trend.  You could hit on one, or you can easily move on if you miss.

If you're going to suck next year, anyways, why not get your QB when you have the chance?  Then you can take the bpa or trade down for a king's ransom with some team desperate for a QB next year.  

[Jason_NC]

The way this team operates this will not be a 1 year fix. (Even though it could be with the right free agents.) So if they decide to take Chase Young in 1 and go for the QB next season, as painful as another bad year would be, I'd understand.

But as of now Burrow is the guy I want.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-11-2019, 05:10 PM)Au165 Wrote: I will say this, if the team goes with a QB at #1 overall to me it says as much about Jonah Williams as the QB. It means this coaching staff believe the O line issues can be fixed enough plugging this guy in that they can put a #1 overall pick safely behind that line.

I'd feel better taking a QB #1 overall if Williams gets back and plays a couple games this year.

What if Williams comes back this year and looks good, they draft a QB #1, then say a Solomon Kindley is there in rd2 and then they sign a guy like Jack Conklin or Brandon Scherff. That leaves defense until the 3rd round but if they cut some fat, maybe throw in a Corey Littleton. 

I don't know why i waste time typing this shit. There's ways they can improve but they're not smart enough or willing to do things other legit NFL teams would do to improve, so they'll end up signing "their own" crappy players to bloated contracts then cry there's no money left for good outside FAs and they'll draft a "bell cow" QB #1, someone on D with an injury history in the 2nd, then they'll be just as crappy next year as they've been the last 3+...

This FO is so ***** incompetent, they make me want to punt puppies into the Ohio river. 

[Au165]

(11-12-2019, 02:45 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: What if Williams comes back this year and looks good, they draft a QB #1, then say a Solomon Kindley is there in rd2 and then they sign a guy like Jack Conklin or Brandon Scherff. That leaves defense until the 3rd round but if they cut some fat, maybe throw in a Corey Littleton. 

I don't know why i waste time typing this shit. There's ways they can improve but they're not smart enough or willing to do things other legit NFL teams would do to improve, so they'll end up signing "their own" crappy players to bloated contracts then cry there's no money left for good outside FAs and they'll draft a "bell cow" QB #1, someone on D with an injury history in the 2nd, then they'll be just as crappy next year as they've been the last 3+...

This FO is so ***** incompetent, they make me want to punt puppies into the Ohio river. 

They simply aren't going to spend big money in free agency on a Scheriff or Conklin. I also don't think they are going to give up on Price and Jordan so I would guess your line is going to look very similar to this year, maybe they take a Tackle after seeing how quickly we got depleted this year. I did notice Zach mention LB again this week and pointing out the bad play, so maybe a guy like Littleton could find his way here, but I'm not sure he gets out of LA.

[Au165]

(11-11-2019, 09:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals were 2-14 in '02 the year before they drafted Palmer.  They were 8-8 in '03 with Kitna at QB.  The Browns were 0-16 in '17 and 7-8-1 the following year.  The league is built on parity.  You can turn it around quickly if you make the right moves.

Dalton didn't come in with a great line.  The '10 Bengals OL was...

• 72 Kirk Chambers T
• 73 Anthony Collins T
• 64 Kyle Cook C
• 62 Nate Livings G
• 66 Evan Mathis G
• 74 Dennis Roland T
• 61 Reggie Stephens C
• 77 Andrew Whitworth T
• 63 Bobbie Williams G
  

Andre Smith had gone on IR with broken feet in '09 and '10 and was very much trending towards bust status at that time.  Their big OL add in '11 was Boling in the 4th, but he didn't become a quality starter until year 2.  They were also the 15th ranked defense in '10, not a top 10 unit.

If Jonah Williams pans out and you retain Hopkins, then you're basically a LG and a RT away from having a decent OL.  Hopkins is solid.  Miller is serviceable.  If he's one of your top 2 OL, you're in trouble, but if he's your 4th or 5th best, you're ok.  

The Bengals sold a bunch of season tickets due to the coaching change last year.  The bloom is off that rose.  If this team goes 0-16, how many of those season ticket holders do you think will reup without some major impetus?  Not many.  You also aren't factoring in things like parking, concessions, and souvenirs.  The average revenue per fan is probably closer to $150.  Plus a new franchise QB means jersey sales, etc.  

We can argue chasing mid tier QB's, but percentages aren't likely to dissuade a team that beat those same percentages.  I'm not sure why you don't have Nick Foles listed at as hit, as he's won a SB.  Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minishew may also buck the trend.  You could hit on one, or you can easily move on if you miss.

