Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[NATI BENGALS]

(02-24-2022, 09:46 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: An interesting, albeit predictable, response.  Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not a fan of Trump praising Putin's "genius move".  But if you think criticizing a POTUS about the actions of our enemies is new then you're amazingly naïve or have never studied history.  It's absolutely fair to assign some blame for this to Biden, he is the President after all.  I suppose it is easier to attack the low hanging fruit, but do try and turn your gimlet gaze on the party that's actually in power.  Or don't and yell at clouds.  You do you.

I asked once. And never expected an answer. I'll ask again for shits and giggles. Other than releasing the play by play of everything russia was going to do before they did it and invaded what else could we have done to prevent this other than caving to the demands of an authoritarian madman?

[NATI BENGALS]

(02-24-2022, 09:54 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Lets see....

Trump is a narcissist
Trump is a con man
Trump hosted a reality TV show
Trump won an election
And I suppose Trump could be considered a traitor....if the last fact was true. 

no seriously?

[GMDino]

[GMDino]

(02-24-2022, 09:59 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: no seriously?

If you don't know those things by now you're the mark.

[Dill]

(02-24-2022, 07:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: See below in response to the first part.

As far as the second part, you're claiming that's a bad thing? The entire point is that Putin knew and still knows that Biden is too mentally unstable and too weak to do anything. Personally, I want countries so afraid of US retaliation and what we could do that they stay in line.

That's been the problem with the country, excluding the Trump years, ever since Obama: the US is no longer feared because other countries know we won't stand up for ourselves or for other countries.

While we reserve the right to define "in line"?  

That's a nakedly authoritarian approach to international relations, isn't it? That sounds like what Putin wants.

I don't think its a good thing for the US to be "feared," but why would other countries think we don't stand up for ourselves or other countries?

How many wars have we prosecuted since 1991?  How many international sanction policies have we led? 

[GMDino]

(02-24-2022, 09:11 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Yes. I will continue to play my role of being aware and acknowledging that a narcissist reality tv show host traitor conman won an election with the help of a russian disinformation campaign. Proceeded to lose the following election but not before trying to rig said election by blackmailing Ukraine, and then attempting to steal said election by lying directly to every American and used fake news outlets such as fox news to whip up his base enough to have the ugliest day in my life for my country as our capital came under assault from a bunch of his followers.


Please let me know how just ignoring all this and looking the other way while blaming the other side plays out.

Shouldn't have to tell you. But it's ok to call out bad guys.

Sorry man. Nothing personal. Watching a shithead authoritarian threaten me with nukes, invade a democratic ally and push the world toward WW3, and then seeing one of the two major political parties in my country attack my President as this plays out is all new.

You'd think so.  But there is always an excuse, another "angle", an accusation of "both sides do it".

[Dill]

(02-24-2022, 06:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: I love how people think this actually has anything to do with any President of the United States. We are so self absorbed with politics we literally think everything is somehow related to us, it really isn't. This is a much more complex issue than who is in the White House and intelligence around this very idea has circulated for years. Putin has fantasized about re establishment of the Soviet Union in a bid to reclaim Russia's super power role in world politics.

One could even look to timing as more of a coincidence of a post pandemic world where world leaders as a whole may be hesitant to respond due to economic implications that would arise from intervention. We do know that Germany was hesitant for instance to involve economic sanctions around Nord Stream 2 because of how it would effect their economy in an already fragile state. We also know that the EU is struggling with removing Russia from SWIFT for the same reason. If the world was in a better space economically I think the response could have been different as a whole, which is why I don't think the timing is coincidental but I don't think it has anything to do with us. Donald Trump was never sending boots into a war with Russia anymore than Biden is. The only thing either ever had to use were economic sanctions and they are currently being used at about the best rate you could hope for less than 24 hrs in.

This frames the issue well.  International relations are exceedingly complex, with many causes producing a wide range of mostly unpredictable effects.

Regarding the second bolded--this MAY have something to do with us in the Ukrainians were more vocal and hopeful of NATO integration when Biden became president. But that is too weak to be in itself a causal factor. Could influence a decision to which P was already tending.

But Putin has been working out how to regain control over the Ukraine at least since 2007.  I think his planning has been rather fluid and adjusted to changing circumstances, including the degree of his hold on power in Russia, which requires control of the Duma.

[GMDino]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/investing/ruble-russian-stocks-crash/index.html

Quote:London/Paris (CNN Business)Russian stocks crashed and the ruble hit a record low against the dollar on Thursday after Russian troops launched an attack on Ukraine.


The invasion is likely to trigger a new wave of "full scale" sanctions aimed at President Vladimir Putin's inner circle and Russia's oil-dependent economy.

