Insider information: Things I think I know heading in to the first day of the draft

[*SHRacerX*]

Here is what I have learned.  

The Bengals agree that Ross is a dynamic playmaker and they aren't concerned with his medicals.  He could be our pick at #9.  That isn't just wishful thinking by me, as he is my hope for our first pick.  They feel that NFL teams would have to play two deep safeties, which would open up the running game.  This last worked when they had Henry (how many times have we said that here!) and it allowed for Rudi's 1400 yard season.


All of the Bengals TEs were injured last year, and injured significantly.  Some played through the injuries, some could not.  They are still very high on Kroft, Uzomah, Hewitt, and Eifert.  They agree that Howard is a great prospect, but when pressed, they may lean towards the player in Ross as he does more to open up the running game by keeping the safeties back.  

They like the production of Derek Barnett, but are disappointed with his speed.  They don't think that he will be their top 10 pick.  

The backup guard Alex Redmond, from UCLA, has impressed the Bengals quite a bit.  He apparently didn't have the same strength training program in college and has put on nearly 20 lbs and has really impressed them with his improvement.  Andre Smith may actually be more of a backup to Fisher at RT, should Ced struggle and Fisher moves to the left side.  The competition at RG could be Westerman vs. Redmond, and they really, really like Redmond.  

More on Ced:  they feel they did him a tremendous disservice by moving him to RT.  They feel there is no way he won't be ready to be an excellent LT this year.  He has added strength, if fully healthy, and they believe that if he was being drafted in this year's draft class, he would undoubtedly be the first offensive lineman taken.

They feel that there will be excellent choices at RB, but I felt a certain interest in Donta Foreman.  They likely won't be taking one of them very early.  

They like Jordan Willis, but don't love him.  They feel he will be overdrafted because of the speed he ran at the combine but that his speed didn't translate to his playing speed.  I emphasized the difference in his "get off" on film on obvious pass rushing downs, where (as a LDE) he didn't have to worry about a RB assignment as a read-option.

They are REALLY high on Billings, WJIII, and Clayton Fedjelum.  They think all three will be significant contributors this year.  

I didn't get anything specific about AJM, but I will surmise that they will keep him as insurance to Dalton having an injury.  They feel so strongly about a lot of their roster that they don't have to deal AJM and get a specific position that can't be addressed with their draft picks.

I'm personally still hopeful they can trade him to Cleveland for #33 overall and get another stud LB to go with their current crop.  That is one of the only positions where I see the depth as really thin, other than Tackle and RB.  

That's all I've got, folks.  Here's to a draft that we look back on and remember as the one that started the Championship run!!!

[*SHRacerX*]

I forgot to add that they are very high on Dalton and thought he did a great job despite the line issues and injuries all around him. They are very excited for what they feel he can accomplish this season.

[CJD]

I think I could live with Ross at 9.

It would feel like a wasted opportunity to trade down because we would almost certainly still be able to nab him in the middle of the round, but I understand that trading down requires a second team and there may not be anyone willing to trade up at that spot.

If the Bengals are confident that Ross makes their offense exponentially better, then I'm on board.

Now, if we could trade down to 16 or 17 and still get him, that would just be incredible.

...But we won't haha.

[Bengalbug]

(04-26-2017, 08:24 AM)OCrazyjdawg Wrote: I think I could live with Ross at 9.

It would feel like a wasted opportunity to trade down because we would almost certainly still be able to nab him in the middle of the round, but I understand that trading down requires a second team and there may not be anyone willing to trade up at that spot.

If the Bengals are confident that Ross makes their offense exponentially better, then I'm on board.

Now, if we could trade down to 16 or 17 and still get him, that would just be incredible.

...But we won't haha.

I think 16/17 could be too low.  

honestly with the bills and saints right behind the bengals flipping with the Browns might not even work.  

Everyone assumes he saints will go with defense but with them losing graham and cooks in recent years they need some playmakers.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-26-2017, 08:24 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think I could live with Ross at 9.

It would feel like a wasted opportunity to trade down because we would almost certainly still be able to nab him in the middle of the round, but I understand that trading down requires a second team and there may not be anyone willing to trade up at that spot.

If the Bengals are confident that Ross makes their offense exponentially better, then I'm on board.

Now, if we could trade down to 16 or 17 and still get him, that would just be incredible.

...But we won't haha.

It seems that the way this draft is set up with a ton of really good players, but not a lot of elites, that accumulating picks is the way to go.  Like you said, however, almost every team is looking for the same thing and many won't offer much to move up.  

