Roe Vs Wade Overturned

[StoneTheCrow]

(07-02-2022, 04:10 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Honestly at this point I'm waiting for someone to come in here and say it's 'left wing media nonsense edited to make them look bad' or some other brain rot inducing comment along those lines.

I mean, it is a WaPo link.

Really that line of thinking out of that rep is the actual brain rot. Not only is it a horrific event for someone, but here…have a lifelong reminder of said event. I’m sure all parties will end up well adjusted as a result.

[BigPapaKain]

(07-02-2022, 04:19 PM)StoneTheCrow Wrote: I mean, it is a WaPo link.

Really that line of thinking out of that rep is the actual brain rot. Not only is it a horrific event for someone, but here…have a lifelong reminder of said event. I’m sure all parties will end up well adjusted as a result.

Which is why I'm waiting for it. I tried finding a more conservative article about it, but I don't want that shit in my cookies (I don't want WaPo either, but what are you gonna do).

I'm sure you won't have to dig too deep to find the stories of children born of rape. I'm sure you won't have to dig too deep to find a bunch of horror stories that kid went through, either.

[samhain]

(07-02-2022, 05:30 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Which is why I'm waiting for it. I tried finding a more conservative article about it, but I don't want that shit in my cookies (I don't want WaPo either, but what are you gonna do).

I'm sure you won't have to dig too deep to find the stories of children born of rape. I'm sure you won't have to dig too deep to find a bunch of horror stories that kid went through, either.

It only took a week for a real-life horror story to emerge post-ruling.  This is the kind of thing that the public wasn't really used to hearing about in the Roe era.  1 week.  This is our new reality.  The anti-abortion portion of our population will paint this as a tiny percentage of the cumulative total of abortions in the US, and they're not factually wrong.  Even so, it's something so repulsive and against our societal norms, that even a few cases will have an impact on public opinion.  

It's really surreal to see conservative reactions in local media post-Roe.  Most of my life, I assumed that the right would be dancing in the streets if something like this ever came to pass.  That's not the case at all IMO.  Our local right-wing radio is extremely cautious about their characterization of the impact the ruling will have on women and the country in general.  

Both Mike Allen, a hard-right ex Cincinnati prosecutor, and cop (also die-hard MAGA ball-licker) and Bill Cunningham, a guy that's basically the standard of Cincinnati conservative talk radio have been very careful in their reactions.  Allen spent much of his show guaranteeing listeners that gay marriage and birth control would never be outlawed, while Cunningham (an attorney by trade) stressed emphatically that it would be unthinkable for women to be prosecuted for having the procedure in another state.  

The line on the non-insane right seems to be that abortion is still legal, as they repeat it ad infinitum.  

I think they fear that this is no good at all for the Republican Party.  There's value in being the hunter and not the hunted.  They have lost that.  The rape and juvenile pregnancy stories will continue to emerge from the woodwork, and the right will be blamed for every one of them.  They own it.  They asked for it for 50 years.  This is the kind of thing that allows a Democratic Party to cling to life in midterms, even with a president that is by all definitions a failure.  

[BigPapaKain]

(07-02-2022, 08:24 PM)samhain Wrote: It only took a week for a real-life horror story to emerge post-ruling.  This is the kind of thing that the public wasn't really used to hearing about in the Roe era.  1 week.  This is our new reality.  The anti-abortion portion of our population will paint this as a tiny percentage of the cumulative total of abortions in the US, and they're not factually wrong.  Even so, it's something so repulsive and against our societal norms, that even a few cases will have an impact on public opinion.  

It's really surreal to see conservative reactions in local media post-Roe.  Most of my life, I assumed that the right would be dancing in the streets if something like this ever came to pass.  That's not the case at all IMO.  Our local right-wing radio is extremely cautious about their characterization of the impact the ruling will have on women and the country in general.  

Both Mike Allen, a hard-right ex Cincinnati prosecutor, and cop (also die-hard MAGA ball-licker) and Bill Cunningham, a guy that's basically the standard of Cincinnati conservative talk radio have been very careful in their reactions.  Allen spent much of his show guaranteeing listeners that gay marriage and birth control would never be outlawed, while Cunningham (an attorney by trade) stressed emphatically that it would be unthinkable for women to be prosecuted for having the procedure in another state.  

The line on the non-insane right seems to be that abortion is still legal, as they repeat it ad infinitum.  

I think they fear that this is no good at all for the Republican Party.  There's value in being the hunter and not the hunted.  They have lost that.  The rape and juvenile pregnancy stories will continue to emerge from the woodwork, and the right will be blamed for every one of them.  They own it.  They asked for it for 50 years.  This is the kind of thing that allows a Democratic Party to cling to life in midterms, even with a president that is by all definitions a failure.  

It just sucks that it's gonna be gallons of blood spilled for no real reason before this gets overturned (if it ever does again). I'm sure some will say 'God's will' or whatever other BS they can conjure to ignore the horror of the piles of bodies, but that excuse only lasts until it happens to them.

