How good can Tee Higgins be?

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 07:54 PM)Whatever Wrote: Tee ran an official 4.54 at his Pro Day.  I think the 4.43 was someone's bad hand time.

He also played 15 snaps on offense in week 1, so he did play.

He has great hands and is good with contested catches, but struggles to get separation.  That's the big reason why he fell off after Burrow went down, as Allen simply doesn't have the ability to thread the needle like Burrow can.  He's also good at generating some extra yards after the catch.  He's not a guy that's going to make a bunch of guys miss and take it to the house, but he'll get you 4-5 yards of YAC consistently, which can be the difference between moving the chains or sending in the punter.  He's agile, especially for his size, but lacks burst.  He will really need to become a great technical route runner to generate separation given his lack of speed and burst.  Ball security is an issue, though.

At the end of the day, I think his best fit is as a high end #2.  I'll catch heat for that, but his lack of burst and top end speed are going to keep him from being a high end #1.  The only Top 10 WR from this last year to not officially clock in the sub 4.5 range was Davonte Adams at 4.51, which is right on the edge.  If he polishes up his route running, I think he will dominate CB2's in single coverage, but I don't see him being able to win against the consistent double teams and/or top CB's he'll see as a WR1.

Michael Thomas of the Saints ran a 4.57. DeAndre Hopkins also ran a 4.57.
Keenan Allen ran a 4.7 at his pro day. Allen Robinson ran a 4.6.

Speed is by far the most overrated thing by fans when it comes to receivers. Tee is plenty fast enough to be the guy we need. Does it hurt to get someone faster? Of course not, but there are several things that are more important than just straight up speed.

[GreenCornBengal]

If he didn’t get hurt in the last game of the season I think he would’ve had a really good game. He got better as the year went on and that was without Burrow too. I’m excited and agree he is a fringe 1 kind of guy. Need to see a year of him on top corners tho.

[Dr.Z]

Reminds me a tad bit of Carl Pickens (his game). I have high hopes for Tee.

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 09:38 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Michael Thomas of the Saints ran a 4.57. DeAndre Hopkins also ran a 4.57.
Keenan Allen ran a 4.7 at his pro day. Allen Robinson ran a 4.6.

Speed is by far the most overrated thing by fans when it comes to receivers. Tee is plenty fast enough to be the guy we need. Does it hurt to get someone faster? Of course not, but there are several things that are more important than just straight up speed.

Hopkins ran 4.41.

Robinson clocked sub 4.5 at his Pro Day.

Thomas ran 4.43 at Ohio State's Pro Day.

Allen was recovering from a torn PCL during the draft process.

Nobody is saying speed is the be all, end all.  However, recent history shows us that guys that don't meet certain speed thresholds don't project to be high end WR1's.  Tee doesn't meet those thresholds.  Does it mean he has no chance to make it to that level?  No.  Does it mean he's statistically improbable to make it there?  Yes.  

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-12-2021, 07:12 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: In an effort to find new Bengal topics to discuss as well as being a Clemson homer myself, wanted to have a real discussion about just how good Higgins can become.

Let's remember the stats from year 1:

67 rec 908 yards 13.6 yards per rec 6 TDs

Historically, WRs take the first year to adjust and then start to improve, there have been exceptions such as Justin Jefferson last season, and even A.J. in his first year.

But normally, you see a rookie WR start a little slow as they adjust to the game speed and then things start to click mid season and into year two.

For example, compare Higgins stat line to this. 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TDs. Those are the numbers of DK Metcalf in his first year before he went off for 1300 yards this year.

Things to consider in Higgins favor:

Burrow wasn't here all season for him and he still had a 900 yard season.

He didn't play week one and had only a single target in the season finale. So, 67 and 908 was in 14 games.


Things that are cause for concern:

While he ran a 4.43 40 at this Pro Day, he didn't show break away speed on the field last season.

Route running still needs to improve.


So, what are your expectations for Tee? What is his ceiling?

Being a fan of a team in the ACC, Tee has done exactly what I expected him to do. I was ecstatic when we snagged him in the second.

I think he'll be at least as good as Tyler Boyd, and that's pretty damn good.

[impactplaya]

Tee can be a 1,000 yd WR year in year out.
What I like about him is that he has the makings
Of a "clutch we need a play now WR"
Vs the Browns he broke 3 tackles on route to a TD
Showed red zone skills vs the Eagles.
Hes going.to.get his yards on savy route running
All he lacks is that 2nd gear to create separation
It takes him a bit to build up speed.
He does a good job of waiting for his blocks to set up
He should be a 80/1000/ 10 guy this year

[bengaloo]

(04-12-2021, 08:33 PM)Tony Wrote: OBJ has been a failure in Cleveland... He had 1 really good game against WJ3 and that's about it..

