03-23-2021, 01:54 PM
(03-23-2021, 01:38 PM)yang Wrote: Look, I know you aren't seriously saying college production has no correlation to NFL success or teams could just draw names out of hat, or pick strictly off combine stats which is absurd. So teams look for statistical predictors to help with their projections. Who knows where the Bengals have Pitts, but from what we know about previous Bengals WR's they will have Chase extremely high regardless of the Burrow connection. He just grades out high in every area especially breakout age and production. Every team is going to have him rated very high. Players with this profile rarely miss.
None of this is to say Pitts won't. It's just Chase projects higher. And I think there will doubts Pitts projects as an every down X receiver.
When it comes to statistical production in college, there is no correlation to NFL success. If a QB throws for 5000 yards in college, this isn’t a strong indicator of that QB being successful in the NFL. Texas Tech and Hawaii are examples of this. A receiver with 1800 yards in a season isn’t a strong indicator of success in the NFL.
AJ Green had 848 yards in college with 9 TDs. He was 56th in the nation in yards and 32nd in touchdowns. Despite these less than stellar numbers comparatively, he went #4 overall and has had a stellar NFL career. This is because of the traits and abilities he possessed. Michael Crabtree had 1962 yards in 2007. Despite this, he has went over 1000 yards only twice in his career. Trevor Insley had 2060 yards in 1999. He was undrafted and had less than 200 yards for his NFL career.
There is no correlation of college productions predicting NFL success. The abilities they show while producing those stats, mediocre or spectacular, is what matters and that’s why being successful at drafting is pretty difficult.
