(02-19-2021, 07:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I keep hearing talk of who we'll sign out of William Jackson or Carl Lawson.  I also see a lot of breakdowns on our cap space where people account for different signings.  But I think some are forgetting a couple of things.

Jessie Bates and Sam Hubbard are both going into their final years.  If this team has these two in plans for their future and they have faith in them then now is the time to get a deal worked.

You get a discount by signing them early and avoid a number of things that may occur if their contracts run out (Franchise tag, hurt feelings, market going up, etc.)

I think Jesse Bates is an absolute no-brainer to get a deal done with.  He's earned it, he has to factor in our long-term plans, and there is no use in waiting.  Why wait to sign him when we're in a decreased cap year, with a decreased market?  If you don't get it done now you're potentially looking at the cap to reset from 180ish to the 210 range in 2022.  You're looking at the flood gates to open in 2022 with teams looking to spend after a tightened 2021.  The market will inevitably go up.

A lot of what I just said for Bates is true for Hubbard as well.  While I don't think he's as important as Bates, I don't you can deny that if you want him long-term then you work something this offseason.  Not only is he going to be more favorable to work with by giving him security a year early, he's not coming off a strong year.  The price he will cost in 2021 may very well skyrocket in 2022.

If I'm the Bengals I get both of these done.  And I wouldn't even consider signing William Jackson, unless he's looking for a sub 8 mil per deal.  I also wouldn't consider tagging Lawson either.  While I would like to have him, paying top 5 DE money is absolutely absurd.  

So I guess the question remains do you want to pay Lawson higher end money on a long-term vs. Hubbard at a discount?  Or do you work long-term deals for both DE's in one offseason?

I'll stop rambling, but I do think we really need to consider what happens with these two this offseason more than we currently do in our conversations about cap space.

(02-19-2021, 07:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You can sign an extension now without adding much to the 2021 cap space.

(02-19-2021, 07:52 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Yes, I'm aware.

Usually you'll see some level of front-loading a bit though (See Mixon's extra couple million tacked on to his 2020 hit because we split the bonus up over all 5 years).  And I think these two play greatly into determining how we approach Jackson and Lawson.

Even if these guys don't see a huge bump this year in their cap hit you're still going to see that bill due moving forward, and that's going to affect other long-term deals.

(02-19-2021, 07:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I keep hearing talk of who we'll sign out of William Jackson or Carl Lawson.  I also see a lot of breakdowns on our cap space where people account for different signings.  But I think some are forgetting a couple of things.

Jessie Bates and Sam Hubbard are both going into their final years.  If this team has these two in plans for their future and they have faith in them then now is the time to get a deal worked.

You get a discount by signing them early and avoid a number of things that may occur if their contracts run out (Franchise tag, hurt feelings, market going up, etc.)

I think Jesse Bates is an absolute no-brainer to get a deal done with.  He's earned it, he has to factor in our long-term plans, and there is no use in waiting.  Why wait to sign him when we're in a decreased cap year, with a decreased market?  If you don't get it done now you're potentially looking at the cap to reset from 180ish to the 210 range in 2022.  You're looking at the flood gates to open in 2022 with teams looking to spend after a tightened 2021.  The market will inevitably go up.

A lot of what I just said for Bates is true for Hubbard as well.  While I don't think he's as important as Bates, I don't you can deny that if you want him long-term then you work something this offseason.  Not only is he going to be more favorable to work with by giving him security a year early, he's not coming off a strong year.  The price he will cost in 2021 may very well skyrocket in 2022.

If I'm the Bengals I get both of these done.  And I wouldn't even consider signing William Jackson, unless he's looking for a sub 8 mil per deal.  I also wouldn't consider tagging Lawson either.  While I would like to have him, paying top 5 DE money is absolutely absurd.  

So I guess the question remains do you want to pay Lawson higher end money on a long-term vs. Hubbard at a discount?  Or do you work long-term deals for both DE's in one offseason?

I'll stop rambling, but I do think we really need to consider what happens with these two this offseason more than we currently do in our conversations about cap space.

(02-20-2021, 01:18 AM)jason Wrote: I'm still ok with not overpaying the shiniest turd on the D line, and a decent CB (who quite frankly hasn't lived up to his draft position). Throw that money at the O line, and skill positions and try and outscore opponents. Defense plays with their hands tied anyway.

But hell yes; Bates needs re-upped.

(02-19-2021, 07:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You can sign an extension now without adding much to the 2021 cap space.

(02-22-2021, 10:43 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: we could but why would the player want such a thing?

(02-22-2021, 10:43 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: we could but why would the player want such a thing?