I felt like when OBJ went down, Cleveland became a better team and Baker a better QB, and they won a playoff game. Of course they have a good OL and running game. Make a massive difference for the entire offense. If you have a franchise QB, a good OL and running game you dont need allpro WR's to be a playoff team and contender. OBJ was not the piece the Poops needed to get over the hump. Its when they fixed their OL and Baker wasnt running for his life, they won a playoff game and he spread the ball around nicely without OBJ clamoring for the ball every play. 

Back on the thread topic I think Higgins can be a #1 WR. Even more so if Joe has really good protection consistently. Higgins had a great rookie season despite swiss cheese OL and a struggling AJ getting a lot of targets. I like reading players 40 yard times, and they matter, but a tenth of a second difference between this guy or that guy doesnt really do much for me anymore. Look at Ross in his 3rd year vs Higgins as a rookie. Speed is a deal, but not as much as route running, body positioning/control, high pointing the ball, having really good hands, attitude, work ethic, etc. Those are the qualities that make WRs really good ones. I also think game speed and how you handle routes and CB's is different than 40 dash speed on an empty field, and feel like its been proven time and time again for a very long time as the late Al Davis would say. So I dont put much stock in pro day 40 times as I do the other things with WR's. Higgins, imo, can be a #1 WR. If we fix the OL, we can be a great offense without Chase or an OBJ type WR. Although I love Chase and his abilities, so if we get him I wont be upset. He's the total package. Just hope he doesnt turn into a prima donna. Higgins is humble, wants to be a Bengals, has a great attitude and work ethic and I love that about him. He deserves his chance to shine, imo. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 10:12 PM)Whatever Wrote: Hopkins ran 4.41.

Robinson clocked sub 4.5 at his Pro Day.

Thomas ran 4.43 at Ohio State's Pro Day.

Allen was recovering from a torn PCL during the draft process.

Nobody is saying speed is the be all, end all.  However, recent history shows us that guys that don't meet certain speed thresholds don't project to be high end WR1's.  Tee doesn't meet those thresholds.  Does it mean he has no chance to make it to that level?  No.  Does it mean he's statistically improbable to make it there?  Yes.  

Hopkins ran a 4.41 at his Pro Day, a hand timed 40. He ran a 4.57 laser timed 40 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=10231

I don’t care about Pro Day numbers. They are generally inaccurate. Allen Robinson ran a 4.60 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=21141

Thomas ran a 4.57 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22173

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=20891

On top of this, there are several guys who are top receivers that have barely broken 4.5. The difference between a 4.5 and a 4.4 is negligible, that I promise. You aren’t going to see a guy not be successful because he ran a 4.54 instead of a 4.48. There isn’t a threshold to be worried about, unless we are just talking about someone who is slow as molasses.

[bengaloo]

(04-12-2021, 10:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Hopkins ran a 4.41 at his Pro Day, a hand timed 40. He ran a 4.57 laser timed 40 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=10231

I don’t care about Pro Day numbers. They are generally inaccurate. Allen Robinson ran a 4.60 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=21141

Thomas ran a 4.57 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22173

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=20891

On top of this, there are several guys who are top receivers that have barely broken 4.5. The difference between a 4.5 and a 4.4 is negligible, that I promise. You aren’t going to see a guy not be successful because he ran a 4.54 instead of a 4.48. There isn’t a threshold to be worried about, unless we are just talking about someone who is slow as molasses.

Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 40 time and no one could cover him until he was an old man. 

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 10:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Hopkins ran a 4.41 at his Pro Day, a hand timed 40. He ran a 4.57 laser timed 40 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=10231

I don’t care about Pro Day numbers. They are generally inaccurate. Allen Robinson ran a 4.60 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=21141

Thomas ran a 4.57 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22173

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=20891

On top of this, there are several guys who are top receivers that have barely broken 4.5. The difference between a 4.5 and a 4.4 is negligible, that I promise. You aren’t going to see a guy not be successful because he ran a 4.54 instead of a 4.48. There isn’t a threshold to be worried about, unless we are just talking about someone who is slow as molasses.

So we're going to compare Tee's 40 time from his Pro Day to other guys' combine times even though everyone knows most players run faster at their Pro Day?  Since we only have Tee's 40 from his Pro Day, the only fair comparison is other Pro Day times.  

4.5 is considered average for WR's and CB's.  The difference between 4.48 and 4.54 is huge.  The 4.48 guy has the speed to maintain separation out of his break against an average CB.  The 4.54 guy will get caught by the average CB's make up speed, meaning the QB has a much tighter window to get the ball out.

[Bengalstripes9]

Tee compares well to AJ Green. He should be pretty damn good.

[Whatever]

(04-12-2021, 10:35 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 40 time and no one could cover him until he was an old man. 

Bill Walsh said Rice ran 4.59.  The official records say 4.58.  

Not to mention that was nearly 40 years ago.  Munoz's official playing weight was 278.  Are you good with a 278 pound LT protecting Burrow's blindside?

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 10:46 PM)Whatever Wrote: So we're going to compare Tee's 40 time from his Pro Day to other guys' combine times even though everyone knows most players run faster at their Pro Day?  Since we only have Tee's 40 from his Pro Day, the only fair comparison is other Pro Day times.  

