TeamPitts

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-28-2021, 12:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: No not really, that is why scheme matters. I pointed out yards per target because it shows how they produced when given the opportunity, not even yards per reception which requires the person to make the catch that could have added to the total. He was producing at a high level on minimal targets and the argument of "open" is a pure assumption without any context to if he was or wasn't based on the actual play on the field. 

There were 42 players last year with 100, hence why I said 100-120 targets. What does "sniff 100" mean? if it's being within 10 targets then you can add another 11 players. Funny enough Logan Thomas had 110 targets in a bad Washington offense, but before you mention it there were 3 receiving options in that offense that had 100 targets. Part of the ability to get a 100 targets is to be in an offense that throws a substantial amount of times, if he is in an offense throwing 450-485 times he is most likely going to capture 100 targets.

To use historical examples also discredits that we are discussing a guy that A. would be going higher than pretty much every other guy, so one could argue is valued higher and B. is really not like any other TE we have seen in recent year. Evan Engram is the closest comp as a receiver you mention and he had 115 targets and didn't start 4 games and didn't play in one. It is VERY likely that a healthy Kyle Pitts will get 100 targets in year 1, and I'd even be willing to place a bet on that assuming health. 

Except yards per target doesn't just show how they produced when given the opportunity, because it also is highly dependent upon 50 other factors. Like how long the offense can block (and thus how far down the field they can go), and how accurate their QB is. It's not a particularly helpful statistic.

In 2020, Kelce had 9.8 yards per target.
In 2019, Kelce had 9.0 yards per target. 
BECAUSE
In 2020, Kelce had 8.5 yards average depth per target.
In 2019, Kelce had 9.0 yards average depth per target.


Which is part of the reason why Kelce also caught 1.1% more of his targets. That is 1.1% of the targets turning from 0 yards to 13.5 yards. That could just be the difference between a game in one year where it rained and so there were 2 passes that were uncatchably errant. It's a silly statistic to choose as a standalone for productivity.

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Logan Thomas had 110 targets in his 7th NFL season. You said rookie season.

Those 4 games Engram didn't start? He still played at least 77% of the offensive snaps in each of them, which is absolutely a starter's workload. Once again, that was a 3-13 team with 0 750yd receivers and the #2 was a 400 yard guy who was out of the league after that year. 

I will gladly make a sig bet with you that Pitts doesn't get 100 regular season targets his rookie season. I'll even give you a health-out in it.

Bet: Pitts Reaches 100 Regular Season Targets As A Rookie
Payout: "The genius *Insert Victor's Name Here* was right about Pitts and the idiot *Insert Loser's Name Here* was wrong." (First line, centered text in your sig, no quotation marks.)
Payout Date: Monday after the final week of 2021 regular season.
Payout Duration: Until Bengals first game of 2022 regular season
Void Condition: Pitts misses 4+ games with injury or illness. (Healthy Scratches/Suspensions do not count towards the 4.)

Deal?