A broad offensive by Russian forces targeted military infrastructure across Ukraine as well as several airports. The assault began hours before dawn and quickly spread across central and eastern Ukraine as Russian forces attacked from three sides. Ukrainian officials said more than 40 soldiers and as many as 10 civilians had been killed, and the deputy interior minister reported "fierce fighting" at an airbase near the Ukrainian capital.

The Moscow stock exchange had suspended trading earlier on Thursday but when dealing resumed, stocks went into free-fall.

The MOEX index plunged as much as 45% before recovering slightly to close down 33%, while the RTS index — which is denominated in dollars — ended the day with losses of 39%. The crash wiped about $70 billion off the value of Russia's biggest companies.

Russian banks and oil companies were among the hardest hit in volatile trading, with shares in Sberbank (SBRCY) — Russia's largest lender — losing 43% of their value. Rosneft, in which BP (BP) owns a 19.75% stake, also shed 43%. BP shares dropped 4.6% in London. Gazprom (GZPFY), the giant gas company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, was down 35%.

Russia's central bank said in a statement that it had instructed brokers to suspend short sales "given the current situation in the financial market and to protect the rights and legitimate interests of investors." That means they can no longer borrow securities to sell in anticipation of buying them back at a lower price. The order took effect at 11:00 a.m. local time.

The ruble was trading at nearly 88 to the dollar, down 8%, after earlier hitting a new record low of 89.60. The Russian central bank said it would intervene in the currency market and provide extra liquidity to the banking sector.

"This emotional reaction was inevitable, but at the same time it will stabilize," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said about the market turmoil in a call with foreign journalists. "All the necessary measures have been taken for this," he added.

The United States, European Union, United Kingdom and other allies announced limited new sanctions on Russia earlier this week after Moscow said it would send troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine. Germany said it was suspending certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

US, EU and UK officials have made clear that much tougher measures would follow should Russia invade.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Thursday the European Union is set to unleash "the full packet of sanctions" against Russia, adding that the world must respond resolutely or run the risk of paying an even higher price.

"We woke up in a different world today," Baerbock told reporters at a news conference in Berlin, adding "we will launch the full package of massive sanctions against Russia."

The Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia called for Russia to be ejected from SWIFT, the secure messaging services that facilitates payments among 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries.

"The entire international community must firmly condemn Russia's aggression and impose the toughest possible sanctions in response to such outrageous acts, including disconnecting Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)," the foreign ministers of the three countries said in a joint statement.

In a statement, SWIFT said it was "a neutral global cooperative" and "any decision to impose sanctions on countries or individual entities rests solely with the competent government bodies and applicable legislators."

Excluding Russia from SWIFT would cause its economy to shrink by 5%, former finance minister Alexei Kudrin estimated in 2014 — the last time this sanction was considered in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea

Sberbank said it was prepared for any developments and had worked through scenarios to guarantee its customers' funds, assets and interests were protected, Reuters reported.

[NATI BENGALS]

(02-24-2022, 10:05 PM)GMDino Wrote: If you don't know those thongs by now you're the mark.

Only thongs I know are the unwashed variety that come from the Ukrainian pornstars I follow on onlyfans.

[GMDino]

(02-24-2022, 10:29 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Only thongs I know are the unwashed variety that come from the Ukrainian pornstars I follow on onlyfans.

[NATI BENGALS]

Been drinking.. Sorry.

It's not everyday the authoritarian leader of russia who is an ex kgb agent and has murdered people with radioactive material invades a European ally, takes over Chernobyl, and threatens anyone who resists with nukes.















sig bet says the covid vaccine was so you can meet the aliens who fly in and stop nuclear holocaust

[Dill]

(02-24-2022, 06:36 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It's all speculative, but there are a few logical guesses as to why Putin waited. 

One reason is that in Putin's eyes, having Trump in the White House was an asset to him. Trump did plenty in his time in office to promote Russian interests (like readmission into the G7) and also to undermine Ukraine (accused Ukraine of interfering with the US elections for example). So life was good for Putin under Trump, his ambitions over Ukraine could wait. 

It's been mentioned in this thread before that Putin would undoubtedly have seen Trump as unpredictable. Trump undermined our allies plenty, and very easily could have gone rogue in a response to Russia's aggression. It seems like NATO/UN/EU/Collective West is going to leave Ukraine out to dry, as the options are directly interfere and defend a non-NATO non-EU member which could be perceived as an unnecessary escalation of the conflict to World War levels or to sanction the daylights out of Russia and hope for the best. Trump's lack of understanding of international and geopolitical relationships, coupled with his overarching desire to "appear strong" could have easily resulted in a worse result for everyone involved. 

