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Seahawks at 49ers (49ers -10)
Chargers at Jaguars (Jaguars +1.5)
Dolphins at Bills (Bills -10.5)
Giants at Vikings (Vikings -3)
Ravens at Bengals (Bengals -6.5)
Cowboys at Buccaneers (Buccaneers +3)
What's everyone thinking?
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(01-10-2023, 09:12 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Seahawks at 49ers (49ers -10)
Chargers at Jaguars (Jaguars +1.5)
Dolphins at Bills (Bills -10.5)
Giants at Vikings (Vikings -3)
Ravens at Bengals (Bengals -6.5)
Cowboys at Buccaneers (Buccaneers +3)
What's everyone thinking?
Bengals line has moved to 8 to 8.5 on most books. I saw one that had it at 7.5 and another that had it at 9.5.
As for the others, no home team has ever lost in the WC round when favored by 10 or more. Home teams favored by a FG in the WC round are just 11-13 all-time, and just 1-7 in the last 8.
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(01-11-2023, 08:44 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Bengals line has moved to 8 to 8.5 on most books. I saw one that had it at 7.5 and another that had it at 9.5.
Presumably as the week goes on with less chance of Lamar?
Fanduel has it now...
Seahawks at 49ers (49ers -9.5)
Chargers at Jaguars (Jaguars +2.5)
Dolphins at Bills (Bills -13.5)
Giants at Vikings (Vikings -3)
Ravens at Bengals (Bengals -8.5)
Cowboys at Buccaneers (Buccaneers +2.5)
... I put a small amount on trying to guess all of the games based off my first post, and I had 49ers, Jags, Bills, Vikings, Bengals, Cowboys and it was +4611, I took a smaller bet on the same picks but removing the Vikings game and Cowboys game (so I didn't have to bet on Cousins and Prescott) and it was +1206.
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(01-11-2023, 08:44 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Bengals line has moved to 8 to 8.5 on most books. I saw one that had it at 7.5 and another that had it at 9.5.
As for the others, no home team has ever lost in the WC round when favored by 10 or more. Home teams favored by a FG in the WC round are just 11-13 all-time, and just 1-7 in the last 8.
If you make a bet on Tuesday for Bengals at -6.5 but then it moves to -8 on Wednesday, are you locked in at -6.5 or does your bet adjust?
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(01-11-2023, 10:11 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: If you make a bet on Tuesday for Bengals at -6.5 but then it moves to -8 on Wednesday, are you locked in at -6.5 or does your bet adjust?
Your bet is locked in on the line you placed the bet on at the time.
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I was bored last night so did an 8 leg parlay. $5 bet to win $327.81 if:
Giants/Vikings under 48.5
Giants win
Chargers/jags under 47.5
Jags win
49rs win
Bills win
Bengals win
Bucks win
Probably dumb as hell but it will be fun seeing how long it lasts.
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(01-11-2023, 10:18 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I was bored last night so did an 8 leg parlay. $5 bet to win $327.81 if:
Giants/Vikings under 48.5
Giants win
Chargers/jags under 47.5
Jags win
49rs win
Bills win
Bengals win
Bucks win
Probably dumb as hell but it will be fun seeing how long it lasts.
Not bad, IMO. I think there's a decent chance all 6 straight ups happen.
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(01-11-2023, 10:24 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Not bad, IMO. I think there's a decent chance all 6 straight ups happen.
In Dog math, I have a 68.75% chance. Woof Woof! 
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(01-11-2023, 10:18 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I was bored last night so did an 8 leg parlay. $5 bet to win $327.81 if:
Giants/Vikings under 48.5
Giants win
Chargers/jags under 47.5
Jags win
49rs win
Bills win
Bengals win
Bucks win
Probably dumb as hell but it will be fun seeing how long it lasts.
I've seen people thinking this a good amount, but I just can't bring myself to bet on Daniel Jones even if the alternative is Kirk Cousins.
Does look like it could certainly happen, though.
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(01-11-2023, 10:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I've seen people thinking this a good amount, but I just can't bring myself to bet on Daniel Jones even if the alternative is Kirk Cousins.
Does look like it could certainly happen, though.
Home teams favored by 3 in WC have been horrible over the last few years. Maybe the Vikes change that, but if I was going to put money on a dog outright, it would be this game for sure.
