(03-08-2022, 08:15 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: That is actually a very valid point. Opening up oil trade with Venezuela isn't just about getting oil. It's an opportunity to undermine Russian (and Chinese) influence in the western hemisphere. It's a good opportunity to get into. Saudi Arabia is never a country I am fond of doing business with, but when it comes to places from which to get oil it isn't too bad. And then we have the possibility of Iran, which is another situation like Venezuela where we have burned some diplomatic bridges there and using this as a tool to improve those relations can be good.

I'm going to be frank with you, the US is a pretty bad actor in a lot of ways. I want our country to have peaceful relations with other nations, and diplomacy done through trade deals like this is one way that happens.

(03-08-2022, 08:29 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: rather than our own production then ? That was the question.

(03-08-2022, 08:39 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Yes, rather than our own production. Sometimes it can be cheaper to buy oil from other sources than refine our own plus the additional diplomatic benefits are an intangible asset that have to be considered. I may have been too implicit in my position on this in my previous post, but that was my intended statement. It can be more beneficial to buy oil rather than produce our own.

(03-08-2022, 08:39 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Yes, rather than our own production. Sometimes it can be cheaper to buy oil from other sources than refine our own plus the additional diplomatic benefits are an intangible asset that have to be considered. I may have been too implicit in my position on this in my previous post, but that was my intended statement. It can be more beneficial to buy oil rather than produce our own.

(03-08-2022, 09:02 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: But at what cost? Yes, it may be cheaper, but if you have to lay in bed with thugs and evildoers, is it worth it? Isn't that a back door around our own regulations we enforce? If we demand our domestic partners produce oil under a strict set of environmental guidelines, why would we purchase from foreign producers who shun environmental concerns? Doesn't make sense to me. Add in the atrocities against humanity of countries we are willing to buy oil from and I say our government sucks. Cheaper oil should not qualify as a reason to throw your ethics out the window.

(03-08-2022, 08:47 PM)masonbengals fan Wrote: I guess you are supporting the right people then.

(03-08-2022, 09:02 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: But at what cost? Yes, it may be cheaper, but if you have to lay in bed with thugs and evildoers, is it worth it? Isn't that a back door around our own regulations we enforce? If we demand our domestic partners produce oil under a strict set of environmental guidelines, why would we purchase from foreign producers who shun environmental concerns? Doesn't make sense to me. Add in the atrocities against humanity of countries we are willing to buy oil from and I say our government sucks. Cheaper oil should not qualify as a reason to throw your ethics out the window.

(03-08-2022, 11:13 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Idk what it was they taught me in elementary school. But I have been of the opinion keeping our stuff in the ground and using up everybody else's resources first meant a great deal to national security. And to this day that still makes sense to me. Non-renewable resources are finite, humans like to fight over them, why deplete the treasure pile I'm sitting on? If I had more certainty the human race could make the move to another planet and live happily ever after I would gladly blow through our reserves. But I'm not there yet, seems like we will keep killing each other on this rock

(05-09-2022, 11:48 AM)Stewy Wrote: Necromancing a thread.

With oil prices and gasoline prices staying high, I'd like to point out that many of the things I pointed to in earlier posts in this thread have maintained themselves (POTUS lack of being able to influence prices, worthlessness of releasing oil from the National Reserve) or come to fruition (industries lack of being able to ramp up production on a whim, politicians playing the blame game, etc).  

Supply chain, inflation and workforce constraints on top of continued capital discipline by oil companies, brought on by 8 years of low prices, price volatility and net losses, are still creating caution regardless of 100$+ oil and has not induced companies to up spending as the gov't has suspected/hoped.  Also continued calls by our gov't for more oil production, amid mixed messaging to the oil industry, is not instilling trust and confidence in the gov't, thus companies are not moving forward with a "drill baby drill" attitude.  Bottom line:  Big company projects are not short term so spending won't help "right now" and smaller Oil Shale companies couldn't spend even if they wanted to (which they do not want to) because of workforce and supply chain constraints and lack of available capitol.  Most smaller oil shale companies take on debt to drill, appraise and bring projects on to production.  They rely upon banks and investment firms.  These money sources are still mostly unwilling to provide money due to volatility (oil prices and politics) and because O&G investment has become taboo (except to Warren Buffet) due to environmentalists.

