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GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Printable Version +- Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise (http://thebengalsboard.com) +-- Forum: Off Topic Forums (http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Off-Topic-Forums) +--- Forum: Politics & Religion 2.0 (http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Politics-Religion-2-0) +---- Forum: P & R Archive (http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-P-R-Archive) +---- Thread: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) (/Thread-GOOD-NEWS-EVERYONE-Ozone-Layer) Pages:
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GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Rotobeast - 07-02-2016 ![]() http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36674996 Quote:Researchers say they have found the first clear evidence that the thinning in the ozone layer above Antarctica is healing. The scientists said that in September 2015 the hole was around 4 million sq km smaller than it was in the year 2000 - an area roughly the size of India. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - GMDino - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 10:45 AM)Rotobeast Wrote: Wait, science identified a problem...humans took steps to solve that problem....and it worked? How can this be spun into greedy libs trying to rip off poor, innocent corporations? RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - bfine32 - 07-02-2016 This should put an end to worldwide terrorism. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Nately120 - 07-02-2016 This sums up my feelings on the matter: RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - GMDino - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 11:32 AM)bfine32 Wrote: This should put an end to worldwide terrorism. I would hope it would be an end to science deniers. Or at least the false notion that we can't work on multiple problems at once like say terrorism and saving the earth. But some folks are one trick ponies. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Beaker - 07-02-2016 We found a problem, addressed it, and nature is recovering. This type of thing has happened again and again. Nature has an amazing propensity for recovery if left to its own devices. This should serve to awaken people to taking steps to allow recovery from climate change, but since that has turned into a political battleground, it won't. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Millhouse - 07-02-2016 It is a bit ironic that CFCs were banned in 1987 when Reagan was president due to scientists. Yet nowadays when a vast majority of scientists agree on excess global warming from burning fossil fuels, Republicans/conservatives tend to balk at it. Big oil lobby anyone. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Rotobeast - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 11:20 AM)GMDino Wrote: Wait, science identified a problem...humans took steps to solve that problem....and it worked? There was a lot of prayer involved. ![]() RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - JustWinBaby - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 12:03 PM)GMDino Wrote: I would hope it would be an end to science deniers. That's the go-to term for Global Warming cult. And it's hilariously ironic. I'm not aware of any other scientific field, certainly not recently, so determined and aggressive to shutdown debate, going as far as threatening any challenges to the faith with prison.... ^^^and why doesn't THAT scare the hell out of more people? RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - GMDino - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 03:33 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: That's the go-to term for Global Warming cult. And it's hilariously ironic. It is a fitting term for folks who are willing to ignore the majority of what is out there because at least one other person agrees with them. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - GMDino - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 01:10 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: There was a lot of prayer involved. God must have hated Reagan then.... ![]() RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - JustWinBaby - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 03:36 PM)GMDino Wrote: It is a fitting term for folks who are willing to ignore the majority of what is out there because at least one other person agrees with them. Every time I have this debate, and they use the same talking point jabs they've memorized to mock for the purposes of avoiding debate....I tend to find they understand very little of the actual science. The only thing Global Warming is going to destroy, ultimately, is credibility of science and the public trust of it. Because what you're reading in the papers really isn't science but radical and politicized fear mongering. The Global Warming cult is all about how we are ruining the planet and all this catastrophe that's going to result from a few degrees of warming (which may or may not happen as a result of man - they STILL really don't know how most of this all works)....and THAT part of the global warming alarmism "story" is completely BS without ANY good science behind it. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Rotobeast - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 03:37 PM)GMDino Wrote: God must have hated Reagan then.... Well...I've had it pounded into my head that he was the devil. Sooooo..... yes ? ![]() RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - GMDino - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 03:50 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Every time I have this debate, and they use the same talking point jabs they've memorized to mock for the purposes of avoiding debate....I tend to find they understand very little of the actual science. ![]() RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Stewy - 07-02-2016 I find it very difficult to buy the conclusions they are coming to based upon the annual data. Check out - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ There are maps for every day of the year. The last 7 are immediately available. They show that the ozone hole is highly variable and tends to migrate quickly from day to day. This is not my opinion, it is purely observational. Look at the images yourself. Concluding that it looks highly variable I wanted to see the annual data which has