If you're going to suck next year, anyways, why not get your QB when you have the chance?  Then you can take the bpa or trade down for a king's ransom with some team desperate for a QB next year.  

Browns 3 year record before that 7-8-1 seasons 3-13, 1-15, 0-16. They accumulated three years worth of high picks before they finally were able to pull out of the nose dive. Actually if you look back at the history of teams that went 0-16 or 1-15 almost all of them had a two year skid before bottoming out then they had a bounce off the bottom but many returned back to the bottom within a year. This to me actually says we are pretty much destined to have one more year at the bottom before a bounce.

A couple things here, Dalton didn't play in 2010 he was drafted in 2011 and played in the 2011 season. In 2011 Pro Football Outsiders graded our pass protection as 5th best in football. In 2011 our defense was 9th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed.

As I explained tickets don't really mean anything to this team. They could sell 20k tickets a game less next year and it be less than a 10 million hit from this years revenue. For a team making 300 Million dollars a year it's really just a drop in the bucket. 

Nick Foles isn't listed because he busted out once in Philly and was sent to KC where he was a back up only to come back as a back up and have a nice few game stretch but never find his way back to being a starter. Maybe he does in JAX but I tend to think scheme carried him in Philly and he will be back to being the guy that got ran out of Philly. As to the other guys, the mystic of the rookie fill in is an interesting case but most people are already saying the Panthers will move on from Cam and Kyle Allen next year, the Jags already punted on Minshew back to Foles. That to me says the teams know they aren't anything special jsut replacement grade players that came in and did good enough.

This is all an analytics play. The value of the rookie QB contract is known by NFL teams as the golden ticket. That contract allows you to build a super roster around a young QB. The window usually shuts after the rookie contract sans a few outliers because then everyone on the team including the QB need paid and you have to start dismantling. The point isn't to not take a good rookie QB, the point is to take them deeper into the rebuild process to save his controllable cheap years to ensure you can build the team around them.

Look at the Rams, when Goff was cheap they brought in all sorts of high priced hired guns to make a run. Now they paid Goff and that team already had to jettison some line pieces to do so and they have regressed. Next year they are rumored to be shipping out Cooks because they can't afford him anymore. This isn't unique to them, the Legion of Boom in Seattle was broken up after Wilson's contract and the same thing happened in Baltimore after Flacco got paid.

[Catmandude123]

(11-12-2019, 09:35 AM)Au165 Wrote: Browns 3 year record before that 7-8-1 seasons 3-13, 1-15, 0-16. They accumulated three years worth of high picks before they finally were able to pull out of the nose dive. Actually if you look back at the history of teams that went 0-16 or 1-15 almost all of them had a two year skid before bottoming out then they had a bounce off the bottom but many returned back to the bottom within a year. This to me actually says we are pretty much destined to have one more year at the bottom before a bounce.

A couple things here, Dalton didn't play in 2010 he was drafted in 2011 and played in the 2011 season. In 2011 Pro Football Outsiders graded our pass protection as 5th best in football. In 2011 our defense was 9th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed.

As I explained tickets don't really mean anything to this team. They could sell 20k tickets a game less next year and it be less than a 10 million hit from this years revenue. For a team making 300 Million dollars a year it's really just a drop in the bucket. 

Nick Foles isn't listed because he busted out once in Philly and was sent to KC where he was a back up only to come back as a back up and have a nice few game stretch but never find his way back to being a starter. Maybe he does in JAX but I tend to think scheme carried him in Philly and he will be back to being the guy that got ran out of Philly. As to the other guys, the mystic of the rookie fill in is an interesting case but most people are already saying the Panthers will move on from Cam and Kyle Allen next year, the Jags already punted on Minshew back to Foles. That to me says the teams know they aren't anything special jsut replacement grade players that came in and did good enough.

This is all an analytics play. The value of the rookie QB contract is known by NFL teams as the golden ticket. That contract allows you to build a super roster around a young QB. The window usually shuts after the rookie contract sans a few outliers because then everyone on the team including the QB need paid and you have to start dismantling. The point isn't to not take a good rookie QB, the point is to take them deeper into the rebuild process to save his controllable cheap years to ensure you can build the team around them.