My only genuine hope is that this rallies the voting base and we actually start voting for real candidates instead of buzzword spin-and-speak toys wearing a human guise.

[samhain]

(07-02-2022, 08:44 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: It just sucks that it's gonna be gallons of blood spilled for no real reason before this gets overturned (if it ever does again). I'm sure some will say 'God's will' or whatever other BS they can conjure to ignore the horror of the piles of bodies, but that excuse only lasts until it happens to them.

My only genuine hope is that this rallies the voting base and we actually start voting for real candidates instead of buzzword spin-and-speak toys wearing a human guise.

I have no idea what happens going forward.  I think a percentage of the anti-abortion right goes even more extreme.  They will seek a federal ban, prosecution of women traveling out-of-state for the procedure, and of course more absolute bans in trigger states that do not extend bans to rape, incest, and life of the mother.  I see Pence emerging as a champion for this movement.  I recall an aide saying that Trump used to make fun of him, saying that Pence would execute women for abortions if he had his way.

On the pro-choice and the left in general, I see a shift.  For years the right and center have had a free for all against the extreme left for the "woke agenda" low hanging fruit.  These self-inflicted policies have damaged the left immeasurably in terms of public perception, even chasing traditional libs from the party.  Outside of the Q folks and the most extreme MAGA aspects of the right, there's nobody easier to characterize as totally divorced from reality as the extreme left, and the right had been efficient in capitalizing on it.  

Now we get a blast from the past thrust back into the forefront of American identity politics.  The good old theocrat right is trending hard and is as visible as ever.  This is going to remind America how absolutely batshit the religious right was at their height, and also show that they never really went anywhere.  The woke crowd will now have an even more repulsive counterbalance on the right.  You think forcing 10 year olds into other states to have abortions is going to play well with anyone other than the most bible-thumping wannabe theocrat? 

I also believe that a sizable part of Republican leadership fears this outcome and will seek to tamp down the extremists.  The pragmatists won't want to alienate women as a voting block, and it will certainly have an impact at the polls.  Unfortunately, just like the moderate left, they might find that vocal nutbags are much more difficult to root out than you might expect.  They can co-opt your party and make it a laughingstock with just a couple of outliers acting the fool and feeding the fervor of the theocrat mob.  

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Now that we are 2 weeks from Roe ruling we went from R+ 7.5 to now D + 1.5 . The Supreme court is sabotaging a red wave into a more neutral environment. 1 more extreme event between now and November for Republicans and we could see a blue wave.

[Goalpost]

(07-07-2022, 11:00 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Now that we are 2 weeks from Roe ruling we went from  R+  7.5  to now D + 1.5 . The Supreme court is sabotaging a red wave into a more neutral environment. 1 more extreme event between now and November for Republicans and we could see a blue wave.

I think the abortion issue is an important event.  Not sure that any blue wave will happen though with Biden 17 points underwater.  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2022, 11:24 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I think the abortion issue is an important event.  Not sure that any blue wave will happen though with Biden 17 points underwater.  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

It's hard to have faith in the democrats, but 2020 showed a lot of red support down the ballot despite a clear disapproval of Trump. 

Maybe having 6 straight years of disapproval for the president has convinced people to remove their perception of that single person from the rest of the ballot. 

If Biden or Trump or even DeSantis win in 2024 I could see us looking at damn near 12-16 straight years of underwater approval ratings at president. 

I dont think these  guys should be universally popular, but it's clear there is big money in keeping Americans miserable. 

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(07-07-2022, 11:24 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I think the abortion issue is an important event.  Not sure that any blue wave will happen though with Biden 17 points underwater.  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

It's not like polling is skewing data Emerson has D as + 5  generic ballot in their recent polling also have Biden with a 34 percent approval rating

[SunsetBengal]

(06-30-2022, 02:06 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: How does everyone feel about Biden making a secret agreement with Mcconnell to nominate a prolife judge for a lifetime appointment. MSM is dropping the ball not asking Biden about this.

I'm not sure it was a "secret" agreement, as I kept seeing news stories about it for days.  As I understand, it was part of a negotiating compromise to get bipartisan support to pass a piece of legislation.

[Lucidus]

(07-07-2022, 11:00 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Now that we are 2 weeks from Roe ruling we went from  R+  7.5  to now D + 1.5 . The Supreme court is sabotaging a red wave into a more neutral environment. 1 more extreme event between now and November for Republicans and we could see a blue wave.

(07-07-2022, 12:14 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: It's not like polling is skewing data Emerson has D as + 5  generic ballot in their recent polling also have Biden with a 34 percent approval rating

Remember that the Court will be hearing Moore v. Harper in October.

That case will address the right wing theory of “Independent State Legislature Doctrine” -- which maintains that state courts can play no role in overseeing their legislatures in federal election matters, including challenges to process or redistricting. 

If the Court finds in favor of the North Carolina Republicans, it will mean state legislatures can do whatever they want in terms of manipulating federal elections; rendering the state’s constitution, its governor and its courts basically powerless to do anything about it.

