Finally getting some legitimate analysis of Kirkpatrick's play in '15

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 05:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You may have a point except for the fact that those that "make up false claims" can point to most likely the most respected Statiscal analysis organization in the Nation to support their "false claims". Stupid PFF, falsely discrediting his good play.

No they can't.  PFF has never said that Dre gets most of his tackles chasing down guys that beat him in coverage.

(08-05-2016, 05:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: All you have is PFF is "faulty". And a second site that shows he is a mediocre CB.

I have proven that PFF rankings are faulty unless you want to claim that a player who plays fewer snaps and messes up more often is the better player.

And FO shows that Dre is a top 32 CB.  That means he is a #1 on the average NFL team.  That is not "mediocre".

[3wt]

(08-05-2016, 05:17 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree that Justin Smith was a fine run stopper and that not all of his tackles were made from chasing down players
and jumping on a pile. Hell that doesn't count for more than half a tackle anyway. But these are two completely different
players you are talking about here playing two completely different positions.

I think it is a bad comparison.

I watched Dre get beat lots last year and tackle players from behind. Also, i will say that he is very good at not letting
them in the endzone cause he is fast. I just gave him some more props, you happy Fred?

It's a fair comparison when you take into consideration that he had a bum shoulder most of the year.  I think Fred's comparison is about the way we perceive/ misperceive players.  Then we bandwagon on the perceptions and determine that the misperception is true just because everyone says it's true.   I definitely believe that happened to Justin Smith.  I'm with Fred on that.  The jury is still out on Dre though.  His shoulder is healed. 

Hopefully that was the cause of some of his problems last year, though my pretty limited perception was that Dre's major problems were bad tackling with a few cases of his just having a bad day.  But shoot, I've seen Sherman, Peterson and Revis all have bad days.  Not many of them, but they have them.

I'm really looking forward to getting a sniff of things to come against Minnesota.  There will be a lot to watch in that game and Dre will be one of them.

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 06:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1) No they can't.  PFF has never said that Dre gets most of his tackles chasing down guys that beat him in coverage.





2) I have proven that PFF rankings are faulty unless you want to claim that a player who plays fewer snaps and messes up more often is the better player.

3) And FO shows that Dre is a top 32 CB.  That means he is a #1 on the average NFL team.  That is not "mediocre".

1. Why would anyone want to pimp that? And how do you know it was Dre making the tackle? 

2. No you have only given one side of the equation, in a feeble attempt to discredit a highly regarded statistical site . Do they also reward good plays?


3. Link to them listing Dre as a top 32 CB in the NFL

[OBX Bengal]

(08-02-2016, 10:26 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: McCarron was not a first round pick, he was a fourth.  I think that most people's thought process, mine included, is why not use that first round pick on someone who will contribute and fill a position of need.  Also that fact that the team is really not getting full benefit of the rookie salaries because our guy sits the bench and is only starting to produce by the time their extension comes up.

AJ McCarron was a fifth round pick in the 2014 NFL draft.

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 06:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 1. Why would anyone want to pimp that? And how do you know it was Dre making the tackle? 

I have no idea what you mean.  the "false claims" I was talking about was that Dre only had a lot of tackles because he got beat all the time and ran down the guys who beta him.

(08-05-2016, 06:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 2. No you have only given one side of the equation, in a feeble attempt to discredit a highly regarded statistical site . Do they also reward good plays?

No one respects PFF player rankings.  They used to post some useful "objective stats", but they don't do that anymore.  Their rankings a joke to people who understand how they are calculated.

(08-05-2016, 06:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 3. Link to them listing Dre as a top 32 CB in the NFL

#18 in yards allowed per target
#19 to #24 in completion percentage allowed
#32 in success rate

They don't give an overall ranking, but based on those stats, but it is clear that Dre is a top 32 CB in coverage.  His tackling is poor, but he is still not in the bottom 20 in average YAC allowed.

Now show your link to them saying that he is just "mediocre".

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1) I have no idea what you mean.  the "false claims" I was talking about was that Dre only had a lot of tackles because he got beat all the time and ran down the guys who beta him.



2) No one respects PFF player rankings.  They used to post some useful "objective stats", but they don't do that anymore.  Their rankings a joke to people who understand how they are calculated.


3) #18 in yards allowed per target
#19 to #24 in completion percentage allowed
#32 in success rate

They don't give an overall ranking, but based on those stats, but it is clear that Dre is a top 32 CB in coverage.  His tackling is poor, but he is still not in the bottom 20 in average YAC allowed.

Now show your link to them saying that he is just "mediocre".

1. Makes sense that's why I asked who would pimp that.

2. This is like your opinion and at least you believe it, so that's all that matters to you. I will keep your opinion of PFF's ranking in mind for future reference. 

3. So no link to them naming him a top 32 CB in the NFL. 

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 07:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: 3. So no link to them naming him a top 32 CB in the NFL. 

No, but links showing that he was top 32 in all the coverage stats.  

So how do you explain your claim that they said he was just "mediocre"?

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 07:10 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No, but links showing that he was top 32 in all the coverage stats.  

So how do you explain your claim that they said he was just "mediocre"?

Who the hell said that was all the coverage stats?

Are passes defended a coverage stat, are interceptions a coverage stat? 

How about Defensive holding, Pass Interference, illegal contact penalties, illegal use of hands (Dre had 12)? Matter of fact he had the 4th most penalties of any player in the NFL and was flagged the 2nd most:
http://www.nflpenalties.com/all-players.php?year=2015
Did FO consider all this when they named him top 32?

