Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[Bengalzona]

(02-25-2022, 03:31 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: Me either man.  I'm 58 and I stayed up all night and watched the news.  Tbh, I'm pretty damn nervous over this crap.  They have 6000 nukes now.  That's more than all of NATO has...combined.  And Russia supposedly has that supersonic technology making their shit faster, too.

Well, here's a thought that got me through the Cold War without major depression: Anyone contemplating nuclear war has to also consider that it is no fun taking over the world after you have  already nuked it.

(02-26-2022, 06:39 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Eventually it’s just a number. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe just one of our subs has the ability to pretty much wipe out Russia.

Ohio class SSBN: 24 trident missiles. 12 MIRV warheads per missile. 288 total warheads of approximately 1 MT each.

That's enough to saturate all of the cities. Not enough to do that and hit all of the military, industrial and other targets in the country alone, though. (Which is why we have 14 Ohio class subs ;-) )

[Dill]

(02-26-2022, 06:43 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: US intelligence has certainly been on point, calling Putin's moves out before he made them.

Makes the reports of Russian confusion, e.g. "we don't know who to shoot, they all look like us" encouraging. The world certainly expected Ukraine to put up a spirited resistance, but the reported Russian incompetence is a very welcome development.

Yes, also, unexpected was the failure of Putin to gain active support of other autocrats, like Orban in Hungary and Tokayev in Kazakhstan. 

China has refused to call the invasion an "invasion," but Xi and co. have to be concerned about being drawn into Putin's growing pariahood.

They are watching "weak" Biden very closely, along with Putin, to see how the invasion-which-cannot-be-named re-arranges and strengthens liberal democratic alliances world-wide. 

[HarleyDog]

(02-26-2022, 06:32 PM)Dill Wrote: I will say, though, that Biden's response so far has been competent, good even. 

I disagree. IMO, Sanctions should have started sooner and not after an invasion. If we knew the intelligence we are so proud of knowing, we should have delivered enough weapons, along with the UN to Ukraine. I personally think we should increase boots on the ground and get them ready if needed. I know they have increased troop count in Poland, but I would like to see more. 

I feel Bidens actions are lacking. Not saying Trump would do better because honestly, this is not about Trump (although he sure seems to be mentioned a lot in this thread). Biden needs to fully reopen all our energy resources and cut Russia off. In addition, we should be exporting energy to those countries which have relied on Russia for energy. However, with Germany changing it's tune and finally offering aid to Ukraine, those ideas may actually be in the works. As we know, Germany is heavily dependent on Russia for energy. I don't think they make that call without assurance their needs will be provided. 

[Tiger Teeth]

(02-26-2022, 01:44 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Saw this on The Hill in the middle of my morning media reading.  Thought it was interesting as this point has been made in this thread.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/595919-62-percent-of-voters-say-putin-wouldnt-have-invaded-ukraine-if-trump

62% is a significant number.  Normally this type of event helps the party in charge as the nation rallies against the incident in question.  I don't think that's going to be the case here.  Of course, I know some of you think that's because the GOP is being unpatriotic by not being in lockstep with Biden, but maybe, just maybe, people aren't standing with Biden because they sincerely believe he's part of the problem?  I know there's no changing the minds of the people here who think one way or the other, but I did think this poll had some very interesting results.

Just interested in your opinion.  How could Trump have stopped this?

[*michaelsean*]

(02-26-2022, 10:08 AM)GMDino Wrote: Lost amid the war going on is that CPAC is happening right now if you want to see more things the right believes that will dismay you.

At CPAC today, speaker ‘Papa John’ Schnatter says Biden intentionally caused Putin to invade Ukraine to “create a great smokescreen, to create a distraction from all the real issues here affecting Americans.” pic.twitter.com/RduMcwPgmW

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 25, 2022

 

BREAKING: Mere hours after appearing at @CPAC, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was the surprise featured speaker at a white nationalist conference in Orlando. https://t.co/1GKN2ugmk6

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) February 26, 2022

 

We watched it so you don't have to. CPAC day one in 105 seconds. pic.twitter.com/gNYEUFnEsL

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) February 25, 2022

 

Abolish the January 6th commission and replace it with a November 3rd commission!@cpac @mschlapp @mercedesschlapp @ddale8 pic.twitter.com/aqn7ij2s6v

— Josh Mandel (@JoshMandelOhio) February 25, 2022

 

Who asked? Man it’s 100% with you. Someone gives a little opening and you bust the whole wall down.

[samhain]

(02-26-2022, 10:18 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: Just interested in your opinion.  How could Trump have stopped this?