Another reason is that Putin is acting much like he did with Crimea. While Putin's first desire is certainly a return to form of Russian influence over Eastern Europe, a secondary objective of Putin's will always be to undermine the USA and it's political atmosphere. Part of the US swinging to Trump, a positive for Putin, was Obama's perceived weakness over the annexation of Crimea. While Trump's victory was certainly more than "Americans wanting a (perceived to be) strong leader" it was a component. Putin is going to laughing all the way with this narrative being spun of "Biden is so weak, Trump would have been better!" as it furthers his desires in increasing ever more the division in the United States, and potentially for the next POTUS to be from the political party much favorable to him. 

I get that the easy answer is "Putin feared Trump", but like all international relations, it's much more complicated than that. 

A lot of good points here. As for the bolded, Hannity was making that argument on the radio today--other autocrats supposedly feared Trump's "unpredictability."  Like that actually extended rather than reduced US state power.

I find that doubtful, though. He wasn't all THAT unpredictable. He had a fondness for dictators and anti-democrats. There is NO REASON to believe Trump would have been anything but apologetic and passive had Putin invaded Ukraine while T was president, hamstringing NATO and UE efforts to resist. How easily manipulated he must have appeared to Putin/Lavrov et al. even BEFORE he let Lavrov and an FSB agent into the oval office unchaperoned, and allowed Russian press to cover the event. Putin got him to diss his own intel services on the international stage. A second Trump president, without the guard rails this time, would have helped both Russia and China, especially their efforts to construct a counter-diplomacy to combat the US unmatchable (pre-Trump) diplomatic power.

For sometime on the Right now we have gotten this confused messaging, like we're supposed to ignore invasions on other continents because "globalism" is bad, but our leaders are "weak" if they don't respond with some full on military response, rather than respond smart.

Didn't someone back on the Afghanistan thread claim that the Taliban feared Trump--the guy who kowtowed to all their demands, including the release of 5,000 prisoners and exclusion of the US backed gov.? LOL 

[Dill]

(02-24-2022, 10:25 PM)GMDino Wrote: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/investing/ruble-russian-stocks-crash/index.html

The Moscow stock exchange had suspended trading earlier on Thursday but when dealing resumed, stocks went into free-fall.

The MOEX index plunged as much as 45% before recovering slightly to close down 33%, while the RTS index — which is denominated in dollars — ended the day with losses of 39%. The crash wiped about $70 billion off the value of Russia's biggest companies.

Russian banks and oil companies were among the hardest hit in volatile trading, with shares in Sberbank (SBRCY) — Russia's largest lender — losing 43% of their value. Rosneft, in which BP (BP) owns a 19.75% stake, also shed 43%. BP shares dropped 4.6% in London. Gazprom (GZPFY), the giant gas company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, was down 35%.

The question now is whether and how fast this kind of thing will drive up internal opposition to the war within Russia. 

Playing and re-playing Tucker Carlson on Russian TV won't sway many minds on the rightness of the Russian cause if their financial system seriously constricts.

Russia has been preparing for sanctions for years. Still, I'm thinking the invasion was a miscalculation. Russia's little economy, the biggest to be hit with international sanctions, will struggle over the long hall. Perhaps P hopes he can quickly instal a puppet regime, get out, and the sanctions will drop? 

Maintaining them over the long run will be VERY hard on Russia, but unfortunately also on many of our allies with trade with Russia.

[Bengalzona]

(02-24-2022, 09:46 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: An interesting, albeit predictable, response.  Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not a fan of Trump praising Putin's "genius move".  But if you think criticizing a POTUS about the actions of our enemies is new then you're amazingly naïve or have never studied history.  It's absolutely fair to assign some blame for this to Biden, he is the President after all.  I suppose it is easier to attack the low hanging fruit, but do try and turn your gimlet gaze on the party that's actually in power.  Or don't and yell at clouds.  You do you.

Yeah. Trump is not the POTUS anymore, so he is pretty much a non-issue in all of this. If he wants to sit around the TV at Mar a Lago and cheer on the invasion like it is a football game, why should I care? Doesn't impact me.

As far as Biden, I'm not a fan. He has been sort of mediocre as a POTUS, IMO. But while he has not been especially innovative with this Ukraine situation, I'm not exactly sure what his critics expected him to do here. I'd like to hear what people feel he could have done to avoid this, because I'm not seeing it.

[*Nately120*]

(02-25-2022, 12:12 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Yeah. Trump is not the POTUS anymore, so he is pretty much a non-issue in all of this. If he wants to sit around the TV at Mar a Lago and cheer on the invasion like it is a football game, why should I care? Doesn't impact me.