See this article on oilprice.com for more information.  There are many quotes from Oil Co. executives, with multitudes of links to data, other articles and quotes.  Interestingly, the article is just quoting the much smaller Oil Shale Co. Executives and not the big majors - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Swings-From-Losses-To-Record-Cash-Flows.html

I like this article especially, because it gives some insight into the "mixed messaging" that I was claiming (in earlier posts) the Biden Administration has been giving to our industry.  I won't say more.  You can see and judge for yourself.

(05-09-2022, 11:59 AM)basballguy Wrote: No dude, we're supposed to blame Russia.  That's what we were told by CNN and Psaki.  

(05-09-2022, 11:59 AM)basballguy Wrote: No dude, we're supposed to blame Russia.  That's what we were told by CNN and Psaki.  

(05-25-2022, 12:19 PM)Stewy Wrote: More:  Under the label of "Things Beyond Anyone's Control, that will affect Oil Prices"

Oil fields require maintenance and upgrading with time, especially since many of them have 30+ year lifespans. Kazakhstan a member of OPEC owns one of the largest oil fields in the world, called Kashagan.  Recent weather interruptions in the Spring called for upgrades to mitigate weather and routine maintenance are going to take it completely offline for months.  Recently Kazakhstan has been one of the few OPEC members producing MORE than it's quota vs. most of OPEC that is producing less than quota.  The maintenance has to happen now, and it is the worst time to do it, but it is unavoidable.  Over 1 million barrels per day could temporarily go offline for months.  That isn't going to help prices.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Production-Halves-At-Kazakhstans-Giant-Kashagan-Field.html

This is why blaming our politicians or even our oil companies for these high prices is ludicrous.  While many companies in the consortia are known names, turning off the taps hurts these companies, not helps.  Also no one company is in control, it is controlled by a consortia, where the highest stake holder is the Kazakhstan national oil company, which means they have more influence than the other companies to make decisions over the likes of Exxon, Shell (Dutch), TotalEnergies (French), CNPC (China), Inpex (Japan), etc.  Energy is Kazakhstan's largest money maker so taking this field offline is the last thing they want to do, but sound oil field practices require it now.  Also, these  kinds of maintenance decisions are years in the making prior to execution because they are expensive and require materials to be on hand before stating.

Anyway, just thought I'd share, because this is one that's going to exacerbate an already big problem, but you'll likely not hear about it in from any of your normal news sources.

(05-25-2022, 12:32 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Thanks for this, Stewy. Hadn't heard about this. I'm involved in our S&D meetings weekly but we haven't had one in a couple of weeks so I haven't heard much in the way of market updates. This is such a frustrating topic to try to have with people who don't understand the industry. It is surely going to turn into a political weapon which just isn't accurate. Any explanation typically falls on deaf ears I.E. "it just has to be Biden's fault". It's a lazy take. 

(05-25-2022, 12:50 PM)basballguy Wrote: Net net, you can't blame people for not taking your word (or Stewys) just because they're not in the industry.  

(05-25-2022, 09:18 PM)Stewy Wrote: I don't expect anyone to take my word.  Which is why I have made my long diatribes, and have linked data sources over and over and over.  

Taking my word isn't the problem.  The problem is as I hope I have adequately pointed out, is that the problem is SO complex, and complex beyond imagining that blaming any one entity is just ridiculous.  The problem is that most people don't want to look beyond single twitter posts and wiki's (at best) for their information.

I give the folks here on these forums, more information because some of you actually want to learn and be educated about the pricing of one, if not the most complex commodity markets in the world.  And your common "schmo" just doesn't care or can't be bothered to enlighten their ignorance, so it becomes political fodder because even the best of our press, our own Dpt of Interior and our President just don't understand it.