I'm not the one being asked, but even as a as someone who's as anti-Trump as anyone, I'd say his unpredictability is something that would make a foreign leader think hard about what the US response might be if Trump perceived it as harmful to himself.  

IMO Trump is sincere in his admiration for Putin and is naive enough to believe that Vlad sees him as anything but a useful idiot.  That said, depending on what general in his cabinet was doing the best job kissing his ass that day, he might heed the advice of a more traditional war hawk if he could be made to believe it would enhance his image as a tough or strong leader.  

If he's listening to Mike Flynn that day, a dude that's very likely an actual Russian asset, he might back off.  If he's listening to a guy like Jim Mattis, you might see much heavier anti-Russian reaction.  I believe it was Mattis that ordered a column of Russian mercenary vehicles to be annihilated in Syria, killing nearly 100 Russian citizens when he was Defense Secretary.  

That's the rub with Trump.  You just never know.  He might waive it off as being overreach to support Ukraine vs Russia in any meaningful way, likely taking digs at Western European allies along the way.  He might also make a unilateral decision to react quickly and lob some cruise missiles at Russian military targets.  Any decision based on his reaction is a huge gamble, because if you're wrong, his response is probably not going to be a measured or diplomatic one.

[CKwi88]

(02-26-2022, 10:18 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: Just interested in your opinion.  How could Trump have stopped this?

I know I'm not being asked, but as someone who would vote with those 62%, this would be my reasoning: 

Putin is certainly not scared of a Trump. At least not in the "I'm in a 18 to 22 ft square ring with Mike Tyson" sense. Maybe in the "I'm a woman locked in a room with nothing but Charlie Sheen and cocaine" sense. But simply having Trump in the White House was enough of a benefit. Deteriorating US relations with Ukraine, US actively undermining NATO allies, US actively lobbying for Russia to get their seat at the G8 back, US practically accepting Crimea staying with Russia, the list goes on.

Why would Putin bite the hand that was feeding him? It's impossible to tell what those 62% of people are thinking, but that would be my reasoning. This is also assuming that Putin even gave a shit about who the US head of state was.

[GMDino]

(02-27-2022, 01:48 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Who asked? Man it’s 100% with you. Someone gives a little opening and you bust the whole wall down.

Oh!  My apologies.

You said you were glad to so your "friends on the left finally" think that we need to treat Russia as a cold war enemy again and that you were "dismayed" that people on the right do not.

I used that as a jumping off point to show how Trump's republican party is viewing Russia during their big convention going on at the same time as the invasion.

I suppose someone could have responded with some information on how "the left" was treating Russia but that didn't happen.

If I broached some forum protocol or  unspoken rule please know that was not my intent. 

[Dill]

(02-26-2022, 08:33 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I disagree. IMO, Sanctions should have started sooner and not after an invasion. If we knew the intelligence we are so proud of knowing, we should have delivered enough weapons, along with the UN to Ukraine. I personally think we should increase boots on the ground and get them ready if needed. I know they have increased troop count in Poland, but I would like to see more. 

I feel Bidens actions are lacking. Not saying Trump would do better because honestly, this is not about Trump (although he sure seems to be mentioned a lot in this thread). Biden needs to fully reopen all our energy resources and cut Russia off. In addition, we should be exporting energy to those countries which have relied on Russia for energy. However, with Germany changing it's tune and finally offering aid to Ukraine, those ideas may actually be in the works. As we know, Germany is heavily dependent on Russia for energy. I don't think they make that call without assurance their needs will be provided. 

H-Dog! glad to hear from you.

Russia was already under a number of sanctions, has been since 2014. The question for Biden was how, which, and when to increase them as a deterrent. That's very hard to do, as P undoubtedly expected sanctions and prepared his economy for them.

A second point about sanctions: our allies and others have to be on board, or they will not be effective. As you noted, Germany is heavily dependent upon Russian hydrocarbons. Sanctions hurt the sanctioners as well, so their governments must be persuaded. Same for the EU, which is even more complicated. It is remarkable that Biden has been able to selectively target some Russian banks for SWIFT sanctions. 

I'm pretty sure Biden discussed "when" to apply sanctions with his NSC and our allies as soon as the Russian build up on Ukraine's border began, before deciding they would be more effective if threatened first as a warning, then deployed as follow up. Remember that Putin was claiming he would not invade, right up to the invasion. If you apply sanctions first, you lose their leverage to prevent the invasion.

So, it's not like Biden can just say "sanction" and the world bends to his will. It takes time to propose the right ones and get everyone on board. Seems to me Biden is already doing many of the things you suggest, and importantly, leading from behind with the EU.