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(01-11-2023, 10:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I've seen people thinking this a good amount, but I just can't bring myself to bet on Daniel Jones even if the alternative is Kirk Cousins.
Does look like it could certainly happen, though.
Felt like I had to pick an upset. So hoping Jones karma with Hodgins and James continues and Barkley has a good game.
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(01-11-2023, 10:35 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Home teams favored by 3 in WC have been horrible over the last few years. Maybe the Vikes change that, but if I was going to put money on a dog, I think it would be this game for sure.
(01-11-2023, 10:40 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Felt like I had to pick an upset. So hoping Jones karma with Hodgins and James continues and Barkley has a good game.
Jags are a dog and I like them straight up, let alone the +2.5 they're getting.
Heck, even Tom Brady is a dog this week and he can always tap into some of that Tom Brady magic. It was only Carolina and Atlanta, but he looked like he made a comeback the last 2 weeks.
I'm just hoping that the 7 seeds get absolutely blasted out of the first round in a massive landslide. Hopefully if we get a couple more years of that they can just get rid of the 7 seed entirely. I know it's highly unlikely they do because $, but it's such a watered down result.
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(01-11-2023, 10:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Jags are a dog and I like them straight up, let alone the +2.5 they're getting.
Heck, even Tom Brady is a dog this week and he can always tap into some of that Tom Brady magic. It was only Carolina and Atlanta, but he looked like he made a comeback the last 2 weeks.
I'm just hoping that the 7 seeds get absolutely blasted out of the first round in a massive landslide. Hopefully if we get a couple more years of that they can just get rid of the 7 seed entirely. I know it's highly unlikely they do because $, but it's such a watered down result.
Man, that Cowboys - Bucs game is a tough one. Don't have any confidence in either team really.
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(01-11-2023, 10:18 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I was bored last night so did an 8 leg parlay. $5 bet to win $327.81 if:
Giants/Vikings under 48.5
Giants win
Chargers/jags under 47.5
Jags win
49rs win
Bills win
Bengals win
Bucks win
Probably dumb as hell but it will be fun seeing how long it lasts.
Oh well.
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(01-15-2023, 01:17 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Oh well.
I sure as hell didn't see the Jags - Chargers putting up 61. I figured it would be a 24-20 type of game.
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(01-15-2023, 02:35 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: I sure as hell didn't see the Jags - Chargers putting up 61. I figured it would be a 24-20 type of game.
Yep. My thoughts also. Damn that was one fun game to watch.
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(01-11-2023, 08:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: ... I put a small amount on trying to guess all of the games based off my first post, and I had 49ers, Jags, Bills, Vikings, Bengals, Cowboys and it was +4611, I took a smaller bet on the same picks but removing the Vikings game and Cowboys game (so I didn't have to bet on Cousins and Prescott) and it was +1206.
Still alive! 49ers and Jags both covered.
The smaller bet with just 49ers, Jags, Bills, and Bengals all covering feels REALLY good now as I think the Jags were the only somewhat question mark there.
Still not supremely confident in both the Vikings and the Cowboys covering. If the Bills cover the early game tomorrow, that cash out option is going to look mighty tempting. Of course with my luck I will take it, they'll both cover, and I will be left wishing I had stuck with it. Lol
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I accidentally entered a round robin. Thought I was betting $5 but was betting $30. I guess the upside is if one of my picks are wrong, I can still earn money. I don’t fully understand it but my picks are:
Richly James over 40+ yds
Giants/Vikings overtime? NO.
Daniel Jones over240 yds
Trenton Irwin over 7.5yds receiving
Bengals/Ravens overtime? NO
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(01-15-2023, 02:55 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I accidentally entered a round robin. Thought I was betting $5 but was betting $30. I guess the upside is if one of my picks are wrong, I can still earn money. I don’t fully understand it but my picks are:
Richly James over 40+ yds
Giants/Vikings overtime? NO.
Daniel Jones over240 yds
Trenton Irwin over 7.5yds receiving
Bengals/Ravens overtime? NO
That's an interesting one.
I have absolutely no idea how the round robins work in betting.
- - - - -
EDIT: An interesting grab to add if you're looking for something.. Samaje Perine rushing yard O/U is 17.5 and he's went over that in 7 of the last 8 games. It's a pretty good bet even on it's own as it's +100, so even money.
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Bills squeaking past the Dolphins because Allen forgot how to play football for two long stretches killed a whole lot of parlays today. Lol
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