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The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Stewy - 04-13-2022

In the recent discussion on oil prices, one of the points I made about the energy transition is that it needs to be an actual transition and going "electric or bust" is not only dangerous, but unrealistic and irresponsible (just ask the UK last winter before Putin invaded Ukraine). One of the key points being that the US power grid and infrastructure is on the verge of collapse as it is, and is not prepared for an oil & gas future, let alone an all electric future.

Here is an article discussing this very subject from Oilprice.com with some nice graphs, statistics and dta - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Energy-Grid-Faces-Huge-Problems-Amid-Push-To-Electrify-Everything.html

Happy reading.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - GMDino - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 10:36 PM)Stewy Wrote: In the recent discussion on oil prices, one of the points I made about the energy transition is that it needs to be an actual transition and going "electric or bust" is not only dangerous, but unrealistic and irresponsible (just ask the UK last winter before Putin invaded Ukraine).  One of the key points being that the US power grid and infrastructure is on the verge of collapse as it is, and is not prepared for an oil & gas future, let alone an all electric future.

Here is an article discussing this very subject from Oilprice.com with some nice graphs, statistics and dta - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Energy-Grid-Faces-Huge-Problems-Amid-Push-To-Electrify-Everything.html

Happy reading.

If only we had started in earnest 40 years ago or so.

But then we couldn't have memes about how Pelosi is trying to force people buy electric cars when they can't afford food!  Smirk

All seriousness aside this has been an issue for a long time and there are many people will not vote in favor of addressing it because it might cost money and they can't spend government money on such things. 

I think I posted this in 2011:
[Image: 226213_2068762922722_5296123_n.jpg?_nc_c...e=627D7853]

And this in 2012:
[Image: 562088_4012580516947_980732378_n.jpg?_nc...e=627C99F9]

And this in 2013:
[Image: 530956_10200733299358895_1774611730_n.jp...e=627BDF2C]

I don't know if the recently passed infrastructure plan helps at all but it won't be enough.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-14-2022

The electric car is just not the solution, and the quicker people realize it and move on to other technology the better. Not even getting into the arguments about where lithium is mined, how it rapes the earth, how there is no way to dispose of the used batteries, and the power grid etc., let's just look at functionality. The EV functions it's best in temperatures around 70 degrees. Cold weather decreases battery range and performance. Hot temperatures cause quicker battery degradation. So maybe if you don't travel very far, and live in Seattle, an EV will work for you. If you experience North Dakota or New England winters, and have to go very far, not so much. Same for those who summer in places like Florida and the Southwest. You're battery's lifespan is not going to last as long. And it is a given that every lithium ion battery is going to go bad at some point. Now when we talk charging, home chargers take what? I've read a day to a day and a half to charge to full from empty. Fast charging stations can do this in 30 minutes, but again, fast charging a lithium ion battery shortens it's life (as cell phone makers who want you to buy a new phone every two years just love when they sell those fast charging cords.)

Car manufacturers warranty their batteries for like 10 years, but some will not replace a battery that will charge, but is so degraded it's performance is not what it was (think your old laptop or phone that only holds a charge for a couple of hours). I'd have to look it up, but I believe battery packs for vehicles are somewhere around 10K, and some of these have 3 or 4. Hence the guy blowing up his Tesla on You Tube.

If people really want to go green with vehicles, the place they ought to be putting money and resources is into the Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicle infrastructure. You never have to worry about charging it, you fill up at the pump just like a gas vehicle, and the only thing coming out of the tailpipe is water. So much simpler.....


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - NATI BENGALS - 04-14-2022

I think a giant infrastructure package could help. Hell even throw in some money for hydrogen. If only we had a president who would do these things… oh wait


We didn’t give up on the combustion engine when arms were getting broke trying to crank them. Battery technology has a long way to go. Every week I feel like I read about some new breakthrough.

Hell just today I read about thermal photovoltaic that is 40% efficient turning heat into energy.