I think you can count on it that Trump would hardly "do better." His advisers and Repubs in Congress would be urging action while he was balking, deflecting, postponing any response, and praising the "genius" of Putin. Can you see him rallying NATO? Trump is mentioned a lot on this thread because FOX commentators keep comparing Biden's response to an imaginary "strong" Trump whom, we are to believe, would get after the dictator whose friendship and approval he still desires. And remember his Sec. of State was Pompeo. 

Also, sanctions are a long game, requiring organization, planning, persistence, diplomacy, deep knowledge of how allies interact and of the target economy--all requiring a very long attention span.

Trump's foreign policy is Tucker Carlson's, so listen to Tucker if you want some idea of how Trump might have responded to an invasion from the dictator he still admires most--"Why should we take Ukraine's side? Why are we supposed to suddenly hate Putin? Has Putin ever tried to get me fired, killed dogs? No, he has not."  Neither Tucker nor Trump has shown any interest defending liberal democracy within the "globalist" international system. 

[Dill]

(02-27-2022, 12:02 PM)GMDino Wrote: Oh!  My apologies.

You said you were glad to so your "friends on the left finally" think that we need to treat Russia as a cold war enemy again and that you were "dismayed" that people on the right do not.

I was wondering about that too. 

Putin has had a lot of MAGA support from people who would rather be Russian than Liberal. 

Where are the "leftists" who needed convincing Putin was an anti-democratic dictator?

Like it took time for them to get on board. Finally.

[masonbengals fan]

Lots of speculation in that novel Dill. But it boils down to this simple question.

Remember when Putin annexed Crimea and Ukraine on Trump's watch?

Yeah, me neither.

[GMDino]

Watching the news and all the videos I have to say that while I am still against mandatory military service in this country (or any place) because I don't trust the leaders to not get itchy when they have a huge, forced military at their disposal that they are "paying to do nothing"...seeing the citizens pick up and defend their country is very inspiring.

I fear we would have citizens attacking other citizens HERE rather than uniting to fight of an enemy depending on which leader they decided to listen to.

[GMDino]

(02-26-2022, 10:18 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: Just interested in your opinion.  How could Trump have stopped this?

So as I was reading Twitter this morning I saw a meme about this story from February 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/30/mike-pompeo-aims-to-smooth-relations-with-kyiv-on-ukraine-visit

We have to remember that Trump was going through a second impeachment because he was trying to withhold funds from Ukraine so he could get the announcement of an investigation into the Bidens at this time.

Quote:Mike Pompeo aims to smooth relations with Kyiv on Ukraine visit
This article is more than 2 years old

Secretary of state arrives after asking reporter: ‘Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?’

Pompeo will try to put a positive spin on relations with Kyiv amid Trump’s impeachment trial. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA

Andrew Roth in Moscow
Thu 30 Jan 2020 10.38 EST

• [/url]
• [url=https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Mike%20Pompeo%20aims%20to%20smooth%20relations%20with%20Kyiv%20on%20Ukraine%20visit&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2020%2Fjan%2F30%2Fmike-pompeo-aims-to-smooth-relations-with-kyiv-on-ukraine-visit&CMP=share_btn_tw]
  
  

The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, arrived in Kyiv on Thursday amid a bruising Washington impeachment battle and a storm around his alleged remarks to an NPR reporter: “Do you think Americans care about Ukraine?”

Pompeo is scheduled to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday, as he seeks to put a positive spin on relations between the two countries at a crucial moment in the Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump.

The visit, Pompeo’s first to Ukraine, was important to “highlight US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, a spokesperson told reporters. That support has come into question because of Trump’s apparent affinity for Vladimir Putin and accusations that he delayed $392m in military aid to Ukraine in order to pressure Zelenskiy into announcing an investigation into the Biden family.


Zelenskiy, meanwhile, will look for commitments to diplomatic and military aid in his country’s conflict with Russia, which has left more than 14,000 dead in south-east Ukraine, and may also seek an invitation to the White House. The Ukrainian president would look past Pompeo’s reported faux pas and roll out the red carpet, said the Kyiv-based political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, because Ukraine’s need for US support was paramount.

“He can’t really complain about what has been said. Ukraine needs a close, partner relationship with the United States,” said Fesenko. “We are just in different weight classes.”

But Zelenskiy was likely to resist any efforts to have him weigh in on the impeachment battle, Fesenko added, noting that the US was preparing for 2020 elections and Zelenskiy understood that Trump was “just one of the candidates”.

