(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

(12-14-2022, 01:25 PM)motoarch Wrote: We could probably clinch this weekend if things fall right.

(12-14-2022, 01:33 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: This is a fun thing to play with..

(12-14-2022, 12:46 PM)wcu Wrote: This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed.  We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.  

https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html

This site is pretty cool.  It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics.  It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1.  If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win

Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:

1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.

(12-14-2022, 04:15 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 2 wins against AFC teams, and I feel we are in... 1-3 i feel we miss out

(12-14-2022, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: We're 4 games left and haven't officially clinched a playoff spot. Usually we start to see the "x team needs # of wins and/or # losses from y and z teams". I haven't seen any of that yet.

So, what needs to happen for the Bengals to at least clinch a playoff spot? Besides winning out, that is.

(12-14-2022, 02:29 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Nope. 

The best we can do is be up 3 games with 3 to play. With 3 CONFERENCE games left to play. We could not secure that TB with 3 games left. 

And while we have the head to head with NY, in certain 3 team scenarios that can be meaningless. And the Pats could still beat us to win that H2H. We did not platly the Chargers this year. Unfortunately, NY & NE do not play each other again. 

Schedules: 
Bengals: at TB, at NE, Buff, Balt. 
NE: at Raiders, Cincy, Mia, at Buff.
Chargers: Tenn, at Indy, Rams, at Denver.
Jets: Det, Jax, at Sea, at Mia

I think the Chargers get in. I think they have the easiest schedule left AND are the best team of the three. I'd take them over Tennessee and Baltimore and they just beat Miami. 

(12-14-2022, 02:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Man, that takes me all the way back to when i was 8 years old...

(12-14-2022, 08:04 PM)motoarch Wrote: Eh I can't be bothered to look that deep into it.

I think Miami and buffalo make it.  Ravens and Bengals with jets pats and chargers fighting for the last spot.

And I think 10 wins will be enough as of the 5 teams fighting it out surely not all of them will even reach 10.  Too many 7-6 teams will need to go 3-1 for that to happen.

Obviously I could be wrong and there might be a surprise in there but I just don't see jets chargers or pats going 3-1.  Maybe one of them and even that wouldn't knock cinny out.  Chargers with there schedule are the most likely I think.  NE has a brutal schedule; they're toast.

(12-14-2022, 10:17 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yeah. I think NE bites it. Looking at their schedule, they should lose at least 2 more games. It's going to come down to NYJ and LAC for that 7th spot and i think the Jets have the tougher schedule. 

That would line up with what i was thinking a couple weeks ago. I just hope Miami is able to pull out the division win, since they play the Bills this week and the Bengals could help them out in a couple weeks, they would have to win out with Buffalo losing those two, it would give Miami a better division record. I'd much rather see Buffalo have to travel to KC than Miami. 

I don't see KC dropping any more so the Bengals need to get that #2 seed to set them up in the best possible scenario, even if that scenario means LAC coming here.