The thing that pisses me off is the power company lobbyists leading the way on charge backs. I may be wrong but Floria I think passed a law or has one in the works where it used to be if your solar panels produce more energy than your home consumes your meter goes backward and you are credited for the energy you are supplying the grid. Well. They want to gut that. Which is something I would think is a major selling point if you are thinking about investing in solar panels. Mind you this is the sunshine state. So instead of incentivizing people to go green we will dial that down and just go backward instead…


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - CKwi88 - 04-14-2022

(04-14-2022, 08:45 AM)Sled21 Wrote: The electric car is just not the solution, and the quicker people realize it and move on to other technology the better. Not even getting into the arguments about where lithium is mined, how it rapes the earth, how there is no way to dispose of the used batteries, and the power grid etc., let's just look at functionality. The EV functions it's best in temperatures around 70 degrees. Cold weather decreases battery range and performance. Hot temperatures cause quicker battery degradation. So maybe if you don't travel very far, and live in Seattle, an EV will work for you. If you experience North Dakota or New England winters, and have to go very far, not so much. Same for those who summer in places like Florida and the Southwest. You're battery's lifespan is not going to last as long. And it is a given that every lithium ion battery is going to go bad at some point. Now when we talk charging, home chargers take what? I've read a day to a day and a half to charge to full from empty. Fast charging stations can do this in 30 minutes, but again, fast charging a lithium ion battery shortens it's life (as cell phone makers who want you to buy a new phone every two years just love when they sell those fast charging cords.)

Car manufacturers warranty their batteries for like 10 years, but some will not replace a battery that will charge, but is so degraded it's performance is not what it was (think your old laptop or phone that only holds a charge for a couple of hours). I'd have to look it up, but I believe battery packs for vehicles are somewhere around 10K, and some of these have 3 or 4. Hence the guy blowing up his Tesla on You Tube.

If people really want to go green with vehicles, the place they ought to be putting money and resources is into the Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicle infrastructure. You never have to worry about charging it, you fill up at the pump just like a gas vehicle, and the only thing coming out of the tailpipe is water. So much simpler.....

My EV gets me through the CT winter just fine. While I don't disagree with your points about hydrogen fuel cells or the lithium batteries, when it comes to range and charging the majority of Americans would do just fine having an EV. 


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-15-2022

(04-14-2022, 05:05 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: My EV gets me through the CT winter just fine. While I don't disagree with your points about hydrogen fuel cells or the lithium batteries, when it comes to range and charging the majority of Americans would do just fine having an EV. 

Every article I had read says the battery performance declines during cold weather, but I don't have one so I'll take your word for it. How far do you travel in it I guess is the next question.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Au165 - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 08:48 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Every article I had read says the battery performance declines during cold weather, but I don't have one so I'll take your word for it. How far do you travel in it I guess is the next question.

Modern batteries have continued to improve tremendously, it's one of the more interesting fields to watch progress. Their lifespans are continuing to improve and I think continued investment in battery technology will only continue to improve performance. The other thing is now they have the sensors to properly project any degradation and reflex it in mileage, so while it may deteriorate slightly you will see it projected on your "fuel gauge" so you aren't left confused if you stop. 

My issue remains to be the speed of which charging takes. If your are running late for work and forget to charge your vehicle you are dead in the water. Obviously making it a routine to plug in every night is a great practice but in practicality things happen and people forget so the charging times still need to improve, but they have come A LONG way recently. 


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 08:58 AM)Au165 Wrote: Modern batteries have continued to improve tremendously, it's one of the more interesting fields to watch progress. Their lifespans are continuing to improve and I think continued investment in battery technology will only continue to improve performance. The other thing is now they have the sensors to properly project any degradation and reflex it in mileage, so while it may deteriorate slightly you will see it projected on your "fuel gauge" so you aren't left confused if you stop. 

My issue remains to be the speed of which charging takes. If your are running late for work and forget to charge your vehicle you are dead in the water. Obviously making it a routine to plug in every night is a great practice but in practicality things happen and people forget so the charging times still need to improve, but they have come A LONG way recently. 

