Quote:[url=https://www.businessinsider.com/author/matthew-fox]Matthew Fox 
Feb 8, 2024, 10:16 AM EST


People walk past a "now hiring" sign posted outside of a restaurant in Arlington, Virginia on June 3, 2022.Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images

• The US economy will grow by an extra $7 trillion over the next decade, according to estimates from the CBO.
• The CBO said the additional growth will be driven by an influx of immigrants.
• "More workers mean more output and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue," CBO director Phillip Swagel said.
  

The US economy will grow an additional $7 trillion over the next decade as a surge in immigration creates a larger labor force and increases demand for goods and services, according to a new estimate from the Congressional Budget Office.


The findings from the CBO reinforce commentary from economists that suggests immigration trends in the US have aided the economy in avoiding a recession, as more workers help boost productivity without causing a spike in wage inflation.

"The labor force in 2033 is larger by 5.2 million people, mostly because of higher net immigration. More workers mean more output and that in turn leads to additional tax revenue," CBO director Phillip Swagel said on Wednesday.

"As a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise," Swagel added.

The CBO also found that net immigration has risen since 2022, and it expects it to remain elevated through 2026. 

The US labor force is expected to surge over the next decade thanks to strong net immigration trends. CBO
America's surge in immigration, while a hot-button political issue, does highlight one of its biggest strengths: its ability to avoid the ticking demographic time bombs of other developed countries, such as Japan, which is facing economic challenges due to its massive aging population.

The CBO said that a large portion of immigrants coming to America are in the prime-working ages of 25 through 54, which tends to benefit the economy significantly as they continue to work for years after their arrival.  

Another knock-on effect of America's net immigration trends is its impact on the housing market, since it should result in continued demand for new homes.

 
"Because immigrants tend to live with family or friends initially and form their own house holds gradually, high rates of immigration from 2022 to 2026 will continue to stimulate construction of new homes during the second half of the 2020s," the CBO said in its outlook report.

Immigration trends are also on the mind of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who told "60 Minutes" last week that in the long-term, "the US economy has benefited from immigration."


"Immigrants come in and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than Americans do," Powell said. 

(02-13-2024, 10:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The economy may grow that much, but only corporations will realize the benefits of that growth.

(02-13-2024, 10:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The economy may grow that much, but only corporations will realize the benefits of that growth.

(02-13-2024, 10:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The economy may grow that much, but only corporations will realize the benefits of that growth.

(02-13-2024, 11:06 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: To the OP
let's look at common sense and the current business model. Illegal immigrants are entering the country with. limited wealth, limited skills, little to no college education and are unvetted so we have no idea what the US has in store for us with theft, aggravated assault and murder. We have no idea how many will make their income from gangs selling drugs or human trafficking which of course are not taxed.

My 50 year business experience the illegal immigrants will be in direct competition with lower income workers taking jobs from black and brown people. Those working off the books will increase illegal activity. Biden inflation since 2021 is 17.8% and rising each month. My bet is wages will decline due. to the illegal immigration surge if we give those in the country right now (estimated at 10 million plus under Biden) a quick path to citizenship versus a bus ticket back to Mexico or Canada or whatever country they entered into the US illegally.

If the Congress feels we need more immigrants, it would be a much better plan to allow more VISA's from England, France, Germany, Australia and other countries that we could control them sending their best. I guarantee you among the 10 million at least 20% you would not like them to be your neighbor.

I do think it is nice spin to say Biden and Mayorkas were doing the country a favor by not enforcing existing immigration laws.

(02-13-2024, 11:09 PM)GMDino Wrote: Are you suggesting that a rising tide does not raise all boats? 

That massive, increased profits will not trickle down to the workers? 

But what about the permanent tax cuts for corporations passed in the last administration?  The administration that had the "greatest economy ever"? 

Quote:Anyway, it still shows that economy depends on workers and immigrants fill a lot of those positions.  Hard to just "shut the border" and "send them all back".

(02-13-2024, 10:23 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The economy may grow that much, but only corporations will realize the benefits of that growth.

(02-13-2024, 11:09 PM)GMDino Wrote: Anyway, it still shows that economy depends on workers and immigrants fill a lot of those positions.  Hard to just "shut the border" and "send them all back".

(02-14-2024, 08:47 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: How greatly would the need for immigrant labor be reduced if we made it tougher to live a semi-comfortable life on government assistance?

(02-14-2024, 09:06 AM)jmccracky Wrote: That's a start. But, the numbers of free loaders vs the people who actually NEED the assistance, wouldn't put much of a dent I don't think. I could wrong though. Guess I should do research first lol. I'm on my way to work right now. I'll try and see if I can find some numbers, later today or tonight.