My dream is they get Ross, trade AJM for the #33 pick, and then get lucky with a player like Tak McKinley as an outside speed rusher.  Then, with their actual pick in the 2nd round, they can sit back and see what player falls to them.  Obi Melifonwu?  Dalvin cook?  Cam Robinson?  Someone is going to slide.  Always happens.  And without huge pressing needs after getting Ross and McKinley, they can look for playmakers at almost any position.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-26-2017, 08:33 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: I think 16/17 could be too low.  

honestly with the bills and saints right behind the bengals flipping with the Browns might not even work.  

Everyone assumes he saints will go with defense but with them losing graham and cooks in recent years they need some playmakers.

Agreed.  I actually think the Bills could even be interested right behind us.  

[CJD]

(04-26-2017, 08:42 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: It seems that the way this draft is set up with a ton of really good players, but not a lot of elites, that accumulating picks is the way to go.  Like you said, however, almost every team is looking for the same thing and many won't offer much to move up.  

My dream is they get Ross, trade AJM for the #33 pick, and then get lucky with a player like Tak McKinley as an outside speed rusher.  Then, with their actual pick in the 2nd round, they can sit back and see what player falls to them.  Obi Melifonwu?  Dalvin cook?  Cam Robinson?  Someone is going to slide.  Always happens.  And without huge pressing needs after getting Ross and McKinley, they can look for playmakers at almost any position.  

Yea, and that's the kicker.

Unless Allen, Thomas, Hooker, Fournette, Adams or Garrett inexplicably falls to us at 9, then we're likely looking at a pick between guys that all have an identical grade.

Here is my thinking in terms of the "classes" of prospects:

Truly Elite (A+):
Myles Garrett
Leonard Fournette
Johnathan Allen
Jamal Adams
Malik Hooker

Extremely good prospect (A):
Solomon Thomas
Marshon Lattimore
O.J. Howard
Christian McCaffrey

Very good Prospect (B+):
Reuben Foster

Good Prospect (B ):
John Ross
Mike Williams
Corey Davis
Derek Barnett
Taco Charlton
Haason Reddick
Tre'Davious White
Takkarist McKinley
Charles Harris
David Njoku
Dalvin Cook
Mitch Trubisky
Kevin King
Malik McDowell
Forrest Lamp
Cam Robinson
Ryan Ramczyk
DeShaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes


So, honestly, anyone in that B range can go between 10 and 32 and it would be a good value. I really wish we had a shot at one of the truly elite talents, but it looks like most of them will be gone by the time we get our shot at them. And, with those guys gone, the value at 9 is kind of stripped, making it a case where we can either draft a position we don't need due to value, like Marshon Lattimore, or we draft a guy we could have theoretically gotten in the middle of the round. Who goes in what order will rely entirely on the needs and preferences of the team that is on the clock.

It makes for a mighty confusing draft to decipher.

[Luvnit2]

(04-25-2017, 09:08 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Here is what I have learned.  

The Bengals agree that Ross is a dynamic playmaker and they aren't concerned with his medicals.  He could be our pick at #9.  That isn't just wishful thinking by me, as he is my hope for our first pick.  They feel that NFL teams would have to play two deep safeties, which would open up the running game.  This last worked when they had Henry (how many times have we said that here!) and it allowed for Rudi's 1400 yard season.


All of the Bengals TEs were injured last year, and injured significantly.  Some played through the injuries, some could not.  They are still very high on Kroft, Uzomah, Hewitt, and Eifert.  They agree that Howard is a great prospect, but when pressed, they may lean towards the player in Ross as he does more to open up the running game by keeping the safeties back.  

They like the production of Derek Barnett, but are disappointed with his speed.  They don't think that he will be their top 10 pick.  

The backup guard Alex Redmond, from UCLA, has impressed the Bengals quite a bit.  He apparently didn't have the same strength training program in college and has put on nearly 20 lbs and has really impressed them with his improvement.  Andre Smith may actually be more of a backup to Fisher at RT, should Ced struggle and Fisher moves to the left side.  The competition at RG could be Westerman vs. Redmond, and they really, really like Redmond.  

More on Ced:  they feel they did him a tremendous disservice by moving him to RT.  They feel there is no way he won't be ready to be an excellent LT this year.  He has added strength, if fully healthy, and they believe that if he was being drafted in this year's draft class, he would undoubtedly be the first offensive lineman taken.

They feel that there will be excellent choices at RB, but I felt a certain interest in Donta Foreman.  They likely won't be taking one of them very early.  

They like Jordan Willis, but don't love him.  They feel he will be overdrafted because of the speed he ran at the combine but that his speed didn't translate to his playing speed.  I emphasized the difference in his "get off" on film on obvious pass rushing downs, where (as a LDE) he didn't have to worry about a RB assignment as a read-option.

They are REALLY high on Billings, WJIII, and Clayton Fedjelum.  They think all three will be significant contributors this year.  

I didn't get anything specific about AJM, but I will surmise that they will keep him as insurance to Dalton having an injury.  They feel so strongly about a lot of their roster that they don't have to deal AJM and get a specific position that can't be addressed with their draft picks.