4.5 is considered average for WR's and CB's.  The difference between 4.48 and 4.54 is huge.  The 4.48 guy has the speed to maintain separation out of his break against an average CB.  The 4.54 guy will get caught by the average CB's make up speed, meaning the QB has a much tighter window to get the ball out.

I never brought up Tee’s 40 time. I said he was plenty fast enough and then gave a few examples of top WRs who ran a 4.5 because you said there weren’t many. That is where the forty came from.

The difference between a 4.54 and 4.48 is absolutely not huge. If it was, John Ross would have been a god. Pure speed, and especially forty times are incredibly overrated. What matters is short area quickness, footwork and route running. You can’t maintain your top speed in and out of breaks. Chad ran a 4.57, but he was elite. Chad had incredible footwork, route running and quickness.

If you want to make a complaint on Tee about him not being very quick then that’s fine. Tee has other attributes that make him valuable, like his strength and route running. However, his speed is plenty fast enough and acting like a .06 second difference in a forty is huge is just silly. Tee has the prototypical frame to play X in this league, and a successful one at that. Saying otherwise because there is some imaginary speed threshold is silly.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-12-2021, 10:57 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I never brought up Tee’s 40 time. I said he was plenty fast enough and then gave a few examples of top WRs who ran a 4.5 because you said there weren’t many. That is where the forty came from.

The difference between a 4.54 and 4.48 is absolutely not huge. If it was, John Ross would have been a god. Pure speed, and especially forty times are incredibly overrated. What matters is short area quickness, footwork and route running. You can’t maintain your top speed in and out of breaks. Chad ran a 4.57, but he was elite. Chad had incredible footwork, route running and quickness.

If you want to make a complaint on Tee about him not being very quick then that’s fine. Tee has other attributes that make him valuable, like his strength and route running. However, his speed is plenty fast enough and acting like a .06 second difference in a forty is huge is just silly. Tee has the prototypical frame to play X in this league, and a successful one at that. Saying otherwise because there is some imaginary speed threshold is silly.

It’s not really silly when on at least two occasions he had nothing but green grass in front of him and got caught from behind. Turning sure 6 into possibly a 3 or worse. That WILL be what separates him from being a great #2/good #1, to being a great #1. Love Tee, but he won’t be AJ or even Chad like. I don’t care what his 40 time is, his game speed is still slow enough to get caught from behind after being in full stride.

[bengaloo]

(04-12-2021, 10:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: Bill Walsh said Rice ran 4.59.  The official records say 4.58.  

Not to mention that was nearly 40 years ago.  Munoz's official playing weight was 278.  Are you good with a 278 pound LT protecting Burrow's blindside?

Well I would definitely believe Bill Walsh over the guys on the NFL network, which is where I heard the 4.7 time once. I remember one of them saying he ran a 4.7 at some point. But the thing is, I bet every WR could run a different time on any given day. We all have our good days and bad even elite athletes, and just another reason I dont put too much stock in 40 times for WR's unless its insanely slow or they dont have Auden Tate's size, hands and reach. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-12-2021, 11:07 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: It’s not really silly when on at least two occasions he had nothing but green grass in front of him and got caught from behind. Turning sure 6 into possibly a 3 or worse. That WILL be what separates him from being a great #2/good #1, to being a great #1. Love Tee, but he won’t be AJ or even Chad like. I don’t care what his 40 time is, his game speed is still slow enough to get caught from behind after being in full stride.

And there were several times that Calvin Johnson was caught from behind with green grass in front of him. Does that classify him any differently? No, of course not. He’s Calvin Johnson, and he dominated. Saying that Tee getting caught from behind is what will keep him from being a great top target is just silly.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-12-2021, 11:13 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: And there were several times that Calvin Johnson was caught from behind with green grass in front of him. Does that classify him any differently? No, of course not. He’s Calvin Johnson, and he dominated. Saying that Tee getting caught from behind is what will keep him from being a great top target is just silly.

I love Tee, but you seriously comparing the two right now is what is silly. I can’t even take you seriously now. Just put him in the HOF already if you feel that way. I’m sure I can find plenty of catches where CJ took it to the house after a long bomb or open field in front of him. So far Tee has 0 of those. Sorry, for not crowning the dude the next Jerry Rice.

[Rubekahn29]

(04-12-2021, 11:13 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: And there were several times that Calvin Johnson was caught from behind with green grass in front of him. Does that classify him any differently? No, of course not. He’s Calvin Johnson, and he dominated. Saying that Tee getting caught from behind is what will keep him from being a great top target is just silly.

There is a difference between top target and great #1 as well, but that’s all I’m going to say to you since you’re obviously not willing to listen to any different opinions without hitting extremes.

[Essex Johnson]

Had a solid rookie year, stayed healthy, improved, tough minded , seemed to want the ball in go to situations he sure has the look and size to be top tier level WR.

[*bfine32*]

He's a piece. He's never going to be a Top 10, but he's going to give Joe a reliable target.