I think they are probably fine for people in urban areas who only go a few miles to work and back everyday and can get by with basically a big golf cart.  Other people, not so much. And I would hate to even think about travelling long distance in one.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - GMDino - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 08:58 AM)Au165 Wrote: Modern batteries have continued to improve tremendously, it's one of the more interesting fields to watch progress. Their lifespans are continuing to improve and I think continued investment in battery technology will only continue to improve performance. The other thing is now they have the sensors to properly project any degradation and reflex it in mileage, so while it may deteriorate slightly you will see it projected on your "fuel gauge" so you aren't left confused if you stop. 

My issue remains to be the speed of which charging takes. If your are running late for work and forget to charge your vehicle you are dead in the water. Obviously making it a routine to plug in every night is a great practice but in practicality things happen and people forget so the charging times still need to improve, but they have come A LONG way recently. 

That and investments need to be made in charging stations.  But, again, we could have started doing all of this in earnest decades ago rather than still be held hostage to SA, Russia, Venezuela, etc and their oil.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - CKwi88 - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 08:48 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Every article I had read says the battery performance declines during cold weather, but I don't have one so I'll take your word for it. How far do you travel in it I guess is the next question.

It does, and I never said it didn't. It's just hardly a deal breaker for people in New England/anywhere winters. Battery performance declines about 33%, which is still over 200 miles of range, well above the amount of driving the overwhelming majority of people drive in a given day.

As for myself, my commute can range from 17 to 72 miles one way. I've never had range anxiety, and got CT gives rebates for the installation of a level 2 home charger that can charge the car from empty to full in about 9 hours, although I almost exclusively charge to 80%.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - BigPapaKain - 04-15-2022

I think the biggest issue with EV is their weight causing so much extra wear and tear on our already laughable infrastructure.

Now I'd love for us to invest in green energy, but folks aren't wrong in saying it'd take a long time to wean our system off of fossil fuels; it would take a massive overhaul of our entire energy structure and would take years - if not decades - just to get the systems in place to even consider weaning off of fossil fuels.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - TheUberHuber - 04-16-2022

(04-15-2022, 09:03 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I think they are probably fine for people in urban areas who only go a few miles to work and back everyday and can get by with basically a big golf cart.  Other people, not so much. And I would hate to even think about travelling long distance in one.

Ok boomer

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.xatori.Plugshare


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-18-2022

(04-16-2022, 02:07 PM)TheUberHuber Wrote: Ok boomer

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.xatori.Plugshare

I always laugh when someone of the "younger generation" uses the term "Boomer" as if it's a slur. Us Boomers spent the afternoons growing up switching engines and transmissions in our cars, gapping plugs, setting points, adjusting valves. Today's youth can't start a lawn mower. And I'm well aware there are charging stations listed in GPS's, I just don't particularly want to wait in line and then wait 30 minutes for a charge to go another 300 miles.
s


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - KillerGoose - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:19 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I always laugh when someone of the "younger generation" uses the term "Boomer" as if it's a slur. Us Boomers spent the afternoons growing up switching engines and transmissions in our cars, gapping plugs, setting points, adjusting valves. Today's youth can't start a lawn mower. And I'm well aware there are charging stations listed in GPS's, I just don't particularly want to wait in line and then wait 30 minutes for a charge to go another 300 miles.
s

The bolded is my biggest issue with EV. I think they are a great technology to continue investing in and if accessibility can be improved, are a great alternative. However, like AU said, charging times and locations are the issue. I can fill up my 15 gallon tank in about two minutes and be off on my way. I work from home so I don't have to travel to the office, but if I had somewhere to be and had forgot to charge my car, I am screwed. Or, if I am on a trip and need to stop and charge, it is very costly in time. 


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:27 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The bolded is my biggest issue with EV. I think they are a great technology to continue investing in and if accessibility can be improved, are a great alternative. However, like AU said, charging times and locations are the issue. I can fill up my 15 gallon tank in about two minutes and be off on my way. I work from home so I don't have to travel to the office, but if I had somewhere to be and had forgot to charge my car, I am screwed. Or, if I am on a trip and need to stop and charge, it is very costly in time. 

