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+--- Thread: Baseball, luck, and run differential (/Thread-Baseball-luck-and-run-differential)
Baseball, luck, and run differential - fredtoast - 05-23-2019
The reason they play 162 games in a baseball season is because luck plays a huge roll in who wins. Over a long season the best teams have the best records, but when you are dealing with a sport where the best hitters fail 70% of the time luck plays a big roll in who gets the important hit at the important time.
Studies show that teams that make the playoffs in a year when they win a high percentage of one/two run games are probably not as good as their record, and teams that have poor records because they lose a bunch of one/two run games are better than their record.
Just last week (May 15) I saw where the Reds had the worst record in the league in one run games (6-13) and were just as bad in 2 run games (3-6). Over the course of the season our luck will change.
Run scoring differential is a good way to judge how good a team is. Currently the Reds are at +25. The only three teams with a better run differential in the National league are the three division leaders, and the Phillies are just one run better than the Reds at +26. In all of Major League Baseball the Rockies are the only other team with a positive run differential and a losing record, but they have only outscored their opponents by 2 runs.
The Reds may not make the playoffs this year, but they are almost certain to finish at least .500 or better if they keep producing like they have so far.
RE: Baseball, luck, and run differential - psychdoctor - 05-23-2019
I think since the 1-8 start, the Reds have been playing above .500 but should have won about 5-6 games more. I believe they are 2nd in league in Pitching and homeruns allowed. Homeruns allowed is significant given their home field. It is remarkable really. Votto is in a funk but they are starting to hit. I hope Gennett sparks everything.
They are playing better than I expected and Castillo and Mahle have done well. All this without Alex Wood. Iggy has to find his groove. Don't know what's wrong with the closer.
RE: Baseball, luck, and run differential - grampahol - 05-25-2019
Votto seems to be picking it up while Winker is stuck in a real funk and should probably go spend a week or so in Louisville to get his mojo back. Barnhart is starting to hit, but Senzel seems to be trying to figure out big league pitching looking at a lot of strike 3s..
Still, this team is an exciting team to watch even when losing which is a whole lot better than how predictable they were just a season ago when pitching absolutely stank, but they had a pretty potent lineup. This year is the exact opposite. If hitting picks up and the pitching holds up this will be a very good season.. A lot hinges on how they fare after the ASG..