The discussions are likely to cover bilateral relations and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, gas politics and the US’s sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, possible investment opportunities and the progress of reforms in Ukraine. Pompeo is also scheduled to meet with Ukraine’s foreign and defence ministers, as well as representatives of Ukraine’s religious, civil society, and business communities.

The trip is the first leg of a four-country tour through the former Soviet Union for Pompeo that will also take him to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. But it is in Kyiv where the spotlight will focus most firmly on Pompeo and his attempts to repair the damage done over the past two years.

Former officials say the scandal has hollowed out the ranks of senior Ukraine experts in the US government and reduced US interest in the peace talks over the war in south-east Ukraine. Trump still has not nominated an ambassador to Kyiv and Pompeo has faced criticism for failing to support the former US ambassador Maria Yovanovitch against Trump’s political supporters, including Rudy Giuliani.

In an op-ed published in Foreign Policy, Kurt Volker, Trump’s former special envoy to Ukraine, blamed “partisan politics” and the impeachment process for leaving Zelenskiy “exposed and relatively isolated”.

He called on Pompeo to propose a state visit for Zelenskiy to the White House, a carrot that the Trump administration had previously dangled before him, and to appoint a new ambassador and point person for future Ukraine negotiations, to help replenish the expertise lost in the last year.

[/url]

Video appears to show Trump ordering Marie Yovanovitch's removal

Read more
[url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/26/video-appears-to-show-trump-ordering-marie-yovanovitch-removal-ukraine-ambassador]

“Partisan politics, and in particular the impeachment process, caused most officials dealing with expertise on Ukraine either to leave government or hunker down to avoid getting caught in the crossfire,” he wrote.

While Pompeo’s visit could be beneficial, “the Trump administration has withheld high-level contacts for entirely wrong-headed reasons and made milestones like Pompeo’s visit to Ukraine far more the exception than the rule”, said Andrew Weiss, the vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“They’ve left Ukraine alone in the room with both Moscow and Europe and having to fend for themselves,” he said.

Add in that Trump left a LOT of important positions unfilled or filled with temporarily appointed people who would agree with him or get fired immediately.

Trump didn't care about Ukraine...or really anything.  So what he might have done was hold a bunch of press conferences where he said he trusted Putin and that they had a very good relationship ("Putin really likes me") and that he know Putin is strong and will do what his best for his country.  Then he would have called any question about that "stupid" and berated people not understanding that he is always right.

Or something like that.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(02-26-2022, 10:18 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: Just interested in your opinion.  How could Trump have stopped this?

Samhain largely hit on my response already.  I don't think Trump would have had to stop it because it wouldn't have happened on his watch IMO.  As stated, he is vain and mercurial.  He also has a very fragile go.  There's absolutely no telling how he'd respond to this kind of action, and the last thing you want when making this type of move is an unpredictable hand on the lever of the world's most powerful military by a large margin.  You'll note that none of this is due to any competence on Trump's part.  

[GMDino]

Steve Bannon brings on his “International Editor” to say that Greta Thunberg is responsible for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gZWSZ6kFmt

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) February 27, 2022

[GMDino]

Two presidents meet with their respective defence ministers. pic.twitter.com/R16wtp6B8C

— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) February 27, 2022

[Bengalzona]

They have agreed to talks. I think this is always where this was heading anyway.

Putin has also put his nuclear forces on alert. Clearly, that is solely to threaten the West. I think it also smacks of desperation. I suspect it has to do with appearing strong for the negotiations. Especially since the Ukrainians have been taking his poor conscripts to task.



https://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/

[BigPapaKain]

(02-27-2022, 01:10 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Samhain largely hit on my response already.  I don't think Trump would have had to stop it because it wouldn't have happened on his watch IMO.  As stated, he is vain and mercurial.  He also has a very fragile go.  There's absolutely no telling how he'd respond to this kind of action, and the last thing you want when making this type of move is an unpredictable hand on the lever of the world's most powerful military by a large margin.  You'll note that none of this is due to any competence on Trump's part.  

Yeah it probably wouldn't have happened the same with Trump.

There would've been American boots on the ground in Ukraine if he was still in charge if his statements on the matter are any indication.

[masonbengals fan]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-invades-ukraine-furious-russian-president-reportedly-holed-up-in-mountain-lair/NZT7M77YGRNSF544R2PTDPDL6Q/
Pretty good coverage here.

[GMDino]

NSFW...language.

But...wow.

Message to Russian troops from Kyiv's Defenders. pic.twitter.com/mac42RziS9

— UkraineEnglishUpdates (@EnglishUkraine) February 27, 2022