I'm personally still hopeful they can trade him to Cleveland for #33 overall and get another stud LB to go with their current crop.  That is one of the only positions where I see the depth as really thin, other than Tackle and RB.  

That's all I've got, folks.  Here's to a draft that we look back on and remember as the one that started the Championship run!!!

Nice thoughts. I am curious, who is your source as Bengals are very tight lipped about commenting on anyone on our roster.

[yang]

Ross is major intriguing buy I still can't see them drafting what is projected to be an under 6'0 slot receiver. He can line up wide simply to stretch the defense but would not catch many balls that way. I get that he creates space underneath but we can get a late round fast dude to just run downfield. Really, he is so fast and talented that he could really be the exception, but I think fast, physical pro corners will give him fits.

Who covers Howard?

Donta Foreman would not beat JHill imho. I don't get that pick unless you want to groom him for next year.

I agree on Barnett and the rest. I do think someone falls we won't be able to pass up like Thomas. I really don't know what we do if a safety falls. I'd love the pick but it is not a need in the least.

[lostpoet2]

(04-26-2017, 11:25 AM)yang Wrote: Ross is major intriguing buy I still can't see them drafting what is projected to be an under 6'0 slot receiver.  He can line up wide simply to stretch the defense but would not catch many balls that way.   I get that he creates space underneath but we can get a late round fast dude to just run downfield.    Really, he is so fast and talented that he could really be the exception, but I think fast, physical pro corners will give him fits.

I think Ross projects more as a rich man's DeSean Jackson-a short but lightning fast big play receiver.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 11:25 AM)yang Wrote: Donta Foreman would not beat JHill imho.  I don't get that pick unless you want to groom him for next year.

Foreman was one of the most productive backs in college this year. He has a very good size to speed ratio and, contrary to what some believe, has the power to pick up the tough yards. The thing you have to like about him is he is a true one cut back, he sees a hole and attacks it, past the line of scrimmage he has deceptive wiggle for a bigger back. If we got him in the 3rd or later I would be pumped.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-26-2017, 10:54 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Nice thoughts. I am curious, who is your source ad Bengals are very tight lipped about commenting on anyone on our roster.

Can't say, but if you look back to last year, I nailed WJIII, Boyd, Cody Core, and Fej

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-26-2017, 11:54 AM)Au165 Wrote: Foreman was one of the most productive backs in college this year. He has a very good size to speed ratio and, contrary to what some believe, has the power to pick up the tough yards. The thing you have to like about him is he is a true one cut back, he sees a hole and attacks it, past the line of scrimmage he has deceptive wiggle for a bigger back. If we got him in the 3rd or later I would be pumped.

I think that has a very good chance of happening.  My hope is Mixon gets picked before the Bengals selection in the 2nd.  I want nothing to do with him.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 11:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I think that has a very good chance of happening.  My hope is Mixon gets picked before the Bengals selection in the 2nd.  I want nothing to do with him.

If we went Ross, DE, Foreman for our draft I wouldn't hate it at all. I am not a huge Ross fan at 9, but if thats the worst thing we do I am happy.

[pulses]

(04-26-2017, 11:57 AM)Au165 Wrote: If we went Ross, DE, Foreman for our draft I wouldn't hate it at all. I am not a huge Ross fan at 9, but if thats the worst thing we do I am happy.

Ross,Kamara, Rivers??

[Big Boss]

I'm pretty flexible when it comes to running backs this year. It's a very good class.

[Au165]

(04-26-2017, 12:00 PM)pulses Wrote: Ross,Kamara, Rivers??

I am not sure who Rivers is. First name? I am not a fan of Kamara. I think it is a case where they are putting too much value in potential over production.

Edit: Never mind you mean Derek Rivers. I'd rather grab one of the more polished guys in the 2nd.

[Speedy Thomas]

Thanks, SH! If this is accurate, great news on the offensive line! And on the three defensive choices from last year. If they are seriously considering Ross at 9, they must be convinced that the upside is worth the medical red flags.

If you are anywhere close on this, I will buy your first beer at the home opener.

[Au165]

Peter King is dead set on us taking Hasson Reddick and it scares the shit out of me. I think the guy could be good, but I am not sure he is going to play MLB in a 4-3. If we plan to move Burfict to MLB maybe it works, but as a MLB Reddick at 9 would seriously bother me.

[yang]

Daniel Jeremiah's NFL mock yesterday had Ross going in the 2nd. Most have him going at 18. He might be all that and a bag of nickels too, but I still don't see him at 9. Hopefully we can trade back and nab him.

The problem there is we have 11 picks and all them will not make the team. We need more quality than quantity. Perhaps using multiple picks to move back up?