Would the Court go this route; a very radical, extremist route? I wish I could say of course not, but considering what this Court did with Dobbs, Bruen, Kennedy, Carson, Rivas and Shinn among others this past session; I have very little confidence they'll do the right thing. I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2022, 01:35 PM)Lucidus Wrote: Remember that the Court will be hearing Moore v. Harper in October.

That case will address the right wing theory of “Independent State Legislature Doctrine” -- which maintains that state courts can play no role in overseeing their legislatures in federal election matters, including challenges to process or redistricting. 

If the Court finds in favor of the North Carolina Republicans, it will mean state legislatures can do whatever they want in terms of manipulating federal elections; rendering the state’s constitution, its governor and its courts basically powerless to do anything about it.

Would the Court go this route; a very radical, extremist route? I wish I could say of course not, but considering what this Court did with Dobbs, Bruen, Kennedy, Carson, Rivas and Shinn among others this past session; I have very little confidence they'll do the right thing. I certainly hope I'm wrong.

I don't see why this won't pass.  We seem to have opened the door to this country becoming a one party system.  

[*michaelsean*]

(07-07-2022, 11:00 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Now that we are 2 weeks from Roe ruling we went from  R+  7.5  to now D + 1.5 . The Supreme court is sabotaging a red wave into a more neutral environment. 1 more extreme event between now and November for Republicans and we could see a blue wave.

I said months ago, that Republican leadership would hate it and Democrat leadership would love it.  Behind closed doors of course.

[GMDino]

(07-07-2022, 05:10 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I said months ago, that Republican leadership would hate it and Democrat leadership would love it.  Behind closed doors of course.

I'd tend to agree that they love how it has excited the base more than anything they did has.  Even my wife, who previously had little desire to be involved in politics, partook in a march for rights after the decision.

But many of the less higher-ups didn't like it being overturned at all from what I can gather.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(07-07-2022, 05:10 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I said months ago, that Republican leadership would hate it and Democrat leadership would love it.  Behind closed doors of course.

There are polls that show this issue will not have much, if any, effect on the mid term elections.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/HHP_June2022_KeyResults.pdf


Page 44 if you want to skip right to it.  I think it will bump enthusiasm on the left, but we're a solid four months away from the elections.  If the economy goes on as it has been then I don't think abortion is going to have much impact.  We shall see.

[BFritz21]

(07-07-2022, 06:01 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: There are polls that show this issue will not have much, if any, effect on the mid term elections.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/HHP_June2022_KeyResults.pdf


Page 44 if you want to skip right to it.  I think it will bump enthusiasm on the left, but we're a solid four months away from the elections.  If the economy goes on as it has been then I don't think abortion is going to have much impact.  We shall see.

In the past, it might have, but, with how shitty Biden's doing, I don't think anybody really cares.

Let's just hope that all the women that vote Democrat in the Presidential election for no other reason than the abortion issue realize that the POS has no say in the matter anymore.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2022, 07:29 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: In the past, it might have, but, with how shitty Biden's doing, I don't think anybody really cares.

Let's just hope that all the women that vote Democrat in the Presidential election for no other reason than the abortion issue realize that the POS has no say in the matter anymore.

As I've said before, your prediction that single issue voters will vote for the side that outlawed the one thing they voted for is pretty intriguing. 


Do you think people who vote Republican because they oppose gun control would become democrats if democrats repealed the 2A?  I guess it's possible.  Im just wondering what you've heard or read to come to this notion. 

[BFritz21]

(07-07-2022, 08:00 PM)Nately120 Wrote: As I've said before, your prediction that single issue voters will vote for the side that outlawed the one thing they voted for is pretty intriguing. 


Do you think people who vote Republican because they oppose gun control would become democrats if democrats repealed the 2A?  I guess it's possible.  Im just wondering what you've heard or read to come to this notion. 

Republicans care about taxes, immigration, free market capitalism, deregulating coporations, and things like that.

I have only heard women talk about abortion as a reason they vote Democrat.

I guess wanting open borders is another policy that Democrats want but they're not nearly as passionate about it (and I haven't heard any women fight for that like they do abortion).

[guyofthetiger]

There is nothing in the Constitution that says a person has a right to an abortion and that is the Supreme Court's ruling. The states can decide if they will allow it. This will have little impact on the 2022 midterm elections IMO.

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2022, 10:23 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Republicans care about taxes, immigration, free market capitalism, deregulating coporations, and things like that.

I have only heard women talk about abortion as a reason they vote Democrat.

I guess wanting open borders is another policy that Democrats want but they're not nearly as passionate about it (and I haven't heard any women fight for that like they do abortion).

Interesting.  Can you give me a single good reason anyone would vote democrat?


Actually, I'm just more intrigued you think that people will join a side that took away the one thing they voted for.  All I cared about was abortion being legal, and you made it illegal so I guess I'll just join your side now.  Doesn't add up to me, but I clearly have met some more nuanced women than you have. 

Forgive me for prying, but where does someone meet so many women who care about nothing other than abortion?