(04-29-2020, 05:38 PM)samhain Wrote: It's all a really strange groupthink.  The scariest part is that I'm friends with people I'd otherwise consider fairly sharp that are really into this stuff.  I had one start a convo about chemtrails with me about 3 years back.  I went along and laughed, thinking he was being sarcastic, but after getting to know him better on a weeklong business trip, I surmised that he was dead effing serious.  He's one of the ones pushing the Gates theories on my feed.  

I guess you can choose to believe what you like.  Questioning authority is a terrific thing to do.  Unfortunately, the bar for grounds to question actual authority, like medical scientific authority has gotten pretty low lately.  It used to be about having some evidence or research to back something up.  Now it's just about not liking what someone's research seems to bear out, and making up a secret squirrel story about intelligence agents with Q clearance discreetly and vaguely leaking out the truth of the world we never knew, lol.  

People are incredibly easy to mislead.  It would be a lot of fun to start one of these theories just to see who would buy in and what exactly you could make them do to embarrass themselves.  Hmmmmmm.

I think you can always question authority. When they take actions like this, it’s up to them to continuously prove themselves. When our health director says we will peak at 6,000-10,000 a day and we don’t even hit 2000, that I’m going to question it. When they say it’s so it because of closing of business and social distancing etc I’m going to be a little sceptical that they made models and didn’t include the mitigating factors they employed. Maybe that’s how models are done, but I’m sure as hell going to question it. That’s wrong by a lot.

(04-30-2020, 10:19 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I think you can always question authority. When they take actions like this, it’s up to them to continuously prove themselves. When our health director says we will peak at 6,000-10,000 a day and we don’t even hit 2000, that I’m going to question it.  When they say it’s so it because of closing of business and social distancing etc I’m going to be a little sceptical that they made models and didn’t include the mitigating factors they employed. Maybe that’s how models are done, but I’m sure as hell going to question it. That’s wrong by a lot.

This gives a good break down of what models are and aren't useful for

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/833337645

It's wrong for anyone to use a model to say "this will happen", but they're useful for saying, "this could happen". 

They may have been using the IHME model if you're referring to someone in the administration, which its creator says they were pretty pessimistic when making it with regards to how well people would social distance. He now says he hopes that, as states eye the numbers on when they reopen, he wasn't too optimistic about how long people will maintain social distancing. 

(04-30-2020, 10:40 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: This gives a good break down of what models are and aren't useful for

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/833337645

It's wrong for anyone to use a model to say "this will happen", but they're useful for saying, "this could happen". 

They may have been using the IHME model if you're referring to someone in the administration, which its creator says they were pretty pessimistic when making it with regards to how well people would social distance. He now says he hopes that, as states eye the numbers on when they reopen, he wasn't too optimistic about how long people will maintain social distancing. 

It’s the Ohio people and they used one from Ohio State I believe specifically for Ohio, but I get your point.

(04-30-2020, 11:34 AM)michaelsean Wrote: It’s the Ohio people and they used one from Ohio State I believe specifically for Ohio, but I get your point.

Everything out of Ohio is garbage, so that's probably why.

(04-30-2020, 11:53 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Everything out of Ohio is garbage, so that's probably why.

Damn, bro. 

And as an editorial, can the people saying, "The old normal is gone. This is the new normal." please shut the hell up? I can't stand these people who want to be the great seers of the doom on the horizon. This is based on nothing.

(04-30-2020, 12:06 PM)michaelsean Wrote: And as an editorial, can the people saying, "The old normal is gone.  This is the new normal." please shut the hell up?  I can't stand these people who want to be the great seers of the doom on the horizon.  This is based on nothing.

It's not "doom" it's reality.

Other countries/cultures wear masks a lot of the time.  Other countries have working safety nets for emergencies.

Other countries wash their hands more.

American's are (mostly) stubborn and unwilling to be "told what to do" but we have to learn how to learn from these events and not just be "glad its over" when it slips out of the news cycle.


IMHO.