As far as Biden, I'm not a fan. He has been sort of mediocre as a POTUS, IMO. But while he has not been especially innovative with this Ukraine situation, I'm not exactly sure what his critics expected him to do here. I'd like to hear what people feel he could have done to avoid this, because I'm not seeing it.

I agree overall, but Trump is still the standard bearer for the GOP at the moment.  I wish he didn't matter, but everything he says and does matters until further notice. 

[Interceptor]

Usually an invasion is preceded by a blackout/jamming of all communications. It looks like all the radio stations are up and still playing their programs.

Kyiv, Ukraine (all stations)

[masonbengals fan]

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/02/24/standing_up_to_putin_means_ditching_net-zero_818493.html

Take a moment & read this short article. Well worth it. It seems like common sense to me but that seems to be in short supply these days. Ultimately all I hope for is a quick, peaceful resolution to this situation, and send wishes of safety to those in harm’s way

[Belsnickel]

(02-25-2022, 12:12 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: As far as Biden, I'm not a fan. He has been sort of mediocre as a POTUS, IMO. But while he has not been especially innovative with this Ukraine situation, I'm not exactly sure what his critics expected him to do here. I'd like to hear what people feel he could have done to avoid this, because I'm not seeing it.

Of course he hasn't been innovative. He's an old hand at all of this and his moves are predictable. As for what we could've done to avoid this? Support a referendum for the separatist regions and agree to not add Ukraine to NATO. We tend to overlook our role in creating this problem. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an imperialistic oligarch and is in the wrong, here, but the US and Europe has gone back on their agreements and it instigated this. In 1990, both the US and NATO agreed to no eastward expansion beyond Germany with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. That was ignored and as the USSR fell, their former nations were added to the NATO roster. This is of concern to Russia as the distance between NATO, an organization really created to be antagonistic to them, creeps closer to their main seat of power. Ukraine was the last frontier in that regard as it provides a strategic pathway to major Russian cities from the west.

Now, this is the explanation coming from many folks that know this issue fairly well. There is probably a lot more to it, as international relations is very complex and multi-faceted. But this explanation really makes sense to me.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(02-25-2022, 01:00 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Of course he hasn't been innovative. He's an old hand at all of this and his moves are predictable. As for what we could've done to avoid this? Support a referendum for the separatist regions and agree to not add Ukraine to NATO. We tend to overlook our role in creating this problem. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an imperialistic oligarch and is in the wrong, here, but the US and Europe has gone back on their agreements and it instigated this. In 1990, both the US and NATO agreed to no eastward expansion beyond Germany with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. That was ignored and as the USSR fell, their former nations were added to the NATO roster. This is of concern to Russia as the distance between NATO, an organization really created to be antagonistic to them, creeps closer to their main seat of power. Ukraine was the last frontier in that regard as it provides a strategic pathway to major Russian cities from the west.

Now, this is the explanation coming from many folks that know this issue fairly well. There is probably a lot more to it, as international relations is very complex and multi-faceted. But this explanation really makes sense to me.

100% correct.  This is exactly why I've said for decades that dissolving NATO and restarting the alliance under a different name and mission would have alleviated a lot of these issues.  It certainly wouldn't have made Putin a better person, he's an irredeemable piece of shit, but every nation added to NATO was a thumb in the eye or a knee in the groin of Russia.  As I stated earlier in this thread, Russia is a proud nation that tends to feel disrespected, when it desperately wants to be respected.  They'll take respect any way they can get it, and if being a bully who is feared is the only way they feel they can get it, then that's what you'll get.

None of that excuses this war of aggression/expansion, but this all could likely have been prevented with very minimal fuss on our end a long time ago.

[StrictlyBiz]

(02-25-2022, 01:00 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Of course he hasn't been innovative. He's an old hand at all of this and his moves are predictable. As for what we could've done to avoid this? Support a referendum for the separatist regions and agree to not add Ukraine to NATO. We tend to overlook our role in creating this problem. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an imperialistic oligarch and is in the wrong, here, but the US and Europe has gone back on their agreements and it instigated this. In 1990, both the US and NATO agreed to no eastward expansion beyond Germany with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. That was ignored and as the USSR fell, their former nations were added to the NATO roster. This is of concern to Russia as the distance between NATO, an organization really created to be antagonistic to them, creeps closer to their main seat of power. Ukraine was the last frontier in that regard as it provides a strategic pathway to major Russian cities from the west.

Now, this is the explanation coming from many folks that know this issue fairly well. There is probably a lot more to it, as international relations is very complex and multi-faceted. But this explanation really makes sense to me.

Good post