What about run support; should a CB also be judged on that? I say if we judge a LB on pass coverage, we should judge a CB on tackling. FO has him top 32 in 3 specific stats ESPN I mean Football outsiders made up a formula to rate and they do not rate him as an overall CB 

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 07:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Who the hell said that was all the coverage stats?

Are passes defended a coverage stat, are interceptions a coverage stat? 

Dre was 19th in passes defended.

Thanks for reminding me.

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 07:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Dre was 19th in passes defended.

Thanks for reminding me.

Any thoughts on the penalties, INTs, or run support?

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 07:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: How about Defensive holding, Pass Interference, illegal contact penalties, illegal use of hands (Dre had 12)? Matter of fact he had the 4th most penalties of any player in the NFL and was flagged the 2nd most:
http://www.nflpenalties.com/all-players.php?year=2015
Did FO consider all this when they named him top 32?

Dre has 13 penalties and 4 of them did not involve coverage (taunting, facemask, illegal block above the waist, unnecessary roughness)

BTW 5 of the top 8 CBs in penalties were Pro Bowl players and two were All-Pro

2nd Aquib Talib....Pro Bowl last 3 straight years
5th Richard Sherman...First Team All Pro 3 times.  Pro Bowl last 4 straight years.
5th Marcus Peters....Pro Bowl this year.
7th Josh Norman.... First Team All Pro this year
7th Vontae Davis... Pro Bowl last two years

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 07:49 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Any thoughts on the  INTs ?

Already addressed this.  INterceptions are not that indicative of how great a CB is.

The best CB in the league, Patrick Peterson, only had 2 last year.  22 CBs had more interceptions than him.

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 07:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Dre has 13 penalties and 4 of them did not involve coverage (taunting, facemask, illegal block above the waist, unnecessary roughness)

BTW 5 of the top 8 CBs in penalties were Pro Bowl players and two were All-Pro

2nd Aquib Talib....Pro Bowl last 3 straight years
5th Richard Sherman...First Team All Pro 3 times.  Pro Bowl last 4 straight years.
5th Marcus Peters....Pro Bowl this year.
7th Josh Norman.... First Team All Pro this year
7th Vontae Davis... Pro Bowl last two years

So by Fred Logic Penalties are a good thing. I think you tried this before and we found it just as amusing then. 

Here's the deal:

Dre Kirkpatrick is average in pass coverage
Dre Kirkpatrick is poor in run support
Dre Kirkpatrick in the worst in the league at creating turnovers
Dre Kirkpatrick is the worst CB in the NFL in penalties committed
PFF rates him as the 3rd worst CB in the NFL (of those that qualified)

Yet somehow this leaves Fred Toast to assert he is a top 20 (amended to top 32 once even he saw how silly that was) in the NFL. 

I put him currently as mediocre (of ordinary quality; neither bad or good). 

One of us is right, the other is just trying real hard.  We'll let folks decide. 

[Bengalholic]

This thread reminded me of the classic quote from Vin Scully - "Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination".

[*bfine32*]

(08-05-2016, 09:28 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: This thread reminded me of the classic quote from Vin Scully - "Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination".

Totally agree.  That's why I found the title of the thread amusing. Folks can make a stat say anything they want it to. IMO Dre's performance to date has been overall poor with a few glimpses of hope. I hope it clicks this year, but to date I cannot consider him one of the better CBs in the NFL. His career has pretty much been equal to Morris Claiborne's to date. 

[jeremydc]

(08-05-2016, 09:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: So by Fred Logic Penalties are a good thing. I think you tried this before and we found it just as amusing then. 

Here's the deal:

Dre Kirkpatrick is average in pass coverage
Dre Kirkpatrick is poor in run support
Dre Kirkpatrick in the worst in the league at creating turnovers
Dre Kirkpatrick is the worst CB in the NFL in penalties committed
PFF rates him as the 3rd worst CB in the NFL (of those that qualified)

Yet somehow this leaves Fred Toast to assert he is a top 20 (amended to top 32 once even he saw how silly that was) in the NFL. 

I put him currently as mediocre (of ordinary quality; neither bad or good). 

One of us is right, the other is just trying real hard.  We'll let folks decide. 

I knew he was mediocre at best but damn.

[fredtoast]

(08-05-2016, 09:13 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Here's the deal:

Dre Kirkpatrick is average in pass coverage

Here is the deal.

I'll take stats over your opinion any day.  You simply don't have any credentials that give your opinion any weight.

[*bfine32*]

(08-03-2016, 08:49 AM)fredtoast Wrote: "Legit" meaning actually based on statistical analysis instead of "opinion" or PFF's highly flawed ranking system.

(08-07-2016, 09:38 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You simply don't have any credentials that give your opinion any weight.

What he said.

F.O. manipulates stats every bit as much as PFF. Your only "go to" is something about fewer games and more mistakes (whatever you consider mistakes). While you fail to answer do they also consider the good plays?

Like I said; roll with what you got. Folks can read.

[fredtoast]

(08-07-2016, 12:25 PM)bfine32 Wrote: F.O. manipulates stats every bit as much as PFF. Your only "go to" is something about fewer games and more mistakes (whatever you consider mistakes). While you fail to answer do they also consider the good plays?

Yes they also consider good plays.  And it is possible that a player could make a good play more often, but be ranked lower if he plays fewer snaps.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(08-05-2016, 09:36 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Totally agree.  That's why I found the title of the thread amusing. Folks can make a stat say anything they want it to. IMO Dre's performance to date has been overall poor with a few glimpses of hope. I hope it clicks this year, but to date I cannot consider him one of the better CBs in the NFL. His career has pretty much been equal to Morris Claiborne's to date. 

So.......since PFF now sucks, does this mean that our O line and Piano Man are vastly overrated?  I'm confused.....