(02-22-2021, 10:58 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: What he's saying is that with an extension (vs. a new FA contract) is that the increases in base pay don't begin until the following year.  Any player that is "extended" still has a year (or more) of their existing contract left on the books.

Take Joe Mixon's contract for example...

2020 - 3.9 mil (last year of rookie deal)
2021 - 8.1 mil
2022 - 11.5 mil
2023 - 12.9 mil
2024  - 13.1 mil

We gave him an extension that basically begins 2021.  His 2020 number went slightly up (by 2 mil) because we spread the signing bonus across the 5 years.

Why would the player do it?  Well, for security.  They get a signing bonus and guaranteed money.  In Mixon's case he got 10 million dollars to sign his extension.  He's also locked himself into a significant pay raise once his rookie deal expired.  They do it for security.

The alternative is to play out your rookie deal, with no extra money, and somehow hope that a.) you don't get hurt and b.) your value increases.  That's really risky.

(02-22-2021, 10:43 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: we could but why would the player want such a thing?

(02-19-2021, 07:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I keep hearing talk of who we'll sign out of William Jackson or Carl Lawson.  I also see a lot of breakdowns on our cap space where people account for different signings.  But I think some are forgetting a couple of things.

Jessie Bates and Sam Hubbard are both going into their final years.  If this team has these two in plans for their future and they have faith in them then now is the time to get a deal worked.

You get a discount by signing them early and avoid a number of things that may occur if their contracts run out (Franchise tag, hurt feelings, market going up, etc.)

I think Jesse Bates is an absolute no-brainer to get a deal done with.  He's earned it, he has to factor in our long-term plans, and there is no use in waiting.  Why wait to sign him when we're in a decreased cap year, with a decreased market?  If you don't get it done now you're potentially looking at the cap to reset from 180ish to the 210 range in 2022.  You're looking at the flood gates to open in 2022 with teams looking to spend after a tightened 2021.  The market will inevitably go up.

A lot of what I just said for Bates is true for Hubbard as well.  While I don't think he's as important as Bates, I don't you can deny that if you want him long-term then you work something this offseason.  Not only is he going to be more favorable to work with by giving him security a year early, he's not coming off a strong year.  The price he will cost in 2021 may very well skyrocket in 2022.

If I'm the Bengals I get both of these done.  And I wouldn't even consider signing William Jackson, unless he's looking for a sub 8 mil per deal.  I also wouldn't consider tagging Lawson either.  While I would like to have him, paying top 5 DE money is absolutely absurd.  

So I guess the question remains do you want to pay Lawson higher end money on a long-term vs. Hubbard at a discount?  Or do you work long-term deals for both DE's in one offseason?

I'll stop rambling, but I do think we really need to consider what happens with these two this offseason more than we currently do in our conversations about cap space.

(02-22-2021, 01:37 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: i just ment most players when signing an extension want a raise now...  Now if the signing bonus fills that fix then awesome.  But you are right that we like to front load as much as possible to open up options later in the contract.

(02-23-2021, 10:57 AM)jj22 Wrote: Get what you are saying but with this model, you are opening up 2 significant holes on the roster that has more holes that can be filled realistically in a year to begin with prior to losing the top cb and de on the team.

This decision (to let them walk) will likely set the Bengals back a couple years alone. 

(02-23-2021, 01:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Many fans greatly overestimate the ability to upgrade positions.

For example, I believe PFF had Hart ranked as the #40 OT (I don't put much weight in PFF individual rankings, but I am just using it as a starting point here).  Considering there is a requirement for 64 starting OTs in the league that means Hart would be an upgrade over starters for approximately 20 something teams.  So when you consider that only a small fraction of the 39 OTs ranked ahead of Hart are going to be UFA that means there is going to be a HUGE bidding war in free agency.  If a team is trying to replace one of the worst OTs in the league then they will be willing to pay a lot more for the upgrade.  That is the big difference between replacing an average starter like Hart and replacing a scrub.  The money spent does not provide as large of an improvement.

Then I see lots of fans talking about filling holes with third round picks.  But of the 355 players taken in the third round in the decade from '09 through '18 only about a quarter of them (93) started more than 48 games (approximately three seasons).  Well over half of them started less than 32 games.  The draft is a much bigger crap shoot than people realize.

Everyone wants to shit on players who are just average starters.  While I agree that you can't win with a roster composed just of average starters they are harder to replace than many people realize.  And when you get a good player who is "good" but not an elite star it is a good idea o try and keep him.

That being said, Lawsons injury history really scares me.  Not only has he been hurt a lot in the NFL, but he missed entire seasons in college also.