Mike Greenberg on 1530 today.

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(04-20-2021, 06:21 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Well Greenberg literally is writing an essay on it and talks about all 1st round WRs.. and says specifically, the hit rate is around 25%

Feel free to listen to his interview with Mo and have Goodberry or yourself tweet him to contradict his facts.

Personally, I see no reason for Greenie to lie, the guy has a great reputation and clearly knows what he is talking about.

I've actually researched this myself. I went back to '95 and included the ~Top 10, with up to two OL per year (depending on the year). I tried to make it as relevant to our current situation as possible, basically. 

We have different definitions for hit rate and success, but there is still no comparison. I found a 71% hit rate on OL and just under 50% on WR. The hits on OL are also bigger in terms of HOF-quality, but that's admittedly a slippery slope since a lot of the data points are still active or just recently retired. 

Btw, I find Goodberry to be increasingly skilled at cherry-picking his data. I can't trust any of those guys anymore. They seem to have a horse in the race.