Boomer... Hilarious


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - KillerGoose - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:28 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Boomer... Hilarious

Oh, yeah. The insults and stuff that are thrown back and forth are silly. I am 29, and I think for many younger folks it is easy to forget that the wonderful technology we utilize each day is built on the shoulders of giants so tall, we can't see the ground for the clouds. Sometimes there are opinions or concerns that are thrown out which are genuinely silly, but sometimes there are genuine concerns that people try to invalidate due to someone's age. I think most of what you posted are genuine issues to take with the idea of EV's currently. It is okay to say "yeah, it won't work for me yet" while acknowledging that the technology can still be improved, you know? 

I do disagree with your opinion that they aren't the solution - I think they are, or at minimum will have to be. There is a ton of money in the industry and advancements are currently being made. They also have a not insignificant market share of the car industry. They will need to keep getting better in order to be a solution for everyone, though. The infrastructure isn't there, either.  


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - Sled21 - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:37 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Oh, yeah. The insults and stuff that are thrown back and forth are silly. I am 29, and I think for many younger folks it is easy to forget that the wonderful technology we utilize each day is built on the shoulders of giants so tall, we can't see the ground for the clouds. Sometimes there are opinions or concerns that are thrown out which are genuinely silly, but sometimes there are genuine concerns that people try to invalidate due to someone's age. I think most of what you posted are genuine issues to take with the idea of EV's currently. It is okay to say "yeah, it won't work for me yet" while acknowledging that the technology can still be improved, you know? 

I do disagree with your opinion that they aren't the solution - I think they are, or at minimum will have to be. There is a ton of money in the industry and advancements are currently being made. They also have a not insignificant market share of the car industry. They will need to keep getting better in order to be a solution for everyone, though. The infrastructure isn't there, either.  

The reason I think they aren't the solution, is because the hydrogen fuel cell is so much better. Electric cars, even if you take the issues with the batteries and their ultimate disposal out of it, still have to be charged. In an overwhelming part of the country, that means they are still powered with coal. Hydrogen is the most plentiful thing on this planet, and when it is processed through the fuel cell you can actually drink the water that comes out of the tailpipe. The energy comes from the hydrogen that charges the car. THAT is a true zero emission vehicle. We just need hydrogen pumps. You can fill a hydrogen tank on a vehicle in the same amount of time you can fill up with gas.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - CKwi88 - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:46 PM)Sled21 Wrote: The reason I think they aren't the solution, is because the hydrogen fuel cell is so much better. Electric cars, even if you take the issues with the batteries and their ultimate disposal out of it, still have to be charged. In an overwhelming part of the country, that means they are still powered with coal. Hydrogen is the most plentiful thing on this planet, and when it is processed through the fuel cell you can actually drink the water that comes out of the tailpipe. The energy comes from the hydrogen that charges the car. THAT is a true zero emission vehicle. We just need hydrogen pumps. You can fill a hydrogen tank on a vehicle in the same amount of time you can fill up with gas.

If there were only a way to lessen our reliability on coal for electricity. Wonder if anyone has a plan to transition to renewable energy and invest heavily in solar, wind and hydropower and the like. 


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - SunsetBengal - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 02:19 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I always laugh when someone of the "younger generation" uses the term "Boomer" as if it's a slur. Us Boomers spent the afternoons growing up switching engines and transmissions in our cars, gapping plugs, setting points, adjusting valves. Today's youth can't start a lawn mower. And I'm well aware there are charging stations listed in GPS's, I just don't particularly want to wait in line and then wait 30 minutes for a charge to go another 300 miles.
s

IDK man, I'm kind of looking forward to the day when I can afford to purchase an all-electric F-150 4x4.


RE: The State of the Electrical Grid: In regard to the energy transition... - CKwi88 - 04-18-2022

(04-18-2022, 03:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: IDK man, I'm kind of looking forward to the day when I can afford to purchase an all-electric F-150 4x4.

Amen. Having a truck would be very convenient for me. But I also need to commute to work. The tech is still young and I'll have my current EV for at least a few more years, but I am very excited to see what the landscape for bigger EVs looks like in 3-5 years.