Look at the Rams, when Goff was cheap they brought in all sorts of high priced hired guns to make a run. Now they paid Goff and that team already had to jettison some line pieces to do so and they have regressed. Next year they are rumored to be shipping out Cooks because they can't afford him anymore. This isn't unique to them, the Legion of Boom in Seattle was broken up after Wilson's contract and the same thing happened in Baltimore after Flacco got paid.

Cleveland is like a lot of NFL teams that have rich owners who want to win no matter the cost. The Bengals owner also wants to win but the caveat is he only wants to win with spending any of his yearly profit.

[Fullrock]

Good discussion going on here, but I would imagine it's a moot point. I think when the organization decided to bench Dalton and start Finley the last half of this season they are clearly saying if Finley doesn't look like the next QB here then they are drafting one, and I'm pretty sure Finley isn't the franchise QB answer.

What I don't think Burrow is getting enough credit for is his athleticism. He's obviously no Lamar Jackson in terms of athleticism, but he made some HUGE plays with his legs in the Alabama game. I do think he has the pocket presence and enough escapability to make up for some offensive line deficiencies. Couple that with his ability to go through progressions, deliver the ball accurately in the face of pressure, and elite ball placement (see a few back shoulder throws in that game) and he looks like a franchise guy.

That being said, we HAVE to have a plan to upgrade the offensive line if the plan is to select a QB. Assuming Jonah Williams is the answer at LT, we have to upgrade at LG and RT. I think Miller can be serviceable at RG.

If there is not a plan in place to upgrade this offensive line, Chase Young is the pick.

[Au165]

(11-12-2019, 10:09 AM)Fullrock Wrote: Good discussion going on here, but I would imagine it's a moot point. I think when the organization decided to bench Dalton and start Finley the last half of this season they are clearly saying if Finley doesn't look like the next QB here then they are drafting one, and I'm pretty sure Finley isn't the franchise QB answer.

What I don't think Burrow is getting enough credit for is his athleticism. He's obviously no Lamar Jackson in terms of athleticism, but he made some HUGE plays with his legs in the Alabama game. I do think he has the pocket presence and enough escapability to make up for some offensive line deficiencies. Couple that with his ability to go through progressions, deliver the ball accurately in the face of pressure, and elite ball placement (see a few back shoulder throws in that game) and he looks like a franchise guy.

That being said, we HAVE to have a plan to upgrade the offensive line if the plan is to select a QB. Assuming Jonah Williams is the answer at LT, we have to upgrade at LG and RT. I think Miller can be serviceable at RG.

If there is not a plan in place to upgrade this offensive line,  Chase Young is the pick.

I think Burrow has plus athleticism but I don't think it's elite. I'd put it similar to a guy like Baker Mayfield, he isn't going to run away from guys in the NFL but he can move around a bit and buy some time. 

I just don't think they are going to move on from Price/Jordan at LG. We will see what RT holds because the contract is cutable next year. 

[*Synric*]

(11-12-2019, 10:26 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think Burrow has plus athleticism but I don't think it's elite. I'd put it similar to a guy like Baker Mayfield, he isn't going to run away from guys in the NFL but he can move around a bit and buy some time. 

I just don't think they are going to move on from Price/Jordan at LG. We will see what RT holds because the contract is cutable next year. 

As you've said there will likely be options at the top of the second round especially the first few picks. Jedrick Wills might slide cuz hes only played RT but I dont think it will happen. Another guy I like is there is the TCU kid Lucas Niang...he reminds me of Andre Smith but with alot more edge to his game.

[Catmandude123]

(11-12-2019, 10:26 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think Burrow has plus athleticism but I don't think it's elite. I'd put it similar to a guy like Baker Mayfield, he isn't going to run away from guys in the NFL but he can move around a bit and buy some time. 

I just don't think they are going to move on from Price/Jordan at LG. We will see what RT holds because the contract is cutable next year. 

I'll be honest the only game I have seen Burrow play in was LSU vs Bama but he one drawback I saw was him wanting to challenge defenders instead of giving himself up by sliding. If he plays like that in the NFL he won't last long.

[Au165]

(11-12-2019, 11:31 AM)Catmandude123 Wrote: I'll be honest the only game I have seen Burrow play in was LSU vs Bama but he one drawback I saw was him wanting to challenge defenders instead of giving himself up by sliding. If he plays like that in the NFL he won't last long.

That is just his attitude on the field as a whole. I think there is a bit of hubris to him that some coaches will like and some won't. I think he will remind some people of Baker Mayfield attitude wise. I think others will question how he handles adversity as he hasn't handled much this year.