(04-30-2020, 12:45 PM)GMDino Wrote: It's not "doom" it's reality.

Other countries/cultures wear masks a lot of the time.  Other countries have working safety nets for emergencies.

Other countries wash their hands more.

American's are (mostly) stubborn and unwilling to be "told what to do" but we have to learn how to learn from these events and not just be "glad its over" when it slips out of the news cycle.


IMHO.

I think they wear masks due to pollution.  But you think wearing masks is going to be the new normal here?

(04-30-2020, 01:10 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I think they wear masks due to pollution.  But you think wearing masks is going to be the new normal here?

I think if we have a virus like this that there is not a vaccine for it will be more normal than it was.  Older people, people with conditions that make them vulnerable, people who don't want to get others sick.  Yes.

And, I'd add, we have pollution here too...lol.

(04-30-2020, 12:03 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Damn, bro. 

That was your cue to call the Ravens the "Browns" 

(04-30-2020, 01:34 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: That was your cue to call the Ravens the "Browns" 

Let's face it, the AFCN is just the Browns and the Steelers. Browns by the Bay, Browns by the Lake, and Kentucky Browns (I would say Kentucky Hot Browns, but there ain't anything hot about the Bengals).

(04-30-2020, 12:06 PM)michaelsean Wrote: And as an editorial, can the people saying, "The old normal is gone.  This is the new normal." please shut the hell up?  I can't stand these people who want to be the great seers of the doom on the horizon.  This is based on nothing.

That I absolutely agree with. The same people run around in my country talking about some kind of "new normal" and I get mad about that as well.

No it isn't the new normal that the government tells me how much I can go out and whom I can meet. It is exceptional and for limited time only. I don't grasp how anyone can be so willing to accept that as some kind of normalcy awaiting for us. Hell no.

(04-30-2020, 12:06 PM)michaelsean Wrote: And as an editorial, can the people saying, "The old normal is gone.  This is the new normal." please shut the hell up?  I can't stand these people who want to be the great seers of the doom on the horizon.  This is based on nothing.

I don't know the context of "people" saying this is the new norm, but I don't think you understand their point.

Just like a lot of things changed after 9-11 a lot of things will change after this pandemic.  I don't know of anyone claiming that we will be living under the same rules we are now forever.  Instead they probably mean that we now live in a world where we have to be more prepared for these types of events.  We have not been constantly under attack by terrorists since 2001, but we are still living with a lot of changes that came about because of 9-11.

(04-30-2020, 10:19 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I think you can always question authority. When they take actions like this, it’s up to them to continuously prove themselves. When our health director says we will peak at 6,000-10,000 a day and we don’t even hit 2000, that I’m going to question it.  When they say it’s so it because of closing of business and social distancing etc I’m going to be a little sceptical that they made models and didn’t include the mitigating factors they employed. Maybe that’s how models are done, but I’m sure as hell going to question it. That’s wrong by a lot.

That's all well and good, but a model being off hardly indicates validity of some insane conspiracy theory.  The people questioning actual medical professionals know next to nothing about what they are saying.  People who get paid to make the projection and research epidemics still get the benefit of the doubt from me, particularly when the people questioning the professionals absolutely have a political angle to consider.  I'll still take the doctor's opinions over your people who want to say it's all on Bill Gates and 5G, lol.

It's fun to take shots at credentialed public figures when they are off on something, but that's largely Monday morning quarterbacking.  If you're in the scenario of advising public officials, do you want to do too much or too little?  Do you want to deal with the usual cranks squealing and crying about a Constitution they've likely never read, or do you want to have to answer for infection and mortality numbers far larger than your prediction due to underestimating impact and lack of timely countermeasure.  

I'll take the squealing cranks all day.  Plus, we aren't out of this yet.  They're going to ease restrictions, probably over the next month in most places.  If this thing spreads like wildfire and the count goes up or god forbid is worse than the first wave, the squealing crank crowd's argument won't age very well.  I know it's a chance that they're willing to take until they're choking on their own bodily fluids, and fortunately for them they will get to have their desired easing very soon.  