been collected yearly since 1979. The graphs at the bottom of the page represent the average total ozone and average hole area for each year since 1979. Here they are. ![]() OHA = Ozone Hole Are MO = Minimum Ozone What observations can we draw from these images: #1 - The OHA and MO have been statistically static since 1991 #2 - The OHA and MO appear to have a 1 to 1 negative correlation as observed during the spike years. This is expected. The higher the MO the smaller the OHA. (spike years, high daily variability) #3 - 1988 and 2002 appear anomalous to me. Further study should be done to see if the data should be thrown out for those years. Also they are huge spikes. Are they related to world events? Huge forest fires? Volcanism? They need to be explained or removed. #4 - 1998, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015 - all have average hole sizes near the maximum expressed in year 2006. #5 - The MO graph actually shows a steady and systematic REDUCTION in MO from 2011 till 2015. This is counter to the recent conclusions. Conclusion: There is nothing in the long term data measured over 36 years, that would lead me to conclude the Ozone Layer is healing. The conclusions I would draw are as follows: #1 - It isn't getting worse (yay!) #2 - There are likely atmospheric controls outside of the influence of CFC's that are also annually affecting the MO and OHA (spike years if the data is real, high daily variability). RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Stewy - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 03:50 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Every time I have this debate, and they use the same talking point jabs they've memorized to mock for the purposes of avoiding debate....I tend to find they understand very little of the actual science. As a Geoscientist I tend to disagree. In terms of SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY, I find that the GW community is doing good science. The problem with it however is the extremely limited dataset. Atmospheric science IS a Geologic Science. The Earth being 4.6 billion years old, it has a long history and much of it we do not understand. Looking back through history we find that the Earth has been much colder and much warmer than we are experiencing now. Historic data shows that the Earth can heat up and cool down very rapidly, associated with the collapse or re-initiation of the Gulf Stream. This data is also limited to the last 1-2 million years or only 0.04% of earth entire history. Thus to me as a Geoscientist, I do not have problems with the scientific methods themselves, but the application of 150 years of data to draw conclusions about cycles happening on time scales of 20,000, 50,000, 100,000 and 200,000 years. To me it is bad science, when a Geologic Science ignores Geologic Time. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Stewy - 07-02-2016 As a point of interest, I find this quote very interesting..... Quote:One finding that puzzled researchers was the October 2015 reading that showed the biggest ozone hole on record over Antarctica.The scientists believe that a key contributor to the record hole was volcanic activity. I find it interesting because Mount Erebus sits almost directly under the Ozone hole and has been erupting almost constantly since 1972. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erebus.html http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=390020 http://erebus.nmt.edu/index.php/general-information https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Erebus Image of total Ozone from June 23, 2016 with location of Mt. Erebus. [attachment=226] I find this......curious...... RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Rotobeast - 07-02-2016 (07-02-2016, 06:10 PM)Stewy Wrote: As a point of interest, I find this quote very interesting..... I have a headache and don't think I could handle going through the data, so I have to ask... Do you see data in the activity logs and your Ozone hole data that line up and suggest that the hole is directly related to that specific volcano's level of activity ? RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - Stewy - 07-03-2016 (07-02-2016, 06:26 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I have a headache and don't think I could handle going through the data, so I have to ask... I would not draw that conclusion. It is possible. It is very rare to be able to make definitive statements about Geoscience, which is what always amuses me and makes me skeptical of definitive statements from Atmospheric scientists, who are always wrong more than 5 days into the future. Geoscience works this way #1 - Make Observations #2 - Support the reasoning behind the observations if they are not clear to everyone else #3 - Draw multiple possible conclusions based upon the observations #4 - Support the conclusion which best supports the observations #5 - Discuss why you do not believe the other conclusion you are not supporting This is basic Geo-scientific Method. With that said, I will make the following observations concerning your question above: #1 - The part I originally quoted, suggested a Chilean Volcano contributed to the spike in the LARGE size of the OH in 2015. #2 - Clearly they feel volcanoes can make significant atmospheric contribution to affect the the OH. #3 - Mount Erebus resides in Antartica, and is within if not directly underneath the OH. #4 - Mt. Erebus has been erupting continuously since 1972 #5 - Mt. Erebus had a major eruption in 2015 #6 - Mt. Erebus makes a significant contribution to the entirety of the Antarctic atmosphere based upon the study of snow chemistry across the continent and matching it to Mt. Erebus emissions - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97JB00155/abstract #7 - Mt. Erebus emits significant amounts of SO2, HCL and HF which all destroy Ozone - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97JB00155/abstract Conclusion based upon the observations: It's possible that Mt. Erebus is responsible for the hole in the Ozone over the antarctic and not caused by human influences. However, it is likely a combination of both. RE: GOOD NEWS, EVERYONE !! (Ozone Layer) - fredtoast - 07-05-2016 So is anyone tryiong to deny that CO2is a greenhouse gas? Or that we have dumped billions of tons of the stuff into our atmosphere by burning entire mountain ranges of coal and oceans of oil? I hope we are all agreeing that man has had some effect and are just arguing about the amount of effect we have had. Am I right? |