04-02-2021, 12:29 PM
Yeah, I think Det is thinking WR (just lost Golladay). I doubt they go QB. QB teams below us are Carolina, Denver, and NE.
For me, I'd have 3 guiding principles about trading down:
1) I still want to walk away with one of Sewell, Pitts, or Chase.
This means if I trade way down, say with NE at #15, the haul has to be big enough to enable me to do what Miami did, trade back up into the top 7/8 to get one of our top 3.
Detroit at 7 being the likely only trade up target. If QBs go 1-3 and we trade out at #5 to a QB team & then back up to #7, at least one of the 3 will be there. Falcons at 4 and Dolphins at 6 are the non-QBs.
If QBs go 1-4, and we trade out at #5, I'd be willing to go down to #8 with Carolina. This means someone really likes Mac Jones.
2) I won't make either deal until I am sure I can still land Chase/Pitts/ Sewell. For the up/down deal until I am sure QBs are going 1-3. Which means after the Jets pick or trade Darnold. For the down to 8 deal, it would be after the Falcons pick.
3) I want to net significant draft capital out of it. Future 1st ir 2nd plus current 2nd or 3rd is likely the haul I need.
I want enough to move back into the late first (teens or 20s) this year and still have an extra round 1-3 pick. Losing the chance for my pick of the top 3 has to be compensated. And I do not want to wait helplessly if a run on WR/OL leaves the position drained at 38. I want to have ammunition to move up and get a guy I really like late 1st. If I take Chase/Pitts first, then I want ammo to go get Vera-Tucker or a slipping Darrishaw. If we pick Sewell first, then Bateman. Or if a defensive stud seems to be slipping (Parsons).
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Obviously, I'd need more from Denver or NE because I'd need to trade up with Detroit. With Carolina, I might be staying put, so I could take less.
For me, I'd have 3 guiding principles about trading down:
1) I still want to walk away with one of Sewell, Pitts, or Chase.
This means if I trade way down, say with NE at #15, the haul has to be big enough to enable me to do what Miami did, trade back up into the top 7/8 to get one of our top 3.
Detroit at 7 being the likely only trade up target. If QBs go 1-3 and we trade out at #5 to a QB team & then back up to #7, at least one of the 3 will be there. Falcons at 4 and Dolphins at 6 are the non-QBs.
If QBs go 1-4, and we trade out at #5, I'd be willing to go down to #8 with Carolina. This means someone really likes Mac Jones.
2) I won't make either deal until I am sure I can still land Chase/Pitts/ Sewell. For the up/down deal until I am sure QBs are going 1-3. Which means after the Jets pick or trade Darnold. For the down to 8 deal, it would be after the Falcons pick.
3) I want to net significant draft capital out of it. Future 1st ir 2nd plus current 2nd or 3rd is likely the haul I need.
I want enough to move back into the late first (teens or 20s) this year and still have an extra round 1-3 pick. Losing the chance for my pick of the top 3 has to be compensated. And I do not want to wait helplessly if a run on WR/OL leaves the position drained at 38. I want to have ammunition to move up and get a guy I really like late 1st. If I take Chase/Pitts first, then I want ammo to go get Vera-Tucker or a slipping Darrishaw. If we pick Sewell first, then Bateman. Or if a defensive stud seems to be slipping (Parsons).
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Obviously, I'd need more from Denver or NE because I'd need to trade up with Detroit. With Carolina, I might be staying put, so I could take less.