To sum it up, a projection being off shouldn't give people with zero understanding of the issue at hand the ability to dictate the next step forward.  I know that the Trumpers all think that this is over and we should go back to normal life because it was all a hoax.  Forgive me if I choose to question their authority on subjects they have no grasp on.

I hear Obama was playing golf in Virginia last weekend.

I don’t want to mislead anyone. It’s not professionals saying it (that I know of) it’s Facebook and other places. They are speaking in reference to masks and social distancing. Talking about how restaurants will never be the same again. Sporting events will be changed forever. How I see it, is we either get a vaccine or the vast majority of people will get it. Either way it ends.

I am a little confused about the mutating and what that does. I don’t know if protection from one strain helps with the next strain. It seems, on limited reading, that viruses tend to mutate to less lethality and milder symptoms as dead people don’t transmit the virus and people laid up transmit it less effectively.

(04-30-2020, 03:34 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I don’t want to mislead anyone. It’s not professionals saying it (that I know of) it’s Facebook and other places. They are speaking in reference to masks and social distancing. Talking about how restaurants will never be the same again.  Sporting events will be changed forever. How I see it, is we either get a vaccine or the vast majority of people will get it. Either way it ends.

I am a little confused about the mutating and what that does. I don’t know if protection from one strain helps with the next strain. It seems, on limited reading, that viruses tend to mutate to less lethality and milder symptoms as dead people don’t transmit the virus and people laid up transmit it less effectively.

delete that crap from your life.

The POTUS doesn't know much...

JOHN ROBERTS: The Director of National Intelligence put out a statement saying they think the coronavirus was naturally occurring

TRUMP: Who?

R: It was a statement from the DNI office

TRUMP: Oh, he would know that, huh?

R: That would be your Director of National Intelligence pic.twitter.com/ihBTp9HxVe

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 30, 2020

 

(04-30-2020, 03:34 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I don’t want to mislead anyone. It’s not professionals saying it (that I know of) it’s Facebook and other places. They are speaking in reference to masks and social distancing. Talking about how restaurants will never be the same again.  Sporting events will be changed forever. How I see it, is we either get a vaccine or the vast majority of people will get it. Either way it ends.

I am a little confused about the mutating and what that does. I don’t know if protection from one strain helps with the next strain. It seems, on limited reading, that viruses tend to mutate to less lethality and milder symptoms as dead people don’t transmit the virus and people laid up transmit it less effectively.

I see what you're saying.  I don't really want to hear it, either.  I'm getting ready to return to a workplace with a totally new set of rules and procedures just to get in the gate.  It's going to be a total nightmare.  

The public policies that people are getting worked up about are one thing.  People can protest and ignore advice if they like with various legal penalties and recourses.  These people are going to really be hating life when things really start getting cranked back up and they find private businesses and employers with much stricter countermeasures in place and a much clearer legal basis to enforce whatever they see fit to protect themselves from liability.  It's going to be tense.  Your boss can make you take a drug test.  They can take your hair, blood, and urine.  It's not hard to envision employers forcing temperature checks and COVID tests if they have the means.

I do think that it will go back to normal.  People are already fatigued by the changes.  If distancing and PPE continue for months without significant mortality or spread, it will end organically.  If the threat isn't in the public's face, they'll stop worrying about it.  People will lose their fear of it.  

I'm just not quite there yet.  I think it's a longer term process than a couple of months.    

https://www.yahoo.com/news/had-broken-tests-obama-administration-213116256.html

Trump blames Obama for broken coronavirus tests.

Just to point out the obvious, there weren’t any coronavirus test, broken or otherwise, during the Obama administration because this strain of coronavirus didn’t exist during the Obama administration thus there were no tests to detect a virus which didn’t exist.

The lying is non-stop and relentless with this POS and what he has done to agencies like HHS, NIH, FDA, CDC, PHS, etc with his political appointees is sad.