You CAN'T "always get a starter" in the 3rd or 4th round.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

Exactly.
3rd and 4th round are best used as rotational pieces who may need a couple years to develop toward becoming a full-time starter.
1st and 2nd round (especially Top 50 picks) are the ones we should expect to start.
Anything Rd 5 and later I just basically consider depth or ST and maybe one day they'll become a starter, but not counting on it.