Anyone reading the posts in this thread, thoroughly, has a better understanding of Oil Prices, than 99% of the govt.  And that is part of the problem as well.

As for supporting my industry - damn right I do.  Everyone needs energy and are going to need energy forever.  Hydrocarbons aren't going away any time soon for reasons already discussed in this thread.  Only a fool wouldn't advocate for their industry.  However, my goal in this thread has not been advocacy.....it has been enlightenment.

cheers!

(05-31-2022, 10:24 AM)grampahol Wrote: I haven't read this entire thread..I probably will later, but something to add.. In politics for your average idiot voter in the US presidents don't set oil prices and they have almost zero responsibility for the price going up or down short of declaring WWIII and sending it all to military uses.. That still might happen, but I kind of doubt it.. I've been waiting for WWIII my entire life, but the world has drastically changed since WWII..You can thank the makers of your locally produced and operated nuclear bomb for that.. <--sarcastic take on such foolishness)
Oil prices are set on the global stage by the long line of people and corporations in the post by Stewy way back on page 1.. 
The release of the 'strategic oil reserves' in the US is intended for a domestic audience of dumb voters to help prevent panic buying and hording..It doesn't affect the price of gasoline short nor long term. It's a feel good gesture at best..
They don't mention the oil producers that go out of business and sell of their assets when prices tank nor that refineries for the most part are set up to refine certain types of oil. Some refineries shut down production, some don't and  getting them back online is a long term investment. Oil types are not all the same. You don't refine tar sands oil in the same refineries that refine sweet crude..  Those kinds of refineries are hard to find and I'm not sure there are ANY in Texas though I could be wrong on that part. Tar sands pipeline was a joke.. It sold to dumb voters...not to mention there's only a very limited amount of it in one small section of Canada..
Short answer there is no red telephone on Biden's desk that lowers nor raises the price of gasoline at the pump..Never was and never will be.. 

(05-31-2022, 10:24 AM)grampahol Wrote: I haven't read this entire thread..I probably will later, but something to add.. In politics for your average idiot voter in the US presidents don't set oil prices and they have almost zero responsibility for the price going up or down short of declaring WWIII and sending it all to military uses.. That still might happen, but I kind of doubt it.. I've been waiting for WWIII my entire life, but the world has drastically changed since WWII..You can thank the makers of your locally produced and operated nuclear bomb for that.. <--sarcastic take on such foolishness)
Oil prices are set on the global stage by the long line of people and corporations in the post by Stewy way back on page 1.. 
The release of the 'strategic oil reserves' in the US is intended for a domestic audience of dumb voters to help prevent panic buying and hording..It doesn't affect the price of gasoline short nor long term. It's a feel good gesture at best..
They don't mention the oil producers that go out of business and sell of their assets when prices tank nor that refineries for the most part are set up to refine certain types of oil. Some refineries shut down production, some don't and  getting them back online is a long term investment. Oil types are not all the same. You don't refine tar sands oil in the same refineries that refine sweet crude..  Those kinds of refineries are hard to find and I'm not sure there are ANY in Texas though I could be wrong on that part. Tar sands pipeline was a joke.. It sold to dumb voters...not to mention there's only a very limited amount of it in one small section of Canada..
Short answer there is no red telephone on Biden's desk that lowers nor raises the price of gasoline at the pump..Never was and never will be.. 

(05-31-2022, 05:16 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: I work at a refinery and can confirm everything said here about refineries in general.

You'd be surprised at how fragile the damn things are. You hit the wrong control valve and the whole place goes down. HARD. Hell even planned shut downs take awhile to get single units back up and running.

Last time we had a full oil out, it was about a month and a half before the whole refinery was back up and running, and even then it was another 3 weeks before it was all considered stabilized. THAT WAS A PLANNED SHUT DOWN. Imagine the havoc covid ran on smaller refineries who decided to shut down suddenly and wait it all out. Oof.