(02-14-2024, 09:15 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Not sure how many/what percentage are able to work, but 45.4M seems like a pretty large number to me.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/09/government-assistance-lifts-millions-out-of-poverty.html



The U.S. official poverty rate was 11.6% in 2021, while the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) dipped to 7.8%, its lowest point on record, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

Each year, the Census Bureau releases two poverty estimates to provide a snapshot of economic well-being in the United States: the official poverty measure and the SPM. In 2021, the official poverty rate was not statistically different from 2020. The 2021 SPM rate, however, was 1.4 percentage points lower.

The difference in estimates shows how taxes and noncash government programs can help lift more people out of poverty.

The official poverty measure defines resources as pretax money income, which includes income sources such as earnings and social insurance programs like Social Security [PDF], Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and unemployment benefits.

The total impact of government assistance using the SPM: 45.4 million fewer people in poverty in 2021.

The SPM expands this definition by including income and payroll taxes, tax credits, stimulus payments, other noncash government benefits like the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) and housing subsidies. Necessary expenses such as child support paid, work, child care and medical expenses are deducted.
As a result, it is possible to estimate the effect of government programs on each of the measures and compare how different benefits affect poverty rates.

The impact of these programs on the number of people in poverty in 2021 varies (Figure 1). Both measures are shown with consistent universes that include unrelated individuals under age 15.

Figure 1. Number of People in Poverty by Resource Component: 2021
When focusing solely on pretax and transfer income prior to social insurance programs like Social Security, 63.7 million people were in poverty using the official poverty measure. But based on the SPM, 64.5 million people were in poverty.

This comparison shows the effect of the SPM’s broader family definition and poverty thresholds that vary geographically. This infographic provides full details on the differences between the measures.

When Social Security, SSI, and other social insurance programs are added to a family’s resources, the number of people lifted out of poverty using the SPM and official poverty measures is not statistically different: Approximately 25.6 million fewer people were in poverty using the SPM and 25.7 million fewer were in poverty using the official poverty measure. This would bring the number in poverty down to 38.9 million and 38.0 million for SPM and official poverty, respectively.

However, when the value of noncash benefits, taxes and tax credits were added to resources measured by SPM, the number in poverty dropped by half to 19.1 million.

The total impact of government assistance using the SPM: 45.4 million fewer people in poverty in 2021. 

Figure 2. Impact of Government Assistance on Numbers in Poverty: 2019-2021
In 2019, government assistance helped lift 23.4 million people out of official poverty and 31.5 million people out of SPM poverty.

In 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, government assistance removed 29.6 million people from official poverty, 6.2 million more people than in 2019. This reflects expanded unemployment benefits in response to the recession in 2020. The number of people kept out of official poverty by government assistance fell to 25.7 million in 2021.

The SPM captured the additional effect of stimulus payments, refundable tax credits and expanded school lunch and Pandemic Electronic Benefit Transfer (P-EBT) programs.

Using the SPM, 46.0 million people were lifted out of poverty in 2020, a year-over-year increase of 14.5 million people. The number of people kept out of poverty by government assistance as measured by the SPM (45.4 million) in 2021 was not statistically different from 2020.

(02-14-2024, 12:24 PM)GMDino Wrote: Corporate greed does more to harm wages and Americans than immigrants do.  The these companies take advantage of them should be addressed along with easing the process of citizenship.

But I think the point is that immigrants help much more than they hurt and the party of "close the border"/"throw them all out" doesn't realize the damage they would do.

Or maybe they do?

Either way they refuse to look at actual solutions but rather throw red meat out for their followers/donors.

Immigrants built this country and continue to do so.

(02-14-2024, 01:45 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I'd bet all the veterans and other citizens displaced by migrants would disagree.  Are they just unimportant casualties?  Again, odd that you'd champion importing more unskilled/semi-skilled labor when AI is rapidly consuming jobs in the private sector.  A trend that will only continue and accelerate.

(02-14-2024, 12:24 PM)GMDino Wrote: Corporate greed does more to harm wages and Americans than immigrants do.  The these companies take advantage of them should be addressed along with easing the process of citizenship.

But I think the point is that immigrants help much more than they hurt and the party of "close the border"/"throw them all out" doesn't realize the damage they would do.

Or maybe they do?

Either way they refuse to look at actual solutions but rather throw red meat out for their followers/donors.

Immigrants built this country and continue to do so.

(02-14-2024, 02:16 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: If climate change makes the area around the equator uninhabitable. Things will get a lot worse.

(02-14-2024, 02:28 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Of course it would, but I don't think that's quantifiable right now.  I've been hearing about "natural disaster by year 19XX" and beyond since I was a kid in the 70's.  Back then it was a new ice age.  Point being I don't think that's something you can hang your hat on.  AI taking over tons of jobs is a given and when it happens it's going to accelerate dramatically.